Upset Index

Games sorted by how surprising the result was, based on pre-game Dixon-Coles probabilities.

All Upsets only Low confidence
# Date Matchup Result Pre-game odds Surprisal (bits)
1 Sep 27, 2025 Top Gun @ Seacoast Spartans 4–4
0.0%
99.7% ⚠
8.45 UPSET
2 Nov 16, 2025 South Shore Kings @ NorthStars Hockey Club 3–5
88.9%
6.2%
4.01 UPSET
3 Nov 01, 2025 Top Gun @ NorthStars Hockey Club 6–4
6.9%
86.6%
3.86 UPSET
4 Dec 13, 2025 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 4–3
7.0%
85.6%
3.84 UPSET
5 Nov 02, 2025 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–5
7.0%
84.8%
3.60 UPSET
6 Jan 24, 2026 Seacoast Spartans @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 2–3
79.7%
9.3%
3.43 UPSET
7 Jan 04, 2026 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Seacoast Spartans 8–7
9.7%
81.7%
3.37 UPSET
8 Feb 11, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Top Gun 0–3
79.4%
10.2%
3.30 UPSET
9 Jan 03, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Seacoast Spartans 2–2
8.0%
81.6%
3.26 UPSET
10 Oct 18, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Seacoast Spartans 3–1
11.0%
78.6%
3.19 UPSET
11 Dec 06, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 3–3
11.3%
77.5%
3.16 UPSET
12 Dec 13, 2025 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 5–5
27.8%
60.5%
3.10 UPSET
13 Dec 14, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 7–7
67.4%
20.5%
3.05 UPSET
14 Dec 07, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–3
70.9%
16.5%
2.99 UPSET
15 Nov 30, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 4–4
38.5%
48.6%
2.96
16 Jan 04, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 3–3
50.0%
36.8%
2.92
17 Dec 21, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–3
42.4%
44.2%
2.91
18 Nov 16, 2025 Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–3
70.4%
16.3%
2.91 UPSET
19 Dec 27, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Top Gun 2–2
65.2%
21.4%
2.90 UPSET
20 Nov 15, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 5–5
52.9%
33.4%
2.87 UPSET
21 Dec 13, 2025 Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 2–2
67.0%
18.5%
2.78 UPSET
22 Jan 11, 2026 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–2
28.7%
55.7%
2.68 UPSET
23 Nov 02, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Seacoast Spartans 1–1
28.4%
55.8%
2.66 UPSET
24 Oct 26, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–3
23.0%
61.0%
2.65 UPSET
25 Feb 01, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 2–4
72.3%
16.4%
2.60 UPSET
26 Nov 30, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Top Gun 2–2
54.1%
29.2%
2.59 UPSET
27 Sep 27, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 5–2
17.1%
73.3% ⚠
2.55 UPSET
28 Oct 05, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Seacoast Spartans 1–1
9.3%
73.3%
2.52 UPSET
29 Feb 07, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Top Gun 2–2
52.6%
29.8%
2.50 UPSET
30 Oct 26, 2025 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 1–2
47.9%
17.7%
2.50
31 Feb 14, 2026 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 5–4
18.1%
63.2%
2.47
32 Feb 01, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Seacoast Spartans 1–1
32.2%
49.7%
2.46
33 Jan 31, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Top Gun 2–2
62.4%
19.3%
2.45
34 Feb 21, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–2
44.5%
37.1%
2.44
35 Dec 20, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 3–2
20.0%
67.5%
2.32
36 Nov 15, 2025 Top Gun @ NorthStars Hockey Club 6–3
21.6%
67.2%
2.21
37 Feb 08, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–4
65.2%
22.1%
2.18
38 Oct 18, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 1–1
52.7%
24.2%
2.11
39 Dec 20, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ NorthStars Hockey Club 4–6
58.0%
24.8%
2.01
40 Jan 25, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–2
25.4%
60.5%
1.98
41 Nov 29, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 0–1
50.9%
27.3%
1.87
42 Dec 21, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ South Shore Kings 3–1
27.5%
52.4%
1.86
43 Jan 24, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 1–4
54.0%
27.7%
1.85
44 Dec 14, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ NorthStars Hockey Club 5–8
59.9%
27.9%
1.84
45 Dec 07, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 3–0
27.9%
52.8%
1.84
46 Sep 27, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 4–0
29.0%
44.6% ⚠
1.79
47 Dec 28, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ NorthStars Hockey Club 4–6
57.5%
30.1%
1.73
48 Oct 11, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–8
49.2%
32.7%
1.61
49 Feb 08, 2026 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 8–3
32.8%
54.5%
1.61
50 Jan 04, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ South Shore Kings 2–8
50.1%
33.1%
1.60
51 Jan 03, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ NorthStars Hockey Club 1–5
54.0%
33.8%
1.57
52 Oct 11, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–2
33.9%
42.6%
1.56
53 Nov 23, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 5–7
49.2%
36.7%
1.45
54 Feb 21, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–6
44.5%
37.1%
1.43
55 Nov 23, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ NorthStars Hockey Club 1–2
47.0%
38.7%
1.37
56 Oct 25, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 2–1
39.6%
27.3%
1.34
57 Nov 16, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–6
30.7%
40.2%
1.32
58 Nov 02, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 0–2
43.1%
40.7%
1.30
59 Dec 06, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ NorthStars Hockey Club 3–6
44.5%
40.7%
1.30
60 Feb 01, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 0–3
39.7%
41.7%
1.26
61 Oct 19, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ NorthStars Hockey Club 4–3
42.1%
34.3%
1.25
62 Nov 08, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Eagles 7–3
42.4%
43.9%
1.24
63 Jan 10, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 0–6
37.7%
42.4%
1.24
64 Dec 14, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Seacoast Spartans 3–5
34.2%
42.7%
1.23
65 Sep 28, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 8–4
43.1%
39.1%
1.22
66 Dec 21, 2025 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 1–4
39.0%
43.3%
1.21
67 Oct 12, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ NorthStars Hockey Club 7–2
43.5%
44.2%
1.20
68 Nov 15, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 5–1
44.8%
27.7%
1.16
69 Oct 19, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–4
45.4%
40.6%
1.14
70 Feb 14, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Seacoast Spartans 1–3
36.6%
45.6%
1.13
71 Dec 20, 2025 Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings 5–2
46.1%
35.6%
1.12
72 Jan 10, 2026 Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 5–1
46.3%
35.0%
1.11
73 Dec 06, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Seacoast Spartans 1–2
27.3%
46.8%
1.10
74 Jan 11, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 4–6
37.6%
47.7%
1.07
75 Nov 22, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 7–4
48.3%
35.3%
1.05
76 Sep 27, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ NorthStars Hockey Club 4–5
39.1%
49.3% ⚠
1.02
77 Jan 25, 2026 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 2–4
37.7%
49.5%
1.01
78 Sep 28, 2025 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 4–3
49.9%
37.3%
1.00
79 Jan 25, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 3–1
50.0%
29.3%
1.00
80 Nov 29, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 4–2
50.4%
33.4%
0.99
81 Feb 07, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 2–4
27.2%
50.4%
0.99
82 Feb 08, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 2–1
50.6%
26.3%
0.98
83 Feb 08, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 1–7
26.3%
50.6%
0.98
84 Jan 31, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–8
34.9%
51.6%
0.95
85 Nov 01, 2025 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–3
52.0%
28.2%
0.94
86 Jan 24, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ NorthStars Hockey Club 7–3
52.8%
35.4%
0.92
87 Jan 04, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 0–2
26.8%
52.8%
0.92
88 Feb 07, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 1–4
32.5%
53.1%
0.91
89 Jan 03, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 2–7
24.3%
53.5%
0.90
90 Jan 24, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 2–0
54.0%
27.7%
0.89
91 Feb 21, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 2–1
55.4%
28.5%
0.85
92 Dec 27, 2025 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 5–2
56.1%
20.9%
0.83
93 Dec 28, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 1–6
27.7%
56.7%
0.82
94 Dec 20, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–6
27.7%
56.9%
0.81
95 Oct 04, 2025 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 0–2
22.9%
57.5%
0.80
96 Feb 01, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Top Gun 4–3
57.8%
27.5%
0.79
97 Feb 22, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 5–0
57.9%
26.5%
0.79
98 Nov 29, 2025 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–9
29.2%
58.9%
0.76
99 Nov 22, 2025 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 0–5
21.9%
59.7%
0.74
100 Nov 09, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 2–5
27.1%
60.2%
0.73
101 Nov 30, 2025 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 4–5
28.0%
60.2%
0.73
102 Nov 22, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ South Shore Kings 3–8
26.6%
61.0%
0.71
103 Dec 21, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 7–3
61.6%
23.3%
0.70
104 Jan 10, 2026 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Top Gun 7–4
61.7%
25.8%
0.70
105 Oct 26, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ South Shore Kings 1–6
25.4%
62.7%
0.67
106 Jan 03, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ South Shore Kings 1–4
23.8%
63.1%
0.67
107 Dec 20, 2025 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Top Gun 3–2
63.3%
23.5%
0.66
108 Oct 25, 2025 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–5
25.3%
63.7%
0.65
109 Jan 04, 2026 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–5
22.2%
63.8%
0.65
110 Nov 15, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Seacoast Spartans 1–6
17.7%
66.1%
0.60
111 Dec 06, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 4–1
66.2%
22.0%
0.59
112 Nov 01, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 7–6
66.5%
20.1%
0.59
113 Jan 03, 2026 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–4
19.2%
69.0%
0.54
114 Feb 22, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 7–3
69.3%
18.9%
0.53
115 Sep 20, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 4–5
16.2%
69.5% ⚠
0.53
116 Dec 17, 2025 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 1–7
18.0%
70.4%
0.51
117 Feb 07, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 2–6
18.6%
70.4%
0.51
118 Jan 10, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ South Shore Kings 0–9
17.3%
71.3%
0.49
119 Dec 07, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Top Gun 2–1
71.6%
16.8%
0.48
120 Jan 11, 2026 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–2
72.5%
15.9%
0.46
121 Nov 23, 2025 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 2–5
16.7%
72.5%
0.46
122 Oct 12, 2025 Seacoast Spartans @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 5–4
72.5%
8.8%
0.46
123 Dec 13, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 2–3
13.0%
72.6%
0.46
124 Feb 21, 2026 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 2–6
13.8%
73.7%
0.44
125 Dec 27, 2025 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 2–1
73.9%
13.2%
0.44
126 Dec 14, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ South Shore Kings 1–6
13.7%
75.0%
0.41
127 Dec 28, 2025 Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 3–1
76.4%
12.6%
0.39
128 Dec 28, 2025 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 0–5
11.0%
77.3%
0.37
129 Feb 08, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Seacoast Spartans 1–8
11.1%
78.3%
0.35
130 Jan 31, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ South Shore Kings 3–4
11.0%
78.7%
0.35
131 Jan 11, 2026 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Top Gun 6–3
79.0%
10.7%
0.34
132 Feb 15, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 4–1
79.0%
10.7%
0.34
133 Feb 07, 2026 Seacoast Spartans @ NorthStars Hockey Club 8–4
79.9%
11.1%
0.32
134 Feb 21, 2026 NorthStars Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 1–6
11.7%
80.4%
0.32
135 Dec 21, 2025 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Seacoast Spartans 0–6
9.9%
81.5%
0.29
136 Feb 21, 2026 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Seacoast Spartans 3–6
9.1%
81.5%
0.29
137 Feb 21, 2026 Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 5–3
81.5%
9.1%
0.29
138 Feb 22, 2026 Seacoast Spartans @ NorthStars Hockey Club 4–0
81.6%
10.1%
0.29
139 Feb 22, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 4–2
81.6%
9.9%
0.29
140 Oct 05, 2025 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 1–6
7.9%
83.9%
0.25
141 Jan 31, 2026 Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun 4–1
84.6%
6.8%
0.24
142 Feb 15, 2026 Top Gun @ Seacoast Spartans 1–3
6.5%
84.9%
0.24
143 Nov 22, 2025 Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun 2–1
85.2%
5.5%
0.23
144 Dec 07, 2025 NorthStars Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 3–4
8.3%
85.3%
0.23
145 Dec 03, 2025 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 2–6
6.8%
85.4%
0.23
146 Jan 11, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 6–0
86.2%
6.7%
0.22
147 Feb 08, 2026 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 1–6
6.5%
86.3%
0.21
148 Sep 28, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Seacoast Spartans 2–5
5.5%
88.6%
0.18
149 Oct 25, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 5–2
95.3%
1.8%
0.07
150 Sep 21, 2025 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 2–4
0.4%
98.4% ⚠
0.02