The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 NorthStars - Oram 35 20 9 6 138 95 46 10%
2 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 34 19 7 8 155 92 46 0%
3 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 36 20 11 5 156 117 45 47%
4 Spartans - Healey 31 16 4 11 110 69 43 17%
5 Minuteman Flames - Hayes 35 17 13 5 110 110 39 12%
6 Top Gun - Rome 28 16 10 2 101 71 34 14%
7 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 35 13 18 4 109 126 30 0%
8 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 34 10 20 4 90 137 24 0%
9 South Shore Kings - Lavery 34 9 23 2 75 129 20 —
10 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 34 3 28 3 89 187 9 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Spartans - Healey 1 (1–3) 72% 49 (47–51)
2 NorthStars - Oram 2 (1–3) 14% 47 (46–48)
3 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 3 (1–3) 14% 47 (46–48)
4 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 4 <1% 45 (45–45)
5 Minuteman Flames - Hayes 5 <1% 39 (39–39)
6 Top Gun - Rome 6 <1% 35 (34–36)
7 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 7 <1% 30 (30–30)
8 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 8 <1% 24 (24–26)
9 South Shore Kings - Lavery 9 <1% 20 (20–22)
10 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 10 <1% 9 (9–10)

Game Log

Oldest first
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 01 NorthStars - Oram @ Top Gun - Rome Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Spartans - Healey Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Spartans - Healey Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Spartans - Healey @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Spartans - Healey Upcoming 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 2–6 50/50 —
Sep 06 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 6–3 50/50 —
Sep 06 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 0–6 50/50 —
Sep 07 NorthStars - Oram @ Spartans - Healey 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 07 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 3–2 50/50 —
Sep 13 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 0–6 50/50 —
Sep 13 NorthStars - Oram @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 3–7 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 4–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Spartans - Healey 1–2 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Spartans - Healey 2–4 50/50 —
Sep 14 NorthStars - Oram @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 5–5 50/50 —
Sep 14 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 2–4 50/50 —
Sep 20 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 6–1 50/50 —
Sep 20 NorthStars - Oram @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 5–1
39% 46%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.37
Sep 20 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 4–2 50/50 —
Sep 20 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Spartans - Healey 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 21 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 5–3
30% 55%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.74
Sep 21 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ NorthStars - Oram 1–3
70% 18%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
2.46
Sep 21 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 3–5 50/50 —
Sep 27 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Spartans - Healey 1–9
24% 60%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.74
Sep 27 NorthStars - Oram @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 8–3
71% 17%
0.49
Sep 27 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 5–1
37% 47%
1.42
Sep 28 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ NorthStars - Oram 1–7
15% 75%
0.42
Sep 28 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Spartans - Healey 4–4
6% 88%
4.05 UPSET
Sep 28 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 3–2
28% 57%
1.81
Oct 04 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 1–5
14% 75%
0.42
Oct 04 NorthStars - Oram @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 5–0
77% 13%
0.38
Oct 04 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Spartans - Healey 5–2
9% 83%
3.53 UPSET
Oct 05 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 4–2
6% 86%
3.95 UPSET
Oct 05 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 6–2
44% 41%
1.18
Oct 05 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 6–4
53% 33%
0.91
Oct 11 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 2–4
35% 48%
1.05
Oct 12 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 4–3
17% 72%
2.57 UPSET
Oct 12 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–6
23% 63%
0.66
Oct 18 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 4–1
32% 52%
1.62
Oct 18 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 3–3
32% 52%
2.65 UPSET
Oct 18 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 2–0
40% 44%
1.32
Oct 19 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 1–6
6% 87%
0.20
Oct 19 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ NorthStars - Oram 1–4
16% 72%
0.47
Oct 25 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 1–3
35% 48%
1.07
Oct 26 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 4–2
27% 58%
1.87
Nov 01 NorthStars - Oram @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 4–5
40% 43%
1.20
Nov 01 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 5–0
67% 20%
0.58
Nov 01 NorthStars - Oram @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–6
42% 42%
1.23
Nov 01 Spartans - Healey @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 2–0
67% 19%
0.59
Nov 02 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ NorthStars - Oram 0–3
13% 76%
0.39
Nov 02 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 4–4
40% 43%
2.64
Nov 02 Spartans - Healey @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 5–3
67% 20%
0.57
Nov 08 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 3–5
12% 78%
0.36
Nov 08 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ NorthStars - Oram 1–2
18% 69%
0.53
Nov 08 Spartans - Healey @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 3–2
29% 56%
1.80
Nov 08 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 4–2
43% 41%
1.21
Nov 09 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 7–1
67% 20%
0.59
Nov 09 Top Gun - Rome @ Spartans - Healey 5–2 50/50 —
Nov 09 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ NorthStars - Oram 1–6
6% 88%
0.19
Nov 15 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 0–2
28% 59%
0.75
Nov 15 Spartans - Healey @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 3–1
30% 54%
1.74
Nov 15 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–5
12% 78%
0.36
Nov 16 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 3–4
8% 84%
0.25
Nov 16 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 7–0
68% 19%
0.57
Nov 16 Spartans - Healey @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 9–2
81% 10%
0.31
Nov 22 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–4
40% 45%
1.17
Nov 22 NorthStars - Oram @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 4–2
73% 15%
0.46
Nov 22 Spartans - Healey @ Top Gun - Rome 2–2 50/50 —
Nov 22 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 2–1
38% 45%
1.39
Nov 23 Top Gun - Rome @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 2–5 50/50 —
Nov 23 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–6
9% 82%
0.29
Nov 23 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 4–3
54% 31%
0.89
Nov 23 Spartans - Healey @ NorthStars - Oram 5–6
37% 46%
1.13
Nov 29 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 4–4
8% 84%
3.73 UPSET
Nov 29 Top Gun - Rome @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 4–2
65% 20%
0.63
Nov 29 NorthStars - Oram @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 2–2
74% 15%
3.08 UPSET
Nov 29 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 8–5
90% 5%
0.16
Nov 30 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 4–4
75% 14%
3.18 UPSET
Nov 30 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Top Gun - Rome 1–7
17% 69%
0.53
Nov 30 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 6–2
44% 39%
1.20
Nov 30 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ NorthStars - Oram 4–5
5% 90%
0.16
Dec 06 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 6–5
76% 14%
0.40
Dec 06 Spartans - Healey @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 2–2
84% 9%
3.71 UPSET
Dec 06 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 4–0
76% 13%
0.39
Dec 06 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ NorthStars - Oram 4–2
17% 71%
2.56 UPSET
Dec 07 Spartans - Healey @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 4–2
34% 51%
1.57
Dec 07 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 4–5
16% 73%
0.45
Dec 07 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 1–2
34% 50%
0.99
Dec 07 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Top Gun - Rome 3–1
13% 76%
2.92 UPSET
Dec 13 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Top Gun - Rome 0–4
23% 64%
0.65
Dec 13 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 4–7
5% 90%
0.15
Dec 13 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ NorthStars - Oram 7–4
46% 38%
1.10
Dec 13 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 3–7
30% 53%
0.92
Dec 13 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Spartans - Healey 0–7
12% 76%
0.39
Dec 14 Top Gun - Rome @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 3–2
82% 10%
0.28
Dec 14 NorthStars - Oram @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 3–2
61% 26%
0.72
Dec 14 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 11–2
42% 43%
1.26
Dec 14 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 1–0
55% 28%
0.86
Dec 14 Spartans - Healey @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 3–3
76% 13%
3.19 UPSET
Dec 20 Spartans - Healey @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 2–2
65% 21%
2.91 UPSET
Dec 20 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 10–3
82% 10%
0.29
Dec 20 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 2–8
22% 65%
0.63
Dec 20 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 4–3
10% 80%
3.28 UPSET
Dec 20 NorthStars - Oram @ Top Gun - Rome 3–5
36% 48%
1.07
Dec 21 Top Gun - Rome @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 0–2
44% 40%
1.31
Dec 21 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 3–4
37% 47%
1.09
Dec 21 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 1–2
40% 42%
1.24
Dec 27 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 8–3
46% 39%
1.13
Dec 27 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Top Gun - Rome 1–4
14% 74%
0.43
Dec 27 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 6–2
75% 14%
0.41
Dec 28 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Top Gun - Rome 1–4
50% 34%
1.56
Dec 28 Spartans - Healey @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 2–2
73% 14%
3.03 UPSET
Dec 28 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 3–11
29% 57%
0.81
Jan 03 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 1–4
2% 95%
0.07
Jan 03 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 5–2
36% 49%
1.48
Jan 03 NorthStars - Oram @ Spartans - Healey 2–2
34% 50%
2.67 UPSET
Jan 03 Top Gun - Rome @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 6–1
72% 16%
0.47
Jan 04 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 4–2
68% 21%
0.57
Jan 04 Top Gun - Rome @ NorthStars - Oram 1–2
51% 33%
1.62
Jan 04 Spartans - Healey @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 3–0
62% 24%
0.70
Jan 10 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ NorthStars - Oram 2–2
22% 65%
2.91 UPSET
Jan 10 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 7–1
62% 25%
0.69
Jan 10 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Spartans - Healey 0–6
14% 76%
0.40
Jan 11 Spartans - Healey @ NorthStars - Oram 6–3
48% 36%
1.07
Jan 11 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 4–1
88% 6%
0.18
Jan 11 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 7–4
81% 10%
0.30
Jan 11 Top Gun - Rome @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 1–3
66% 20%
2.33
Jan 11 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 3–3
49% 36%
2.71
Jan 17 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 4–4
26% 59%
2.69 UPSET
Jan 18 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 2–2
52% 33%
2.71 UPSET
Jan 23 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Top Gun - Rome 6–5
36% 48%
1.47
Jan 24 Spartans - Healey @ Top Gun - Rome 1–5
42% 41%
1.29
Jan 24 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–9
5% 91%
0.14
Jan 24 NorthStars - Oram @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 1–4
56% 30%
1.76
Jan 24 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 3–2
50% 34%
1.00
Jan 25 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ NorthStars - Oram 1–7
17% 71%
0.49
Jan 31 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 5–1
75% 14%
0.41
Jan 31 Top Gun - Rome @ NorthStars - Oram 3–1
50% 34%
1.00
Jan 31 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 5–6
78% 12%
3.03 UPSET
Jan 31 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Spartans - Healey 0–3
21% 66%
0.61
Feb 01 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 5–2
44% 40%
1.18
Feb 01 Spartans - Healey @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 2–2
34% 51%
2.69 UPSET
Feb 01 NorthStars - Oram @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 6–1
83% 10%
0.28
Feb 01 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Top Gun - Rome 2–5
10% 80%
0.33
Feb 07 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 8–7
19% 70%
2.43
Feb 07 Top Gun - Rome @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 2–5
76% 13%
2.94 UPSET
Feb 07 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 1–2
70% 18%
2.46
Feb 08 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 3–1
70% 18%
0.51
Feb 08 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Top Gun - Rome 2–5
36% 48%
1.06
Feb 08 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 1–4
9% 84%
0.26
Feb 08 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Spartans - Healey 1–2
14% 74%
0.43
Feb 08 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ NorthStars - Oram 1–2
15% 73%
0.45
Feb 14 Top Gun - Rome @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 2–5
70% 17%
2.52 UPSET
Feb 14 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ NorthStars - Oram 1–6
45% 40%
1.30
Feb 14 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 4–5
24% 63%
0.66
Feb 14 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ NorthStars - Oram 3–3
40% 45%
2.76
Feb 15 NorthStars - Oram @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 7–4
27% 59%
1.89
Feb 15 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Top Gun - Rome 3–8
6% 88%
0.18
Feb 15 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 4–2
65% 23%
0.63
Feb 20 Top Gun - Rome @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 3–6
44% 40%
1.31
Feb 21 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Top Gun - Rome 3–3
48% 37%
2.69
Feb 21 Top Gun - Rome @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 6–1
85% 8%
0.23
Feb 21 Spartans - Healey @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 4–4
60% 25%
2.70 UPSET
Feb 21 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 3–3
12% 78%
3.42 UPSET
Feb 21 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 3–2
74% 15%
0.43
Feb 21 NorthStars - Oram @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 8–1
69% 19%
0.53
Feb 22 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 10–3
56% 28%
0.84
Feb 22 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Top Gun - Rome 4–1
18% 69%
2.46
Feb 22 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Spartans - Healey 2–4
34% 51%
0.98
Feb 22 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 5–5
91% 4%
4.53 UPSET
Feb 22 Top Gun - Rome @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 4–2
53% 31%
0.92
Feb 22 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 6–5
21% 67%
2.28