The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS
1 Seacoast Spartans 35 24 4 7 137 68 55
2 South Shore Kings 35 24 8 3 154 85 51
3 Islanders Hockey Club (East) 34 15 12 7 111 121 37
4 Boston Jr Eagles 35 13 12 10 142 135 36
5 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 35 15 15 5 86 81 35
6 NorthStars Hockey Club 34 14 17 3 134 163 31
7 Minuteman Flames - Hogan 24 13 7 4 85 60 30
8 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 34 12 17 5 107 143 29
9 Top Gun 36 5 24 7 87 150 17
10 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 34 4 23 7 83 120 15

Game Log

Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Feb 22 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 4–2
69.2%
14.6%
0.53
Feb 22 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 5–0
69.2%
14.5%
0.53
Feb 22 Seacoast Spartans @ NorthStars Hockey Club 4–0
69.8%
14.0%
0.52
Feb 22 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 7–3
61.7%
22.0%
0.70
Feb 21 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Seacoast Spartans 3–6
13.4%
70.3%
0.51
Feb 21 NorthStars Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 1–6
18.1%
65.6%
0.61
Feb 21 Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 5–3
70.3%
13.4%
0.51
Feb 21 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–6
45.4%
38.3%
1.39
Feb 21 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 2–1
51.8%
31.9%
0.95
Feb 21 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 2–6
6.2%
77.5%
0.37
Feb 21 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–2
45.4%
38.3%
2.62
Feb 15 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 4–1
66.9%
16.7%
0.58
Feb 15 Top Gun @ Seacoast Spartans 1–3
8.6%
75.0%
0.42
Feb 14 South Shore Kings @ Seacoast Spartans 1–3
37.8%
45.5%
1.14
Feb 14 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 5–4
19.7%
63.6%
2.34
Feb 11 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Top Gun 0–3
78.3%
5.0%
4.33 UPSET
Feb 08 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–4
71.8%
10.8%
3.21 UPSET
Feb 08 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Seacoast Spartans 1–8
15.2%
67.5%
0.57
Feb 08 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 1–6
9.1%
73.5%
0.44
Feb 08 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 1–7
34.9%
47.7%
1.07
Feb 08 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 2–1
47.7%
34.9%
1.07
Feb 08 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 8–3
31.9%
50.7%
1.65
Feb 07 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 1–4
34.6%
48.1%
1.06
Feb 07 Seacoast Spartans @ NorthStars Hockey Club 8–4
66.8%
15.9%
0.58
Feb 07 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Top Gun 2–2
55.8%
26.9%
2.53 UPSET
Feb 07 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 2–4
12.9%
69.9%
0.52
Feb 07 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 2–6
22.1%
60.6%
0.72
Feb 01 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Top Gun 4–3
57.3%
25.6%
0.80
Feb 01 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Seacoast Spartans 1–1
54.2%
28.8%
2.55 UPSET
Feb 01 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 2–4
61.1%
21.8%
2.19
Feb 01 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 0–3
42.1%
40.8%
1.29
Jan 31 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–8
39.4%
43.8%
1.19
Jan 31 Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun 4–1
75.0%
8.2%
0.42
Jan 31 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ South Shore Kings 3–4
16.6%
66.5%
0.59
Jan 31 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Top Gun 2–2
61.5%
21.6%
2.57 UPSET
Jan 25 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 3–1
70.7%
12.1%
0.50
Jan 25 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–2
33.8%
49.0%
1.57
Jan 25 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 2–4
35.5%
47.3%
1.08
Jan 24 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 2–0
47.3%
35.0%
1.08
Jan 24 Seacoast Spartans @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 2–3
69.5%
12.8%
2.97 UPSET
Jan 24 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 1–4
47.3%
35.0%
1.51
Jan 24 Boston Jr Eagles @ NorthStars Hockey Club 7–3
44.1%
38.2%
1.18
Jan 11 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Top Gun 6–3
77.7%
4.7%
0.36
Jan 11 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–2
64.5%
17.9%
0.63
Jan 11 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 6–0
72.2%
10.2%
0.47
Jan 11 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 4–6
37.8%
44.6%
1.16
Jan 11 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–2
34.8%
47.6%
2.51 UPSET
Jan 10 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 0–6
45.5%
36.4%
1.46
Jan 10 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ South Shore Kings 0–9
23.8%
58.1%
0.78
Jan 10 Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 5–1
24.5%
57.3%
2.03
Jan 10 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Top Gun 7–4
54.2%
27.7%
0.88
Jan 04 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ South Shore Kings 2–8
67.5%
14.4%
2.79 UPSET
Jan 04 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Seacoast Spartans 8–7
12.5%
69.4%
3.00 UPSET
Jan 04 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–5
21.6%
60.3%
0.73
Jan 04 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 0–2
37.1%
44.9%
1.16
Jan 04 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 3–3
40.1%
41.8%
2.47
Jan 03 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–4
23.8%
58.2%
0.78
Jan 03 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Seacoast Spartans 2–2
11.4%
70.6%
2.48
Jan 03 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ NorthStars Hockey Club 1–5
50.3%
31.7%
1.66
Jan 03 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 2–7
7.3%
74.7%
0.42
Jan 03 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ South Shore Kings 1–4
28.6%
53.4%
0.91
Dec 28 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ NorthStars Hockey Club 4–6
50.8%
30.6%
1.71
Dec 28 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 0–5
3.8%
77.6%
0.37
Dec 28 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 1–6
33.3%
48.1%
1.05
Dec 28 Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 3–1
63.3%
18.1%
0.66
Dec 27 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 5–2
62.6%
19.2%
0.67
Dec 27 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 2–1
74.9%
6.9%
0.42
Dec 27 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Top Gun 2–2
58.1%
23.7%
2.46
Dec 21 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ South Shore Kings 3–1
26.3%
55.6%
1.93
Dec 21 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–3
44.1%
37.8%
2.47
Dec 21 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Seacoast Spartans 0–6
14.6%
67.3%
0.57
Dec 21 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 7–3
72.3%
9.6%
0.47
Dec 21 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 1–4
32.0%
49.8%
1.00
Dec 20 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–6
34.3%
46.8%
1.10
Dec 20 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ NorthStars Hockey Club 4–6
51.1%
29.9%
1.74
Dec 20 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 3–2
6.5%
74.6%
3.94 UPSET
Dec 20 Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings 5–2
46.0%
35.1%
1.12
Dec 20 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Top Gun 3–2
59.0%
22.1%
0.76
Dec 17 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 1–7
5.8%
75.1%
0.41
Dec 14 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 7–7
55.3%
25.8%
2.41
Dec 14 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ NorthStars Hockey Club 5–8
49.4%
31.7%
1.66
Dec 14 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Seacoast Spartans 3–5
63.8%
17.3%
2.53 UPSET
Dec 14 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ South Shore Kings 1–6
22.8%
58.4%
0.78
Dec 13 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 4–3
11.0%
71.4%
3.19 UPSET
Dec 13 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 5–5
29.3%
53.0%
2.50 UPSET
Dec 13 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 2–3
4.7%
77.6%
0.37
Dec 13 Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 2–2
62.4%
19.9%
2.50 UPSET
Dec 07 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–3
78.2%
4.4%
2.53 UPSET
Dec 07 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Top Gun 2–1
61.3%
21.4%
0.71
Dec 07 NorthStars Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 3–4
18.4%
64.3%
0.64
Dec 07 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 3–0
37.7%
45.0%
1.41
Dec 06 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 4–1
54.6%
28.3%
0.87
Dec 06 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ NorthStars Hockey Club 3–6
49.1%
33.9%
1.56
Dec 06 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Seacoast Spartans 1–2
25.2%
57.8%
0.79
Dec 06 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 3–3
4.8%
78.2%
2.55 UPSET
Dec 03 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 2–6
2.7%
80.1%
0.32
Nov 30 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 4–4
36.5%
48.0%
2.68
Nov 30 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 4–5
32.0%
52.4%
0.93
Nov 30 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Top Gun 2–2
60.0%
24.4%
2.68 UPSET
Nov 29 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 4–2
44.2%
39.7%
1.18
Nov 29 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 0–1
47.9%
36.0%
1.47
Nov 29 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–9
39.9%
44.0%
1.19
Nov 23 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ NorthStars Hockey Club 1–2
49.3%
35.1%
1.51
Nov 23 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 2–5
22.0%
62.3%
0.68
Nov 23 Minuteman Flames - Hogan @ South Shore Kings 2–2
77.2%
7.1%
2.67 UPSET
Nov 23 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 5–7
38.0%
46.3%
1.11
Nov 22 Seacoast Spartans @ Top Gun 2–1
74.3%
9.3%
0.43
Nov 22 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 0–5
34.4%
49.1%
1.02
Nov 22 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 7–4
34.6%
49.0%
1.53
Nov 22 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ South Shore Kings 3–8
31.5%
52.0%
0.94
Nov 16 South Shore Kings @ NorthStars Hockey Club 3–5
64.2%
20.0%
2.32
Nov 16 Seacoast Spartans @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–3
62.2%
22.0%
2.66 UPSET
Nov 16 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–6
47.0%
37.2%
1.43
Nov 15 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 5–1
54.1%
30.6%
0.89
Nov 15 Boston Jr Eagles @ Seacoast Spartans 1–6
18.0%
66.8%
0.58
Nov 15 Top Gun @ NorthStars Hockey Club 6–3
21.8%
62.9%
2.20
Nov 15 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 5–5
45.0%
39.7%
2.71
Nov 09 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 2–5
26.3%
58.0%
0.79
Nov 09 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 1–6
6.2%
78.1%
0.36
Nov 08 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Eagles 7–3
49.5%
34.3%
1.01
Nov 08 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames - Hogan 3–1
5.0%
78.9%
4.33 UPSET
Nov 02 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–5
14.7%
71.2%
2.83 UPSET
Nov 02 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 0–2
44.0%
41.9%
1.25
Nov 02 South Shore Kings @ Seacoast Spartans 1–1
33.1%
52.8%
2.83 UPSET
Nov 01 Top Gun @ NorthStars Hockey Club 6–4
13.6%
71.4%
2.87 UPSET
Nov 01 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 7–6
53.7%
31.3%
0.90
Nov 01 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–3
59.9%
25.1%
0.74
Oct 26 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ South Shore Kings 1–6
36.3%
49.7%
1.01
Oct 26 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 1–2
64.4%
21.6%
2.21
Oct 26 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–3
42.4%
43.5%
2.83
Oct 25 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 2–1
38.7%
46.5%
1.37
Oct 25 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 5–2
77.8%
7.4%
0.36
Oct 25 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–5
41.5%
43.7%
1.19
Oct 19 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ NorthStars Hockey Club 4–3
40.7%
44.0%
1.30
Oct 19 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–4
50.5%
34.1%
0.98
Oct 18 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Seacoast Spartans 3–1
14.6%
70.8%
2.77 UPSET
Oct 18 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 1–1
55.2%
30.2%
2.78 UPSET
Oct 12 Seacoast Spartans @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 5–4
70.7%
13.7%
0.50
Oct 12 Boston Jr Eagles @ NorthStars Hockey Club 7–2
31.7%
52.7%
1.66
Oct 11 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–2
36.9%
46.4%
1.44
Oct 11 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–8
54.6%
28.8%
1.80
Oct 05 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 1–6
8.6%
75.6%
0.40
Oct 05 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Seacoast Spartans 1–1
5.2%
79.0%
2.66 UPSET
Oct 04 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 0–2
6.3%
76.5%
0.39
Sep 28 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 8–4
55.1%
26.2%
0.86
Sep 28 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Seacoast Spartans 2–5
3.9%
77.4%
0.37
Sep 28 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 4–3
57.6%
23.6%
0.79
Sep 27 Top Gun @ Seacoast Spartans 4–4
0.0%
80.7%
2.38
Sep 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 4–0
20.8%
60.0%
2.27
Sep 27 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 5–2
44.2%
36.6%
1.18
Sep 27 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ NorthStars Hockey Club 4–5
32.6%
48.1%
1.05
Sep 21 South Shore Kings @ NorthStars Hockey Club 6–8
34.1%
42.1%
1.25
Sep 21 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 2–4
3.9%
72.3%
0.47
Sep 21 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Seacoast Spartans 0–3
1.0%
75.2%
0.41
Sep 20 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ South Shore Kings 2–4 50/50 —
Sep 20 Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 4–5
47.3%
27.7% ⚠
1.85
Sep 20 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club (East) 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 14 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 4–0 50/50 —
Sep 14 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Boston Jr Terriers (Red) 2–1 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Eagles @ Seacoast Spartans 0–4 50/50 —
Sep 14 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 0–6 50/50 —
Sep 13 Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings 5–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 6–6 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers (Red) @ Top Gun 5–0 50/50 —
Sep 13 Islanders Hockey Club (East) @ Providence Capitals (North) - Batista 5–9 50/50 —
Sep 07 Providence Capitals (North) - Batista @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 06 NorthStars Hockey Club @ Top Gun 5–3 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2014 Platinum 2–2 50/50 —