TOURNAMENT
ELIMINATION
FINAL
Semifinal 1 · Mar 07, 2026
Top Gun - Rome
0–5
Northern Cyclones - Bartlett
Current model vs. Result
202 games in sample
Calculated from the current model; not a stored pre-game forecast
Top Gun - Rome 57.7%
42.3% Northern Cyclones - Bartlett
Favored
Underdog
As expected
1.24 bits
Lower predicted probability means a more surprising result.
This band describes outcome probability; the UPSET badge separately identifies an upset winner.
Score Probability Matrix
Probability of each scoreline — rows = Top Gun - Rome, columns = Northern Cyclones - Bartlett.
Scores of 0–7 cover 100.0% of outcomes.