TOURNAMENT
FINAL
Pool A · Feb 28, 2026
NorthStars - Fournier
4–3
IHC West - MacIsaac
UPSET
Current model vs. Result
482 games in sample
Calculated from the current model; not a stored pre-game forecast
NorthStars - Fournier 13.0%
Draw 11.4%
75.6% IHC West - MacIsaac
Favored
Draw
Underdog
Major upset
2.94 bits
Lower predicted probability means a more surprising result.
This band describes outcome probability; the UPSET badge separately identifies an upset winner.
Score Probability Matrix
Probability of each scoreline — rows = NorthStars - Fournier, columns = IHC West - MacIsaac.
Scores of 0–7 cover 100.0% of outcomes.