TOURNAMENT
FINAL
Pool A · Feb 28, 2026
Shamrocks - Casey
3–7
Manchester Flames - Legro
Current model vs. Result
447 games in sample
Calculated from the current model; not a stored pre-game forecast
Shamrocks - Casey 17.8%
Draw 11.9%
70.4% Manchester Flames - Legro
Favored
Draw
Underdog
As expected
0.51 bits
Lower predicted probability means a more surprising result.
This band describes outcome probability; the UPSET badge separately identifies an upset winner.
Score Probability Matrix
Probability of each scoreline — rows = Shamrocks - Casey, columns = Manchester Flames - Legro.
Scores of 0–7 cover 100.0% of outcomes.