Upset Index

Games sorted by how surprising the result was, based on pre-game Dixon-Coles probabilities.

All Upsets only Low confidence
# Date Matchup Result Pre-game odds Surprisal (bits)
1 Nov 22, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 5–3
3.7%
92.5%
4.77 UPSET
2 Nov 22, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 3–3
3.7%
92.5%
4.70 UPSET
3 Dec 06, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 2–2
93.8%
2.3%
4.66 UPSET
4 Sep 21, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–4
3.9%
92.0% ⚠
4.60 UPSET
5 Oct 11, 2025 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–2
90.6%
5.1%
4.54 UPSET
6 Dec 06, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–1
6.1%
88.7%
4.27 UPSET
7 Feb 22, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 0–0
90.6%
4.2%
4.26 UPSET
8 Dec 07, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–3
2.6%
91.8%
4.14 UPSET
9 Sep 28, 2025 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 2–2
89.2%
5.0%
4.10 UPSET
10 Feb 15, 2026 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Top Gun 2–2
8.7%
81.6%
3.36 UPSET
11 Feb 21, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 2–2
80.2%
9.4%
3.26 UPSET
12 Nov 23, 2025 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Top Gun 3–3
11.4%
77.1%
3.12 UPSET
13 Oct 18, 2025 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–3
24.0%
62.3%
2.87 UPSET
14 Nov 09, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Mid Fairfield 3–3
26.7%
58.9%
2.80 UPSET
15 Feb 07, 2026 Mid Fairfield @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–3
55.9%
28.4%
2.68 UPSET
16 Nov 16, 2025 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–2
37.8%
46.1%
2.63
17 Oct 18, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 3–3
35.5%
48.1%
2.61
18 Dec 28, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–2
16.8%
65.6%
2.51 UPSET
19 Dec 14, 2025 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Minuteman Flames 2–3
54.4%
19.2%
2.38
20 Oct 12, 2025 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 1–3
67.9%
19.2%
2.38
21 Nov 01, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 4–5
64.8%
20.9%
2.26
22 Dec 07, 2025 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–1
29.7%
52.0%
1.75
23 Nov 15, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 1–4
51.2%
31.9%
1.65
24 Jan 31, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 2–5
48.4%
32.4%
1.63
25 Feb 01, 2026 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 6–4
39.3%
45.2%
1.35
26 Dec 20, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 6–5
42.9%
40.9%
1.22
27 Dec 14, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 7–1
46.6%
37.3%
1.10
28 Jan 25, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 2–0
47.3%
34.3%
1.08
29 Dec 20, 2025 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Boston Jr Terriers 1–4
32.9%
47.9%
1.06
30 Nov 02, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 9–3
49.5%
35.1%
1.01
31 Feb 01, 2026 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Minuteman Flames 5–0
49.7%
26.5%
1.01
32 Oct 12, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 1–5
34.2%
50.9%
0.97
33 Jan 04, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 4–5
22.1%
51.0%
0.97
34 Jan 17, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 0–7
28.4%
51.2%
0.97
35 Jan 31, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–5
32.7%
51.7%
0.95
36 Oct 11, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 5–3
52.7%
30.5%
0.92
37 Dec 28, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 2–1
53.5%
31.3%
0.90
38 Feb 08, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 5–1
54.0%
31.0%
0.89
39 Feb 22, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 1–6
22.6%
55.1%
0.86
40 Feb 14, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 5–4
55.8%
25.6%
0.84
41 Feb 07, 2026 Mid Fairfield @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–1
55.9%
28.4%
0.84
42 Dec 21, 2025 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–5
29.0%
56.8%
0.82
43 Jan 24, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 5–1
57.2%
25.5%
0.81
44 Oct 12, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–2
57.2%
29.6%
0.81
45 Nov 09, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Mid Fairfield 3–4
26.7%
58.9%
0.76
46 Nov 01, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 4–5
24.7%
60.2%
0.73
47 Nov 08, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 5–4
61.5%
25.2%
0.70
48 Sep 21, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 2–3
25.4%
61.8% ⚠
0.69
49 Nov 01, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 3–1
65.8%
20.6%
0.60
50 Nov 30, 2025 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 4–2
66.2%
19.9%
0.60
51 Oct 04, 2025 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 4–2
67.1%
18.7%
0.57
52 Jan 03, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 2–4
17.0%
67.8%
0.56
53 Nov 15, 2025 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 8–1
75.1%
14.9%
0.41
54 Dec 14, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 1–7
12.0%
78.8%
0.34
55 Nov 08, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 6–1
79.5%
12.7%
0.33
56 Oct 19, 2025 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 4–0
79.6%
9.5%
0.33
57 Sep 28, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–6
12.4%
80.0%
0.32
58 Jan 11, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 8–3
81.2%
8.3%
0.30
59 Nov 09, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–6
11.0%
81.6%
0.29
60 Dec 21, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 4–2
82.3%
9.7%
0.28
61 Jan 24, 2026 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Top Gun 1–5
8.3%
82.4%
0.28
62 Dec 27, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–6
7.8%
82.6%
0.28
63 Jan 23, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 8–2
83.3%
8.6%
0.26
64 Oct 11, 2025 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–5
8.2%
83.9%
0.25
65 Feb 07, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 0–7
8.4%
84.0%
0.25
66 Feb 07, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 3–7
8.4%
84.0%
0.25
67 Nov 22, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 5–1
87.7%
5.8%
0.19
68 Jan 18, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 5–11
4.8%
87.7%
0.19
69 Feb 14, 2026 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–4
4.8%
88.1%
0.18
70 Nov 15, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–7
4.4%
88.1%
0.18
71 Sep 28, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–2
88.2%
4.8%
0.18
72 Nov 16, 2025 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 6–1
88.3%
4.8%
0.18
73 Nov 09, 2025 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–6
5.3%
88.5%
0.18
74 Sep 27, 2025 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ South Shore Kings 0–6
5.4%
88.7% ⚠
0.17
75 Jan 24, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 5–1
88.9%
4.0%
0.17
76 Dec 13, 2025 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 8–2
88.9%
3.7%
0.17
77 Dec 21, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 4–0
89.7%
3.5%
0.16
78 Jan 31, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 0–4
4.1%
89.9%
0.15
79 Feb 22, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–4
3.9%
90.0%
0.15
80 Feb 22, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–4
3.9%
90.0%
0.15
81 Feb 01, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 5–0
90.1%
4.7%
0.15
82 Nov 08, 2025 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ South Shore Kings 2–4
4.1%
90.2%
0.15
83 Feb 21, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 8–3
90.3%
3.7%
0.15
84 Feb 22, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–5
4.2%
90.6%
0.14
85 Feb 07, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 5–2
91.2%
3.3%
0.13
86 Jan 25, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 7–2
91.2%
3.2%
0.13
87 Oct 12, 2025 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–6
3.1%
91.5%
0.13
88 Dec 07, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 7–4
91.8%
2.6%
0.12
89 Jan 11, 2026 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–3
2.6%
92.5%
0.11
90 Nov 01, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–3
2.8%
92.8%
0.11
91 Oct 18, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 3–1
92.8%
2.8%
0.11
92 Jan 03, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 9–1
93.9%
1.8%
0.09
93 Jan 03, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 6–3
93.9%
1.8%
0.09
94 Oct 19, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 7–2
94.2%
2.8%
0.09
95 Feb 15, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–7
1.9%
94.3%
0.08
96 Dec 06, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Top Gun 2–13
2.3%
94.7%
0.08
97 Nov 23, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–4
1.4%
96.3%
0.05
98 Nov 22, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Top Gun 1–5
1.5%
96.4%
0.05
99 Nov 02, 2025 Mid Fairfield @ Minuteman Flames 8–0
96.8%
0.9%
0.05
100 Nov 02, 2025 Mid Fairfield @ Minuteman Flames 6–3
96.8%
0.9%
0.05
101 Sep 28, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 1–4
1.0%
97.1%
0.04
102 Jan 10, 2026 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 5–0
97.4%
1.0%
0.04
103 Oct 05, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 12–3
97.5%
1.0%
0.04
104 Feb 22, 2026 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 7–2
97.6%
0.9%
0.04
105 Feb 22, 2026 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 7–2
97.6%
0.9%
0.04
106 Dec 27, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2–9
0.9%
97.6%
0.03
107 Dec 07, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ South Shore Kings 0–8
0.9%
97.7%
0.03
108 Nov 23, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 7–2
98.0%
0.8%
0.03
109 Feb 08, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 8–3
98.2%
0.7%
0.03
110 Oct 19, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Mid Fairfield 0–12
0.7%
98.2%
0.03
111 Oct 19, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Mid Fairfield 1–11
0.7%
98.2%
0.03
112 Dec 21, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 9–1
98.3%
0.3%
0.02
113 Dec 21, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 4–2
98.3%
0.3%
0.02
114 Feb 07, 2026 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–8
0.3%
98.4%
0.02
115 Dec 06, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Rotz 8–0
98.7%
0.3%
0.02
116 Sep 21, 2025 Providence Capitals - Rotz @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–7
0.2%
99.0% ⚠
0.01
117 Dec 13, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–7
0.4%
99.0%
0.01
118 Nov 16, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ South Shore Kings 1–8
0.4%
99.1%
0.01
119 Feb 21, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–5
0.3%
99.1%
0.01
120 Jan 03, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–10
0.2%
99.1%
0.01
121 Dec 13, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 8–2
99.2%
0.2%
0.01
122 Jan 04, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 6–1
99.2%
0.3%
0.01
123 Jan 04, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 7–0
99.3%
0.2%
0.01
124 Dec 20, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 4–0
99.4%
0.1%
0.01
125 Feb 08, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 7–1
99.5%
0.1%
0.01
126 Nov 22, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–10
0.1%
99.5%
0.01
127 Oct 25, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–3
0.1%
99.6%
0.01
128 Oct 26, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 9–1
99.6%
0.1%
0.01
129 Sep 27, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–11
0.0%
99.9% ⚠
0.00
130 Dec 14, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–13
0.0%
100.0%
0.00
131 Feb 15, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 7–0
100.0%
0.0%
0.00
132 Dec 28, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–11
0.0%
100.0%
0.00
133 Nov 02, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Elite 12–0
100.0%
0.0%
0.00