The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 IHC 14 Elite 10 10 0 0 70 10 20 —
2 TopGun 2014 Elite 9 8 1 0 29 16 16 —
3 Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh 8 5 3 0 34 20 10 —
4 South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer 7 4 2 1 27 15 9 —
5 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 9 3 4 2 29 31 8 —
6 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers 4 2 2 0 12 8 4 —
7 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 10 1 9 0 18 58 2 —
8 Minuteman Flames Boyer 7 1 6 0 10 35 2 —
9 Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz 8 0 7 1 5 41 1 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 IHC 14 Elite 1 99% 68 (63–71)
2 TopGun 2014 Elite 2 (2–3) 1% 52 (46–58)
3 Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh 3 (2–4) <1% 50 (43–56)
4 South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer 4 (3–5) <1% 41 (34–48)
5 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 5 (4–5) <1% 34 (28–40)
6 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers 7 (6–8) <1% 16 (12–21)
7 Minuteman Flames Boyer 7 (6–9) <1% 16 (11–23)
8 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 7 (6–9) <1% 15 (10–22)
9 Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz 9 (7–9) <1% 11 (7–16)
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 03 IHC 14 Elite @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 03 IHC 14 Elite @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming 50/50 —
Sep 05 TopGun 2014 Elite @ IHC 14 Elite 2–6 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh @ IHC 14 Elite 2–7 50/50 —
Sep 12 Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh @ TopGun 2014 Elite 1–3 50/50 —
Sep 12 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 4–1 50/50 —
Sep 12 IHC 14 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz 7–0 50/50 —
Sep 13 IHC 14 Elite @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 11–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 IHC 14 Elite @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 6–0 50/50 —
Sep 13 Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh 0–7 50/50 —
Sep 19 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 @ South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer 4–4 50/50 —
Sep 19 TopGun 2014 Elite @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 4–2 50/50 —
Sep 19 Minuteman Flames Boyer @ Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz 2–1 50/50 —
Sep 20 TopGun 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 3–2 50/50 —
Sep 20 Minuteman Flames Boyer @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 3–6 50/50 —
Sep 26 Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh @ South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer 3–1 50/50 —
Sep 26 Minuteman Flames Boyer @ IHC 14 Elite 1–5 50/50 —
Sep 26 Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 2–2
12% 77%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
3.14 UPSET
Sep 27 South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer @ TopGun 2014 Elite 2–5 50/50 —
Sep 27 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh 4–5
28% 56%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.84
Oct 03 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh 1–9
13% 76%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.39
Oct 03 South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer @ Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz 4–0
58% 26%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.80
Oct 04 South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 4–1
67% 20%
0.59
Oct 10 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ TopGun 2014 Elite 0–2 50/50 —
Oct 10 Minuteman Flames Boyer @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 0–4
25% 60%
0.75
Oct 10 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ TopGun 2014 Elite 0–4 50/50 —
Oct 10 Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz @ IHC 14 Elite 1–7
1% 98%
0.03
Oct 11 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 @ IHC 14 Elite 2–9
6% 87%
0.21
Oct 11 South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer @ Minuteman Flames Boyer 7–2
61% 22%
0.70
Oct 17 Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh @ IHC 14 Elite 0–3
12% 79%
0.35
Oct 17 TopGun 2014 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Boyer 3–1
82% 9%
0.29
Oct 17 South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer @ Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz 5–0
77% 12%
0.38
Oct 17 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 5–4
70% 18%
0.52
Oct 18 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 7–0 50/50 —
Oct 18 TopGun 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 3–2
64% 21%
0.65
Oct 18 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 5–2
76% 13%
0.40
Oct 18 Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh 1–7
4% 90%
0.15
Oct 18 Minuteman Flames Boyer @ IHC 14 Elite 1–9
1% 98%
0.03
Oct 31 TopGun 2014 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer Upcoming
50% 32%
—
Oct 31 Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz @ IHC 14 Elite Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Oct 31 Minuteman Flames Boyer @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh Upcoming
4% 90%
—
Nov 01 TopGun 2014 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz Upcoming
87% 5%
—
Nov 01 South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer @ IHC 14 Elite Upcoming
7% 86%
—
Nov 07 TopGun 2014 Elite @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite Upcoming
87% 6%
—
Nov 07 Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming
55% 28%
—
Nov 07 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 @ Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz Upcoming
76% 12%
—
Nov 07 Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming
55% 28%
—
Nov 08 Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh @ TopGun 2014 Elite Upcoming
39% 43%
—
Nov 08 Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming
8% 82%
—
Nov 08 Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming
8% 82%
—
Nov 08 Minuteman Flames Boyer @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 Upcoming
15% 73%
—
Nov 14 IHC 14 Elite @ TopGun 2014 Elite Upcoming
70% 16%
—
Nov 14 Minuteman Flames Boyer @ South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer Upcoming
9% 82%
—
Nov 14 Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite Upcoming
30% 53%
—
Nov 15 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ IHC 14 Elite Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Nov 15 Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz @ Minuteman Flames Boyer Upcoming
28% 53%
—
Nov 15 South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 Upcoming
53% 31%
—
Nov 21 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 @ Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz Upcoming
76% 12%
—
Nov 21 IHC 14 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer Upcoming
82% 9%
—
Nov 22 IHC 14 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz Upcoming
98% 0%
—
Nov 28 IHC 14 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 Upcoming
91% 4%
—
Nov 28 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh Upcoming
3% 93%
—
Nov 28 Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz @ South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer Upcoming
6% 86%
—
Nov 28 Minuteman Flames Boyer @ TopGun 2014 Elite Upcoming
6% 86%
—
Nov 29 Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz @ TopGun 2014 Elite Upcoming
4% 89%
—
Nov 29 South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 Upcoming
53% 31%
—
Nov 29 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ IHC 14 Elite Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Dec 05 Minuteman Flames Boyer @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming
11% 77%
—
Dec 05 TopGun 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh Upcoming
38% 44%
—
Dec 05 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 @ Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz Upcoming
76% 12%
—
Dec 05 Minuteman Flames Boyer @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming
11% 77%
—
Dec 06 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ TopGun 2014 Elite Upcoming
4% 90%
—
Dec 06 South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 Upcoming
53% 31%
—
Dec 06 Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh @ Minuteman Flames Boyer Upcoming
88% 6%
—
Dec 12 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 @ Minuteman Flames Boyer Upcoming
69% 18%
—
Dec 12 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz Upcoming
48% 34%
—
Dec 12 South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer @ IHC 14 Elite Upcoming
7% 86%
—
Dec 13 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 @ TopGun 2014 Elite Upcoming
18% 68%
—
Dec 13 Minuteman Flames Boyer @ IHC 14 Elite Upcoming
0% 98%
—
Dec 19 South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer @ Minuteman Flames Boyer Upcoming
78% 11%
—
Dec 19 TopGun 2014 Elite @ IHC 14 Elite Upcoming
14% 74%
—
Dec 19 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh Upcoming
16% 72%
—
Dec 20 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Boyer Upcoming
37% 46%
—
Dec 20 Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh @ South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer Upcoming
52% 32%
—
Dec 20 Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz @ TopGun 2014 Elite Upcoming
4% 89%
—
Dec 20 IHC 14 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 Upcoming
91% 4%
—
Dec 26 Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh @ Minuteman Flames Boyer Upcoming
88% 6%
—
Dec 26 IHC 14 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer Upcoming
82% 9%
—
Dec 26 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 Upcoming
13% 78%
—
Dec 27 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 @ Minuteman Flames Boyer Upcoming
69% 18%
—
Dec 27 IHC 14 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh Upcoming
73% 15%
—
Jan 02 TopGun 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh Upcoming
38% 44%
—
Jan 02 South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer @ Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz Upcoming
83% 8%
—
Jan 02 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Boyer Upcoming
37% 46%
—
Jan 03 Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz @ Minuteman Flames Boyer Upcoming
28% 53%
—
Jan 03 Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 Upcoming
67% 20%
—
Jan 03 IHC 14 Elite @ TopGun 2014 Elite Upcoming
70% 16%
—
Jan 03 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer Upcoming
7% 86%
—
Jan 09 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer Upcoming
35% 47%
—
Jan 09 TopGun 2014 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Boyer Upcoming
84% 7%
—
Jan 09 IHC 14 Elite @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Jan 09 Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh @ Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz Upcoming
91% 4%
—
Jan 09 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer Upcoming
35% 47%
—
Jan 10 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 Upcoming
48% 35%
—
Jan 10 IHC 14 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh Upcoming
73% 15%
—
Jan 10 TopGun 2014 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer Upcoming
50% 32%
—
Jan 10 Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite Upcoming
30% 53%
—
Jan 10 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 Upcoming
48% 35%
—
Jan 16 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Boyer Upcoming
37% 46%
—
Jan 16 South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh Upcoming
27% 58%
—
Jan 17 South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer @ Minuteman Flames Boyer Upcoming
78% 11%
—
Jan 17 Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite Upcoming
91% 4%
—
Jan 23 TopGun 2014 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Boyer Upcoming
84% 7%
—
Jan 23 Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh @ Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz Upcoming
91% 4%
—
Jan 23 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer Upcoming
7% 86%
—
Jan 24 IHC 14 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh Upcoming
73% 15%
—
Jan 24 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz Upcoming
48% 34%
—
Jan 24 Minuteman Flames Boyer @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 Upcoming
15% 73%
—
Jan 24 South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer @ TopGun 2014 Elite Upcoming
28% 55%
—
Jan 30 Minuteman Flames Boyer @ Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz Upcoming
48% 32%
—
Jan 30 TopGun 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh Upcoming
38% 44%
—
Jan 30 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 @ South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer Upcoming
27% 58%
—
Jan 31 Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz @ South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer Upcoming
6% 86%
—
Jan 31 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite Upcoming
73% 16%
—
Jan 31 Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh @ Minuteman Flames Boyer Upcoming
88% 6%
—
Feb 06 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer Upcoming
7% 86%
—
Feb 06 TopGun 2014 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz Upcoming
87% 5%
—
Feb 06 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh Upcoming
16% 72%
—
Feb 06 IHC 14 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Boyer Upcoming
98% 1%
—
Feb 07 Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 Upcoming
10% 79%
—
Feb 07 Minuteman Flames Boyer @ TopGun 2014 Elite Upcoming
6% 86%
—
Feb 07 South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer @ IHC 14 Elite Upcoming
7% 86%
—
Feb 07 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh Upcoming
3% 93%
—
Feb 13 TopGun 2014 Elite @ IHC 14 Elite Upcoming
14% 74%
—
Feb 13 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 Upcoming
13% 78%
—
Feb 14 South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh Upcoming
27% 58%
—
Feb 14 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 @ TopGun 2014 Elite Upcoming
18% 68%
—
Feb 14 Minuteman Flames Boyer @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite Upcoming
41% 42%
—
Feb 20 Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh @ Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz Upcoming
91% 4%
—
Feb 20 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 @ IHC 14 Elite Upcoming
3% 93%
—
Feb 20 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ TopGun 2014 Elite Upcoming
4% 90%
—
Feb 20 Minuteman Flames Boyer @ South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer Upcoming
9% 82%
—
Feb 21 Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz @ TopGun 2014 Elite Upcoming
4% 89%
—
Feb 21 South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite Upcoming
83% 9%
—
Feb 21 Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 Upcoming
67% 20%
—
Feb 21 IHC 14 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Boyer Upcoming
98% 1%
—
Feb 27 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Major 2014 @ TopGun 2014 Elite Upcoming
18% 68%
—
Feb 27 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz Upcoming
48% 34%
—
Feb 27 Minuteman Flames Boyer @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh Upcoming
4% 90%
—
Feb 28 TopGun 2014 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2014 Elite Dwyer Upcoming
50% 32%
—
Feb 28 Boston Jr. Eagles - Vineburgh @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite Upcoming
91% 4%
—
Feb 28 Providence Capitals 2014 Elite - Rotz @ IHC 14 Elite Upcoming
0% 99%
—