The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS
1 Young Guns 37 28 4 5 181 85 61
2 Team Boston 35 23 8 4 147 108 50
3 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 36 21 9 6 187 124 48
4 MC Selects 35 20 10 5 217 146 45
5 Team Merrimack West 36 17 17 2 209 227 36
6 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 37 15 18 4 177 174 34
7 New England Jr Dogs 36 14 20 2 138 180 30
8 Providence (North) - Taylor 36 8 20 8 160 215 24
9 South Shore Knights 35 10 23 2 109 162 22
10 IHC East 17 - Bonito 24 7 11 6 73 74 20
11 Boston Jr Dogs (White) 35 4 27 4 130 233 12

Game Log

Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Feb 22 MC Selects @ Team Merrimack West 11–3
63.4%
24.5%
0.66
Feb 22 New England Jr Dogs @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 5–2
28.1%
59.8%
1.83
Feb 22 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 2–8
6.8%
81.1%
0.30
Feb 22 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ South Shore Knights 3–1
75.7%
12.2%
0.40
Feb 22 Young Guns @ Providence (North) - Taylor 5–2
80.5%
7.4%
0.31
Feb 21 Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 4–3
39.0%
48.6%
1.36
Feb 21 New England Jr Dogs @ Young Guns 0–3
7.8%
79.9%
0.32
Feb 21 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Team Boston 4–2
47.1%
40.5%
1.09
Feb 21 South Shore Knights @ Providence (North) - Taylor 3–2
37.8%
49.8%
1.40
Feb 15 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Team Boston 4–5
16.8%
71.0%
0.49
Feb 15 MC Selects @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 10–1
36.1%
51.8%
1.47
Feb 15 South Shore Knights @ New England Jr Dogs 2–3
38.0%
49.8%
1.01
Feb 15 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 10–3
68.4%
19.4%
0.55
Feb 15 Young Guns @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 2–2
55.4%
32.5%
3.04 UPSET
Feb 14 Team Boston @ New England Jr Dogs 4–0
70.6%
16.9%
0.50
Feb 14 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Young Guns 2–3
32.5%
55.0%
0.86
Feb 14 New England Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 3–1
16.9%
70.6%
2.57 UPSET
Feb 14 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ MC Selects 3–1
52.4%
35.1%
0.93
Feb 14 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Young Guns 2–10
4.6%
82.9%
0.27
Feb 08 New England Jr Dogs @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 6–3
53.7%
34.1%
0.90
Feb 08 MC Selects @ Young Guns 6–8
25.6%
62.2%
0.68
Feb 08 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 5–5
44.8%
42.9%
3.03
Feb 08 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack West 5–7
27.3%
60.5%
0.73
Feb 07 New England Jr Dogs @ Providence (North) - Taylor 6–4
41.1%
46.9%
1.28
Feb 07 Team Boston @ South Shore Knights 2–0
74.3%
13.7%
0.43
Feb 07 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ MC Selects 4–7
27.0%
61.0%
0.71
Feb 07 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 4–3
6.5%
81.5%
3.94 UPSET
Feb 07 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Young Guns 0–0
32.9%
55.1%
3.06 UPSET
Feb 01 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 7–4
49.0%
39.9%
1.03
Feb 01 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–2
69.1%
19.7%
3.16 UPSET
Feb 01 MC Selects @ Providence (North) - Taylor 4–4
73.7%
15.2%
3.16 UPSET
Feb 01 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 2–4
57.9%
30.9%
1.69
Feb 01 New England Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack West 2–5
31.9%
57.0%
0.81
Jan 31 Team Boston @ MC Selects 5–8
44.2%
44.4%
1.17
Jan 31 Team Merrimack West @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 2–6
17.7%
70.8%
0.50
Jan 31 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Young Guns 3–5
6.3%
82.3%
0.28
Jan 31 New England Jr Dogs @ South Shore Knights 7–5
49.0%
39.6%
1.03
Jan 25 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 7–2
53.5%
34.8%
0.90
Jan 25 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 5–1
75.3%
13.0%
0.41
Jan 25 New England Jr Dogs @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 4–3
8.8%
79.5%
3.51 UPSET
Jan 25 Team Merrimack West @ Team Boston 4–7
24.5%
63.8%
0.65
Jan 24 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Team Merrimack West 8–4
69.4%
18.6%
0.53
Jan 24 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Young Guns 1–9
4.8%
83.2%
0.27
Jan 24 New England Jr Dogs @ MC Selects 1–8
15.3%
72.7%
0.46
Jan 24 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Providence (North) - Taylor 7–4
78.1%
9.9%
0.36
Jan 18 Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 5–4
64.9%
23.0%
0.62
Jan 11 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Young Guns 3–3
32.7%
55.7%
3.10 UPSET
Jan 11 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 6–2
80.7%
7.6%
0.31
Jan 11 Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 9–3
35.8%
52.5%
1.48
Jan 10 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ South Shore Knights 1–5
47.4%
40.5%
1.30
Jan 10 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ New England Jr Dogs 3–5
66.3%
21.6%
2.21
Jan 10 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Team Boston 0–5
58.8%
29.1%
1.78
Jan 10 Team Merrimack West @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 5–9
17.2%
70.8%
0.50
Jan 10 Providence (North) - Taylor @ MC Selects 2–12
19.1%
68.8%
0.54
Jan 04 Providence (North) - Taylor @ South Shore Knights 0–7
62.0%
25.5%
1.97
Jan 04 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 3–4
74.9%
12.6%
2.99 UPSET
Jan 04 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 5–3
79.7%
7.8%
0.33
Jan 04 Team Boston @ Young Guns 5–7
20.6%
66.9%
0.58
Jan 04 MC Selects @ Team Merrimack West 5–7
61.5%
26.0%
1.94
Jan 03 New England Jr Dogs @ MC Selects 4–8
16.4%
70.6%
0.50
Jan 03 Team Boston @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 2–1
29.8%
57.3%
1.75
Jan 03 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 2–8
14.4%
72.7%
0.46
Jan 03 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ South Shore Knights 4–3
73.0%
14.0%
0.45
Jan 03 Team Merrimack West @ Young Guns 4–6
8.7%
78.3%
0.35
Dec 28 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Boston 3–6
33.0%
53.9%
0.89
Dec 28 New England Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack West 3–13
36.2%
50.7%
0.98
Dec 27 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ New England Jr Dogs 2–2
79.6%
7.8%
2.99 UPSET
Dec 27 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Team Merrimack West 2–5
77.3%
10.1%
3.31 UPSET
Dec 21 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Providence (North) - Taylor 10–3
71.4%
16.3%
0.49
Dec 21 Team Merrimack West @ South Shore Knights 7–6
66.7%
21.0%
0.58
Dec 21 MC Selects @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 5–0
17.9%
69.8%
2.48
Dec 21 New England Jr Dogs @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–1
50.4%
37.3%
0.99
Dec 21 Team Boston @ Young Guns 3–3
17.3%
70.4%
3.02 UPSET
Dec 20 Young Guns @ MC Selects 4–3
74.5%
13.6%
0.42
Dec 20 Team Merrimack West @ New England Jr Dogs 8–5
49.0%
39.1%
1.03
Dec 20 South Shore Knights @ Providence (North) - Taylor 3–3
19.5%
68.6%
3.07 UPSET
Dec 20 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Team Boston 1–2
67.5%
20.6%
2.28
Dec 14 Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 7–7
57.2%
32.2%
3.23 UPSET
Dec 14 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ South Shore Knights 2–1
86.8%
2.6%
0.20
Dec 14 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 8–5
53.7%
35.7%
0.90
Dec 14 MC Selects @ Providence (North) - Taylor 5–5
65.0%
24.3%
3.23 UPSET
Dec 13 South Shore Knights @ MC Selects 1–10
11.8%
78.0%
0.36
Dec 13 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 5–7
16.9%
72.9%
0.46
Dec 13 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 2–1
24.7%
65.2%
2.02
Dec 13 Team Boston @ Providence (North) - Taylor 4–4
69.2%
20.6%
3.30 UPSET
Dec 07 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 5–1
33.3%
57.9%
1.59
Dec 07 Providence (North) - Taylor @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 3–3
5.9%
85.2%
3.50 UPSET
Dec 07 Team Merrimack West @ South Shore Knights 5–1
62.4%
28.7%
0.68
Dec 07 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–3
89.0%
2.1%
3.50 UPSET
Dec 07 New England Jr Dogs @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–12
31.4%
59.8%
0.74
Dec 06 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 2–2
21.0%
72.5%
3.93 UPSET
Dec 06 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ New England Jr Dogs 4–4
29.8%
63.7%
3.93 UPSET
Dec 06 South Shore Knights @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 6–5
1.5%
92.0%
6.10 UPSET
Dec 06 MC Selects @ Team Boston 3–3
39.6%
53.8%
3.93
Dec 06 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Team Merrimack West 7–10
56.1%
37.4%
1.42
Dec 06 South Shore Knights @ Young Guns 2–7
1.5%
92.0%
0.12
Nov 30 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–4
86.0%
7.2%
3.80 UPSET
Nov 30 Providence (North) - Taylor @ New England Jr Dogs 5–8
55.6%
37.6%
1.41
Nov 30 Young Guns @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 4–3
44.1%
49.1%
1.18
Nov 30 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Merrimack West 7–8
70.5%
22.7%
2.14
Nov 29 Providence (North) - Taylor @ South Shore Knights 6–6
75.4%
18.5%
4.04 UPSET
Nov 29 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 4–5
3.2%
90.8%
0.14
Nov 29 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 5–3
3.2%
90.8%
4.98 UPSET
Nov 29 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack West 10–8
30.2%
63.7%
1.73
Nov 23 New England Jr Dogs @ South Shore Knights 3–6
75.3%
18.4%
2.44
Nov 23 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 9–5
49.6%
44.1%
1.01
Nov 23 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Young Guns 1–7
4.8%
88.9%
0.17
Nov 22 Young Guns @ New England Jr Dogs 4–1
89.8%
3.7%
0.16
Nov 22 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 1–4
3.1%
90.4%
0.15
Nov 22 Team Merrimack West @ Providence (North) - Taylor 7–13
37.1%
56.4%
0.83
Nov 22 MC Selects @ Team Boston 6–2
27.3%
66.2%
1.88
Nov 16 MC Selects @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 0–4
29.4%
64.9%
0.62
Nov 16 Team Boston @ New England Jr Dogs 6–3
78.8%
15.5%
0.34
Nov 16 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 4–4
29.4%
64.9%
4.14 UPSET
Nov 16 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 9–3
92.8%
1.5%
0.11
Nov 15 Team Boston @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 4–3
5.5%
88.5%
4.18 UPSET
Nov 15 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 1–9
6.4%
87.5%
0.19
Nov 15 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack West 3–4
21.8%
72.2%
0.47
Nov 15 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ New England Jr Dogs 3–5
70.3%
23.7%
2.08
Nov 15 MC Selects @ Young Guns 4–1
5.8%
88.2%
4.10 UPSET
Nov 09 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 6–4
23.9%
69.9%
2.06
Nov 09 Team Merrimack West @ MC Selects 6–8
19.0%
74.8%
0.42
Nov 08 Team Boston @ MC Selects 3–2
66.3%
27.3%
0.59
Nov 08 South Shore Knights @ Young Guns 2–1
0.2%
93.4%
9.34 UPSET
Nov 08 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack West 4–7
39.9%
53.7%
0.90
Nov 02 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 7–6
90.6%
4.0%
0.14
Nov 02 Young Guns @ Providence (North) - Taylor 5–1
92.5%
2.1%
0.11
Nov 02 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 4–4
64.1%
30.5%
4.21 UPSET
Nov 02 MC Selects @ New England Jr Dogs 8–3
63.3%
31.3%
0.66
Nov 01 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ MC Selects 9–4
61.1%
33.1%
0.71
Nov 01 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Team Boston 3–4
12.7%
81.6%
0.29
Nov 01 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Young Guns 4–6
3.8%
90.4%
0.14
Oct 26 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 6–2
81.7%
12.2%
0.29
Oct 26 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 0–2
3.4%
90.4%
0.15
Oct 26 New England Jr Dogs @ Providence (North) - Taylor 3–4
46.8%
47.1%
1.09
Oct 26 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Team Boston 3–4
39.3%
54.6%
0.87
Oct 25 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ New England Jr Dogs 3–8
33.3%
59.9%
0.74
Oct 25 Team Boston @ South Shore Knights 3–1
91.6%
1.7%
0.13
Oct 25 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ MC Selects 7–5
46.2%
47.0%
1.11
Oct 25 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 4–0
81.8%
11.4%
0.29
Oct 25 Team Merrimack West @ Providence (North) - Taylor 4–7
32.9%
60.3%
0.73
Oct 19 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 8–1
13.6%
79.3%
2.87 UPSET
Oct 19 New England Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 1–9
19.3%
73.7%
0.44
Oct 18 Team Merrimack West @ MC Selects 9–3
7.2%
85.2%
3.79 UPSET
Oct 18 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Boston 4–3
29.0%
63.4%
1.78
Oct 18 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 5–3
7.8%
84.6%
3.68 UPSET
Oct 18 New England Jr Dogs @ Young Guns 3–4
1.9%
90.5%
0.14
Oct 12 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 3–6
3.4%
88.6%
0.17
Oct 12 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 4–7
59.2%
32.8%
1.61
Oct 12 Team Merrimack West @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 5–6
4.6%
87.4%
0.19
Oct 11 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 7–5
28.4%
65.2%
1.81
Oct 11 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Team Merrimack West 11–11
62.9%
30.7%
3.97 UPSET
Oct 05 Team Boston @ Providence (North) - Taylor 6–2
82.2%
10.7%
0.28
Oct 05 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 7–5
44.0%
48.8%
1.18
Oct 05 Young Guns @ South Shore Knights 8–1
91.8%
1.1%
0.12
Oct 05 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 7–2
84.8%
8.0%
0.24
Oct 04 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Merrimack West 4–8
88.7%
3.0%
5.07 UPSET
Oct 04 New England Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 6–7
18.5%
73.2%
0.45
Oct 04 Young Guns @ Team Boston 6–1
58.4%
33.3%
0.78
Oct 04 Providence (North) - Taylor @ MC Selects 4–5
15.5%
76.2%
0.39
Oct 04 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ South Shore Knights 5–7
69.0%
22.7%
2.14
Sep 28 Young Guns @ Team Merrimack West 7–2
88.6%
2.0%
0.17
Sep 28 MC Selects @ South Shore Knights 10–3
81.8%
8.9%
0.29
Sep 28 New England Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 4–6
13.9%
76.8%
0.38
Sep 27 South Shore Knights @ New England Jr Dogs 2–1
5.1%
83.8%
4.31 UPSET
Sep 27 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ MC Selects 5–12
26.0%
62.9%
0.67
Sep 27 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Young Guns 2–4
24.4%
64.5%
0.63
Sep 27 Team Boston @ Team Merrimack West 10–1
85.4%
3.5%
0.23
Sep 21 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 5–4
49.1%
36.6%
1.03
Sep 21 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 2–3
4.2%
90.7%
0.14
Sep 21 Young Guns @ New England Jr Dogs 4–1
69.3%
17.9%
0.53
Sep 20 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Providence (North) - Taylor 6–8
49.4%
39.6% ⚠
1.34
Sep 20 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ South Shore Knights 7–3
99.8%
0.1% ⚠
0.00
Sep 20 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 20 Young Guns @ MC Selects 4–2 50/50 —
Sep 14 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Providence (North) - Taylor 12–4 50/50 —
Sep 14 MC Selects @ New England Jr Dogs 7–6 50/50 —
Sep 14 Young Guns @ Team Merrimack West 5–3 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 5–4 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ MC Selects 7–7 50/50 —
Sep 13 Team Merrimack West @ Team Boston 2–8 50/50 —
Sep 13 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ New England Jr Dogs 3–4 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Providence (North) - Taylor 14–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Young Guns @ South Shore Knights 10–1 50/50 —
Sep 07 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 2–10 50/50 —
Sep 07 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 3–8 50/50 —
Sep 06 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 2–3 50/50 —
Sep 06 Team Merrimack West @ New England Jr Dogs 8–13 50/50 —
Sep 06 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ MC Selects 6–6 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Providence (North) - Taylor 3–8 50/50 —
Aug 31 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Team Merrimack West 8–2 50/50 —