TOURNAMENT
FINAL
Pool A · Feb 28, 2026
Spartans - Flood
3–4
NorthStars - Tuccio
Current model vs. Result
240 games in sample
Calculated from the current model; not a stored pre-game forecast
Spartans - Flood 18.4%
Draw 11.9%
69.7% NorthStars - Tuccio
Favored
Draw
Underdog
As expected
0.52 bits
Lower predicted probability means a more surprising result.
This band describes outcome probability; the UPSET badge separately identifies an upset winner.
Score Probability Matrix
Probability of each scoreline — rows = Spartans - Flood, columns = NorthStars - Tuccio.
Scores of 0–7 cover 100.0% of outcomes.