Upset Index

Games sorted by how surprising the result was, based on pre-game Dixon-Coles probabilities.

All Upsets only Low confidence
# Date Matchup Result Pre-game odds Surprisal (bits)
1 Nov 23, 2025 Spartans - Dovich @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy 3–3
98.9%
0.4%
7.08 UPSET
2 Jan 04, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 5–7
94.8%
2.4%
5.38 UPSET
3 Dec 21, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo @ Top Gun - Fairburn 1–2
93.4%
2.7%
5.21 UPSET
4 Nov 16, 2025 BOSTON VIPERS 2015 @ MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish 2–2
2.6%
94.1%
4.93 UPSET
5 Oct 11, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo @ Manchester Flames - King 2–2
92.2%
3.2%
4.44 UPSET
6 Jan 17, 2026 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Spartans - Dovich 4–4
6.9%
87.1%
4.07 UPSET
7 Nov 29, 2025 Top Gun - Fairburn @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy 2–2
88.0%
5.9%
4.05 UPSET
8 Feb 21, 2026 Top Gun - Fairburn @ Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo 2–2
6.2%
87.4%
3.96 UPSET
9 Dec 07, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Gorman @ Spartans - Dovich 3–3
7.6%
83.3%
3.45 UPSET
10 Oct 26, 2025 Top Gun - Fairburn @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 3–3
55.6%
33.8%
3.24 UPSET
11 Jan 04, 2026 Manchester Flames - King @ MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish 1–1
15.4%
73.3%
3.14 UPSET
12 Dec 13, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2015 UG @ Boch Blazers - Melanson 4–4
74.3%
13.2%
3.01 UPSET
13 Jan 24, 2026 MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish @ Minuteman Flames - Gorman 1–2
76.5%
13.1%
2.94 UPSET
14 Dec 13, 2025 Top Gun - Fairburn @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 3–3
42.1%
44.6%
2.91
15 Dec 28, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2015 UG @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 3–3
61.4%
25.3%
2.91 UPSET
16 Oct 04, 2025 Manchester Flames - King @ Bay State Breakers 2015 UG 2–1
13.4%
71.9%
2.90 UPSET
17 Nov 01, 2025 Top Gun - Fairburn @ Minuteman Flames - Gorman 2–2
69.0%
17.3%
2.87 UPSET
18 Dec 27, 2025 Boch Blazers - Melanson @ Bay State Breakers 2015 UG 4–4
18.5%
67.6%
2.84 UPSET
19 Oct 11, 2025 Top Gun - Fairburn @ Boch Blazers - Melanson 3–8
74.7%
14.0%
2.84 UPSET
20 Feb 08, 2026 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Top Gun - Fairburn 4–4
46.0%
40.0%
2.84
21 Nov 08, 2025 MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish @ Manchester Flames - King 3–3
69.6%
16.3%
2.82 UPSET
22 Nov 22, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Gorman @ Bay State Breakers 2015 UG 3–3
10.2%
75.6%
2.82 UPSET
23 Feb 22, 2026 Boch Blazers - Melanson @ BOSTON VIPERS 2015 3–3
51.9%
33.4%
2.76 UPSET
24 Jan 11, 2026 Spartans - Dovich @ MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish 3–3
54.9%
30.0%
2.72 UPSET
25 Jan 31, 2026 Manchester Flames - King @ Top Gun - Fairburn 3–3
51.5%
33.2%
2.71 UPSET
26 Feb 22, 2026 Manchester Flames - King @ Top Gun - Fairburn 2–2
41.0%
43.3%
2.67
27 Jan 17, 2026 BOSTON VIPERS 2015 @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy 2–4
71.8%
16.7%
2.58 UPSET
28 Dec 20, 2025 Spartans - Dovich @ Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo 3–1
17.8%
68.4%
2.49
29 Dec 21, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2015 UG @ Minuteman Flames - Gorman 1–2
63.5%
20.5%
2.29
30 Feb 22, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2015 UG @ MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish 4–3
20.8%
65.9%
2.27
31 Jan 10, 2026 MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish @ Bay State Breakers 2015 UG 4–7
55.8%
23.6%
2.08
32 Dec 14, 2025 Boch Blazers - Melanson @ Manchester Flames - King 3–2
23.6%
63.2%
2.08
33 Nov 29, 2025 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ BOSTON VIPERS 2015 3–4
64.7%
24.6%
2.03
34 Oct 04, 2025 Spartans - Dovich @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 11–3
24.6%
63.8%
2.02
35 Feb 22, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo @ MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish 3–4
61.2%
24.8%
2.01
36 Nov 30, 2025 BOSTON VIPERS 2015 @ Top Gun - Fairburn 6–4
25.3%
61.1%
1.98
37 Nov 15, 2025 MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish @ Spartans - Dovich 1–4
58.4%
26.1%
1.94
38 Jan 31, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Gorman @ Bay State Breakers 2015 UG 4–2
26.2%
58.7%
1.93
39 Oct 05, 2025 Top Gun - Fairburn @ Bay State Breakers 2015 UG 3–2
27.4%
55.9%
1.87
40 Nov 01, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo @ MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish 0–4
56.0%
27.5%
1.86
41 Oct 26, 2025 Spartans - Dovich @ Bay State Breakers 2015 UG 5–1
29.0%
52.1%
1.79
42 Dec 06, 2025 MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish @ Spartans - Dovich 1–8
52.6%
30.7%
1.70
43 Jan 31, 2026 Manchester Flames - King @ Minuteman Flames - Gorman 0–4
50.9%
33.6%
1.57
44 Nov 08, 2025 BOSTON VIPERS 2015 @ Boch Blazers - Melanson 8–4
34.0%
51.7%
1.56
45 Jan 25, 2026 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Top Gun - Fairburn 3–6
51.9%
34.4%
1.54
46 Dec 20, 2025 Top Gun - Fairburn @ Minuteman Flames - Gorman 1–4
48.2%
34.8%
1.52
47 Nov 02, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Gorman @ BOSTON VIPERS 2015 5–2
35.0%
48.0%
1.51
48 Sep 27, 2025 MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish @ Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo 1–3
49.2%
35.7% ⚠
1.49
49 Nov 30, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2015 UG @ Manchester Flames - King 1–3
45.3%
35.9%
1.48
50 Dec 06, 2025 BOSTON VIPERS 2015 @ Minuteman Flames - Gorman 0–3
45.4%
38.1%
1.39
51 Nov 16, 2025 Boch Blazers - Melanson @ Minuteman Flames - Gorman 4–0
38.6%
43.0%
1.37
52 Nov 23, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Gorman @ BOSTON VIPERS 2015 4–3
40.7%
42.1%
1.30
53 Feb 07, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Gorman @ Top Gun - Fairburn 1–4
42.7%
41.0%
1.29
54 Feb 22, 2026 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Manchester Flames - King 3–1
43.9%
42.9%
1.19
55 Dec 14, 2025 BOSTON VIPERS 2015 @ Minuteman Flames - Gorman 4–6
38.7%
44.5%
1.17
56 Nov 30, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2015 UG @ Manchester Flames - King 6–1
45.3%
35.9%
1.14
57 Jan 03, 2026 Boch Blazers - Melanson @ BOSTON VIPERS 2015 5–0
46.0%
39.1%
1.12
58 Oct 18, 2025 Top Gun - Fairburn @ Manchester Flames - King 2–4
36.5%
47.4%
1.08
59 Jan 03, 2026 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Minuteman Flames - Gorman 6–2
47.9%
37.5%
1.06
60 Jan 11, 2026 Boch Blazers - Melanson @ Minuteman Flames - Gorman 2–5
36.2%
48.0%
1.06
61 Dec 27, 2025 Manchester Flames - King @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 6–3
50.8%
36.3%
0.98
62 Feb 01, 2026 Boch Blazers - Melanson @ Top Gun - Fairburn 1–4
31.1%
53.7%
0.90
63 Feb 15, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo @ Spartans - Dovich 4–0
54.3%
30.7%
0.88
64 Dec 13, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Gorman @ Manchester Flames - King 3–7
28.6%
54.7%
0.87
65 Jan 03, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2015 UG @ Top Gun - Fairburn 2–0
55.7%
27.7%
0.84
66 Dec 20, 2025 Boch Blazers - Melanson @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 5–6
30.8%
56.3%
0.83
67 Dec 20, 2025 MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish @ Bay State Breakers 2015 UG 5–1
56.7%
26.9%
0.82
68 Nov 30, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Gorman @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 4–6
28.8%
57.0%
0.81
69 Jan 10, 2026 Top Gun - Fairburn @ Bay State Breakers 2015 UG 0–1
22.7%
57.3%
0.80
70 Feb 15, 2026 Top Gun - Fairburn @ Boch Blazers - Melanson 6–2
58.0%
27.3%
0.79
71 Nov 16, 2025 Manchester Flames - King @ Spartans - Dovich 1–4
26.3%
58.1%
0.78
72 Oct 04, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Gorman @ Boch Blazers - Melanson 1–2
23.9%
58.7%
0.77
73 Jan 10, 2026 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boch Blazers - Melanson 5–3
59.1%
28.7%
0.76
74 Jan 10, 2026 Manchester Flames - King @ Boch Blazers - Melanson 3–1
60.1%
25.3%
0.73
75 Oct 18, 2025 Boch Blazers - Melanson @ Bay State Breakers 2015 UG 0–5
21.4%
60.6%
0.72
76 Dec 28, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2015 UG @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 6–5
61.4%
25.3%
0.70
77 Dec 21, 2025 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ BOSTON VIPERS 2015 6–4
61.5%
26.7%
0.70
78 Dec 07, 2025 Manchester Flames - King @ BOSTON VIPERS 2015 5–2
62.5%
24.4%
0.68
79 Feb 14, 2026 BOSTON VIPERS 2015 @ Top Gun - Fairburn 0–4
22.4%
64.4%
0.63
80 Oct 05, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Gorman @ Manchester Flames - King 3–5
16.3%
64.6%
0.63
81 Nov 09, 2025 Manchester Flames - King @ MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish 2–4
20.0%
64.9%
0.62
82 Nov 09, 2025 Top Gun - Fairburn @ BOSTON VIPERS 2015 3–0
66.2%
22.5%
0.60
83 Nov 15, 2025 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boch Blazers - Melanson 4–3
67.6%
21.9%
0.57
84 Feb 07, 2026 Spartans - Dovich @ Bay State Breakers 2015 UG 3–0
67.9%
19.1%
0.56
85 Nov 29, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo @ Bay State Breakers 2015 UG 5–1
68.3%
16.6%
0.55
86 Dec 20, 2025 Spartans - Dovich @ Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo 3–4
17.8%
68.4%
0.55
87 Feb 15, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2015 UG @ Spartans - Dovich 2–6
18.7%
68.5%
0.55
88 Nov 08, 2025 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Bay State Breakers 2015 UG 1–3
19.5%
68.6%
0.54
89 Feb 21, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2015 UG @ Boch Blazers - Melanson 4–3
68.7%
18.7%
0.54
90 Feb 07, 2026 BOSTON VIPERS 2015 @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy 7–1
68.7%
18.9%
0.54
91 Nov 01, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy @ BOSTON VIPERS 2015 1–5
20.5%
69.4%
0.53
92 Feb 15, 2026 BOSTON VIPERS 2015 @ Manchester Flames - King 1–3
18.2%
70.3%
0.51
93 Oct 25, 2025 Spartans - Dovich @ Boch Blazers - Melanson 7–2
70.6%
16.5%
0.50
94 Nov 15, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Gorman @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy 3–0
70.7%
16.6%
0.50
95 Nov 02, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo @ Spartans - Dovich 4–3
70.8%
16.8%
0.50
96 Nov 30, 2025 Boch Blazers - Melanson @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy 4–1
71.4%
16.9%
0.49
97 Jan 11, 2026 Manchester Flames - King @ BOSTON VIPERS 2015 5–4
71.5%
17.2%
0.48
98 Oct 05, 2025 Boch Blazers - Melanson @ Spartans - Dovich 1–5
14.7%
72.0%
0.47
99 Feb 01, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Gorman @ MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish 2–7
15.8%
72.5%
0.46
100 Jan 11, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2015 UG @ Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo 5–8
15.5%
72.6%
0.46
101 Jan 04, 2026 BOSTON VIPERS 2015 @ Bay State Breakers 2015 UG 0–5
14.6%
73.4%
0.45
102 Jan 24, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy @ Boch Blazers - Melanson 1–3
14.7%
74.4%
0.43
103 Feb 21, 2026 BOSTON VIPERS 2015 @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 3–8
15.9%
74.7%
0.42
104 Nov 29, 2025 Manchester Flames - King @ Boch Blazers - Melanson 4–3
74.7%
13.9%
0.42
105 Feb 08, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Gorman @ MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish 2–5
13.7%
75.5%
0.41
106 Feb 21, 2026 MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish @ Minuteman Flames - Gorman 7–1
76.0%
13.4%
0.40
107 Jan 04, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Gorman @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy 8–1
76.4%
12.1%
0.39
108 Feb 22, 2026 Spartans - Dovich @ Top Gun - Fairburn 6–1
76.4%
13.1%
0.39
109 Dec 27, 2025 MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish @ Manchester Flames - King 3–2
77.3%
12.8%
0.37
110 Feb 08, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2015 UG @ Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo 2–4
11.7%
78.5%
0.35
111 Jan 03, 2026 Manchester Flames - King @ Spartans - Dovich 2–6
11.5%
78.6%
0.35
112 Feb 14, 2026 Spartans - Dovich @ Manchester Flames - King 6–3
79.1%
11.4%
0.34
113 Feb 14, 2026 Spartans - Dovich @ Manchester Flames - King 8–4
79.1%
11.4%
0.34
114 Dec 14, 2025 MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish @ Top Gun - Fairburn 7–3
79.5%
10.8%
0.33
115 Feb 07, 2026 MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 3–2
80.3%
11.7%
0.32
116 Jan 11, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy @ Top Gun - Fairburn 1–5
9.7%
81.5%
0.29
117 Dec 27, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Gorman @ Spartans - Dovich 1–4
8.5%
82.1%
0.28
118 Sep 27, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Gorman @ Top Gun - Fairburn 2–3
7.6%
83.0% ⚠
0.27
119 Oct 25, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2015 UG @ BOSTON VIPERS 2015 8–2
83.4%
7.3%
0.26
120 Feb 22, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy @ Minuteman Flames - Gorman 3–6
8.4%
83.5%
0.26
121 Feb 22, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy @ Minuteman Flames - Gorman 2–7
8.4%
83.5%
0.26
122 Dec 06, 2025 Manchester Flames - King @ Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo 1–7
7.8%
83.9%
0.25
123 Dec 06, 2025 Manchester Flames - King @ Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo 1–14
7.8%
83.9%
0.25
124 Oct 18, 2025 Spartans - Dovich @ Minuteman Flames - Gorman 2–1
84.1%
7.1%
0.25
125 Jan 04, 2026 Top Gun - Fairburn @ Spartans - Dovich 1–4
7.7%
84.1%
0.25
126 Jan 17, 2026 MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish @ Boch Blazers - Melanson 6–1
84.2%
8.2%
0.25
127 Nov 08, 2025 MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish @ Top Gun - Fairburn 5–3
84.3%
7.7%
0.25
128 Oct 04, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy @ Top Gun - Fairburn 3–11
7.1%
85.1%
0.23
129 Oct 05, 2025 BOSTON VIPERS 2015 @ Bay State Breakers 2015 UG 2–4
5.5%
85.5%
0.23
130 Jan 31, 2026 Spartans - Dovich @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 6–4
85.8%
7.8%
0.22
131 Sep 28, 2025 Top Gun - Fairburn @ MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish 1–5
6.3%
86.1%
0.22
132 Oct 19, 2025 Spartans - Dovich @ BOSTON VIPERS 2015 5–4
86.6%
6.1%
0.21
133 Dec 13, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 1–6
6.6%
87.8%
0.19
134 Nov 23, 2025 Boch Blazers - Melanson @ MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish 0–8
5.7%
87.8%
0.19
135 Jan 24, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo @ Top Gun - Fairburn 7–0
87.9%
5.9%
0.19
136 Dec 20, 2025 Manchester Flames - King @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy 8–2
87.9%
5.9%
0.19
137 Jan 02, 2026 Spartans - Dovich @ Boch Blazers - Melanson 9–1
87.9%
5.7%
0.19
138 Jan 10, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo @ Minuteman Flames - Gorman 3–1
88.0%
4.6%
0.18
139 Jan 10, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo @ Minuteman Flames - Gorman 7–2
88.0%
4.6%
0.18
140 Feb 01, 2026 Manchester Flames - King @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy 4–1
88.5%
5.6%
0.18
141 Oct 26, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy @ Manchester Flames - King 2–8
4.8%
89.5%
0.16
142 Feb 08, 2026 Boch Blazers - Melanson @ Spartans - Dovich 2–5
4.4%
90.5%
0.14
143 Oct 11, 2025 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy 10–6
90.7%
5.4%
0.14
144 Dec 28, 2025 MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish @ BOSTON VIPERS 2015 4–1
90.7%
4.4%
0.14
145 Dec 14, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy @ Bay State Breakers 2015 UG 2–7
3.5%
91.2%
0.13
146 Jan 18, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2015 UG @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy 3–1
91.5%
3.8%
0.13
147 Feb 15, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2015 UG @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy 4–2
91.8%
3.7%
0.12
148 Nov 09, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Gorman @ Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo 1–5
2.9%
92.4%
0.11
149 Jan 10, 2026 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy 5–4
92.7%
3.6%
0.11
150 Feb 01, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 8–4
93.2%
3.4%
0.10
151 Sep 21, 2025 Boch Blazers - Melanson @ Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo 2–8
2.6%
93.7% ⚠
0.09
152 Feb 01, 2026 BOSTON VIPERS 2015 @ Spartans - Dovich 1–7
2.8%
93.7%
0.09
153 Nov 16, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy @ South Shore Kings - Lavery 2–5
3.1%
94.0%
0.09
154 Nov 02, 2025 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish 4–5
2.3%
95.0%
0.07
155 Feb 07, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo @ Boch Blazers - Melanson 6–1
95.2%
2.1%
0.07
156 Oct 19, 2025 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish 2–7
2.3%
95.3%
0.07
157 Nov 22, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo @ Boch Blazers - Melanson 5–1
95.3%
1.9%
0.07
158 Oct 26, 2025 BOSTON VIPERS 2015 @ MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish 4–10
1.6%
95.7%
0.06
159 Jan 31, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy @ MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish 0–11
1.3%
96.6%
0.05
160 Dec 14, 2025 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo 2–7
1.4%
96.6%
0.05
161 Jan 25, 2026 BOSTON VIPERS 2015 @ Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo 1–10
1.2%
97.1%
0.04
162 Nov 15, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo @ BOSTON VIPERS 2015 7–0
97.4%
1.0%
0.04
163 Dec 21, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy @ Spartans - Dovich 0–8
0.6%
98.1%
0.03
164 Dec 13, 2025 BOSTON VIPERS 2015 @ Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo 1–4
0.7%
98.2%
0.03
165 Jan 03, 2026 MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy 3–1
98.3%
0.6%
0.03
166 Feb 21, 2026 Spartans - Dovich @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy 6–0
98.7%
0.5%
0.02
167 Oct 05, 2025 South Shore Kings - Lavery @ Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo 1–11
0.4%
99.1%
0.01
168 Oct 05, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy @ MassConn United Hockey Club - Cornish 2–8
0.1%
99.5%
0.01
169 Feb 14, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy 9–0
99.5%
0.1%
0.01
170 Dec 07, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darcy @ Providence Capitals (North) - Cuneo 1–6
0.1%
99.8%
0.00