League Insights
What 5,100+ games and 28 divisions tell us about how youth hockey changes as kids grow up — from 2018s through 2012s.
Power Play Evolution by Age
The power play becomes nearly three times as important as kids get older. For 2018s, barely 1 in 18 goals comes on the PP. By 2013, it's about 1 in 6.
For 2018s, a power play barely matters — under 6% of goals. By 2013, it's nearly triple that share. Interestingly, kids convert at similar rates (14-16%) at every birth year except 2018 (10.5%). The real difference? Older kids take more penalties, creating more chances. Special teams coaching pays off more as kids mature.
Discipline and Physicality
Penalty minutes per game increase steadily with age as players get bigger, faster, and more physical.
Don't panic if penalty minutes go up as your kid ages — it's the league-wide trend. From 6.8 PIM/game for 2018s to 14.8 for 2013s, penalties more than double. Players get stronger, check harder, and compete more physically. 2012s actually dip slightly, suggesting the oldest players learn discipline.
Scoring by Age and Tier
Games get tighter as kids get older and as the competition level rises. Both age and tier compress scoring.
| Elite | Platinum | Upper Gold | Gold | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 8.4 | — |
| 2017 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 10.6 | 9.8 |
| 2016 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 9.2 |
| 2015 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 8.5 |
| 2014 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 9.5 |
| 2013 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 8.2 |
| 2012 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 7.5 |
Read across any row to see the tier effect: Gold divisions consistently score 1-3 more goals per game than Elite at the same birth year. Read down any column to see the age effect: scoring compresses as kids get older. The tightest games? 2012 Platinum at 5.8 goals/game. The wildest? 2017 Elite and Upper Gold at 10.6.
Tier Effect on Special Teams
At the same age, higher-tier divisions see a bigger share of goals coming on the power play. Better players exploit the man advantage more effectively.
At the Elite level, special teams matter more — 12.6% of goals vs. 7.9% at Gold, same birth year. Higher-skilled players are better at moving the puck on the power play and exploiting the extra space. If your kid is moving up a tier, expect special teams to play a bigger role in game outcomes.
Do Penalties Predict Winners?
We tested whether adding power play % and penalty minutes to our prediction model would improve accuracy. The answer? No.
A good power play means more goals — and our model already sees those goals. Adding PP% as a separate input is double-counting. There IS an interesting wrinkle though: teams with a high PP% score more against physical, high-PIM opponents (more power play chances). But those physical teams also suppress even-strength scoring, which cancels it out. The final score already captures everything.