Upset Index

Games sorted by how surprising the result was, based on pre-game Dixon-Coles probabilities.

All Upsets only Low confidence
# Date Matchup Result Pre-game odds Surprisal (bits)
1 Sep 14, 2025 Providence (South) - Joannette @ MC Selects 5–1
0.3%
99.3% ⚠
8.46 UPSET
2 Sep 27, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Boston 1–3
98.9%
0.3%
8.18 UPSET
3 Oct 26, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Providence (South) - Joannette 1–2
92.5%
3.6%
4.80 UPSET
4 Jan 11, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Providence (South) - Joannette 2–2
92.1%
3.6%
4.54 UPSET
5 Sep 21, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ MC Selects 1–3
85.4%
6.3% ⚠
3.98 UPSET
6 Dec 20, 2025 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–2
6.6%
87.0%
3.96 UPSET
7 Jan 10, 2026 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–0
6.6%
86.4%
3.93 UPSET
8 Feb 14, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Boston 2–2
83.1%
8.4%
3.55 UPSET
9 Jan 04, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–1
78.1%
12.6%
3.44 UPSET
10 Oct 11, 2025 Team Merrimack East @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–3
13.8%
76.2%
3.32 UPSET
11 Feb 08, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–1
74.2%
13.8%
3.06 UPSET
12 Nov 22, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 2–2
27.1%
60.8%
3.05 UPSET
13 Dec 06, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Merrimack East 1–1
32.3%
55.0%
2.97 UPSET
14 Nov 09, 2025 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Team Merrimack East 4–4
22.5%
64.5%
2.94 UPSET
15 Dec 07, 2025 MC Selects @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–1
29.5%
57.4%
2.93 UPSET
16 Nov 02, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Merrimack East 2–2
32.5%
54.1%
2.91 UPSET
17 Dec 20, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ MC Selects 1–1
55.0%
31.3%
2.87 UPSET
18 Oct 04, 2025 Team Boston @ Providence (South) - Joannette 4–4
60.6%
25.6%
2.86 UPSET
19 Feb 08, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Merrimack East 3–3
63.4%
22.4%
2.82 UPSET
20 Nov 09, 2025 MC Selects @ South Shore Knights 1–1
52.4%
32.9%
2.76 UPSET
21 Jan 04, 2026 South Shore Knights @ Providence (South) - Joannette 1–1
33.4%
51.5%
2.73 UPSET
22 Jan 11, 2026 Team Boston @ South Shore Knights 1–1
59.0%
25.6%
2.70 UPSET
23 Jan 31, 2026 Providence (South) - Joannette @ MC Selects 2–2
45.4%
38.5%
2.63
24 Dec 21, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack East 1–2
71.8%
16.3%
2.62 UPSET
25 Feb 15, 2026 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 2–2
29.8%
53.6%
2.59 UPSET
26 Feb 01, 2026 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Providence (South) - Joannette 2–2
52.5%
30.2%
2.53 UPSET
27 Jan 11, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Merrimack East 3–4
68.6%
18.5%
2.44
28 Jan 31, 2026 Team Merrimack East @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–1
19.0%
67.9%
2.40
29 Oct 12, 2025 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 3–2
21.8%
65.6%
2.20
30 Nov 22, 2025 Providence (South) - Joannette @ MC Selects 0–3
66.2%
21.8%
2.20
31 Sep 20, 2025 MC Selects @ South Shore Knights 1–7
63.3%
22.4% ⚠
2.16
32 Oct 04, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 3–4
64.3%
22.7%
2.14
33 Dec 07, 2025 Providence (South) - Joannette @ South Shore Knights 2–4
62.1%
24.5%
2.03
34 Nov 02, 2025 MC Selects @ Team Boston 2–1
24.7%
62.0%
2.02
35 Jan 11, 2026 Team Boston @ South Shore Knights 2–5
59.0%
25.6%
1.97
36 Jan 18, 2026 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 2–1
26.3%
54.3%
1.92
37 Feb 22, 2026 MC Selects @ Team Boston 3–1
28.5%
55.4%
1.81
38 Jan 10, 2026 Team Merrimack East @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–2
52.7%
28.7%
1.80
39 Dec 13, 2025 Team Boston @ MC Selects 0–2
53.3%
31.3%
1.67
40 Sep 27, 2025 Team Merrimack East @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 0–1
44.8%
31.9%
1.65
41 Jan 24, 2026 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–0
34.1%
45.1%
1.55
42 Dec 28, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Boston 0–3
48.8%
35.3%
1.50
43 Dec 28, 2025 MC Selects @ Providence (South) - Joannette 3–1
36.6%
48.5%
1.45
44 Nov 16, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Providence (South) - Joannette 2–3
46.8%
38.4%
1.38
45 Feb 22, 2026 Providence (South) - Joannette @ South Shore Knights 1–3
44.6%
38.9%
1.36
46 Nov 01, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Boston 0–1
45.9%
39.7%
1.33
47 Dec 14, 2025 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Team Boston 0–1
44.9%
39.8%
1.33
48 Nov 15, 2025 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–0
39.8%
46.3%
1.33
49 Feb 07, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–2
40.1%
43.7%
1.32
50 Sep 20, 2025 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Team Boston 1–3
44.6%
40.4% ⚠
1.31
51 Sep 27, 2025 MC Selects @ Providence (South) - Joannette 5–3
43.8%
40.2%
1.19
52 Dec 06, 2025 South Shore Knights @ MC Selects 1–3
40.5%
44.2%
1.18
53 Dec 27, 2025 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Team Boston 0–1
40.1%
44.2%
1.18
54 Jan 10, 2026 South Shore Knights @ MC Selects 2–3
37.4%
45.9%
1.12
55 Oct 25, 2025 Team Boston @ Providence (South) - Joannette 6–2
47.7%
37.2%
1.07
56 Dec 21, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Providence (South) - Joannette 3–0
47.8%
36.2%
1.07
57 Jan 03, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–2
34.9%
50.1%
1.00
58 Jan 25, 2026 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Merrimack East 1–3
29.8%
51.6%
0.95
59 Nov 01, 2025 Providence (South) - Joannette @ South Shore Knights 7–1
51.8%
33.6%
0.95
60 Feb 07, 2026 Team Boston @ MC Selects 2–0
52.8%
31.2%
0.92
61 Jan 11, 2026 MC Selects @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–2
28.2%
54.1%
0.89
62 Sep 28, 2025 Team Boston @ Team Merrimack East 0–2
32.0%
54.1%
0.89
63 Jan 18, 2026 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–4
26.3%
54.3%
0.88
64 Oct 26, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ South Shore Knights 2–0
54.4%
31.5%
0.88
65 Jan 03, 2026 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ South Shore Knights 2–1
55.5%
29.9%
0.85
66 Nov 29, 2025 Team Merrimack East @ Team Boston 4–1
57.0%
28.8%
0.81
67 Nov 01, 2025 Team Merrimack East @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 1–2
27.6%
58.5%
0.77
68 Oct 18, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ MC Selects 1–0
61.5%
24.9%
0.70
69 Nov 08, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 1–4
24.5%
62.0%
0.69
70 Jan 04, 2026 Team Boston @ Team Merrimack East 2–4
23.9%
62.4%
0.68
71 Feb 01, 2026 Team Merrimack East @ Team Boston 3–0
63.6%
21.9%
0.65
72 Oct 25, 2025 Team Merrimack East @ South Shore Knights 5–1
64.0%
22.9%
0.64
73 Feb 21, 2026 Team Boston @ Team Merrimack East 1–5
20.9%
64.5%
0.63
74 Oct 05, 2025 Team Merrimack East @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–5
22.5%
64.9%
0.62
75 Nov 30, 2025 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Team Merrimack East 3–4
21.4%
65.9%
0.60
76 Dec 20, 2025 Team Merrimack East @ Providence (South) - Joannette 5–2
66.3%
21.0%
0.59
77 Nov 09, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–0
69.0%
19.7%
0.54
78 Nov 22, 2025 Team Merrimack East @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–4
18.2%
70.1%
0.51
79 Oct 12, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack East 4–1
70.5%
17.9%
0.50
80 Dec 14, 2025 MC Selects @ Team Merrimack East 2–3
16.6%
71.5%
0.48
81 Dec 14, 2025 MC Selects @ Team Merrimack East 1–3
16.6%
71.5%
0.48
82 Dec 21, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack East 4–2
71.8%
16.3%
0.48
83 Oct 11, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–3
17.0%
72.0%
0.47
84 Jan 03, 2026 Team Merrimack East @ Providence (South) - Joannette 3–2
72.2%
16.4%
0.47
85 Dec 13, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack East 1–2
15.2%
73.4%
0.45
86 Feb 22, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 3–0
73.4%
13.7%
0.45
87 Nov 29, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 1–2
16.4%
73.5%
0.44
88 Oct 04, 2025 Team Merrimack East @ MC Selects 5–3
73.8%
15.7%
0.44
89 Jan 24, 2026 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack East 2–3
14.1%
74.2%
0.43
90 Feb 07, 2026 Team Merrimack East @ South Shore Knights 3–0
74.8%
13.9%
0.42
91 Nov 08, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 0–2
14.1%
76.3%
0.39
92 Oct 25, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–4
13.7%
76.7%
0.38
93 Oct 26, 2025 MC Selects @ Team Merrimack East 0–3
12.8%
77.5%
0.37
94 Nov 22, 2025 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 1–4
10.4%
81.1%
0.30
95 Nov 30, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Boston 7–0
82.1%
9.7%
0.28
96 Nov 15, 2025 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 3–7
9.2%
83.2%
0.27
97 Sep 27, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 1–7
7.5%
84.5%
0.24
98 Oct 26, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Boston 7–2
86.1%
7.2%
0.22
99 Sep 20, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 4–3
86.5%
5.6% ⚠
0.21
100 Oct 18, 2025 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–3
6.7%
87.0%
0.20
101 Dec 06, 2025 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–4
5.9%
88.2%
0.18
102 Jan 24, 2026 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–5
4.6%
90.1%
0.15
103 Feb 21, 2026 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–5
4.4%
90.2%
0.15
104 Jan 04, 2026 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 0–6
4.6%
90.4%
0.15
105 Nov 16, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ MC Selects 10–1
90.5%
4.6%
0.14
106 Feb 15, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Providence (South) - Joannette 8–1
90.7%
4.3%
0.14
107 Feb 01, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ MC Selects 8–1
90.8%
4.2%
0.14
108 Jan 25, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Providence (South) - Joannette 7–0
90.8%
4.3%
0.14
109 Jan 31, 2026 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 0–3
4.1%
90.8%
0.14
110 Jan 24, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ MC Selects 4–0
91.2%
4.0%
0.13
111 Feb 01, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ South Shore Knights 1–0
91.4%
3.8%
0.13
112 Oct 25, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ MC Selects 9–1
91.5%
4.1%
0.13
113 Dec 21, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ South Shore Knights 7–3
91.6%
3.8%
0.13
114 Feb 21, 2026 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 0–8
3.5%
92.0%
0.12
115 Jan 10, 2026 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 0–5
3.7%
92.0%
0.12
116 Feb 14, 2026 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–4
3.5%
92.1%
0.12
117 Nov 23, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ South Shore Knights 3–1
92.7%
3.4%
0.11
118 Dec 20, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 0–5
3.1%
93.2%
0.10
119 Nov 15, 2025 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–5
2.3%
94.9%
0.08
120 Oct 18, 2025 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–4
2.3%
94.9%
0.08
121 Nov 16, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ South Shore Knights 4–2
95.6%
1.9%
0.07
122 Nov 02, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ South Shore Knights 2–0
97.4%
1.1%
0.04
123 Nov 01, 2025 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–4
1.1%
97.5%
0.04
124 Oct 05, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Providence (South) - Joannette 4–3
98.4%
0.6%
0.02
125 Sep 21, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Providence (South) - Joannette 8–1
99.6%
0.1% ⚠
0.01
126 Sep 14, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Boston 9–2
99.8%
0.0% ⚠
0.00