The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Team Boston 2019 Elite 9 9 0 0 71 16 18 —
2 Team Merrimack 2019 Elite 9 5 3 1 34 22 11 —
3 Bay State Waves 2019 Elite 7 4 1 2 23 10 10 —
4 Young Guns 2019 Elite 9 4 3 2 21 18 10 —
5 Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan 11 4 7 0 21 51 8 —
6 South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg 7 3 2 2 18 15 8 —
7 Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet 11 2 6 3 22 36 7 —
8 MC Selects 2019 Elite 8 2 4 2 21 33 6 —
9 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite 9 1 8 0 11 41 2 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Team Boston 2019 Elite 1 100% 67 (62–70)
2 Bay State Waves 2019 Elite 2 (2–4) <1% 47 (38–54)
3 Young Guns 2019 Elite 3 (2–5) <1% 43 (35–49)
4 South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg 4 (3–6) <1% 38 (31–44)
5 Team Merrimack 2019 Elite 4 (2–7) <1% 37 (29–46)
6 Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet 6 (5–8) <1% 29 (22–35)
7 MC Selects 2019 Elite 7 (4–8) <1% 28 (20–37)
8 Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan 8 (6–9) <1% 22 (16–29)
9 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite 9 (8–9) <1% 14 (8–22)
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Sep 05 Young Guns 2019 Elite @ Team Boston 2019 Elite 4–8 50/50 —
Sep 05 Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan @ Team Merrimack 2019 Elite 0–4 50/50 —
Sep 06 Young Guns 2019 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2019 Elite 5–0 50/50 —
Sep 06 Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan @ Team Boston 2019 Elite 1–10 50/50 —
Sep 12 South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg @ Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet 4–2 50/50 —
Sep 12 Team Merrimack 2019 Elite @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite 12–2 50/50 —
Sep 12 Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan @ Bay State Waves 2019 Elite 1–8 50/50 —
Sep 13 Young Guns 2019 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan 4–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite @ Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet 4–3 50/50 —
Sep 19 Team Boston 2019 Elite @ Young Guns 2019 Elite 4–2 50/50 —
Sep 19 Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan @ MC Selects 2019 Elite 4–3 50/50 —
Sep 19 Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet @ Team Merrimack 2019 Elite 4–4 50/50 —
Sep 20 Bay State Waves 2019 Elite @ Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 20 Young Guns 2019 Elite @ South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg 0–1 50/50 —
Sep 20 Team Boston 2019 Elite @ MC Selects 2019 Elite 13–2 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan 1–5 50/50 —
Sep 26 Young Guns 2019 Elite @ Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet 1–0
63% 22%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.66
Sep 26 Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan @ Team Boston 2019 Elite 2–9
1% 98%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.03
Sep 26 Team Merrimack 2019 Elite @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite 3–0
87% 7%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.20
Sep 27 Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan @ Team Merrimack 2019 Elite 4–3
12% 79%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
3.11 UPSET
Sep 27 MC Selects 2019 Elite @ South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg 3–5 50/50 —
Sep 27 Team Boston 2019 Elite @ Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet 8–2
91% 4%
0.13
Oct 03 Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan @ Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet 1–4
31% 53%
0.91
Oct 03 Young Guns 2019 Elite @ MC Selects 2019 Elite 2–2
77% 13%
3.26 UPSET
Oct 03 Bay State Waves 2019 Elite @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite 3–0 50/50 —
Oct 03 South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg @ Team Merrimack 2019 Elite 2–3
46% 38%
1.40
Oct 04 MC Selects 2019 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2019 Elite 2–5
10% 81%
0.31
Oct 10 Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet @ Team Boston 2019 Elite 0–7
3% 94%
0.09
Oct 10 MC Selects 2019 Elite @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite 1–0
61% 25%
0.71
Oct 10 South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg @ Bay State Waves 2019 Elite 1–2
30% 54%
0.89
Oct 11 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite @ Team Boston 2019 Elite 2–8
0% 100%
0.01
Oct 11 MC Selects 2019 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan 4–0
40% 45%
1.33
Oct 17 Team Merrimack 2019 Elite @ Team Boston 2019 Elite 1–4
5% 90%
0.15
Oct 17 Bay State Waves 2019 Elite @ Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet 2–3
68% 18%
2.43
Oct 17 South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg @ MC Selects 2019 Elite 4–4
64% 22%
2.83 UPSET
Oct 17 Young Guns 2019 Elite @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite 2–1
80% 10%
0.32
Oct 18 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2019 Elite 1–4
8% 83%
0.26
Oct 18 Young Guns 2019 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2019 Elite 1–1
35% 47%
2.46
Oct 18 Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan @ Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet 2–1
22% 63%
2.15
Oct 24 Bay State Waves 2019 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2019 Elite Upcoming
46% 37%
—
Oct 24 Young Guns 2019 Elite @ MC Selects 2019 Elite Upcoming
64% 21%
—
Oct 24 South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg @ Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet 1–1
54% 30%
2.62 UPSET
Oct 25 South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg @ Bay State Waves 2019 Elite Upcoming
29% 54%
—
Oct 25 Team Merrimack 2019 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan Upcoming
74% 15%
—
Oct 31 Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet @ Team Boston 2019 Elite Upcoming
2% 95%
—
Oct 31 Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan @ Young Guns 2019 Elite Upcoming
13% 75%
—
Oct 31 Team Merrimack 2019 Elite @ MC Selects 2019 Elite Upcoming
66% 21%
—
Oct 31 South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite Upcoming
74% 14%
—
Nov 01 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite @ Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet Upcoming
19% 66%
—
Nov 01 Bay State Waves 2019 Elite @ Team Boston 2019 Elite Upcoming
11% 80%
—
Nov 01 Young Guns 2019 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2019 Elite Upcoming
42% 40%
—
Nov 01 MC Selects 2019 Elite @ South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg Upcoming
22% 64%
—
Nov 07 South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg @ Young Guns 2019 Elite Upcoming
32% 50%
—
Nov 07 Team Merrimack 2019 Elite @ Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet Upcoming
58% 26%
—
Nov 07 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite @ MC Selects 2019 Elite Upcoming
21% 65%
—
Nov 08 Young Guns 2019 Elite @ Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet Upcoming
58% 25%
—
Nov 08 Team Merrimack 2019 Elite @ South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg Upcoming
44% 39%
—
Nov 14 Team Boston 2019 Elite @ South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg Upcoming
85% 8%
—
Nov 14 Bay State Waves 2019 Elite @ Young Guns 2019 Elite Upcoming
42% 40%
—
Nov 14 Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet @ MC Selects 2019 Elite Upcoming
44% 40%
—
Nov 14 Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite Upcoming
50% 34%
—
Nov 15 Young Guns 2019 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2019 Elite Upcoming
42% 40%
—
Nov 15 Team Boston 2019 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan Upcoming
98% 1%
—
Nov 15 MC Selects 2019 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2019 Elite Upcoming
14% 74%
—
Nov 21 Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan @ MC Selects 2019 Elite Upcoming
30% 55%
—
Nov 21 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite @ South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg Upcoming
11% 78%
—
Nov 22 Team Boston 2019 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2019 Elite Upcoming
75% 14%
—
Nov 22 South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg @ MC Selects 2019 Elite Upcoming
59% 26%
—
Nov 28 Young Guns 2019 Elite @ South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg Upcoming
46% 36%
—
Nov 28 Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite Upcoming
50% 34%
—
Nov 28 Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet @ Bay State Waves 2019 Elite Upcoming
19% 67%
—
Nov 28 Team Boston 2019 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2019 Elite Upcoming
84% 9%
—
Nov 29 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite @ Young Guns 2019 Elite Upcoming
9% 80%
—
Nov 29 Team Merrimack 2019 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2019 Elite Upcoming
33% 51%
—
Nov 29 Team Boston 2019 Elite @ South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg Upcoming
85% 8%
—
Nov 29 Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet @ Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan Upcoming
53% 30%
—
Dec 05 Team Boston 2019 Elite @ MC Selects 2019 Elite Upcoming
97% 2%
—
Dec 05 Bay State Waves 2019 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan Upcoming
76% 13%
—
Dec 05 Team Merrimack 2019 Elite @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite Upcoming
81% 10%
—
Dec 06 MC Selects 2019 Elite @ Young Guns 2019 Elite Upcoming
18% 69%
—
Dec 06 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite @ South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg Upcoming
11% 78%
—
Dec 06 Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet @ Team Merrimack 2019 Elite Upcoming
22% 63%
—
Dec 06 Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan @ Team Boston 2019 Elite Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Dec 12 Team Merrimack 2019 Elite @ Team Boston 2019 Elite Upcoming
7% 87%
—
Dec 12 Bay State Waves 2019 Elite @ MC Selects 2019 Elite Upcoming
70% 17%
—
Dec 12 Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan @ Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet Upcoming
26% 58%
—
Dec 13 Bay State Waves 2019 Elite @ Team Boston 2019 Elite Upcoming
11% 80%
—
Dec 13 MC Selects 2019 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan Upcoming
50% 34%
—
Dec 13 Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet @ Young Guns 2019 Elite Upcoming
22% 62%
—
Dec 19 Young Guns 2019 Elite @ Team Boston 2019 Elite Upcoming
11% 80%
—
Dec 19 MC Selects 2019 Elite @ South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg Upcoming
22% 64%
—
Dec 19 Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite Upcoming
62% 22%
—
Dec 20 South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg @ Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet Upcoming
52% 31%
—
Dec 20 Bay State Waves 2019 Elite @ Young Guns 2019 Elite Upcoming
42% 40%
—
Dec 20 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan Upcoming
30% 54%
—
Dec 26 Team Boston 2019 Elite @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Dec 26 Bay State Waves 2019 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan Upcoming
76% 13%
—
Dec 26 Team Merrimack 2019 Elite @ South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg Upcoming
44% 39%
—
Dec 27 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2019 Elite Upcoming
7% 85%
—
Dec 27 South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg @ Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan Upcoming
67% 20%
—
Jan 02 Young Guns 2019 Elite @ MC Selects 2019 Elite Upcoming
65% 21%
—
Jan 02 South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg @ Team Boston 2019 Elite Upcoming
6% 88%
—
Jan 02 Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite Upcoming
62% 22%
—
Jan 02 Bay State Waves 2019 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2019 Elite Upcoming
46% 38%
—
Jan 03 Team Boston 2019 Elite @ Young Guns 2019 Elite Upcoming
76% 13%
—
Jan 03 Bay State Waves 2019 Elite @ South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg Upcoming
50% 33%
—
Jan 03 MC Selects 2019 Elite @ Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet Upcoming
35% 49%
—
Jan 03 Team Merrimack 2019 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan Upcoming
74% 15%
—
Jan 09 Team Boston 2019 Elite @ Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet Upcoming
93% 3%
—
Jan 09 South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg @ Team Merrimack 2019 Elite Upcoming
34% 49%
—
Jan 09 Bay State Waves 2019 Elite @ MC Selects 2019 Elite Upcoming
70% 17%
—
Jan 09 Young Guns 2019 Elite @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite Upcoming
77% 11%
—
Jan 10 MC Selects 2019 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan Upcoming
50% 34%
—
Jan 10 Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet @ South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg Upcoming
27% 56%
—
Jan 10 Team Merrimack 2019 Elite @ Young Guns 2019 Elite Upcoming
36% 46%
—
Jan 10 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite @ Team Boston 2019 Elite Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Jan 16 MC Selects 2019 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2019 Elite Upcoming
17% 71%
—
Jan 17 Team Merrimack 2019 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2019 Elite Upcoming
33% 51%
—
Jan 23 Team Boston 2019 Elite @ Young Guns 2019 Elite Upcoming
76% 13%
—
Jan 23 South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg @ Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan Upcoming
67% 20%
—
Jan 23 Bay State Waves 2019 Elite @ MC Selects 2019 Elite Upcoming
70% 17%
—
Jan 23 Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite Upcoming
62% 22%
—
Jan 24 Team Merrimack 2019 Elite @ Young Guns 2019 Elite Upcoming
36% 46%
—
Jan 24 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2019 Elite Upcoming
7% 85%
—
Jan 24 MC Selects 2019 Elite @ Team Boston 2019 Elite Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Jan 24 Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet @ South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg Upcoming
27% 56%
—
Jan 24 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2019 Elite Upcoming
7% 85%
—
Jan 30 Team Merrimack 2019 Elite @ Team Boston 2019 Elite Upcoming
7% 87%
—
Jan 30 MC Selects 2019 Elite @ Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet Upcoming
35% 49%
—
Jan 30 South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite Upcoming
74% 14%
—
Jan 31 Team Boston 2019 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan Upcoming
98% 1%
—
Jan 31 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite @ Young Guns 2019 Elite Upcoming
9% 80%
—
Jan 31 MC Selects 2019 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2019 Elite Upcoming
17% 71%
—
Jan 31 Bay State Waves 2019 Elite @ South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg Upcoming
50% 33%
—
Feb 06 Team Merrimack 2019 Elite @ Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet Upcoming
58% 26%
—
Feb 06 Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan @ South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg Upcoming
16% 71%
—
Feb 06 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite @ MC Selects 2019 Elite Upcoming
21% 65%
—
Feb 06 Young Guns 2019 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2019 Elite Upcoming
36% 46%
—
Feb 07 South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg @ Young Guns 2019 Elite Upcoming
32% 50%
—
Feb 07 Team Boston 2019 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2019 Elite Upcoming
75% 14%
—
Feb 07 Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet @ Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan Upcoming
53% 30%
—
Feb 13 Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet @ MC Selects 2019 Elite Upcoming
44% 40%
—
Feb 13 Young Guns 2019 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan Upcoming
71% 16%
—
Feb 13 Bay State Waves 2019 Elite @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite Upcoming
82% 9%
—
Feb 13 South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg @ Team Boston 2019 Elite Upcoming
6% 88%
—
Feb 14 Team Boston 2019 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2019 Elite Upcoming
84% 9%
—
Feb 14 Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet @ Young Guns 2019 Elite Upcoming
22% 62%
—
Feb 14 Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan @ Bay State Waves 2019 Elite Upcoming
10% 80%
—
Feb 20 Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan @ South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg Upcoming
16% 71%
—
Feb 20 Team Merrimack 2019 Elite @ MC Selects 2019 Elite Upcoming
66% 21%
—
Feb 20 Bay State Waves 2019 Elite @ Young Guns 2019 Elite Upcoming
42% 40%
—
Feb 20 Team Boston 2019 Elite @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Feb 21 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2019 Elite Upcoming
8% 84%
—
Feb 21 Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet @ Bay State Waves 2019 Elite Upcoming
19% 67%
—
Feb 21 MC Selects 2019 Elite @ Team Boston 2019 Elite Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Feb 27 Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan @ Young Guns 2019 Elite Upcoming
13% 75%
—
Feb 27 MC Selects 2019 Elite @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite Upcoming
61% 25%
—
Feb 27 South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg @ Bay State Waves 2019 Elite Upcoming
29% 54%
—
Feb 28 Providence 2019 Elite - Vaslet @ Team Merrimack 2019 Elite Upcoming
22% 63%
—
Feb 28 MC Selects 2019 Elite @ Young Guns 2019 Elite Upcoming
18% 69%
—
Feb 28 Team Boston 2019 Elite @ South Shore Knights 2019 Elite Hogberg Upcoming
85% 8%
—
Feb 28 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2019 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2019 Elite Hogan Upcoming
30% 54%
—