TOURNAMENT
ELIMINATION
FINAL
Semifinal 1 · Mar 07, 2026
Top Gun
0–5
Minuteman Flames
Current model vs. Result
228 games in sample
Calculated from the current model; not a stored pre-game forecast
Top Gun 18.8%
81.2% Minuteman Flames
Favored
Underdog
As expected
0.30 bits
Lower predicted probability means a more surprising result.
This band describes outcome probability; the UPSET badge separately identifies an upset winner.
Score Probability Matrix
Probability of each scoreline — rows = Top Gun, columns = Minuteman Flames.
Scores of 0–7 cover 100.0% of outcomes.