Upset Index

Games sorted by how surprising the result was, based on pre-game Dixon-Coles probabilities.

All Upsets only Low confidence
# Date Matchup Result Pre-game odds Surprisal (bits)
1 Sep 28, 2025 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Spartans - Savage 3–12
99.9%
0.0% ⚠
12.01 UPSET
2 Feb 22, 2026 MC Selects - Gajda @ Bay State Waves Green 0–3
96.3%
1.7%
5.89 UPSET
3 Feb 01, 2026 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Spartans - Savage 3–9
96.6%
1.8%
5.79 UPSET
4 Feb 22, 2026 MC Selects - Gajda @ Bay State Waves Green 5–5
96.3%
1.7%
5.66 UPSET
5 Dec 13, 2025 Providence (North) - Bradley @ MC Selects - Gajda 11–11
89.5%
6.1%
4.51 UPSET
6 Jan 11, 2026 Bay State Waves Black @ Young Guns - Kent 3–2
4.5%
91.0%
4.48 UPSET
7 Jan 10, 2026 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 3–5
88.3%
6.8%
3.89 UPSET
8 Dec 07, 2025 MC Selects - Gajda @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 3–4
85.4%
7.6%
3.72 UPSET
9 Dec 07, 2025 MC Selects - Gajda @ Young Guns - Kent 4–4
13.6%
78.5%
3.66 UPSET
10 Nov 22, 2025 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ MC Selects - Gajda 3–3
59.3%
29.9%
3.21 UPSET
11 Feb 08, 2026 Bay State Waves Black @ Spartans - Savage 2–2
28.7%
60.5%
3.21 UPSET
12 Feb 21, 2026 Young Guns - Kent @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 2–2
73.9%
15.0%
3.18 UPSET
13 Jan 25, 2026 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Bay State Waves Green 0–0
71.8%
16.2%
3.06 UPSET
14 Dec 20, 2025 Spartans - Savage @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 5–5
59.1%
28.4%
3.00 UPSET
15 Dec 28, 2025 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 4–0
14.4%
75.5%
2.80 UPSET
16 Jan 10, 2026 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Bay State Waves Black 4–4
42.6%
42.3%
2.72
17 Feb 08, 2026 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 3–8
70.9%
16.9%
2.57 UPSET
18 Feb 07, 2026 Spartans - Savage @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 4–3
28.3%
61.2%
1.82
19 Feb 15, 2026 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Spartans - Savage 5–7
58.1%
30.8%
1.70
20 Jan 10, 2026 Spartans - Savage @ Bay State Waves Black 8–9
56.2%
32.7%
1.61
21 Jan 18, 2026 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Young Guns - Kent 1–4
53.7%
33.1%
1.60
22 Dec 14, 2025 MC Selects - Gajda @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 10–4
34.0%
54.7%
1.56
23 Jan 04, 2026 Bay State Waves Black @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 9–3
35.3%
48.6%
1.50
24 Nov 08, 2025 Spartans - Savage @ MC Selects - Gajda 8–9
46.2%
42.8%
1.23
25 Nov 08, 2025 Spartans - Savage @ MC Selects - Gajda 4–14
46.2%
42.8%
1.23
26 Dec 07, 2025 Bay State Waves Green @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 0–9
38.1%
43.7%
1.19
27 Nov 30, 2025 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Bay State Waves Green 4–3
47.0%
34.4%
1.09
28 Jan 11, 2026 MC Selects - Gajda @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 5–2
49.2%
39.1%
1.02
29 Nov 23, 2025 Young Guns - Kent @ Providence (North) - Bradley 3–7
38.9%
49.5%
1.01
30 Jan 24, 2026 Bay State Waves Black @ Spartans - Savage 5–6
37.5%
51.4%
0.96
31 Jan 24, 2026 Bay State Waves Black @ Spartans - Savage 1–5
37.5%
51.4%
0.96
32 Jan 03, 2026 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Young Guns - Kent 4–1
53.5%
34.2%
0.90
33 Jan 11, 2026 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Spartans - Savage 4–8
33.7%
54.0%
0.89
34 Dec 06, 2025 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Providence (North) - Bradley 4–2
56.5%
30.9%
0.82
35 Dec 06, 2025 Bay State Waves Black @ MC Selects - Gajda 5–6
30.8%
56.9%
0.81
36 Feb 21, 2026 Spartans - Savage @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 9–4
60.3%
27.4%
0.73
37 Jan 17, 2026 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–7
26.3%
61.5%
0.70
38 Feb 22, 2026 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Spartans - Savage 1–7
25.3%
62.9%
0.67
39 Oct 26, 2025 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Boch Blazers - Busch 6–7
23.8%
63.4%
0.66
40 Jan 10, 2026 Young Guns - Kent @ Boch Blazers - Busch 0–5
22.1%
64.6%
0.63
41 Dec 21, 2025 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Providence (North) - Bradley 7–5
64.6%
23.6%
0.63
42 Oct 11, 2025 MC Selects - Gajda @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 5–1
65.7%
20.2%
0.61
43 Dec 14, 2025 Bay State Waves Green @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 4–6
19.3%
66.5%
0.59
44 Feb 14, 2026 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Bay State Waves Black 6–2
67.7%
20.9%
0.56
45 Feb 14, 2026 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Bay State Waves Black 6–3
67.7%
20.9%
0.56
46 Dec 27, 2025 Bay State Waves Black @ Bay State Waves Green 5–2
67.9%
19.8%
0.56
47 Feb 01, 2026 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Young Guns - Kent 4–0
68.0%
17.9%
0.56
48 Oct 18, 2025 Spartans - Savage @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 4–8
22.8%
68.1%
0.55
49 Dec 13, 2025 Bay State Waves Black @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 2–11
19.7%
69.7%
0.52
50 Nov 30, 2025 Young Guns - Kent @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 4–3
70.2%
19.9%
0.51
51 Dec 20, 2025 Young Guns - Kent @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–4
17.7%
70.6%
0.50
52 Dec 20, 2025 Young Guns - Kent @ Boch Blazers - Busch 2–3
17.7%
70.6%
0.50
53 Jan 17, 2026 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Young Guns - Kent 0–2
17.9%
71.0%
0.49
54 Nov 15, 2025 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 9–4
71.5%
19.3%
0.48
55 Feb 01, 2026 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 3–4
15.9%
72.6%
0.46
56 Sep 27, 2025 Young Guns - Kent @ Providence (North) - Bradley 5–6
16.2%
74.8% ⚠
0.42
57 Jan 04, 2026 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Young Guns - Kent 1–5
14.8%
75.8%
0.40
58 Dec 20, 2025 Bay State Waves Black @ MC Selects - Gajda 0–10
14.5%
77.4%
0.37
59 Nov 09, 2025 Spartans - Savage @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 1–8
14.9%
78.0%
0.36
60 Jan 31, 2026 MC Selects - Gajda @ Spartans - Savage 8–5
78.2%
14.9%
0.35
61 Jan 31, 2026 MC Selects - Gajda @ Spartans - Savage 5–4
78.2%
14.9%
0.35
62 Oct 19, 2025 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Providence (North) - Bradley 3–2
78.8%
12.3%
0.34
63 Feb 14, 2026 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ MC Selects - Gajda 2–4
12.4%
78.9%
0.34
64 Jan 03, 2026 Bay State Waves Black @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 4–7
12.3%
79.2%
0.34
65 Nov 29, 2025 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–11
10.9%
81.0%
0.30
66 Feb 01, 2026 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ MC Selects - Gajda 2–5
10.7%
81.2%
0.30
67 Feb 15, 2026 MC Selects - Gajda @ Bay State Waves Black 4–2
81.4%
11.2%
0.30
68 Dec 20, 2025 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Providence (North) - Bradley 2–10
11.7%
81.5%
0.29
69 Nov 15, 2025 Spartans - Savage @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 5–3
82.7%
9.0%
0.27
70 Nov 08, 2025 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 7–6
83.0%
9.5%
0.27
71 Jan 31, 2026 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Providence (North) - Bradley 2–10
9.7%
83.8%
0.25
72 Jan 04, 2026 MC Selects - Gajda @ Providence (North) - Bradley 3–8
9.6%
84.8%
0.24
73 Feb 15, 2026 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Young Guns - Kent 1–3
6.1%
85.7%
0.22
74 Dec 06, 2025 Bay State Waves Green @ Spartans - Savage 7–11
8.0%
86.3%
0.21
75 Dec 06, 2025 Spartans - Savage @ Bay State Waves Green 3–1
86.3%
8.0%
0.21
76 Feb 14, 2026 Young Guns - Kent @ Spartans - Savage 5–3
86.8%
7.4%
0.20
77 Oct 04, 2025 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–4
6.7%
88.2% ⚠
0.18
78 Jan 24, 2026 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Young Guns - Kent 1–2
5.2%
88.7%
0.17
79 Oct 26, 2025 MC Selects - Gajda @ Young Guns - Kent 4–13
5.8%
89.3%
0.16
80 Nov 16, 2025 MC Selects - Gajda @ Boch Blazers - Busch 5–8
5.5%
89.6%
0.16
81 Nov 02, 2025 Spartans - Savage @ Providence (North) - Bradley 4–13
5.7%
90.4%
0.15
82 Jan 04, 2026 Bay State Waves Green @ Spartans - Savage 2–6
5.3%
90.4%
0.15
83 Dec 27, 2025 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 8–3
90.5%
4.7%
0.14
84 Oct 18, 2025 Providence (North) - Bradley @ MC Selects - Gajda 6–4
91.5%
4.8%
0.13
85 Jan 24, 2026 Boch Blazers - Busch @ MC Selects - Gajda 4–3
91.7%
4.4%
0.13
86 Feb 21, 2026 MC Selects - Gajda @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–8
3.9%
92.3%
0.12
87 Nov 30, 2025 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Bay State Waves Black 8–3
92.4%
3.4%
0.11
88 Oct 05, 2025 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 7–0
92.6%
2.4% ⚠
0.11
89 Dec 07, 2025 Bay State Waves Black @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–10
2.9%
93.7%
0.09
90 Nov 01, 2025 Spartans - Savage @ Young Guns - Kent 8–12
3.2%
93.9%
0.09
91 Dec 21, 2025 Young Guns - Kent @ Bay State Waves Black 6–0
94.0%
2.8%
0.09
92 Nov 29, 2025 Young Guns - Kent @ Bay State Waves Black 4–3
94.9%
2.4%
0.08
93 Dec 06, 2025 Young Guns - Kent @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 5–0
95.2%
1.9%
0.07
94 Feb 07, 2026 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 7–1
95.2%
2.1%
0.07
95 Oct 04, 2025 Providence (North) - Bradley @ MC Selects - Gajda 3–2
95.7%
2.3% ⚠
0.06
96 Oct 25, 2025 Boch Blazers - Busch @ MC Selects - Gajda 6–4
95.8%
1.7%
0.06
97 Dec 21, 2025 Bay State Waves Green @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 2–4
1.8%
96.1%
0.06
98 Jan 04, 2026 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 8–5
96.1%
1.4%
0.06
99 Feb 01, 2026 Bay State Waves Green @ MC Selects - Gajda 2–9
1.7%
96.2%
0.06
100 Nov 22, 2025 Spartans - Savage @ Young Guns - Kent 8–10
1.9%
96.2%
0.06
101 Oct 25, 2025 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Providence (North) - Bradley 0–9
1.4%
96.4%
0.05
102 Dec 27, 2025 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 8–2
96.4%
1.6%
0.05
103 Dec 14, 2025 Bay State Waves Black @ Providence (North) - Bradley 4–10
1.5%
97.0%
0.04
104 Dec 07, 2025 Spartans - Savage @ Providence (North) - Bradley 4–12
1.6%
97.0%
0.04
105 Jan 31, 2026 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Boch Blazers - Busch 0–9
1.0%
97.0%
0.04
106 Jan 10, 2026 Bay State Waves Green @ MC Selects - Gajda 6–11
1.2%
97.3%
0.04
107 Nov 09, 2025 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–7
0.7%
97.6%
0.04
108 Jan 31, 2026 Young Guns - Kent @ Bay State Waves Green 8–3
97.7%
0.7%
0.03
109 Nov 08, 2025 Young Guns - Kent @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 9–1
98.1%
0.6%
0.03
110 Dec 14, 2025 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Spartans - Savage 10–1
98.2%
0.8%
0.03
111 Dec 28, 2025 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Bay State Waves Black 8–2
98.3%
0.8%
0.03
112 Dec 28, 2025 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Bay State Waves Black 11–2
98.3%
0.8%
0.03
113 Nov 16, 2025 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Providence (North) - Bradley 3–13
0.6%
98.3%
0.02
114 Feb 22, 2026 Bay State Waves Black @ Boch Blazers - Busch 2–8
0.5%
98.4%
0.02
115 Jan 03, 2026 Spartans - Savage @ Boch Blazers - Busch 4–11
0.6%
98.6%
0.02
116 Sep 21, 2025 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Spartans - Savage 5–2
98.6%
0.7% ⚠
0.02
117 Nov 29, 2025 Young Guns - Kent @ Bay State Waves Green 4–1
99.7%
0.1%
0.01
118 Jan 24, 2026 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Bay State Waves Green 6–0
99.7%
0.1%
0.01
119 Jan 24, 2026 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Bay State Waves Green 13–1
99.7%
0.1%
0.01
120 Feb 21, 2026 Bay State Waves Green @ Providence (North) - Bradley 3–13
0.1%
99.7%
0.00
121 Jan 11, 2026 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Bay State Waves Green 12–3
99.8%
0.1%
0.00
122 Dec 28, 2025 Bay State Waves Green @ Boch Blazers - Busch 0–10
0.1%
99.8%
0.00
123 Feb 15, 2026 Bay State Waves Green @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–10
0.1%
99.8%
0.00
124 Feb 15, 2026 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Bay State Waves Green 16–1
99.8%
0.1%
0.00