Upset Index

Games sorted by how surprising the result was, based on pre-game Dixon-Coles probabilities.

All Upsets only Low confidence
# Date Matchup Result Pre-game odds Surprisal (bits)
1 Nov 29, 2025 Jr Mounties 2016 @ NorthStars - Tuccio 4–3
0.1%
99.7%
10.21 UPSET
2 Jan 04, 2026 Boch Blazers @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 3–3
99.6%
0.1%
8.72 UPSET
3 Nov 16, 2025 Shamrocks - Tavares @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 3–3
95.5%
1.7%
5.17 UPSET
4 Oct 04, 2025 Top Gun - Lemire @ Shamrocks - Tavares 1–5
92.1%
3.5%
4.82 UPSET
5 Nov 08, 2025 NorthStars - Tuccio @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 4–6
85.3%
8.8%
3.51 UPSET
6 Oct 25, 2025 Spartans - Flood @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 4–3
9.7%
82.3%
3.36 UPSET
7 Dec 14, 2025 Northeast Generals - Miller @ NorthStars - Tuccio 5–2
12.2%
76.8%
3.04 UPSET
8 Jan 11, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Jr Mounties 2016 4–4
23.6%
63.9%
3.00 UPSET
9 Feb 21, 2026 NorthStars - Tuccio @ Spartans - Flood 5–5
68.8%
18.6%
2.99 UPSET
10 Jan 04, 2026 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Spartans - Flood 5–6
76.9%
13.4%
2.90 UPSET
11 Dec 28, 2025 NorthStars - Tuccio @ Boch Blazers 2–2
47.2%
39.2%
2.88
12 Feb 14, 2026 Northeast Generals - Miller @ Top Gun - Lemire 6–6
60.6%
24.4%
2.73 UPSET
13 Dec 21, 2025 NorthStars - Tuccio @ IHC West - Carchia 1–8
74.0%
15.5%
2.69 UPSET
14 Nov 29, 2025 IHC West - Carchia @ Boch Blazers 8–7
15.5%
76.2%
2.69 UPSET
15 Oct 11, 2025 Top Gun - Lemire @ NorthStars - Tuccio 6–4
15.7%
71.5%
2.67 UPSET
16 Nov 01, 2025 Boch Blazers @ Shamrocks - Tavares 3–4
74.9%
16.0%
2.64 UPSET
17 Feb 07, 2026 Top Gun - Lemire @ Shamrocks - Tavares 2–2
38.5%
44.9%
2.59
18 Dec 20, 2025 Shamrocks - Tavares @ Boch Blazers 4–2
17.2%
73.1%
2.54 UPSET
19 Feb 15, 2026 IHC West - Carchia @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 11–1
17.2%
72.5%
2.54 UPSET
20 Dec 07, 2025 Shamrocks - Tavares @ Top Gun - Lemire 7–1
18.2%
68.7%
2.46
21 Feb 08, 2026 NorthStars - Tuccio @ IHC West - Carchia 0–2
69.7%
18.6%
2.43
22 Nov 08, 2025 Spartans - Flood @ Top Gun - Lemire 3–1
19.3%
67.3%
2.37
23 Nov 30, 2025 Jr Mounties 2016 @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 5–9
68.7%
19.7%
2.34
24 Jan 03, 2026 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 5–7
69.1%
21.1%
2.25
25 Jan 31, 2026 Northeast Generals - Miller @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 3–2
23.0%
63.0%
2.12
26 Oct 26, 2025 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 6–4
24.2%
61.0%
2.04
27 Nov 02, 2025 Top Gun - Lemire @ NorthStars - Tuccio 3–1
24.5%
59.7%
2.03
28 Feb 21, 2026 Northeast Generals - Miller @ Shamrocks - Tavares 1–2
59.8%
24.9%
2.00
29 Oct 11, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 4–5
55.3%
28.3%
1.82
30 Jan 24, 2026 Boch Blazers @ Northeast Generals - Miller 2–7
58.0%
28.5%
1.81
31 Jan 04, 2026 Shamrocks - Tavares @ Northeast Generals - Miller 3–2
29.0%
55.5%
1.79
32 Dec 07, 2025 Boch Blazers @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 3–9
61.4%
29.3%
1.77
33 Feb 07, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Jr Mounties 2016 5–3
29.6%
57.6%
1.76
34 Sep 21, 2025 IHC West - Carchia @ Spartans - Flood 5–4
29.9%
57.1% ⚠
1.74
35 Feb 21, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ IHC West - Carchia 4–8
59.0%
30.3%
1.72
36 Feb 14, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ NorthStars - Tuccio 8–2
30.6%
56.4%
1.71
37 Dec 20, 2025 Northeast Generals - Miller @ IHC West - Carchia 3–6
52.8%
33.3%
1.59
38 Nov 15, 2025 Top Gun - Lemire @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 7–8
53.0%
34.5%
1.54
39 Dec 21, 2025 Shamrocks - Tavares @ Top Gun - Lemire 4–3
35.8%
47.9%
1.48
40 Oct 19, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ Spartans - Flood 11–3
37.1%
51.8%
1.43
41 Feb 01, 2026 IHC West - Carchia @ Shamrocks - Tavares 4–6
47.8%
37.6%
1.41
42 Dec 07, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 3–1
38.2%
46.2%
1.39
43 Jan 24, 2026 Spartans - Flood @ Shamrocks - Tavares 1–4
46.7%
38.4%
1.38
44 Dec 13, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ Northeast Generals - Miller 8–2
39.4%
48.2%
1.34
45 Dec 28, 2025 Spartans - Flood @ IHC West - Carchia 5–4
39.9%
46.7%
1.33
46 Jan 10, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ Boch Blazers 2–12
48.3%
41.2%
1.28
47 Nov 30, 2025 NorthStars - Tuccio @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 1–6
41.9%
42.1%
1.25
48 Nov 09, 2025 Top Gun - Lemire @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 0–6
39.4%
43.8%
1.19
49 Jan 25, 2026 Top Gun - Lemire @ IHC West - Carchia 1–6
40.8%
44.6%
1.16
50 Feb 22, 2026 Northeast Generals - Miller @ Boch Blazers 0–5
40.7%
45.1%
1.15
51 Feb 08, 2026 Top Gun - Lemire @ Spartans - Flood 5–6
39.3%
45.4%
1.14
52 Feb 14, 2026 Shamrocks - Tavares @ IHC West - Carchia 3–6
37.7%
47.7%
1.07
53 Feb 22, 2026 NorthStars - Tuccio @ Northeast Generals - Miller 6–2
48.2%
34.3%
1.05
54 Dec 13, 2025 Top Gun - Lemire @ Boch Blazers 0–4
38.3%
48.5%
1.04
55 Dec 27, 2025 Shamrocks - Tavares @ IHC West - Carchia 3–5
37.3%
48.7%
1.04
56 Nov 01, 2025 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ NorthStars - Tuccio 1–4
35.5%
48.9%
1.03
57 Jan 11, 2026 Boch Blazers @ NorthStars - Tuccio 3–5
36.0%
50.0%
1.00
58 Dec 27, 2025 Spartans - Flood @ Northeast Generals - Miller 1–3
35.3%
50.3%
0.99
59 Jan 03, 2026 IHC West - Carchia @ Northeast Generals - Miller 3–4
34.7%
51.3%
0.96
60 Nov 15, 2025 Shamrocks - Tavares @ Spartans - Flood 2–3
34.3%
51.5%
0.96
61 Jan 11, 2026 Northeast Generals - Miller @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 0–3
35.3%
52.4%
0.93
62 Feb 21, 2026 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Boch Blazers 6–3
53.5%
33.9%
0.90
63 Feb 14, 2026 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Northeast Generals - Miller 3–1
54.7%
29.9%
0.87
64 Dec 06, 2025 Spartans - Flood @ Boch Blazers 4–7
32.9%
55.1%
0.86
65 Dec 14, 2025 Spartans - Flood @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 3–12
33.6%
55.3%
0.85
66 Feb 01, 2026 Northeast Generals - Miller @ Spartans - Flood 5–1
55.6%
29.6%
0.85
67 Feb 22, 2026 IHC West - Carchia @ Spartans - Flood 6–1
56.4%
31.0%
0.83
68 Sep 27, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ NorthStars - Tuccio 2–9
30.5%
57.1%
0.81
69 Nov 02, 2025 Boch Blazers @ Spartans - Flood 6–3
57.2%
31.2%
0.81
70 Dec 20, 2025 NorthStars - Tuccio @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 3–2
57.8%
30.5%
0.79
71 Jan 24, 2026 Boch Blazers @ Northeast Generals - Miller 7–5
58.0%
28.5%
0.79
72 Dec 21, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Jr Mounties 2016 2–3
29.2%
58.2%
0.78
73 Jan 17, 2026 Northeast Generals - Miller @ NorthStars - Tuccio 2–3
25.1%
58.7%
0.77
74 Nov 15, 2025 Jr Mounties 2016 @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 6–3
59.2%
29.9%
0.76
75 Jan 03, 2026 NorthStars - Tuccio @ Top Gun - Lemire 4–1
60.0%
24.7%
0.74
76 Oct 25, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ Shamrocks - Tavares 6–5
62.6%
27.4%
0.68
77 Oct 26, 2025 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Boch Blazers 5–4
63.0%
25.6%
0.67
78 Jan 04, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ Top Gun - Lemire 6–3
64.0%
25.0%
0.64
79 Jan 18, 2026 Boch Blazers @ Top Gun - Lemire 7–1
64.6%
23.4%
0.63
80 Feb 15, 2026 Shamrocks - Tavares @ NorthStars - Tuccio 1–5
20.2%
65.4%
0.61
81 Dec 21, 2025 Boch Blazers @ Spartans - Flood 7–4
65.6%
23.7%
0.61
82 Feb 07, 2026 Spartans - Flood @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 3–6
24.0%
65.8%
0.60
83 Jan 31, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ Shamrocks - Tavares 4–2
66.6%
22.7%
0.59
84 Dec 27, 2025 Jr Mounties 2016 @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 6–4
67.7%
20.7%
0.56
85 Jan 24, 2026 IHC West - Carchia @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 4–6
22.9%
67.9%
0.56
86 Jan 31, 2026 Spartans - Flood @ Boch Blazers 3–4
21.7%
67.9%
0.56
87 Jan 10, 2026 NorthStars - Tuccio @ Shamrocks - Tavares 3–1
68.2%
18.4%
0.55
88 Feb 15, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ Top Gun - Lemire 10–4
68.9%
20.9%
0.54
89 Dec 21, 2025 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 5–3
69.4%
20.9%
0.53
90 Feb 01, 2026 Boch Blazers @ Top Gun - Lemire 6–4
69.7%
19.5%
0.52
91 Dec 20, 2025 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Top Gun - Lemire 5–1
70.3%
17.4%
0.51
92 Jan 17, 2026 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Top Gun - Lemire 6–2
71.5%
16.7%
0.48
93 Nov 09, 2025 Spartans - Flood @ NorthStars - Tuccio 1–5
16.0%
72.8%
0.46
94 Oct 18, 2025 Boch Blazers @ NorthStars - Tuccio 2–5
17.4%
73.6%
0.44
95 Oct 18, 2025 Spartans - Flood @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 3–6
15.3%
74.0%
0.43
96 Jan 11, 2026 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Shamrocks - Tavares 6–3
74.9%
14.3%
0.42
97 Nov 16, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ IHC West - Carchia 8–4
75.7%
16.8%
0.40
98 Dec 13, 2025 NorthStars - Tuccio @ Shamrocks - Tavares 2–1
75.9%
13.2%
0.40
99 Nov 02, 2025 Shamrocks - Tavares @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 6–7
12.6%
77.4%
0.37
100 Nov 15, 2025 IHC West - Carchia @ Boch Blazers 4–7
14.4%
77.6%
0.37
101 Oct 25, 2025 IHC West - Carchia @ Top Gun - Lemire 1–2
12.7%
78.1%
0.36
102 Dec 14, 2025 Shamrocks - Tavares @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 2–8
10.5%
80.6%
0.31
103 Oct 05, 2025 Boch Blazers @ Shamrocks - Tavares 4–2
80.9%
12.7%
0.31
104 Oct 05, 2025 IHC West - Carchia @ Jr Mounties 2016 13–4
83.0%
10.8%
0.27
105 Sep 28, 2025 IHC West - Carchia @ NorthStars - Tuccio 1–10
7.9%
85.1%
0.23
106 Dec 06, 2025 IHC West - Carchia @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 5–7
8.0%
85.5%
0.23
107 Dec 21, 2025 Northeast Generals - Miller @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 16–1
89.4%
4.5%
0.16
108 Sep 21, 2025 Shamrocks - Tavares @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 6–2
89.5%
6.5% ⚠
0.16
109 Sep 28, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 6–9
5.9%
89.6%
0.16
110 Feb 21, 2026 Top Gun - Lemire @ Jr Mounties 2016 10–3
90.5%
4.9%
0.14
111 Feb 22, 2026 Shamrocks - Tavares @ Jr Mounties 2016 10–0
90.6%
4.6%
0.14
112 Oct 26, 2025 Shamrocks - Tavares @ Jr Mounties 2016 7–2
90.8%
5.2%
0.14
113 Jan 10, 2026 Jr Mounties 2016 @ Top Gun - Lemire 1–7
4.2%
91.6%
0.13
114 Dec 28, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Shamrocks - Tavares 0–7
3.7%
91.7%
0.12
115 Jan 31, 2026 Top Gun - Lemire @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 6–3
92.1%
3.5%
0.12
116 Feb 12, 2026 Top Gun - Lemire @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 9–1
92.7%
3.1%
0.11
117 Feb 21, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Shamrocks - Tavares 0–6
2.9%
92.9%
0.11
118 Oct 04, 2025 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ IHC West - Carchia 7–2
92.9%
3.5%
0.11
119 Dec 20, 2025 Jr Mounties 2016 @ IHC West - Carchia 2–7
3.7%
93.2%
0.10
120 Dec 06, 2025 Shamrocks - Tavares @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 5–3
93.3%
3.0%
0.10
121 Jan 03, 2026 Jr Mounties 2016 @ Spartans - Flood 3–8
3.3%
93.4%
0.10
122 Sep 21, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ Boch Blazers 8–9
3.9%
93.5% ⚠
0.10
123 Feb 14, 2026 Spartans - Flood @ Jr Mounties 2016 6–5
93.5%
3.3%
0.10
124 Nov 22, 2025 Jr Mounties 2016 @ Shamrocks - Tavares 1–2
3.3%
93.5%
0.10
125 Nov 23, 2025 IHC West - Carchia @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 9–2
93.8%
2.7%
0.09
126 Oct 12, 2025 IHC West - Carchia @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 9–0
94.2%
2.7%
0.09
127 Feb 22, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Top Gun - Lemire 1–4
2.3%
94.3%
0.09
128 Nov 01, 2025 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ IHC West - Carchia 0–7
2.3%
94.9%
0.08
129 Dec 20, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Northeast Generals - Miller 1–2
2.0%
95.1%
0.07
130 Jan 03, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Shamrocks - Tavares 0–3
2.0%
95.1%
0.07
131 Feb 15, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Spartans - Flood 1–8
2.0%
95.2%
0.07
132 Jan 04, 2026 Jr Mounties 2016 @ IHC West - Carchia 3–6
2.4%
95.2%
0.07
133 Nov 01, 2025 Jr Mounties 2016 @ Spartans - Flood 1–13
2.3%
95.5%
0.07
134 Dec 28, 2025 Jr Mounties 2016 @ Northeast Generals - Miller 2–7
1.9%
95.8%
0.06
135 Dec 20, 2025 Spartans - Flood @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 6–0
95.8%
1.7%
0.06
136 Feb 15, 2026 Northeast Generals - Miller @ Jr Mounties 2016 10–2
96.0%
1.7%
0.06
137 Jan 10, 2026 Spartans - Flood @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 8–4
96.1%
1.7%
0.06
138 Nov 30, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ IHC West - Carchia 0–10
1.8%
96.2%
0.06
139 Jan 11, 2026 IHC West - Carchia @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 10–5
96.4%
1.6%
0.05
140 Oct 04, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Spartans - Flood 0–8
1.4%
96.7%
0.05
141 Feb 08, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Northeast Generals - Miller 0–8
1.1%
96.8%
0.05
142 Feb 07, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Northeast Generals - Miller 1–6
1.1%
96.8%
0.05
143 Dec 14, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Top Gun - Lemire 2–3
1.2%
96.8%
0.05
144 Jan 31, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ IHC West - Carchia 0–9
1.3%
96.9%
0.04
145 Dec 13, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ IHC West - Carchia 1–5
1.3%
97.1%
0.04
146 Feb 21, 2026 Northeast Generals - Miller @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 7–0
97.3%
1.0%
0.04
147 Oct 05, 2025 Spartans - Flood @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 8–0
97.6%
0.9%
0.04
148 Jan 04, 2026 NorthStars - Tuccio @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 10–0
98.1%
0.7%
0.03
149 Jan 31, 2026 Jr Mounties 2016 @ NorthStars - Tuccio 0–6
0.6%
98.4%
0.02
150 Jan 24, 2026 NorthStars - Tuccio @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 8–0
98.5%
0.5%
0.02
151 Feb 15, 2026 Jr Mounties 2016 @ Boch Blazers 2–13
0.5%
98.8%
0.02
152 Dec 06, 2025 Jr Mounties 2016 @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 5–8
0.5%
98.9%
0.02
153 Feb 07, 2026 Jr Mounties 2016 @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 1–15
0.5%
98.9%
0.02
154 Feb 20, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 2–15
0.3%
99.1%
0.01
155 Oct 19, 2025 Top Gun - Lemire @ Jr Mounties 2016 8–2
99.1%
0.4%
0.01
156 Dec 14, 2025 Boch Blazers @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 14–1
99.2%
0.3%
0.01
157 Feb 08, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ Jr Mounties 2016 8–3
99.3%
0.3%
0.01
158 Sep 27, 2025 Jr Mounties 2016 @ Top Gun - Lemire 2–9
0.2%
99.3%
0.01
159 Feb 01, 2026 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Jr Mounties 2016 7–3
99.3%
0.3%
0.01
160 Jan 03, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Boch Blazers 3–11
0.2%
99.4%
0.01
161 Jan 16, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 0–9
0.2%
99.4%
0.01
162 Feb 14, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Boch Blazers 0–3
0.2%
99.5%
0.01
163 Feb 22, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 2–10
0.2%
99.5%
0.01
164 Feb 22, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 1–14
0.2%
99.5%
0.01
165 Jan 10, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 1–7
0.2%
99.5%
0.01
166 Nov 22, 2025 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 7–0
99.5%
0.1%
0.01
167 Oct 18, 2025 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 2–12
0.2%
99.6%
0.01
168 Oct 25, 2025 Boch Blazers @ Jr Mounties 2016 10–4
99.6%
0.2%
0.01
169 Nov 09, 2025 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Boch Blazers 1–7
0.1%
99.6%
0.01
170 Feb 01, 2026 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 4–7
0.1%
99.6%
0.01
171 Dec 13, 2025 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Jr Mounties 2016 4–0
99.6%
0.1%
0.01
172 Nov 16, 2025 Boch Blazers @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 12–2
99.7%
0.1%
0.00
173 Dec 19, 2025 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 3–2
99.7%
0.1%
0.00
174 Nov 22, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 11–4
99.8%
0.1%
0.00
175 Nov 16, 2025 NorthStars - Tuccio @ Jr Mounties 2016 10–1
99.8%
0.1%
0.00
176 Dec 05, 2025 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 12–1
99.9%
0.0%
0.00
177 Oct 19, 2025 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 0–8
0.0%
99.9%
0.00
178 Sep 20, 2025 Jr Mounties 2016 @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 3–11
0.0%
99.9% ⚠
0.00
179 Oct 26, 2025 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ NorthStars - Tuccio 1–4
0.0%
99.9%
0.00
180 Oct 25, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ NorthStars - Tuccio 2–9
0.0%
99.9%
0.00
181 Sep 27, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Boch Blazers 2–11
0.0%
100.0%
0.00