Upset Index

Games sorted by how surprising the result was, based on pre-game Dixon-Coles probabilities.

All Upsets only Low confidence
# Date Matchup Result Pre-game odds Surprisal (bits)
1 Oct 18, 2025 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–7
96.1%
1.4%
6.14 UPSET
2 Oct 18, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 5–1
4.5%
90.8%
4.48 UPSET
3 Jan 10, 2026 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 2–2
91.6%
3.5%
4.34 UPSET
4 Dec 20, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 1–3
87.0%
6.9%
3.86 UPSET
5 Dec 07, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–3
12.2%
78.9%
3.49 UPSET
6 Nov 02, 2025 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Minuteman Flames 3–3
81.6%
8.3%
3.31 UPSET
7 Feb 22, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–3
18.4%
70.4%
3.16 UPSET
8 Oct 26, 2025 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ South Shore Kings 3–4
78.1%
11.8%
3.08 UPSET
9 Jan 24, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 6–6
62.0%
24.8%
2.92 UPSET
10 Dec 07, 2025 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 6–4
13.3%
76.2%
2.91 UPSET
11 Nov 15, 2025 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–2
50.5%
35.7%
2.85
12 Sep 28, 2025 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–2
47.4%
38.7%
2.85
13 Dec 07, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 4–4
27.8%
58.2%
2.84 UPSET
14 Jan 31, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 5–5
18.5%
67.3%
2.82 UPSET
15 Sep 28, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 4–4
18.8%
66.8%
2.80 UPSET
16 Jan 04, 2026 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ South Shore Kings 1–1
52.7%
32.6%
2.76 UPSET
17 Nov 16, 2025 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 2–3
75.6%
14.8%
2.76 UPSET
18 Nov 01, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 1–1
45.5%
38.8%
2.67
19 Nov 02, 2025 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 2–4
72.7%
15.9%
2.66 UPSET
20 Nov 08, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 3–3
21.7%
61.9%
2.60 UPSET
21 Nov 15, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 1–2
71.9%
16.5%
2.60 UPSET
22 Jan 31, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 3–1
18.5%
67.3%
2.43
23 Feb 21, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 7–2
19.2%
68.8%
2.38
24 Nov 01, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 2–1
19.2%
71.1%
2.38
25 Feb 08, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 4–2
24.7%
62.7%
2.02
26 Nov 30, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 3–1
24.8%
62.0%
2.01
27 Feb 08, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 3–6
60.5%
25.1%
2.00
28 Dec 14, 2025 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ South Shore Kings 1–5
58.4%
27.7%
1.85
29 Nov 09, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 0–1
51.3%
32.0%
1.64
30 Nov 09, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 2–3
51.3%
32.0%
1.64
31 Nov 23, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–2
32.4%
53.5%
1.63
32 Oct 04, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 5–8
54.7%
33.2%
1.59
33 Dec 21, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–5
34.7%
51.2%
1.53
34 Dec 14, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–5
48.6%
37.1%
1.43
35 Jan 11, 2026 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun 2–7
46.0%
37.3%
1.42
36 Oct 05, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 4–2
38.4%
50.0%
1.38
37 Feb 01, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 6–7
46.0%
39.9%
1.33
38 Sep 21, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 2–0
45.7%
33.9% ⚠
1.13
39 Jan 11, 2026 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun 5–2
46.0%
37.3%
1.12
40 Oct 25, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–4
38.4%
47.7%
1.07
41 Nov 22, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 3–6
36.0%
48.2%
1.05
42 Dec 06, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–5
35.5%
49.2%
1.02
43 Feb 21, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–9
36.7%
49.6%
1.01
44 Oct 11, 2025 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–3
52.0%
32.8%
0.94
45 Nov 22, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 4–1
52.1%
32.8%
0.94
46 Feb 22, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 7–1
53.5%
31.1%
0.90
47 Dec 20, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 4–1
54.4%
30.4%
0.88
48 Nov 15, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–5
29.9%
56.9%
0.81
49 Feb 14, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–5
28.2%
57.0%
0.81
50 Jan 25, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–6
27.2%
57.8%
0.79
51 Feb 07, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–3
27.7%
57.8%
0.79
52 Nov 08, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–2
58.5%
24.9%
0.77
53 Oct 12, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–1
59.2%
23.6%
0.76
54 Oct 11, 2025 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–4
59.8%
24.8%
0.74
55 Oct 26, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 5–2
59.8%
28.2%
0.74
56 Jan 04, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 3–2
60.5%
26.3%
0.73
57 Nov 23, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Top Gun 0–4
25.1%
61.0%
0.71
58 Nov 22, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 1–4
26.8%
61.3%
0.71
59 Oct 11, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 2–7
23.0%
61.8%
0.69
60 Nov 30, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 8–6
61.8%
24.8%
0.69
61 Nov 08, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 2–8
21.7%
61.9%
0.69
62 Dec 13, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 3–8
24.7%
62.3%
0.68
63 Jan 04, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 1–2
23.4%
62.8%
0.67
64 Dec 14, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–3
63.0%
23.2%
0.67
65 Oct 26, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–3
22.3%
63.0%
0.67
66 Jan 11, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–4
63.7%
23.3%
0.65
67 Jan 24, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–2
22.5%
64.1%
0.64
68 Dec 13, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 5–9
23.8%
64.2%
0.64
69 Nov 16, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 1–3
22.1%
64.2%
0.64
70 Sep 27, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 4–6
18.9%
65.6% ⚠
0.61
71 Jan 25, 2026 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–3
66.9%
21.9%
0.58
72 Jan 10, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Top Gun 2–7
17.7%
70.1%
0.51
73 Feb 08, 2026 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 3–9
16.6%
70.8%
0.50
74 Nov 01, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 4–2
71.0%
17.3%
0.49
75 Dec 13, 2025 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 1–3
16.7%
71.7%
0.48
76 Nov 15, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–6
16.4%
71.8%
0.48
77 Nov 15, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 6–0
71.9%
16.5%
0.48
78 Feb 22, 2026 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 5–3
73.1%
15.8%
0.45
79 Jan 03, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 4–3
73.4%
15.9%
0.45
80 Feb 01, 2026 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 6–2
73.5%
15.6%
0.44
81 Nov 23, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 6–5
74.1%
15.4%
0.43
82 Feb 01, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 3–2
74.4%
14.7%
0.43
83 Dec 21, 2025 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Minuteman Flames 2–3
15.1%
74.8%
0.42
84 Nov 02, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–2
76.1%
12.6%
0.39
85 Oct 19, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–2
76.2%
12.5%
0.39
86 Dec 14, 2025 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 6–2
76.6%
14.2%
0.38
87 Sep 27, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–7
14.3%
76.9% ⚠
0.38
88 Nov 09, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–5
9.8%
77.2%
0.37
89 Jan 31, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–8
12.8%
77.8%
0.36
90 Dec 21, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ South Shore Kings 6–3
78.3%
12.0%
0.35
91 Jan 03, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–2
78.4%
12.2%
0.35
92 Dec 06, 2025 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Minuteman Flames 2–4
12.6%
78.4%
0.35
93 Feb 21, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 2–7
12.6%
78.5%
0.35
94 Jan 31, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 3–6
12.7%
78.6%
0.35
95 Sep 27, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 6–4
80.0%
9.1% ⚠
0.32
96 Oct 25, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 5–1
80.9%
10.8%
0.31
97 Feb 21, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 1–3
10.0%
81.0%
0.30
98 Feb 21, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ South Shore Kings 5–2
81.0%
10.0%
0.30
99 Oct 19, 2025 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 7–2
81.5%
10.9%
0.30
100 Nov 02, 2025 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Minuteman Flames 4–1
81.6%
8.3%
0.29
101 Jan 11, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 6–0
81.8%
10.0%
0.29
102 Feb 14, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–7
9.7%
82.6%
0.28
103 Jan 10, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 2–0
82.7%
9.5%
0.27
104 Feb 07, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 2–5
9.0%
83.3%
0.26
105 Feb 15, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 1–6
8.4%
84.0%
0.25
106 Oct 12, 2025 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Boston Jr Terriers 1–6
9.0%
84.5%
0.24
107 Jan 31, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 6–1
84.7%
7.7%
0.24
108 Nov 09, 2025 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–3
7.9%
85.7%
0.22
109 Feb 07, 2026 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Islanders Hockey Club 5–8
7.3%
85.8%
0.22
110 Nov 08, 2025 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–7
6.7%
86.0%
0.22
111 Nov 29, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 6–0
86.2%
7.2%
0.21
112 Nov 29, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 8–5
86.2%
7.2%
0.21
113 Feb 14, 2026 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–11
6.8%
86.4%
0.21
114 Dec 06, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 1–7
6.7%
87.1%
0.20
115 Feb 15, 2026 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–5
6.3%
87.7%
0.19
116 Dec 21, 2025 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 7–2
88.5%
5.9%
0.18
117 Sep 28, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 6–3
89.5%
5.5%
0.16
118 Jan 03, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–7
5.3%
89.8%
0.15
119 Jan 11, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–10
4.6%
90.3%
0.15
120 Feb 22, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–7
4.4%
91.1%
0.13
121 Feb 07, 2026 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 7–1
91.4%
4.1%
0.13
122 Jan 10, 2026 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 2–0
91.6%
3.5%
0.13
123 Feb 21, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 3–6
3.6%
92.3%
0.12
124 Oct 12, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–5
3.6%
92.5%
0.11
125 Dec 13, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–8
3.3%
92.8%
0.11
126 Jan 24, 2026 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 8–1
93.0%
3.2%
0.10
127 Nov 16, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 10–4
93.4%
3.1%
0.10
128 Nov 02, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 5–1
94.1%
2.0%
0.09
129 Nov 22, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 3–0
94.7%
2.3%
0.08
130 Oct 04, 2025 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Top Gun 3–6
2.4%
94.9%
0.08
131 Nov 01, 2025 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ South Shore Kings 6–1
95.7%
1.4%
0.06
132 Nov 01, 2025 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ South Shore Kings 6–0
95.7%
1.4%
0.06
133 Oct 05, 2025 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 12–0
96.0%
1.4%
0.06
134 Dec 20, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 4–7
1.1%
97.3%
0.04
135 Dec 20, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 2–5
1.1%
97.3%
0.04
136 Sep 21, 2025 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 6–3
97.6%
1.2% ⚠
0.03
137 Sep 14, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 5–1
98.2%
1.8% ⚠
0.03