The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 NorthStars - Oram 35 20 9 6 138 95 46 12%
2 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 34 19 7 8 155 92 46 0%
3 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 36 20 11 5 156 117 45 47%
4 Spartans - Healey 31 16 4 11 110 69 43 16%
5 Minuteman Flames - Hayes 35 17 13 5 110 110 39 13%
6 Top Gun - Rome 28 16 10 2 101 71 34 13%
7 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 35 13 18 4 109 126 30 0%
8 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 34 10 20 4 90 137 24 0%
9 South Shore Kings - Lavery 34 9 23 2 75 129 20 —
10 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 34 3 28 3 89 187 9 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Spartans - Healey 1 (1–3) 74% 49 (47–51)
2 NorthStars - Oram 2 (1–3) 13% 47 (46–48)
3 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 3 (1–3) 13% 47 (46–48)
4 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 4 <1% 45 (45–45)
5 Minuteman Flames - Hayes 5 <1% 39 (39–39)
6 Top Gun - Rome 6 <1% 35 (34–36)
7 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 7 <1% 30 (30–30)
8 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 8 <1% 24 (24–26)
9 South Shore Kings - Lavery 9 <1% 20 (20–22)
10 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 10 <1% 9 (9–10)

Game Log

Oldest first
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 01 NorthStars - Oram @ Top Gun - Rome Upcoming — —
Aug 01 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Spartans - Healey Upcoming — —
Aug 01 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Spartans - Healey Upcoming — —
Aug 01 Spartans - Healey @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone Upcoming — —
Aug 01 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Spartans - Healey Upcoming — —
Sep 06 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 2–6 50/50 —
Sep 06 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 6–3 50/50 —
Sep 06 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 0–6 50/50 —
Sep 07 NorthStars - Oram @ Spartans - Healey 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 07 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 3–2 50/50 —
Sep 13 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 0–6 50/50 —
Sep 13 NorthStars - Oram @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 3–7 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 4–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Spartans - Healey 1–2 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Spartans - Healey 2–4
31% 40%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.30
Sep 14 NorthStars - Oram @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 5–5 50/50 —
Sep 14 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 2–4 50/50 —
Sep 20 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 6–1 50/50 —
Sep 20 NorthStars - Oram @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 5–1
37% 47%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.44
Sep 20 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 4–2 50/50 —
Sep 21 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Spartans - Healey 3–3
54% 20%
1.92
Sep 21 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 5–3
30% 55%
1.75
Sep 21 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ NorthStars - Oram 1–3
68% 18%
2.46
Sep 21 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 3–5
56% 26%
1.92
Sep 27 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Spartans - Healey 1–9
28% 50%
1.00
Sep 27 NorthStars - Oram @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 8–3
62% 22%
0.68
Sep 27 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 5–1
38% 46%
1.39
Sep 28 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ NorthStars - Oram 1–7
16% 73%
0.45
Sep 28 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Spartans - Healey 4–4
11% 74%
2.79 UPSET
Sep 28 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 3–2
26% 59%
1.91
Oct 04 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 1–5
14% 72%
0.47
Oct 04 NorthStars - Oram @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 5–0
71% 16%
0.49
Oct 04 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Spartans - Healey 5–2
12% 74%
3.04 UPSET
Oct 05 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 4–2
7% 82%
3.80 UPSET
Oct 05 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 6–2
43% 42%
1.23
Oct 05 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 6–4
52% 34%
0.95
Oct 11 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 2–4
35% 46%
1.11
Oct 12 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 4–3
16% 73%
2.65 UPSET
Oct 12 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–6
23% 64%
0.65
Oct 18 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 4–1
33% 50%
1.59
Oct 18 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 3–3
31% 52%
2.58 UPSET
Oct 18 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 2–0
40% 44%
1.32
Oct 19 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 1–6
7% 86%
0.23
Oct 19 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ NorthStars - Oram 1–4
16% 70%
0.51
Oct 25 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 1–3
35% 46%
1.12
Oct 26 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 4–2
27% 57%
1.88
Nov 01 NorthStars - Oram @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 4–5
39% 43%
1.22
Nov 01 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 5–0
68% 20%
0.57
Nov 01 NorthStars - Oram @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–6
42% 42%
1.25
Nov 01 Spartans - Healey @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 2–0
57% 22%
0.80
Nov 02 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ NorthStars - Oram 0–3
13% 76%
0.40
Nov 02 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 4–4
40% 44%
2.58
Nov 02 Spartans - Healey @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 5–3
62% 22%
0.70
Nov 08 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 3–5
11% 78%
0.36
Nov 08 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ NorthStars - Oram 1–2
18% 68%
0.56
Nov 09 Spartans - Healey @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 3–2
27% 55%
1.90
Nov 09 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 4–2
42% 40%
1.24
Nov 09 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 7–1
66% 20%
0.60
Nov 09 Top Gun - Rome @ Spartans - Healey 5–2 50/50 —
Nov 09 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ NorthStars - Oram 1–6
7% 86%
0.22
Nov 15 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 0–2
29% 58%
0.79
Nov 15 Spartans - Healey @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 3–1
27% 54%
1.90
Nov 15 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–5
12% 77%
0.37
Nov 16 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 3–4
8% 83%
0.27
Nov 16 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 7–0
66% 19%
0.59
Nov 16 Spartans - Healey @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 9–2
74% 13%
0.44
Nov 22 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–4
40% 44%
1.19
Nov 22 NorthStars - Oram @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 4–2
71% 15%
0.49
Nov 22 Spartans - Healey @ Top Gun - Rome 2–2 50/50 —
Nov 22 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 2–1
37% 46%
1.44
Nov 23 Top Gun - Rome @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 2–5
33% 48%
1.07
Nov 23 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–6
9% 81%
0.30
Nov 23 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 4–3
53% 30%
0.91
Nov 23 Spartans - Healey @ NorthStars - Oram 5–6
33% 47%
1.09
Nov 29 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 4–4
8% 85%
3.83 UPSET
Nov 29 Top Gun - Rome @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 4–2
61% 22%
0.71
Nov 29 NorthStars - Oram @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 2–2
72% 15%
2.94 UPSET
Nov 29 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 8–5
89% 5%
0.17
Nov 30 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 4–4
75% 13%
3.14 UPSET
Nov 30 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Top Gun - Rome 1–7
18% 66%
0.59
Nov 30 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 6–2
42% 40%
1.25
Nov 30 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ NorthStars - Oram 4–5
5% 89%
0.17
Dec 06 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 6–5
76% 14%
0.40
Dec 06 Spartans - Healey @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 2–2
78% 11%
3.22 UPSET
Dec 06 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 4–0
75% 13%
0.41
Dec 06 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ NorthStars - Oram 4–2
16% 72%
2.63 UPSET
Dec 07 Spartans - Healey @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 4–2
31% 52%
1.69
Dec 07 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 4–5
15% 74%
0.44
Dec 07 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 1–2
33% 50%
1.00
Dec 07 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Top Gun - Rome 3–1
14% 75%
2.86 UPSET
Dec 13 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Top Gun - Rome 0–4
23% 63%
0.67
Dec 13 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 4–7
5% 90%
0.15
Dec 13 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ NorthStars - Oram 7–4
46% 38%
1.13
Dec 13 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 3–7
30% 52%
0.95
Dec 13 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Spartans - Healey 0–7
14% 70%
0.52
Dec 14 Top Gun - Rome @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 3–2
80% 10%
0.32
Dec 14 NorthStars - Oram @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 3–2
61% 25%
0.71
Dec 14 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 11–2
42% 42%
1.23
Dec 14 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 1–0
54% 29%
0.89
Dec 14 Spartans - Healey @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 3–3
70% 14%
2.70 UPSET
Dec 20 Spartans - Healey @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 2–2
61% 22%
2.64 UPSET
Dec 20 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 10–3
81% 10%
0.31
Dec 20 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 2–8
22% 64%
0.64
Dec 20 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 4–3
10% 80%
3.33 UPSET
Dec 20 NorthStars - Oram @ Top Gun - Rome 3–5
36% 46%
1.12
Dec 21 Top Gun - Rome @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 0–2
44% 40%
1.33
Dec 21 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 3–4
36% 48%
1.07
Dec 21 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 1–2
39% 41%
1.30
Dec 27 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 8–3
45% 39%
1.16
Dec 27 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Top Gun - Rome 1–4
13% 72%
0.48
Dec 27 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 6–2
76% 14%
0.40
Dec 28 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Top Gun - Rome 1–4
50% 33%
1.60
Dec 28 Spartans - Healey @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 2–2
68% 15%
2.54 UPSET
Dec 28 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 3–11
29% 56%
0.83
Jan 03 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 1–4
2% 95%
0.08
Jan 03 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 5–2
35% 49%
1.52
Jan 03 NorthStars - Oram @ Spartans - Healey 2–2
36% 46%
2.41
Jan 03 Top Gun - Rome @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 6–1
70% 16%
0.51
Jan 04 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 4–2
67% 21%
0.58
Jan 04 Top Gun - Rome @ NorthStars - Oram 1–2
50% 32%
1.64
Jan 04 Spartans - Healey @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 3–0
57% 25%
0.81
Jan 10 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ NorthStars - Oram 2–2
21% 64%
2.82 UPSET
Jan 10 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 7–1
62% 24%
0.68
Jan 11 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Spartans - Healey 0–6
15% 71%
0.50
Jan 11 Spartans - Healey @ NorthStars - Oram 6–3
43% 37%
1.20
Jan 11 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 4–1
88% 6%
0.19
Jan 11 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 7–4
81% 9%
0.31
Jan 11 Top Gun - Rome @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 1–3
64% 19%
2.37
Jan 11 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 3–3
48% 36%
2.63
Jan 17 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 4–4
24% 58%
2.50
Jan 18 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 2–2
51% 32%
2.61 UPSET
Jan 24 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Top Gun - Rome 6–5
35% 47%
1.50
Jan 24 Spartans - Healey @ Top Gun - Rome 1–5
38% 40%
1.32
Jan 24 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 2–9
5% 91%
0.14
Jan 24 NorthStars - Oram @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 1–4
55% 29%
1.79
Jan 24 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 3–2
49% 33%
1.03
Jan 25 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ NorthStars - Oram 1–7
16% 70%
0.51
Jan 31 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 5–1
76% 14%
0.40
Jan 31 Top Gun - Rome @ NorthStars - Oram 3–1
48% 34%
1.05
Jan 31 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 5–6
77% 12%
3.07 UPSET
Feb 01 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Spartans - Healey 0–3
22% 61%
0.71
Feb 01 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 5–2
44% 39%
1.18
Feb 01 Spartans - Healey @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 2–2
31% 51%
2.49
Feb 01 NorthStars - Oram @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 6–1
82% 10%
0.29
Feb 01 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Top Gun - Rome 2–5
10% 78%
0.36
Feb 07 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 8–7
19% 69%
2.41
Feb 07 Top Gun - Rome @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 2–5
74% 13%
2.96 UPSET
Feb 07 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 1–2
70% 18%
2.50
Feb 08 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 3–1
70% 18%
0.52
Feb 08 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Top Gun - Rome 2–5
36% 48%
1.07
Feb 08 Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 1–4
9% 83%
0.27
Feb 08 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Spartans - Healey 1–2
15% 71%
0.50
Feb 08 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ NorthStars - Oram 1–2
14% 73%
0.46
Feb 14 Top Gun - Rome @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 2–5
70% 17%
2.57 UPSET
Feb 14 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ NorthStars - Oram 1–6
44% 41%
1.30
Feb 14 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 4–5
24% 63%
0.67
Feb 14 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ NorthStars - Oram 3–3
40% 45%
2.72
Feb 15 NorthStars - Oram @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 7–4
27% 58%
1.91
Feb 15 Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian @ Top Gun - Rome 3–8
6% 88%
0.19
Feb 15 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal 4–2
65% 22%
0.62
Feb 21 Top Gun - Rome @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 3–6
44% 40%
1.34
Feb 21 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Top Gun - Rome 3–3
47% 36%
2.58
Feb 21 Top Gun - Rome @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 6–1
85% 8%
0.24
Feb 21 Spartans - Healey @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 4–4
55% 25%
2.37
Feb 21 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Northeast Generals - Ruggiero 3–3
12% 79%
3.38 UPSET
Feb 21 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 3–2
74% 15%
0.44
Feb 21 NorthStars - Oram @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Malone 8–1
68% 18%
0.55
Feb 22 Minuteman Flames - Hayes @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 10–3
55% 27%
0.87
Feb 22 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Top Gun - Rome 4–1
18% 69%
2.52 UPSET
Feb 22 Northern Cyclones - Bartlett @ Spartans - Healey 2–4
35% 48%
1.07
Feb 22 Northeast Generals - Ruggiero @ Boston Jr. Huskies 2012 -Stepanian 5–5
91% 4%
4.44 UPSET
Feb 22 Top Gun - Rome @ Minuteman Flames - Hayes 4–2
52% 30%
0.94
Feb 22 Providence Capitals (South) - Joyal @ Northern Cyclones - Bartlett 6–5
20% 68%
2.30