The Sheet
What is Surprisal?
Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities.
0 bits = perfectly predicted.
3+ bits = major upset.
A result is flagged as an UPSET
when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | GF | GA | PTS | Champ % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seacoast Spartans | 34 | 24 | 3 | 7 | 130 | 60 | 55 | 100% |
| 2 | South Shore Kings | 35 | 24 | 8 | 3 | 154 | 85 | 51 | 0% |
| 3 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 111 | 121 | 37 | 0% |
| 4 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 36 | 15 | 15 | 6 | 86 | 81 | 36 | 0% |
| 5 | Boston Jr Eagles | 35 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 142 | 135 | 36 | 0% |
| 6 | Minuteman Flames - Hogan | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 85 | 60 | 32 | 0% |
| 7 | NorthStars Hockey Club | 34 | 13 | 17 | 4 | 126 | 156 | 30 | 0% |
| 8 | Providence Capitals (North) - Batista | 34 | 12 | 17 | 5 | 107 | 143 | 29 | 0% |
| 9 | Top Gun | 36 | 5 | 24 | 7 | 87 | 150 | 17 | — |
| 10 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum | 34 | 4 | 23 | 7 | 83 | 120 | 15 | — |
Projected Finish
How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.
| # | Team | Proj. Finish | Win Division | Proj. Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seacoast Spartans | 1 | 100% | 55 (55–55) |
| 2 | South Shore Kings | 2 | <1% | 51 (51–51) |
| 3 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 3 (3–4) | <1% | 37 (37–37) |
| 4 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 5 (3–5) | <1% | 35 (35–37) |
| 5 | Boston Jr Eagles | 4 (4–5) | <1% | 36 (36–36) |
| 6 | Minuteman Flames - Hogan | 6 | <1% | 33 (31–34) |
| 7 | NorthStars Hockey Club | 7 | <1% | 29 (29–31) |
| 8 | Providence Capitals (North) - Batista | 8 | <1% | 29 (29–29) |
| 9 | Top Gun | 9 | <1% | 17 (17–17) |
| 10 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum | 10 | <1% | 15 (15–15) |
Game Log
| Date | Matchup | Score | Pre-game Probability | Surprisal | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22 | South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista | 4–2 |
78%
|
0.36 | |
| Feb 22 | Seacoast Spartans @ NorthStars Hockey Club | 4–0 |
79%
|
0.34 | |
| Feb 22 | Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 5–0 |
52%
|
0.93 | |
| Feb 22 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun | 7–3 |
65%
|
0.62 | |
| Feb 21 | Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista | 5–3 |
79%
|
0.34 | |
| Feb 21 | NorthStars Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings | 1–6 |
11%
|
0.31 | |
| Feb 21 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Boston Jr Eagles | 3–6 |
42%
|
1.33 | |
| Feb 21 | Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Seacoast Spartans | 3–6 |
8%
|
0.28 | |
| Feb 21 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum | 2–1 |
52%
|
0.95 | |
| Feb 21 | Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan | 2–6 |
14%
|
0.47 | |
| Feb 21 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Boston Jr Eagles | 2–2 |
42%
|
2.44 | |
| Feb 15 | South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum | 4–1 |
75%
|
0.41 | |
| Feb 15 | Top Gun @ Seacoast Spartans | 1–3 |
6%
|
0.23 | |
| Feb 14 | South Shore Kings @ Seacoast Spartans | 1–3 |
32%
|
1.00 | |
| Feb 14 | Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 5–4 |
18%
|
2.50 | |
| Feb 11 | Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Top Gun | 0–3 |
73%
|
2.86 | UPSET |
| Feb 08 | Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Boston Jr Eagles | 0–4 |
59%
|
1.90 | |
| Feb 08 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum | 2–1 |
53%
|
0.92 | |
| Feb 08 | Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Seacoast Spartans | 1–8 |
10%
|
0.33 | |
| Feb 08 | Top Gun @ South Shore Kings | 1–6 |
7%
|
0.22 | |
| Feb 08 | NorthStars Hockey Club @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 8–3 |
29%
|
1.78 | |
| Feb 08 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 1–7 |
26%
|
0.93 | |
| Feb 07 | Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings | 2–6 |
18%
|
0.49 | |
| Feb 07 | Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 1–4 |
30%
|
0.84 | |
| Feb 07 | Seacoast Spartans @ NorthStars Hockey Club | 8–4 |
77%
|
0.38 | |
| Feb 07 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Top Gun | 2–2 |
50%
|
2.52 | UPSET |
| Feb 07 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan | 2–4 |
27%
|
1.00 | |
| Feb 01 | Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Top Gun | 4–3 |
54%
|
0.90 | |
| Feb 01 | Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Seacoast Spartans | 1–1 |
27%
|
2.38 | |
| Feb 01 | South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 2–4 |
67%
|
2.31 | |
| Feb 01 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 0–3 |
37%
|
1.19 | |
| Feb 01 | Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun | 4–1 |
81%
|
0.30 | |
| Jan 31 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ South Shore Kings | 3–4 |
11%
|
0.35 | |
| Jan 31 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Top Gun | 2–2 |
58%
|
2.35 | |
| Jan 31 | Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Boston Jr Eagles | 2–8 |
32%
|
0.88 | |
| Jan 25 | Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 3–1 |
45%
|
1.16 | |
| Jan 25 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Boston Jr Eagles | 6–2 |
24%
|
2.04 | |
| Jan 25 | NorthStars Hockey Club @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 2–4 |
33%
|
0.89 | |
| Jan 24 | Seacoast Spartans @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum | 2–3 |
77%
|
3.23 | UPSET |
| Jan 24 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista | 1–4 |
51%
|
1.78 | |
| Jan 24 | Boston Jr Eagles @ NorthStars Hockey Club | 7–3 |
50%
|
1.01 | |
| Jan 24 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista | 2–0 |
50%
|
0.99 | |
| Jan 11 | Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 4–6 |
34%
|
0.97 | |
| Jan 11 | South Shore Kings @ Top Gun | 6–0 |
82%
|
0.28 | |
| Jan 11 | NorthStars Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 2–2 |
27%
|
2.61 | UPSET |
| Jan 11 | Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Top Gun | 6–3 |
71%
|
0.49 | |
| Jan 11 | Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Eagles | 4–2 |
69%
|
0.53 | |
| Jan 10 | Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan | 5–1 |
46%
|
1.11 | |
| Jan 10 | NorthStars Hockey Club @ Top Gun | 7–4 |
54%
|
0.90 | |
| Jan 10 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 0–6 |
36%
|
1.19 | |
| Jan 10 | Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ South Shore Kings | 0–9 |
17%
|
0.47 | |
| Jan 04 | Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 3–5 |
22%
|
0.64 | |
| Jan 04 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 0–2 |
25%
|
0.89 | |
| Jan 04 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista | 3–3 |
46%
|
2.88 | |
| Jan 04 | Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ South Shore Kings | 2–8 |
43%
|
1.36 | |
| Jan 03 | Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ NorthStars Hockey Club | 1–5 |
49%
|
1.40 | |
| Jan 03 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ South Shore Kings | 1–4 |
23%
|
0.66 | |
| Jan 03 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan | 2–7 |
25%
|
0.98 | |
| Jan 03 | Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles | 3–4 |
20%
|
0.55 | |
| Jan 03 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Seacoast Spartans | 2–2 |
9%
|
3.16 | UPSET |
| Dec 28 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ NorthStars Hockey Club | 4–6 |
56%
|
1.67 | |
| Dec 28 | Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan | 0–5 |
14%
|
0.47 | |
| Dec 28 | Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista | 3–1 |
70%
|
0.51 | |
| Dec 28 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 1–6 |
26%
|
0.78 | |
| Dec 27 | Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 5–2 |
52%
|
0.95 | |
| Dec 27 | Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum | 2–1 |
65%
|
0.63 | |
| Dec 27 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Top Gun | 2–2 |
59%
|
2.77 | UPSET |
| Dec 21 | Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista | 7–3 |
52%
|
0.94 | |
| Dec 21 | Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum | 1–4 |
38%
|
1.16 | |
| Dec 21 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ South Shore Kings | 3–1 |
26%
|
1.94 | |
| Dec 21 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Eagles | 3–3 |
40%
|
2.88 | |
| Dec 21 | NorthStars Hockey Club @ Seacoast Spartans | 0–6 |
12%
|
0.35 | |
| Dec 20 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 3–6 |
27%
|
0.79 | |
| Dec 20 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ NorthStars Hockey Club | 4–6 |
53%
|
1.82 | |
| Dec 20 | Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings | 5–2 |
41%
|
1.30 | |
| Dec 20 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan | 3–2 |
24%
|
2.07 | |
| Dec 20 | Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Top Gun | 3–2 |
57%
|
0.80 | |
| Dec 17 | NorthStars Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan | 1–7 |
22%
|
0.65 | |
| Dec 14 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun | 7–7 |
60%
|
2.87 | UPSET |
| Dec 14 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ NorthStars Hockey Club | 5–8 |
54%
|
1.61 | |
| Dec 14 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ South Shore Kings | 1–6 |
14%
|
0.42 | |
| Dec 14 | Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Seacoast Spartans | 3–5 |
30%
|
1.10 | |
| Dec 13 | NorthStars Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista | 5–5 |
27%
|
3.04 | UPSET |
| Dec 13 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan | 2–3 |
18%
|
0.64 | |
| Dec 13 | Top Gun @ South Shore Kings | 4–3 |
8%
|
3.58 | UPSET |
| Dec 13 | Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 2–2 |
60%
|
2.61 | UPSET |
| Dec 07 | NorthStars Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings | 3–4 |
10%
|
0.27 | |
| Dec 07 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Top Gun | 2–1 |
63%
|
0.68 | |
| Dec 07 | Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 3–0 |
28%
|
1.83 | |
| Dec 07 | Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Boston Jr Eagles | 3–3 |
54%
|
2.56 | UPSET |
| Dec 06 | South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 4–1 |
61%
|
0.72 | |
| Dec 06 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ NorthStars Hockey Club | 3–6 |
42%
|
1.22 | |
| Dec 06 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Seacoast Spartans | 1–2 |
27%
|
1.07 | |
| Dec 06 | Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan | 3–3 |
22%
|
2.58 | UPSET |
| Dec 03 | NorthStars Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan | 2–6 |
18%
|
0.59 | |
| Nov 30 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 4–4 |
37%
|
2.92 | |
| Nov 30 | NorthStars Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista | 4–5 |
28%
|
0.74 | |
| Nov 30 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Top Gun | 2–2 |
48%
|
2.54 | UPSET |
| Nov 29 | Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum | 4–2 |
47%
|
1.08 | |
| Nov 29 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 0–1 |
48%
|
1.60 | |
| Nov 29 | NorthStars Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles | 5–9 |
30%
|
0.79 | |
| Nov 23 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ NorthStars Hockey Club | 1–2 |
42%
|
1.22 | |
| Nov 23 | Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 2–5 |
21%
|
0.58 | |
| Nov 23 | Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ South Shore Kings | 2–2 |
30%
|
2.37 | |
| Nov 23 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista | 5–7 |
45%
|
1.28 | |
| Nov 22 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum | 7–4 |
45%
|
1.16 | |
| Nov 22 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ South Shore Kings | 3–8 |
24%
|
0.64 | |
| Nov 22 | Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun | 2–1 |
78%
|
0.36 | |
| Nov 22 | NorthStars Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 0–5 |
24%
|
0.78 | |
| Nov 16 | South Shore Kings @ NorthStars Hockey Club | 3–5 |
79%
|
2.98 | UPSET |
| Nov 16 | Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 3–3 |
63%
|
2.77 | UPSET |
| Nov 16 | Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 2–6 |
33%
|
1.14 | |
| Nov 15 | South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 5–1 |
46%
|
1.11 | |
| Nov 15 | Top Gun @ NorthStars Hockey Club | 6–3 |
24%
|
2.07 | |
| Nov 15 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Seacoast Spartans | 1–6 |
21%
|
0.65 | |
| Nov 15 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista | 5–5 |
44%
|
2.78 | |
| Nov 09 | Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings | 2–5 |
23%
|
0.61 | |
| Nov 09 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan | 1–6 |
48%
|
1.68 | |
| Nov 08 | South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan | 3–1 | 50/50 | — | |
| Nov 08 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Eagles | 7–3 |
38%
|
1.40 | |
| Nov 02 | Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles | 5–5 |
11%
|
3.45 | UPSET |
| Nov 02 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista | 0–2 |
38%
|
1.11 | |
| Nov 02 | South Shore Kings @ Seacoast Spartans | 1–1 |
33%
|
2.67 | UPSET |
| Nov 01 | Top Gun @ NorthStars Hockey Club | 6–4 |
14%
|
2.89 | UPSET |
| Nov 01 | South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum | 7–6 |
62%
|
0.69 | |
| Nov 01 | Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Eagles | 6–3 |
46%
|
1.12 | |
| Oct 26 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Boston Jr Eagles | 3–3 |
22%
|
2.83 | UPSET |
| Oct 26 | Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ South Shore Kings | 1–6 |
26%
|
0.69 | |
| Oct 26 | Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 1–2 |
47%
|
1.81 | |
| Oct 25 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum | 2–1 |
43%
|
1.23 | |
| Oct 25 | South Shore Kings @ Top Gun | 5–2 |
86%
|
0.22 | |
| Oct 25 | NorthStars Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles | 1–5 |
28%
|
0.76 | |
| Oct 19 | South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles | 5–4 |
42%
|
1.26 | |
| Oct 19 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ NorthStars Hockey Club | 4–3 |
40%
|
1.33 | |
| Oct 18 | South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 1–1 |
48%
|
2.39 | |
| Oct 18 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Seacoast Spartans | 3–1 |
17%
|
2.58 | UPSET |
| Oct 12 | Seacoast Spartans @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum | 5–4 |
65%
|
0.63 | |
| Oct 12 | Boston Jr Eagles @ NorthStars Hockey Club | 7–2 |
35%
|
1.51 | |
| Oct 11 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 3–2 |
37%
|
1.43 | |
| Oct 11 | Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Boston Jr Eagles | 5–8 |
48%
|
1.48 | |
| Oct 05 | Top Gun @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista | 1–6 |
14%
|
0.42 | |
| Oct 05 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Seacoast Spartans | 1–1 |
16%
|
2.36 | |
| Oct 04 | Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 0–2 |
22%
|
0.76 | |
| Sep 28 | South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles | 8–4 |
40%
|
1.33 | |
| Sep 28 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Seacoast Spartans | 2–5 |
18%
|
0.54 | |
| Sep 28 | NorthStars Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum | 4–3 |
48%
|
1.07 | |
| Sep 27 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 4–0 |
28%
|
1.83 | |
| Sep 27 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum | 5–2 |
28%
|
1.83 | |
| Sep 27 | Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ NorthStars Hockey Club | 4–5 |
35%
|
0.96 | |
| Sep 27 | Top Gun @ Seacoast Spartans | 4–4 |
3%
⚠Fewer than 20 games in training sample |
4.18 | UPSET |
| Sep 21 | South Shore Kings @ NorthStars Hockey Club | 6–8 |
51%
⚠Fewer than 20 games in training sample |
1.62 | |
| Sep 21 | Top Gun @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista | 2–4 |
9%
⚠Fewer than 20 games in training sample |
0.28 | |
| Sep 21 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Seacoast Spartans | 0–3 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 20 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ South Shore Kings | 2–4 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 20 | Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista | 4–5 |
46%
⚠Fewer than 20 games in training sample |
1.42 | |
| Sep 20 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) | 3–3 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 14 | South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista | 4–0 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 14 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 2–1 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 14 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Seacoast Spartans | 0–4 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 14 | Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum | 0–6 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 13 | Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings | 5–1 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 13 | NorthStars Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum | 6–6 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 13 | Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Top Gun | 5–0 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 13 | Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista | 5–9 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 07 | Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum | 2–2 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 06 | NorthStars Hockey Club @ Top Gun | 5–3 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 06 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum | 2–2 | 50/50 | — | |
| Aug 01 | Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) | 0–0 | 50/50 | — | |
| Aug 01 | Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ NorthStars Hockey Club | 0–0 | 50/50 | — |