The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Seacoast Spartans 10 7 2 1 56 24 15 —
2 CT Blue Devil Rangers 12 5 4 3 46 42 13 —
3 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher 10 4 2 4 25 23 12 —
4 South Shore Kings 7 5 1 1 34 21 11 —
5 IHC West 2014 - Warilla 9 5 3 1 32 24 11 —
6 NorthStars - Giombetti 11 4 4 3 51 57 11 —
7 Top Gun - Hayes 11 3 5 3 37 46 9 —
8 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 12 2 7 3 39 53 7 —
9 Minuteman Flames Hogan 9 3 6 0 31 41 6 —
10 Bulldogs Hockey Club 9 2 6 1 41 61 5 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Seacoast Spartans 1 (1–3) 54% 54 (46–61)
2 South Shore Kings 2 (1–3) 35% 51 (43–58)
3 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher 3 (2–5) 3% 44 (36–52)
4 IHC West 2014 - Warilla 4 (2–7) 6% 41 (31–51)
5 CT Blue Devil Rangers 5 (4–8) <1% 34 (27–42)
6 Top Gun - Hayes 7 (4–9) <1% 31 (23–40)
7 NorthStars - Giombetti 7 (4–9) <1% 29 (22–38)
8 Minuteman Flames Hogan 7 (4–10) 1% 28 (18–38)
9 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 8 (5–10) <1% 26 (20–34)
10 Bulldogs Hockey Club 9 (6–10) <1% 22 (15–31)
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Sep 05 Minuteman Flames Hogan @ IHC West 2014 - Warilla 1–4 50/50 —
Sep 06 Minuteman Flames Hogan @ IHC West 2014 - Warilla 7–3 50/50 —
Sep 12 Minuteman Flames Hogan @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 6–4 50/50 —
Sep 13 NorthStars - Giombetti @ CT Blue Devil Rangers 5–5 50/50 —
Sep 13 NorthStars - Giombetti @ CT Blue Devil Rangers 8–7 50/50 —
Sep 13 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ IHC West 2014 - Warilla 0–5 50/50 —
Sep 19 IHC West 2014 - Warilla @ Top Gun - Hayes 4–4 50/50 —
Sep 19 Minuteman Flames Hogan @ CT Blue Devil Rangers 2–5 50/50 —
Sep 19 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ South Shore Kings 4–6 50/50 —
Sep 19 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher @ NorthStars - Giombetti 4–2 50/50 —
Sep 19 Minuteman Flames Hogan @ CT Blue Devil Rangers 2–4
38% 48%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.05
Sep 19 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Seacoast Spartans 1–5 50/50 —
Sep 20 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Seacoast Spartans 3–7 50/50 —
Sep 20 Top Gun - Hayes @ South Shore Kings 5–3 50/50 —
Sep 20 Top Gun - Hayes @ South Shore Kings 1–7 50/50 —
Sep 20 IHC West 2014 - Warilla @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher 4–0 50/50 —
Sep 20 Minuteman Flames Hogan @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 7–4 50/50 —
Sep 26 Top Gun - Hayes @ CT Blue Devil Rangers 0–3
28% 59%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.77
Sep 26 Top Gun - Hayes @ CT Blue Devil Rangers 4–3
21% 66%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
2.23
Sep 26 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 6–6
26% 61%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
2.98 UPSET
Sep 26 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 27 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher 6–3
49% 35%
1.04
Sep 27 Top Gun - Hayes @ NorthStars - Giombetti 4–8
36% 51%
0.98
Sep 27 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ IHC West 2014 - Warilla 1–3
16% 74%
0.44
Oct 03 NorthStars - Giombetti @ IHC West 2014 - Warilla 4–2
34% 53%
1.57
Oct 03 CT Blue Devil Rangers @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher 0–0
54% 30%
2.65 UPSET
Oct 03 CT Blue Devil Rangers @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher 2–3
50% 31%
1.71
Oct 03 Minuteman Flames Hogan @ Seacoast Spartans 2–3
28% 58%
0.79
Oct 03 Top Gun - Hayes @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 4–5
49% 37%
1.43
Oct 04 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ CT Blue Devil Rangers 2–2
21% 67%
3.04 UPSET
Oct 04 NorthStars - Giombetti @ Seacoast Spartans 1–10
34% 52%
0.94
Oct 04 Top Gun - Hayes @ IHC West 2014 - Warilla 2–5
22% 63%
0.67
Oct 04 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ CT Blue Devil Rangers 2–3
28% 57%
0.80
Oct 10 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Seacoast Spartans 1–7
9% 82%
0.28
Oct 10 Top Gun - Hayes @ NorthStars - Giombetti 3–3
26% 63%
3.19 UPSET
Oct 11 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher @ Seacoast Spartans 5–2
13% 74%
2.96 UPSET
Oct 17 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ NorthStars - Giombetti 10–9
21% 69%
2.28
Oct 17 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun - Hayes 3–3
68% 21%
3.09 UPSET
Oct 17 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher 1–1
23% 62%
2.76 UPSET
Oct 18 NorthStars - Giombetti @ Seacoast Spartans 2–8
11% 82%
0.29
Oct 18 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher @ IHC West 2014 - Warilla 5–2
31% 48%
1.69
Oct 18 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 8–3
42% 45%
1.27
Oct 18 Top Gun - Hayes @ Minuteman Flames Hogan 7–2
24% 62%
2.04
Oct 24 IHC West 2014 - Warilla @ Minuteman Flames Hogan Upcoming
50% 35%
—
Oct 24 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher @ NorthStars - Giombetti 2–2
57% 30%
2.88 UPSET
Oct 24 CT Blue Devil Rangers @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 3–6
65% 23%
2.14
Oct 24 CT Blue Devil Rangers @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 9–8
54% 32%
0.89
Oct 24 Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings 3–4
58% 28%
1.82
Oct 25 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 5–2
68% 21%
0.56
Oct 25 Seacoast Spartans @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 9–3
85% 8%
—
Oct 25 Minuteman Flames Hogan @ NorthStars - Giombetti 2–7
43% 44%
—
Nov 01 South Shore Kings @ NorthStars - Giombetti Upcoming
73% 18%
—
Nov 01 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher @ Seacoast Spartans Upcoming
22% 61%
—
Nov 01 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames Hogan Upcoming
29% 60%
—
Nov 07 South Shore Kings @ CT Blue Devil Rangers Upcoming
62% 24%
—
Nov 07 South Shore Kings @ CT Blue Devil Rangers Upcoming
62% 24%
—
Nov 08 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames Hogan Upcoming
67% 22%
—
Nov 14 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Top Gun - Hayes Upcoming
35% 49%
—
Nov 14 IHC West 2014 - Warilla @ NorthStars - Giombetti Upcoming
54% 32%
—
Nov 14 Minuteman Flames Hogan @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher Upcoming
29% 54%
—
Nov 14 Seacoast Spartans @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
85% 8%
—
Nov 15 IHC West 2014 - Warilla @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher Upcoming
36% 42%
—
Nov 15 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Minuteman Flames Hogan Upcoming
35% 50%
—
Nov 15 Seacoast Spartans @ CT Blue Devil Rangers Upcoming
69% 18%
—
Nov 15 Seacoast Spartans @ CT Blue Devil Rangers Upcoming
69% 18%
—
Nov 21 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher @ CT Blue Devil Rangers Upcoming
46% 35%
—
Nov 21 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher @ CT Blue Devil Rangers Upcoming
46% 35%
—
Nov 21 Seacoast Spartans @ NorthStars - Giombetti Upcoming
79% 13%
—
Nov 21 Minuteman Flames Hogan @ South Shore Kings Upcoming
17% 72%
—
Nov 21 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
47% 40%
—
Nov 22 South Shore Kings @ Seacoast Spartans Upcoming
31% 55%
—
Nov 22 NorthStars - Giombetti @ Top Gun - Hayes Upcoming
38% 49%
—
Nov 22 IHC West 2014 - Warilla @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
63% 24%
—
Nov 22 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher Upcoming
26% 57%
—
Nov 28 Minuteman Flames Hogan @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher Upcoming
29% 54%
—
Nov 28 IHC West 2014 - Warilla @ South Shore Kings Upcoming
27% 58%
—
Nov 28 Top Gun - Hayes @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
52% 35%
—
Nov 29 Top Gun - Hayes @ IHC West 2014 - Warilla Upcoming
29% 54%
—
Nov 29 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher Upcoming
50% 33%
—
Nov 29 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ NorthStars - Giombetti Upcoming
31% 59%
—
Nov 29 Minuteman Flames Hogan @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum Upcoming
44% 41%
—
Nov 29 IHC West 2014 - Warilla @ Top Gun - Hayes Upcoming
49% 34%
—
Dec 05 Top Gun - Hayes @ Minuteman Flames Hogan Upcoming
40% 46%
—
Dec 05 NorthStars - Giombetti @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum Upcoming
43% 44%
—
Dec 05 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings Upcoming
9% 85%
—
Dec 05 Seacoast Spartans @ IHC West 2014 - Warilla Upcoming
60% 24%
—
Dec 06 NorthStars - Giombetti @ Minuteman Flames Hogan Upcoming
38% 50%
—
Dec 06 IHC West 2014 - Warilla @ CT Blue Devil Rangers Upcoming
46% 36%
—
Dec 06 Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings Upcoming
49% 36%
—
Dec 06 IHC West 2014 - Warilla @ CT Blue Devil Rangers Upcoming
46% 36%
—
Dec 06 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher @ Top Gun - Hayes Upcoming
48% 33%
—
Dec 12 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher @ Minuteman Flames Hogan Upcoming
49% 33%
—
Dec 12 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ IHC West 2014 - Warilla Upcoming
20% 69%
—
Dec 12 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum Upcoming
70% 19%
—
Dec 13 NorthStars - Giombetti @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher Upcoming
26% 59%
—
Dec 13 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun - Hayes Upcoming
66% 22%
—
Dec 13 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ CT Blue Devil Rangers Upcoming
27% 61%
—
Dec 13 Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames Hogan Upcoming
73% 16%
—
Dec 13 IHC West 2014 - Warilla @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum Upcoming
54% 30%
—
Dec 13 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ CT Blue Devil Rangers Upcoming
27% 61%
—
Dec 19 Top Gun - Hayes @ Seacoast Spartans Upcoming
13% 76%
—
Dec 19 CT Blue Devil Rangers @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum Upcoming
46% 38%
—
Dec 19 CT Blue Devil Rangers @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum Upcoming
46% 38%
—
Dec 19 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher @ IHC West 2014 - Warilla Upcoming
38% 41%
—
Dec 19 South Shore Kings @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
81% 12%
—
Dec 20 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Top Gun - Hayes Upcoming
35% 49%
—
Dec 20 CT Blue Devil Rangers @ South Shore Kings Upcoming
20% 68%
—
Dec 20 IHC West 2014 - Warilla @ Minuteman Flames Hogan Upcoming
50% 34%
—
Dec 20 CT Blue Devil Rangers @ South Shore Kings Upcoming
20% 68%
—
Dec 20 Seacoast Spartans @ NorthStars - Giombetti Upcoming
79% 13%
—
Dec 20 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher Upcoming
20% 68%
—
Dec 26 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames Hogan Upcoming
67% 22%
—
Dec 26 NorthStars - Giombetti @ Top Gun - Hayes Upcoming
38% 49%
—
Dec 26 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher Upcoming
20% 68%
—
Dec 27 Minuteman Flames Hogan @ Seacoast Spartans Upcoming
13% 77%
—
Dec 27 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher @ South Shore Kings Upcoming
28% 55%
—
Dec 27 NorthStars - Giombetti @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
52% 38%
—
Jan 02 CT Blue Devil Rangers @ Minuteman Flames Hogan Upcoming
42% 43%
—
Jan 02 Top Gun - Hayes @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher Upcoming
28% 53%
—
Jan 02 CT Blue Devil Rangers @ Minuteman Flames Hogan Upcoming
42% 43%
—
Jan 02 NorthStars - Giombetti @ South Shore Kings Upcoming
14% 78%
—
Jan 02 Top Gun - Hayes @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher Upcoming
28% 53%
—
Jan 02 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum Upcoming
34% 54%
—
Jan 02 IHC West 2014 - Warilla @ Seacoast Spartans Upcoming
21% 64%
—
Jan 03 CT Blue Devil Rangers @ NorthStars - Giombetti Upcoming
46% 41%
—
Jan 03 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Top Gun - Hayes Upcoming
29% 59%
—
Jan 03 IHC West 2014 - Warilla @ South Shore Kings Upcoming
27% 58%
—
Jan 03 CT Blue Devil Rangers @ NorthStars - Giombetti Upcoming
46% 41%
—
Jan 09 NorthStars - Giombetti @ Minuteman Flames Hogan Upcoming
38% 50%
—
Jan 09 South Shore Kings @ Seacoast Spartans Upcoming
31% 55%
—
Jan 09 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
62% 24%
—
Jan 10 Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun - Hayes Upcoming
71% 16%
—
Jan 10 IHC West 2014 - Warilla @ NorthStars - Giombetti Upcoming
54% 32%
—
Jan 10 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher @ South Shore Kings Upcoming
28% 55%
—
Jan 10 Minuteman Flames Hogan @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
53% 35%
—
Jan 16 Top Gun - Hayes @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum Upcoming
44% 41%
—
Jan 17 IHC West 2014 - Warilla @ Seacoast Spartans Upcoming
21% 64%
—
Jan 17 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum Upcoming
52% 30%
—
Jan 23 IHC West 2014 - Warilla @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum Upcoming
54% 30%
—
Jan 23 CT Blue Devil Rangers @ Seacoast Spartans Upcoming
15% 73%
—
Jan 23 NorthStars - Giombetti @ South Shore Kings Upcoming
14% 78%
—
Jan 23 CT Blue Devil Rangers @ Seacoast Spartans Upcoming
15% 73%
—
Jan 23 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
62% 24%
—
Jan 24 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher @ Top Gun - Hayes Upcoming
48% 33%
—
Jan 24 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ NorthStars - Giombetti Upcoming
38% 49%
—
Jan 24 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames Hogan Upcoming
29% 60%
—
Jan 24 South Shore Kings @ IHC West 2014 - Warilla Upcoming
53% 32%
—
Jan 30 Minuteman Flames Hogan @ Top Gun - Hayes Upcoming
40% 45%
—
Jan 30 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum Upcoming
52% 30%
—
Jan 30 NorthStars - Giombetti @ IHC West 2014 - Warilla Upcoming
27% 60%
—
Jan 30 South Shore Kings @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
81% 12%
—
Jan 31 NorthStars - Giombetti @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher Upcoming
26% 59%
—
Jan 31 Top Gun - Hayes @ Seacoast Spartans Upcoming
13% 76%
—
Jan 31 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Minuteman Flames Hogan Upcoming
35% 50%
—
Jan 31 IHC West 2014 - Warilla @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
63% 24%
—
Feb 06 South Shore Kings @ IHC West 2014 - Warilla Upcoming
53% 32%
—
Feb 06 CT Blue Devil Rangers @ Top Gun - Hayes Upcoming
42% 42%
—
Feb 06 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Seacoast Spartans Upcoming
6% 89%
—
Feb 06 CT Blue Devil Rangers @ Top Gun - Hayes Upcoming
42% 42%
—
Feb 06 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher @ Minuteman Flames Hogan Upcoming
49% 33%
—
Feb 06 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ NorthStars - Giombetti Upcoming
38% 49%
—
Feb 07 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Top Gun - Hayes Upcoming
29% 59%
—
Feb 07 CT Blue Devil Rangers @ IHC West 2014 - Warilla Upcoming
32% 52%
—
Feb 07 Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames Hogan Upcoming
73% 16%
—
Feb 07 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ South Shore Kings Upcoming
15% 75%
—
Feb 07 CT Blue Devil Rangers @ IHC West 2014 - Warilla Upcoming
32% 52%
—
Feb 13 Seacoast Spartans @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum Upcoming
75% 14%
—
Feb 13 Seacoast Spartans @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum Upcoming
75% 14%
—
Feb 13 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher Upcoming
20% 68%
—
Feb 14 Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun - Hayes Upcoming
71% 16%
—
Feb 20 Minuteman Flames Hogan @ South Shore Kings Upcoming
17% 72%
—
Feb 20 NorthStars - Giombetti @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
52% 38%
—
Feb 21 Minuteman Flames Hogan @ NorthStars - Giombetti Upcoming
43% 44%
—
Feb 27 Minuteman Flames Hogan @ Top Gun - Hayes Upcoming
40% 45%
—
Feb 27 Seacoast Spartans @ IHC West 2014 - Warilla Upcoming
60% 24%
—
Feb 27 NorthStars - Giombetti @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum Upcoming
43% 44%
—
Feb 27 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings Upcoming
9% 85%
—
Feb 28 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red)- Kelleher Upcoming
56% 26%
—
Feb 28 South Shore Kings @ NorthStars - Giombetti Upcoming
73% 18%
—
Feb 28 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ IHC West 2014 - Warilla Upcoming
26% 59%
—
Feb 28 Top Gun - Hayes @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
52% 35%
—