The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS
1 Islanders Hockey Club 34 33 0 1 236 36 67
2 Boston Jr Eagles 37 25 7 5 174 89 55
3 Top Gun 36 19 11 6 166 112 44
4 South Shore Kings 36 19 12 5 159 109 43
5 Boston Jr Terriers 37 11 19 7 96 174 29
6 Providence Capitals - Rotz 35 10 20 5 83 134 25
7 Mid Fairfield 12 9 1 2 73 23 20
8 Minuteman Flames 36 4 28 4 62 179 12
9 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 37 2 34 1 66 259 5

Game Log

Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Feb 22 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–4
3.9%
90.6%
0.14
Feb 22 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 7–2
97.6%
0.9%
0.03
Feb 22 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–5
4.2%
90.8%
0.14
Feb 22 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 7–2
97.6%
0.9%
0.03
Feb 22 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 1–6
23.8%
57.2%
0.81
Feb 22 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 0–0
90.8%
4.2%
4.33 UPSET
Feb 22 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–4
3.9%
90.6%
0.14
Feb 21 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–5
0.3%
99.1%
0.01
Feb 21 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 2–2
80.9%
9.5%
3.38 UPSET
Feb 21 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 8–3
90.8%
3.7%
0.14
Feb 15 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–7
1.9%
94.7%
0.08
Feb 15 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Top Gun 2–2
8.8%
82.2%
3.48 UPSET
Feb 15 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 7–0
100.0%
0.0%
0.00
Feb 14 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 5–4
57.0%
26.2%
0.81
Feb 14 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–4
4.8%
88.7%
0.17
Feb 08 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 8–3
98.2%
0.7%
0.03
Feb 08 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 7–1
99.5%
0.1%
0.01
Feb 08 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 5–1
54.3%
31.2%
0.88
Feb 07 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 0–7
8.4%
84.2%
0.25
Feb 07 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–8
0.3%
98.6%
0.02
Feb 07 Mid Fairfield @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–1
56.4%
28.7%
0.83
Feb 07 Mid Fairfield @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–3
56.4%
28.7%
2.75 UPSET
Feb 07 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 3–7
8.4%
84.2%
0.25
Feb 07 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 5–2
91.6%
3.4%
0.13
Feb 01 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Minuteman Flames 5–0
51.9%
27.9%
0.95
Feb 01 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 6–4
39.5%
45.5%
1.34
Feb 01 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 5–0
90.3%
4.7%
0.15
Jan 31 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–5
32.9%
52.1%
0.94
Jan 31 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 2–5
49.4%
33.1%
1.60
Jan 31 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 0–4
4.2%
90.4%
0.15
Jan 25 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 2–0
48.1%
34.9%
1.06
Jan 25 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 7–2
91.8%
3.2%
0.12
Jan 24 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 5–1
89.6%
4.1%
0.16
Jan 24 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Top Gun 1–5
8.3%
83.0%
0.27
Jan 24 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 5–1
58.1%
25.9%
0.78
Jan 23 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 8–2
83.6%
8.6%
0.26
Jan 18 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 5–11
4.9%
88.4%
0.18
Jan 17 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 0–7
29.3%
52.6%
0.93
Jan 11 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–3
2.6%
93.0%
0.10
Jan 11 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 8–3
82.0%
8.5%
0.29
Jan 10 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 5–0
97.5%
1.0%
0.04
Jan 04 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 4–5
24.3%
53.9%
0.89
Jan 04 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 7–0
99.3%
0.2%
0.01
Jan 04 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 6–1
99.2%
0.3%
0.01
Jan 03 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–10
0.2%
99.2%
0.01
Jan 03 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 9–1
94.5%
1.8%
0.08
Jan 03 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 2–4
17.3%
68.9%
0.54
Jan 03 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 6–3
94.5%
1.8%
0.08
Dec 28 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–11
0.0%
100.0%
0.00
Dec 28 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–2
17.4%
67.2%
2.70 UPSET
Dec 28 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 2–1
53.8%
31.5%
0.89
Dec 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–6
7.9%
83.4%
0.26
Dec 27 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2–9
0.9%
97.7%
0.03
Dec 21 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 9–1
98.6%
0.3%
0.02
Dec 21 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–5
29.2%
57.0%
0.81
Dec 21 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 4–0
90.5%
3.5%
0.14
Dec 21 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 4–2
98.6%
0.3%
0.02
Dec 21 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 4–2
82.5%
9.7%
0.28
Dec 20 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Boston Jr Terriers 1–4
33.6%
48.9%
1.03
Dec 20 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 6–5
43.3%
41.2%
1.21
Dec 20 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 4–0
99.5%
0.1%
0.01
Dec 14 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Minuteman Flames 2–3
57.3%
21.3%
2.23
Dec 14 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–13
0.0%
100.0%
0.00
Dec 14 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 7–1
47.0%
37.6%
1.09
Dec 14 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 1–7
12.0%
79.0%
0.34
Dec 13 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 8–2
99.2%
0.2%
0.01
Dec 13 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 8–2
89.8%
3.8%
0.16
Dec 13 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–7
0.4%
99.0%
0.01
Dec 07 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 7–4
92.5%
2.6%
0.11
Dec 07 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–1
30.2%
53.0%
1.73
Dec 07 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ South Shore Kings 0–8
0.9%
97.8%
0.03
Dec 07 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–3
2.6%
92.5%
4.35 UPSET
Dec 06 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 8–0
98.7%
0.3%
0.02
Dec 06 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–1
6.1%
88.7%
4.27 UPSET
Dec 06 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Top Gun 2–13
2.3%
94.7%
0.08
Dec 06 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 2–2
93.8%
2.3%
4.66 UPSET
Nov 30 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 4–2
66.2%
19.9%
0.60
Nov 23 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Top Gun 3–3
11.4%
77.1%
3.12 UPSET
Nov 23 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 7–2
98.0%
0.8%
0.03
Nov 23 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–4
1.4%
96.3%
0.05
Nov 22 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–10
0.1%
99.5%
0.01
Nov 22 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 5–1
87.7%
5.8%
0.19
Nov 22 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 3–3
3.7%
92.5%
4.70 UPSET
Nov 22 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Top Gun 1–5
1.5%
96.4%
0.05
Nov 22 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 5–3
3.7%
92.5%
4.77 UPSET
Nov 16 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 6–1
88.3%
4.8%
0.18
Nov 16 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ South Shore Kings 1–8
0.4%
99.1%
0.01
Nov 16 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–2
37.8%
46.1%
2.63
Nov 15 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 8–1
75.1%
14.9%
0.41
Nov 15 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 1–4
51.2%
31.9%
1.65
Nov 15 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–7
4.4%
88.1%
0.18
Nov 09 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–6
11.0%
81.6%
0.29
Nov 09 South Shore Kings @ Mid Fairfield 3–4
26.7%
58.9%
0.76
Nov 09 South Shore Kings @ Mid Fairfield 3–3
26.7%
58.9%
2.80 UPSET
Nov 09 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–6
5.3%
88.5%
0.18
Nov 08 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 6–1
79.5%
12.7%
0.33
Nov 08 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 5–4
61.5%
25.2%
0.70
Nov 08 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ South Shore Kings 2–4
4.1%
90.2%
0.15
Nov 02 Mid Fairfield @ Minuteman Flames 8–0
96.8%
0.9%
0.05
Nov 02 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 12–0
100.0%
0.0%
0.00
Nov 02 Mid Fairfield @ Minuteman Flames 6–3
96.8%
0.9%
0.05
Nov 02 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 9–3
49.5%
35.1%
1.01
Nov 01 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 3–1
65.8%
20.6%
0.60
Nov 01 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 4–5
24.7%
60.2%
0.73
Nov 01 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 4–5
64.8%
20.9%
2.26
Nov 01 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–3
2.8%
92.8%
0.11
Oct 26 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 9–1
99.6%
0.1%
0.01
Oct 25 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–3
0.1%
99.6%
0.01
Oct 19 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Mid Fairfield 0–12
0.7%
98.2%
0.03
Oct 19 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 7–2
94.2%
2.8%
0.09
Oct 19 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Mid Fairfield 1–11
0.7%
98.2%
0.03
Oct 19 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 4–0
79.6%
9.5%
0.33
Oct 18 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 3–3
35.5%
48.1%
2.61
Oct 18 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–3
24.0%
62.3%
2.87 UPSET
Oct 18 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 3–1
92.8%
2.8%
0.11
Oct 12 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–2
57.2%
29.6%
0.81
Oct 12 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 1–3
67.9%
19.2%
2.38
Oct 12 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–6
3.1%
91.5%
0.13
Oct 12 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 1–5
34.2%
50.9%
0.97
Oct 11 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–5
8.2%
83.9%
0.25
Oct 11 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–2
90.6%
5.1%
4.54 UPSET
Oct 11 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 5–3
52.7%
30.5%
0.92
Oct 05 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 12–3
97.5%
1.0%
0.04
Oct 04 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 4–2
67.1%
18.7%
0.57
Sep 28 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 2–2
89.2%
5.0%
4.10 UPSET
Sep 28 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 1–4
1.0%
97.1%
0.04
Sep 28 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–2
88.2%
4.8%
0.18
Sep 28 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–6
12.4%
80.0%
0.32
Sep 27 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–11
0.0%
99.9% ⚠
0.00
Sep 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 11–2 50/50 —
Sep 27 Top Gun @ Mid Fairfield 5–2 50/50 —
Sep 27 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ South Shore Kings 0–6
5.4%
88.7% ⚠
0.17
Sep 27 Top Gun @ Mid Fairfield 1–3 50/50 —
Sep 21 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–7
0.2%
99.0% ⚠
0.01
Sep 21 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–4
3.9%
92.0% ⚠
4.60 UPSET
Sep 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 2–3
25.4%
61.8% ⚠
0.69
Sep 20 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 1–4 50/50 —
Sep 20 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 5–1 50/50 —
Sep 20 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–8 50/50 —
Sep 14 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 5–1 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 4–9 50/50 —
Sep 14 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 6–1 50/50 —
Sep 14 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–4 50/50 —
Sep 13 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 2–7 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers @ Mid Fairfield 1–7 50/50 —
Sep 13 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–8 50/50 —
Sep 13 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 4–4 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers @ Mid Fairfield 2–10 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 5–2 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–8 50/50 —