The Sheet
What is Surprisal?
Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities.
0 bits = perfectly predicted.
3+ bits = major upset.
A result is flagged as an UPSET
when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | GF | GA | PTS | Champ % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islanders Hockey Club | 37 | 33 | 0 | 4 | 230 | 36 | 70 | 89% |
| 2 | Boston Jr Eagles | 38 | 25 | 7 | 6 | 174 | 89 | 56 | 4% |
| 3 | Top Gun | 37 | 19 | 11 | 7 | 165 | 112 | 45 | 4% |
| 4 | South Shore Kings | 37 | 19 | 12 | 6 | 159 | 109 | 44 | 4% |
| 5 | Boston Jr Terriers | 38 | 11 | 19 | 8 | 96 | 174 | 30 | 0% |
| 6 | Providence Capitals - Rotz | 37 | 10 | 20 | 7 | 83 | 134 | 27 | 0% |
| 7 | Mid Fairfield | 16 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 71 | 23 | 24 | — |
| 8 | Minuteman Flames | 37 | 4 | 28 | 5 | 62 | 179 | 13 | 0% |
| 9 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite | 37 | 2 | 34 | 1 | 66 | 250 | 5 | 0% |
Projected Finish
How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.
| # | Team | Proj. Finish | Win Division | Proj. Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islanders Hockey Club | 1 | 100% | 72 (70–73) |
| 2 | Boston Jr Eagles | 2 | <1% | 57 (56–57) |
| 3 | South Shore Kings | 3 | <1% | 45 (44–45) |
| 4 | Top Gun | 4 | <1% | 44 (44–45) |
| 5 | Boston Jr Terriers | 5 | <1% | 29 (29–30) |
| 6 | Providence Capitals - Rotz | 6 (6–7) | <1% | 25 (25–27) |
| 7 | Mid Fairfield | 7 (6–7) | <1% | 24 (23–26) |
| 8 | Minuteman Flames | 8 | <1% | 12 (12–13) |
| 9 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite | 9 | <1% | 5 (5–5) |
Game Log
| Date | Matchup | Score | Pre-game Probability | Surprisal | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22 | Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite | 7–2 |
96%
|
0.06 | |
| Feb 22 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles | 2–5 |
5%
|
0.17 | |
| Feb 22 | Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite | 7–2 |
96%
|
0.06 | |
| Feb 22 | Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Rotz | 1–6 |
22%
|
0.74 | |
| Feb 22 | South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club | 2–4 |
4%
|
0.16 | |
| Feb 22 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers | 0–0 |
87%
|
3.93 | UPSET |
| Feb 22 | South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club | 0–4 |
5%
|
0.17 | |
| Feb 21 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles | 3–5 |
0%
|
0.02 | |
| Feb 21 | South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Rotz | 2–2 |
74%
|
3.04 | UPSET |
| Feb 21 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun | 8–3 |
85%
|
0.23 | |
| Feb 15 | Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles | 0–7 |
2%
|
0.09 | |
| Feb 15 | Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Top Gun | 2–2 |
10%
|
3.37 | UPSET |
| Feb 15 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite | 7–0 |
100%
|
0.00 | |
| Feb 14 | Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite | 5–4 |
54%
|
0.90 | |
| Feb 14 | Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Boston Jr Eagles | 1–4 |
6%
|
0.22 | |
| Feb 08 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun | 5–1 |
48%
|
1.07 | |
| Feb 08 | South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite | 8–3 |
96%
|
0.05 | |
| Feb 08 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames | 7–1 |
99%
|
0.02 | |
| Feb 07 | Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Islanders Hockey Club | 2–8 |
1%
|
0.04 | |
| Feb 07 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun | 0–7 |
8%
|
0.23 | |
| Feb 07 | Mid Fairfield @ Boston Jr Eagles | 4–1 |
50%
|
1.01 | |
| Feb 07 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun | 3–7 |
8%
|
0.24 | |
| Feb 07 | Mid Fairfield @ Boston Jr Eagles | 3–3 |
50%
|
2.50 | |
| Feb 07 | South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames | 5–2 |
88%
|
0.19 | |
| Feb 01 | Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Minuteman Flames | 5–0 |
50%
|
1.00 | |
| Feb 01 | Top Gun @ South Shore Kings | 6–4 |
40%
|
1.33 | |
| Feb 01 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers | 5–0 |
86%
|
0.22 | |
| Jan 31 | Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun | 0–4 |
4%
|
0.15 | |
| Jan 31 | South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles | 4–5 |
30%
|
0.86 | |
| Jan 31 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Rotz | 2–5 |
43%
|
1.37 | |
| Jan 25 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun | 7–2 |
85%
|
0.23 | |
| Jan 25 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Rotz | 2–0 |
42%
|
1.26 | |
| Jan 24 | Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings | 5–1 |
84%
|
0.25 | |
| Jan 24 | Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Top Gun | 1–5 |
9%
|
0.30 | |
| Jan 24 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames | 5–1 |
53%
|
0.92 | |
| Jan 24 | South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers | 8–2 |
78%
|
0.35 | |
| Jan 18 | Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun | 5–11 |
5%
|
0.18 | |
| Jan 17 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Minuteman Flames | 0–7 |
27%
|
0.83 | |
| Jan 11 | Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club | 2–3 |
5%
|
0.17 | |
| Jan 11 | South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Rotz | 8–3 |
74%
|
0.44 | |
| Jan 11 | Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite | 5–0 |
96%
|
0.06 | |
| Jan 04 | Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Rotz | 4–5 |
23%
|
0.83 | |
| Jan 04 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers | 7–0 |
98%
|
0.03 | |
| Jan 04 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite | 6–1 |
98%
|
0.03 | |
| Jan 03 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club | 0–10 |
1%
|
0.03 | |
| Jan 03 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames | 9–1 |
90%
|
0.15 | |
| Jan 03 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Rotz | 2–4 |
16%
|
0.48 | |
| Jan 03 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames | 6–3 |
90%
|
0.15 | |
| Dec 28 | Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings | 2–1 |
50%
|
1.00 | |
| Dec 28 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club | 0–10 |
0%
|
0.00 | |
| Dec 28 | Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers | 2–2 |
20%
|
2.70 | UPSET |
| Dec 27 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club | 1–6 |
10%
|
0.32 | |
| Dec 27 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ South Shore Kings | 2–9 |
1%
|
0.05 | |
| Dec 21 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Rotz | 9–1 |
94%
|
0.08 | |
| Dec 21 | South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames | 4–0 |
85%
|
0.23 | |
| Dec 21 | Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles | 2–5 |
31%
|
0.86 | |
| Dec 21 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Rotz | 4–2 |
95%
|
0.07 | |
| Dec 21 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite | 4–2 |
77%
|
0.38 | |
| Dec 20 | Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Boston Jr Terriers | 1–4 |
36%
|
1.13 | |
| Dec 20 | South Shore Kings @ Top Gun | 6–5 |
36%
|
1.47 | |
| Dec 20 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames | 4–0 |
98%
|
0.03 | |
| Dec 14 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club | 0–10 |
0%
|
0.00 | |
| Dec 14 | Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings | 7–1 |
45%
|
1.16 | |
| Dec 14 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun | 1–7 |
11%
|
0.32 | |
| Dec 14 | Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Minuteman Flames | 2–3 |
54%
|
2.03 | |
| Dec 13 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers | 8–2 |
97%
|
0.04 | |
| Dec 13 | Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames | 8–2 |
85%
|
0.24 | |
| Dec 13 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles | 1–7 |
1%
|
0.03 | |
| Dec 07 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles | 7–4 |
79%
|
0.34 | |
| Dec 07 | Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Boston Jr Terriers | 3–1 |
33%
|
1.59 | |
| Dec 07 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ South Shore Kings | 0–8 |
1%
|
0.05 | |
| Dec 07 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club | 3–3 |
6%
|
3.55 | UPSET |
| Dec 06 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Rotz | 8–0 |
94%
|
0.09 | |
| Dec 06 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles | 1–1 |
7%
|
4.00 | UPSET |
| Dec 06 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Top Gun | 2–12 |
2%
|
0.08 | |
| Dec 06 | South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames | 2–2 |
88%
|
3.81 | UPSET |
| Nov 30 | Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite | 4–2 |
66%
|
0.60 | |
| Nov 23 | South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite | 7–2 |
95%
|
0.07 | |
| Nov 23 | Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Top Gun | 3–3 |
13%
|
2.87 | UPSET |
| Nov 23 | Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles | 0–4 |
3%
|
0.10 | |
| Nov 22 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Rotz | 5–1 |
77%
|
0.38 | |
| Nov 22 | Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club | 0–10 |
0%
|
0.03 | |
| Nov 22 | Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings | 3–3 |
8%
|
3.81 | UPSET |
| Nov 22 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Top Gun | 1–5 |
2%
|
0.06 | |
| Nov 22 | Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings | 5–3 |
6%
|
4.12 | UPSET |
| Nov 16 | Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames | 6–1 |
81%
|
0.30 | |
| Nov 16 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ South Shore Kings | 1–8 |
1%
|
0.03 | |
| Nov 16 | Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Boston Jr Terriers | 2–2 |
41%
|
2.51 | |
| Nov 15 | Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers | 8–1 |
69%
|
0.53 | |
| Nov 15 | Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite | 1–4 |
54%
|
1.72 | |
| Nov 15 | South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club | 3–7 |
10%
|
0.35 | |
| Nov 09 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers | 2–6 |
13%
|
0.34 | |
| Nov 09 | South Shore Kings @ Mid Fairfield | 3–4 |
25%
|
0.77 | |
| Nov 09 | Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Boston Jr Eagles | 3–6 |
10%
|
0.33 | |
| Nov 09 | South Shore Kings @ Mid Fairfield | 3–3 |
23%
|
2.61 | UPSET |
| Nov 08 | Providence Capitals - Rotz @ South Shore Kings | 2–4 |
9%
|
0.31 | |
| Nov 08 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite | 6–1 |
70%
|
0.51 | |
| Nov 08 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun | 5–4 |
52%
|
0.94 | |
| Nov 02 | Mid Fairfield @ Minuteman Flames | 8–0 |
87%
|
0.20 | |
| Nov 02 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite | 10–0 |
100%
|
0.01 | |
| Nov 02 | Mid Fairfield @ Minuteman Flames | 6–3 |
86%
|
0.22 | |
| Nov 02 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun | 9–3 |
42%
|
1.25 | |
| Nov 01 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames | 3–1 |
47%
|
1.09 | |
| Nov 01 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Rotz | 4–5 |
18%
|
0.53 | |
| Nov 01 | South Shore Kings @ Top Gun | 4–5 |
53%
|
1.74 | |
| Nov 01 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club | 0–3 |
8%
|
0.27 | |
| Oct 26 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers | 9–1 |
97%
|
0.05 | |
| Oct 25 | Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club | 0–3 |
1%
|
0.06 | |
| Oct 19 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Mid Fairfield | 0–10 |
1%
|
0.04 | |
| Oct 19 | South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers | 7–2 |
85%
|
0.23 | |
| Oct 19 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Mid Fairfield | 1–11 |
3%
|
0.10 | |
| Oct 19 | Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames | 4–0 |
67%
|
0.57 | |
| Oct 18 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Minuteman Flames | 3–3 |
25%
|
2.78 | UPSET |
| Oct 18 | Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles | 3–3 |
27%
|
2.73 | UPSET |
| Oct 18 | South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Rotz | 3–1 |
78%
|
0.36 | |
| Oct 12 | Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club | 0–6 |
9%
|
0.33 | |
| Oct 12 | South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles | 4–2 |
42%
|
1.24 | |
| Oct 12 | Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite | 1–3 |
66%
|
2.28 | |
| Oct 12 | Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers | 1–5 |
44%
|
1.31 | |
| Oct 11 | Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers | 2–2 |
83%
|
3.74 | UPSET |
| Oct 11 | Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite | 5–3 |
62%
|
0.69 | |
| Oct 11 | Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Boston Jr Eagles | 2–5 |
14%
|
0.45 | |
| Oct 05 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite | 12–3 |
90%
|
0.15 | |
| Oct 04 | Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite | 4–2 |
62%
|
0.68 | |
| Sep 28 | Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Rotz | 2–2 |
71%
|
2.89 | UPSET |
| Sep 28 | Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings | 1–4 |
9%
|
0.30 | |
| Sep 28 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles | 6–2 |
67%
|
0.57 | |
| Sep 28 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers | 4–6 |
24%
|
0.63 | |
| Sep 27 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite | 11–2 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 27 | Top Gun @ Mid Fairfield | 5–2 |
19%
|
2.38 | |
| Sep 27 | Providence Capitals - Rotz @ South Shore Kings | 0–6 |
19%
|
0.59 | |
| Sep 27 | Top Gun @ Mid Fairfield | 1–3 |
20%
|
0.76 | |
| Sep 27 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club | 1–11 |
1%
|
0.05 | |
| Sep 21 | Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Islanders Hockey Club | 1–7 |
9%
|
0.40 | |
| Sep 21 | Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers | 4–4 |
36%
|
2.78 | |
| Sep 21 | Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings | 2–3 |
42%
|
1.30 | |
| Sep 20 | Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Rotz | 1–4 |
31%
|
1.08 | |
| Sep 20 | Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings | 5–1 |
59%
⚠Fewer than 20 games in training sample |
0.77 | |
| Sep 20 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers | 3–8 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 14 | Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles | 2–4 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 14 | Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings | 4–9 |
6%
⚠Fewer than 20 games in training sample |
0.20 | |
| Sep 14 | Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Rotz | 5–1 |
34%
⚠Fewer than 20 games in training sample |
1.55 | |
| Sep 14 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite | 6–1 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 13 | Top Gun @ South Shore Kings | 2–7 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 13 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Mid Fairfield | 1–7 |
6%
⚠Fewer than 20 games in training sample |
0.25 | |
| Sep 13 | Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club | 0–8 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 13 | Top Gun @ South Shore Kings | 4–4 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 13 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Mid Fairfield | 2–10 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 13 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Rotz | 5–2 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 06 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles | 3–8 | 50/50 | — | |
| Aug 01 | Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings | 0–0 | 50/50 | — | |
| Aug 01 | Mid Fairfield @ Providence Capitals - Rotz | 0–0 | 50/50 | — | |
| Aug 01 | Mid Fairfield @ Providence Capitals - Rotz | 0–0 | 50/50 | — | |
| Aug 01 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun | 0–0 | 50/50 | — | |
| Aug 01 | Mid Fairfield @ Islanders Hockey Club | 0–0 | 50/50 | — | |
| Aug 01 | Mid Fairfield @ Islanders Hockey Club | 0–0 | 50/50 | — | |
| Aug 01 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers | 0–0 | 50/50 | — |