TOURNAMENT
FINAL
Pool A · Feb 28, 2026
Spartans - Flood
1–5
IHC West - Carchia
Current model vs. Result
240 games in sample
Calculated from the current model; not a stored pre-game forecast
Spartans - Flood 24.1%
Draw 11.8%
64.0% IHC West - Carchia
Favored
Draw
Underdog
As expected
0.64 bits
Lower predicted probability means a more surprising result.
This band describes outcome probability; the UPSET badge separately identifies an upset winner.
Score Probability Matrix
Probability of each scoreline — rows = Spartans - Flood, columns = IHC West - Carchia.
Scores of 0–7 cover 100.0% of outcomes.