The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	GF	GA	PTS	Champ %
1	Young Guns	37	28	4	5	181	85	61	0%
2	Team Boston	36	23	8	5	147	108	51	0%
3	Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum	37	21	9	7	187	124	49	0%
4	MC Selects	36	20	10	6	217	146	46	0%
5	Team Merrimack West	36	17	17	2	209	227	36	46%
6	Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	37	15	18	4	176	174	34	0%
7	New England Jr Dogs	37	14	20	3	138	180	31	0%
8	Providence (North) - Taylor	36	8	20	8	160	214	24	—
9	South Shore Knights	36	10	23	3	109	162	23	—
10	IHC East 17 - Bonito	24	7	11	6	73	74	20	54%
11	Boston Jr Dogs (White)	36	4	27	5	130	233	13	—

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

#	Team	Proj. Finish	Win Division	Proj. Points
1	Young Guns	1	100%	61 (61–61)
2	Team Boston	2	<1%	52 (51–52)
3	Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum	3	<1%	50 (48–50)
4	MC Selects	4	<1%	47 (45–47)
5	Team Merrimack West	5	<1%	36 (36–36)
6	Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	6	<1%	34 (34–34)
7	New England Jr Dogs	7	<1%	30 (30–32)
8	Providence (North) - Taylor	8	<1%	24 (24–24)
9	South Shore Knights	9	<1%	22 (22–24)
10	IHC East 17 - Bonito	10	<1%	20 (20–20)
11	Boston Jr Dogs (White)	11	<1%	12 (12–13)

Game Log

Date	Matchup	Score	Pre-game Probability	Surprisal	Flag
Feb 22	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ IHC East 17 - Bonito	2–8	19% 68%	0.55
Feb 22	Young Guns @ Providence (North) - Taylor	5–2	84% 8%	0.25
Feb 22	Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ South Shore Knights	3–1	75% 14%	0.42
Feb 22	New England Jr Dogs @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	5–2	25% 63%	1.99
Feb 22	MC Selects @ Team Merrimack West	11–3	69% 22%	0.54
Feb 21	Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	4–3	33% 57%	1.61
Feb 21	New England Jr Dogs @ Young Guns	0–3	8% 84%	0.24
Feb 21	South Shore Knights @ Providence (North) - Taylor	3–2	33% 54%	1.60
Feb 21	Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Team Boston	4–2	43% 41%	1.23
Feb 15	Providence (North) - Taylor @ Team Boston	4–5	15% 75%	0.42
Feb 15	South Shore Knights @ New England Jr Dogs	2–3	34% 51%	0.96
Feb 15	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	10–3	71% 19%	0.50
Feb 15	Young Guns @ IHC East 17 - Bonito	2–2	68% 17%	2.69	UPSET
Feb 15	MC Selects @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum	10–1	33% 54%	1.59
Feb 14	Team Boston @ New England Jr Dogs	4–0	65% 22%	0.62
Feb 14	Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Young Guns	2–3	28% 56%	0.84
Feb 14	New England Jr Dogs @ Team Boston	3–1	16% 73%	2.64	UPSET
Feb 14	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Young Guns	2–10	4% 91%	0.13
Feb 14	IHC East 17 - Bonito @ MC Selects	3–1	22% 65%	2.21
Feb 08	New England Jr Dogs @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	6–3	52% 36%	0.96
Feb 08	MC Selects @ Young Guns	6–8	24% 62%	0.68
Feb 08	IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum	5–5	18% 68%	2.81	UPSET
Feb 08	South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack West	5–7	24% 65%	0.62
Feb 07	Team Boston @ South Shore Knights	2–0	70% 17%	0.51
Feb 07	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ MC Selects	4–7	24% 65%	0.63
Feb 07	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum	4–3	5% 90%	4.26	UPSET
Feb 07	New England Jr Dogs @ Providence (North) - Taylor	6–4	38% 50%	1.41
Feb 07	IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Young Guns	0–0	12% 75%	2.94	UPSET
Feb 01	New England Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack West	2–5	29% 61%	0.72
Feb 01	South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	7–4	44% 41%	1.17
Feb 01	IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	2–2	31% 54%	2.75	UPSET
Feb 01	MC Selects @ Providence (North) - Taylor	4–4	76% 16%	3.60	UPSET
Feb 01	Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum	2–4	50% 34%	1.57
Jan 31	Team Merrimack West @ IHC East 17 - Bonito	2–6	49% 37%	1.42
Jan 31	Team Boston @ MC Selects	5–8	40% 46%	1.14
Jan 31	Providence (North) - Taylor @ Young Guns	3–5	6% 89%	0.17
Jan 31	New England Jr Dogs @ South Shore Knights	7–5	44% 40%	1.17
Jan 25	Providence (North) - Taylor @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	7–2	51% 37%	0.97
Jan 25	Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	5–1	72% 17%	0.47
Jan 25	New England Jr Dogs @ IHC East 17 - Bonito	4–3	34% 49%	1.54
Jan 25	Team Merrimack West @ Team Boston	4–7	21% 69%	0.54
Jan 24	Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Team Merrimack West	8–4	71% 20%	0.49
Jan 24	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Young Guns	1–9	5% 90%	0.15
Jan 24	New England Jr Dogs @ MC Selects	1–8	14% 78%	0.36
Jan 24	IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Providence (North) - Taylor	7–4	40% 45%	1.32
Jan 18	Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	5–4	67% 24%	0.58
Jan 11	IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	6–2	42% 42%	1.25
Jan 11	Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	9–3	30% 60%	1.73
Jan 11	Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Young Guns	3–3	30% 54%	2.63	UPSET
Jan 10	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ South Shore Knights	1–5	42% 43%	1.21
Jan 10	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ New England Jr Dogs	3–5	64% 25%	2.01
Jan 10	IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Team Boston	0–5	18% 66%	0.60
Jan 10	Team Merrimack West @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum	5–9	14% 78%	0.36
Jan 10	Providence (North) - Taylor @ MC Selects	2–12	16% 76%	0.40
Jan 04	Team Boston @ Young Guns	5–7	24% 59%	0.77
Jan 04	Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	5–3	82% 10%	0.28
Jan 04	Providence (North) - Taylor @ South Shore Knights	0–7	57% 30%	1.74
Jan 04	MC Selects @ Team Merrimack West	5–7	66% 25%	2.02
Jan 04	Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	3–4	70% 18%	2.46
Jan 03	New England Jr Dogs @ MC Selects	4–8	14% 77%	0.37
Jan 03	Providence (North) - Taylor @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum	2–8	13% 79%	0.35
Jan 03	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ South Shore Knights	4–3	71% 18%	0.50
Jan 03	Team Boston @ IHC East 17 - Bonito	2–1	62% 21%	0.68
Jan 03	Team Merrimack West @ Young Guns	4–6	7% 87%	0.20
Dec 28	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Boston	3–6	31% 55%	0.87
Dec 28	New England Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack West	3–13	37% 52%	0.95
Dec 27	IHC East 17 - Bonito @ New England Jr Dogs	2–2	36% 48%	2.65
Dec 27	IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Team Merrimack West	2–5	38% 49%	1.03
Dec 21	MC Selects @ IHC East 17 - Bonito	5–0	58% 29%	0.80
Dec 21	New England Jr Dogs @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	3–1	49% 39%	1.03
Dec 21	Team Boston @ Young Guns	3–3	21% 63%	2.59	UPSET
Dec 21	Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Providence (North) - Taylor	10–3	70% 19%	0.51
Dec 21	Team Merrimack West @ South Shore Knights	7–6	60% 28%	0.74
Dec 20	IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Team Boston	1–2	24% 61%	0.71
Dec 20	Team Merrimack West @ New England Jr Dogs	8–5	41% 48%	1.30
Dec 20	South Shore Knights @ Providence (North) - Taylor	3–3	22% 67%	3.13	UPSET
Dec 20	Young Guns @ MC Selects	4–3	65% 22%	0.61
Dec 14	Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	7–7	53% 36%	3.25
Dec 14	Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	8–5	45% 39%	1.14
Dec 14	IHC East 17 - Bonito @ South Shore Knights	2–1	59% 26%	0.76
Dec 14	MC Selects @ Providence (North) - Taylor	5–5	65% 25%	3.29	UPSET
Dec 13	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	5–7	15% 77%	0.38
Dec 13	Team Boston @ Providence (North) - Taylor	4–4	62% 26%	2.96	UPSET
Dec 13	Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ IHC East 17 - Bonito	2–1	66% 22%	0.60
Dec 13	South Shore Knights @ MC Selects	1–10	13% 78%	0.36
Dec 07	Team Merrimack West @ South Shore Knights	5–1	52% 37%	0.96
Dec 07	Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	3–3	91% 4%	4.38	UPSET
Dec 07	New England Jr Dogs @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	2–12	31% 57%	0.82
Dec 07	Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum	5–1	29% 55%	1.80
Dec 07	Providence (North) - Taylor @ IHC East 17 - Bonito	3–3	36% 52%	3.08
Dec 06	South Shore Knights @ IHC East 17 - Bonito	6–5	20% 67%	2.30
Dec 06	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ New England Jr Dogs	4–4	22% 68%	3.29	UPSET
Dec 06	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum	2–2	21% 67%	3.13	UPSET
Dec 06	MC Selects @ Team Boston	3–3	39% 46%	2.74
Dec 06	Providence (North) - Taylor @ Team Merrimack West	7–10	48% 41%	1.28
Dec 06	South Shore Knights @ Young Guns	2–7	5% 88%	0.18
Nov 30	Providence (North) - Taylor @ New England Jr Dogs	5–8	40% 47%	1.08
Nov 30	Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	2–4	76% 14%	2.83	UPSET
Nov 30	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Merrimack West	7–8	64% 26%	1.96
Nov 30	Young Guns @ IHC East 17 - Bonito	4–3	77% 12%	0.37
Nov 29	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ IHC East 17 - Bonito	4–5	50/50	—
Nov 29	Providence (North) - Taylor @ South Shore Knights	6–6	58% 29%	2.93	UPSET
Nov 29	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ IHC East 17 - Bonito	5–3	50/50	—
Nov 29	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack West	10–8	24% 67%	2.06
Nov 23	Providence (North) - Taylor @ Young Guns	1–7	8% 85%	0.24
Nov 23	New England Jr Dogs @ South Shore Knights	3–6	62% 24%	2.04
Nov 23	MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	9–5	42% 45%	1.25
Nov 22	Young Guns @ New England Jr Dogs	4–1	78% 12%	0.37
Nov 22	South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum	1–4	7% 86%	0.22
Nov 22	Team Merrimack West @ Providence (North) - Taylor	7–13	36% 53%	0.92
Nov 22	MC Selects @ Team Boston	6–2	29% 57%	1.78
Nov 16	MC Selects @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum	0–4	25% 64%	0.65
Nov 16	Team Boston @ New England Jr Dogs	6–3	56% 29%	0.84
Nov 16	Providence (North) - Taylor @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	4–4	25% 64%	3.21	UPSET
Nov 16	Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	9–3	92% 4%	0.13
Nov 15	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum	1–9	6% 88%	0.18
Nov 15	MC Selects @ Young Guns	4–1	10% 82%	3.35	UPSET
Nov 15	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ New England Jr Dogs	3–5	54% 34%	1.57
Nov 15	Team Boston @ IHC East 17 - Bonito	4–3	50/50	—
Nov 15	South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack West	3–4	24% 64%	0.63
Nov 09	South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	6–4	35% 51%	1.51
Nov 09	Team Merrimack West @ MC Selects	6–8	25% 65%	0.61
Nov 08	Team Boston @ MC Selects	3–2	51% 35%	0.96
Nov 08	South Shore Knights @ Young Guns	2–1	2% 94%	5.57	UPSET
Nov 08	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack West	4–7	25% 65%	0.62
Nov 02	MC Selects @ New England Jr Dogs	8–3	41% 47%	1.29
Nov 02	Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	7–6	78% 12%	0.36
Nov 02	Young Guns @ Providence (North) - Taylor	5–1	87% 7%	0.20
Nov 02	Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	4–4	55% 32%	2.97	UPSET
Nov 01	Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ MC Selects	9–4	58% 30%	0.79
Nov 01	Providence (North) - Taylor @ Team Boston	3–4	19% 70%	0.51
Nov 01	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Young Guns	4–6	10% 82%	0.29
Oct 26	Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Team Boston	3–4	42% 42%	1.25
Oct 26	MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	6–2	70% 21%	0.52
Oct 26	South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	0–2	10% 82%	0.29
Oct 26	New England Jr Dogs @ Providence (North) - Taylor	3–4	52% 36%	1.46
Oct 25	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ New England Jr Dogs	3–8	21% 69%	0.54
Oct 25	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ MC Selects	7–5	43% 45%	1.21
Oct 25	Team Boston @ South Shore Knights	3–1	78% 11%	0.36
Oct 25	Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum	4–0	61% 25%	0.71
Oct 25	Team Merrimack West @ Providence (North) - Taylor	4–7	42% 47%	1.08
Oct 19	New England Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum	1–9	29% 58%	0.77
Oct 19	Providence (North) - Taylor @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	8–1	12% 80%	3.00	UPSET
Oct 18	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Boston	4–3	32% 53%	1.64
Oct 18	Providence (North) - Taylor @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum	5–3	6% 89%	4.02	UPSET
Oct 18	Team Merrimack West @ MC Selects	9–3	14% 80%	2.87	UPSET
Oct 18	New England Jr Dogs @ Young Guns	3–4	9% 82%	0.28
Oct 12	South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	3–6	10% 83%	0.27
Oct 12	Providence (North) - Taylor @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	4–7	48% 41%	1.29
Oct 12	Team Merrimack West @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum	5–6	7% 88%	0.18
Oct 11	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum	7–5	23% 65%	2.10
Oct 11	Providence (North) - Taylor @ Team Merrimack West	11–11	36% 53%	3.27
Oct 05	Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	7–2	87% 7%	0.20
Oct 05	MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	7–5	38% 49%	1.39
Oct 05	Young Guns @ South Shore Knights	8–1	90% 4%	0.15
Oct 05	Team Boston @ Providence (North) - Taylor	6–2	74% 16%	0.43
Oct 04	New England Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum	6–7	20% 69%	0.54
Oct 04	Young Guns @ Team Boston	6–1	51% 31%	0.98
Oct 04	Providence (North) - Taylor @ MC Selects	4–5	8% 87%	0.20
Oct 04	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ South Shore Knights	5–7	47% 38%	1.40
Oct 04	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Merrimack West	4–8	93% 4%	4.62	UPSET
Sep 28	MC Selects @ South Shore Knights	10–3	72% 18%	0.47
Sep 28	New England Jr Dogs @ Team Boston	4–6	26% 58%	0.78
Sep 28	Young Guns @ Team Merrimack West	7–2	94% 3%	0.08
Sep 27	South Shore Knights @ New England Jr Dogs	2–1	12% 79%	3.04	UPSET
Sep 27	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ MC Selects	5–12	24% 64%	0.64
Sep 27	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Young Guns	2–4	32% 54%	0.89
Sep 27	Team Boston @ Team Merrimack West	10–1	70% 19%	0.51
Sep 21	South Shore Knights @ Team Boston	2–3	11% 78%	0.36
Sep 21	Young Guns @ New England Jr Dogs	4–1	54% 32%	0.88
Sep 21	Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	5–4	40% 47%	1.32
Sep 20	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Providence (North) - Taylor	6–8	49% 39%	1.35
Sep 20	Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum	3–3	24% 61%	2.72	UPSET
Sep 20	Young Guns @ MC Selects	4–2	50/50	—
Sep 20	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ South Shore Knights	7–3	92% 4% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	0.12
Sep 14	Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Providence (North) - Taylor	12–4	50/50	—
Sep 14	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	5–4	50/50	—
Sep 14	MC Selects @ New England Jr Dogs	7–6	20% 69% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	2.29
Sep 14	Young Guns @ Team Merrimack West	5–3	50/50	—
Sep 13	Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ New England Jr Dogs	3–4	50/50	—
Sep 13	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ MC Selects	7–7	50/50	—
Sep 13	Team Merrimack West @ Team Boston	2–8	50/50	—
Sep 13	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Providence (North) - Taylor	13–3	50/50	—
Sep 13	Young Guns @ South Shore Knights	10–1	50/50	—
Sep 07	South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum	2–10	50/50	—
Sep 07	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	3–8	50/50	—
Sep 06	South Shore Knights @ Team Boston	2–3	50/50	—
Sep 06	Team Merrimack West @ New England Jr Dogs	8–13	50/50	—
Sep 06	Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ MC Selects	6–6	50/50	—
Sep 06	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Providence (North) - Taylor	3–8	50/50	—
Aug 31	Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Team Merrimack West	8–2	50/50	—
Aug 01	MC Selects @ South Shore Knights	0–0	50/50	—
Aug 01	Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ New England Jr Dogs	0–0	50/50	—
Aug 01	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Boston	0–0	50/50	—