The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Boston Jr Eagles 8 5 0 3 33 19 13 —
2 IHC West 9 5 2 2 47 42 12 —
3 South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul 8 4 2 2 35 24 10 —
4 Top Gun 7 4 2 1 31 14 9 —
5 Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum 8 3 3 2 38 34 8 —
6 Providence 2017 North - LHeureux 7 3 3 1 31 32 7 —
7 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato 7 3 3 1 32 35 7 —
8 Spartans - Staubitz 8 2 3 3 27 33 7 —
9 Bulldogs Hockey Club 7 1 5 1 29 35 3 —
10 Minuteman Flames Griffin 9 0 7 2 16 51 2 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Top Gun 2 (1–5) 30% 49 (38–56)
2 Boston Jr Eagles 2 (1–5) 31% 48 (39–57)
3 South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul 2 (1–5) 33% 49 (38–58)
4 IHC West 5 (2–8) 3% 38 (29–47)
5 Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum 5 (3–8) 1% 38 (29–46)
6 Providence 2017 North - LHeureux 6 (3–9) 1% 34 (25–44)
7 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato 6 (3–9) <1% 33 (25–42)
8 Spartans - Staubitz 7 (4–9) <1% 32 (24–41)
9 Bulldogs Hockey Club 8 (5–9) <1% 30 (22–38)
10 Minuteman Flames Griffin 10 <1% 11 (5–18)
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Sep 05 Spartans - Staubitz @ IHC West 4–8 50/50 —
Sep 12 Top Gun @ Spartans - Staubitz 7–4 50/50 —
Sep 12 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum 7–5 50/50 —
Sep 13 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames Griffin 9–0 50/50 —
Sep 19 Minuteman Flames Griffin @ Providence 2017 North - LHeureux 3–5 50/50 —
Sep 19 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Spartans - Staubitz 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 19 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato @ South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul 2–3 50/50 —
Sep 19 IHC West @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum 5–9 50/50 —
Sep 20 South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul @ IHC West 8–3 50/50 —
Sep 20 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames Griffin 6–0 50/50 —
Sep 20 Providence 2017 North - LHeureux @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 8–7 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–5 50/50 —
Sep 26 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–3 50/50 —
Sep 26 Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum @ Minuteman Flames Griffin Upcoming 50/50 —
Sep 26 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul 4–8 50/50 —
Sep 27 Spartans - Staubitz @ Providence 2017 North - LHeureux 4–2 50/50 —
Sep 27 Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 4–7 50/50 —
Sep 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul 5–0 50/50 —
Sep 27 Minuteman Flames Griffin @ IHC West 2–6
18% 73%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.46
Oct 03 Spartans - Staubitz @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum 2–5
34% 53%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.92
Oct 03 IHC West @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–3
10% 83%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
3.86 UPSET
Oct 03 Minuteman Flames Griffin @ South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul 0–7
6% 88%
0.19
Oct 04 South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul @ Spartans - Staubitz 3–3
70% 18%
3.08 UPSET
Oct 04 IHC West @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum 5–4
33% 55%
1.59
Oct 04 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 3–2
68% 21%
0.56
Oct 10 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum 1–1
72% 18%
3.30 UPSET
Oct 10 Minuteman Flames Griffin @ IHC West 3–4
6% 88%
0.18
Oct 17 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames Griffin 5–5
88% 5%
3.80 UPSET
Oct 17 Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum @ Providence 2017 North - LHeureux 7–4
51% 36%
0.97
Oct 17 IHC West @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato 7–3
24% 65%
2.06
Oct 17 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames Griffin 6–0
82% 9%
0.29
Oct 17 Top Gun @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 4–2
74% 16%
0.44
Oct 18 Minuteman Flames Griffin @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum 3–3
7% 86%
3.93 UPSET
Oct 18 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato @ Spartans - Staubitz 4–6
51% 35%
1.52
Oct 18 Top Gun @ Providence 2017 North - LHeureux 2–4
81% 11%
3.22 UPSET
Oct 24 Providence 2017 North - LHeureux @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–3
20% 68%
0.57
Oct 24 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato 4–5
41% 46%
1.12
Oct 24 Top Gun @ IHC West Upcoming
63% 24%
—
Oct 24 Spartans - Staubitz @ South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul 1–1
20% 67%
—
Oct 25 IHC West @ Providence 2017 North - LHeureux 6–6
46% 42%
—
Oct 25 South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato 5–6
60% 27%
—
Oct 25 Spartans - Staubitz @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
20% 66%
—
Oct 31 Providence 2017 North - LHeureux @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum Upcoming
35% 51%
—
Oct 31 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun Upcoming
33% 49%
—
Oct 31 IHC West @ Spartans - Staubitz Upcoming
48% 38%
—
Nov 01 South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum Upcoming
55% 31%
—
Nov 01 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato @ Providence 2017 North - LHeureux Upcoming
41% 46%
—
Nov 01 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ IHC West Upcoming
34% 54%
—
Nov 07 Minuteman Flames Griffin @ Top Gun Upcoming
4% 90%
—
Nov 07 Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato Upcoming
44% 42%
—
Nov 07 Providence 2017 North - LHeureux @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
22% 65%
—
Nov 08 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
22% 65%
—
Nov 08 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul Upcoming
46% 37%
—
Nov 08 Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum @ Minuteman Flames Griffin Upcoming
77% 13%
—
Nov 14 IHC West @ Providence 2017 North - LHeureux Upcoming
46% 42%
—
Nov 14 Spartans - Staubitz @ South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul Upcoming
20% 67%
—
Nov 14 Minuteman Flames Griffin @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
12% 79%
—
Nov 15 Providence 2017 North - LHeureux @ Minuteman Flames Griffin Upcoming
74% 16%
—
Nov 15 South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul @ IHC West Upcoming
56% 30%
—
Nov 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul Upcoming
40% 43%
—
Nov 21 IHC West @ Top Gun Upcoming
20% 69%
—
Nov 21 Spartans - Staubitz @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
38% 48%
—
Nov 21 Minuteman Flames Griffin @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum Upcoming
10% 82%
—
Nov 22 Boston Jr Eagles @ Spartans - Staubitz Upcoming
61% 24%
—
Nov 22 IHC West @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
47% 41%
—
Nov 22 Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum @ Top Gun Upcoming
20% 67%
—
Nov 22 Minuteman Flames Griffin @ South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul Upcoming
6% 88%
—
Nov 28 Spartans - Staubitz @ Top Gun Upcoming
16% 72%
—
Nov 28 Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum @ South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul Upcoming
26% 61%
—
Nov 28 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
42% 45%
—
Nov 29 South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul @ Providence 2017 North - LHeureux Upcoming
60% 26%
—
Nov 29 Spartans - Staubitz @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum Upcoming
33% 54%
—
Nov 29 Minuteman Flames Griffin @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato Upcoming
12% 80%
—
Nov 29 Top Gun @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
68% 20%
—
Dec 05 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum Upcoming
35% 52%
—
Dec 05 Spartans - Staubitz @ Minuteman Flames Griffin Upcoming
70% 18%
—
Dec 05 Top Gun @ Providence 2017 North - LHeureux Upcoming
66% 21%
—
Dec 05 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato @ South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul Upcoming
22% 66%
—
Dec 05 IHC West @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
25% 62%
—
Dec 06 IHC West @ Top Gun Upcoming
20% 69%
—
Dec 06 South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul @ Minuteman Flames Griffin Upcoming
85% 7%
—
Dec 06 Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
25% 61%
—
Dec 06 Spartans - Staubitz @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato Upcoming
37% 50%
—
Dec 06 Providence 2017 North - LHeureux @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
41% 46%
—
Dec 12 Providence 2017 North - LHeureux @ South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul Upcoming
22% 66%
—
Dec 12 Top Gun @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato Upcoming
66% 21%
—
Dec 12 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
61% 25%
—
Dec 12 Top Gun @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato Upcoming
66% 21%
—
Dec 12 IHC West @ Spartans - Staubitz Upcoming
48% 38%
—
Dec 13 IHC West @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato Upcoming
45% 42%
—
Dec 13 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence 2017 North - LHeureux Upcoming
60% 26%
—
Dec 13 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames Griffin Upcoming
74% 15%
—
Dec 13 South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul @ Top Gun Upcoming
32% 51%
—
Dec 19 Minuteman Flames Griffin @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
6% 87%
—
Dec 19 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ IHC West Upcoming
34% 54%
—
Dec 19 South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum Upcoming
55% 31%
—
Dec 19 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato @ Top Gun Upcoming
17% 71%
—
Dec 19 Spartans - Staubitz @ Providence 2017 North - LHeureux Upcoming
37% 49%
—
Dec 20 Spartans - Staubitz @ Minuteman Flames Griffin Upcoming
70% 18%
—
Dec 20 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun Upcoming
33% 49%
—
Dec 20 Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato Upcoming
44% 42%
—
Dec 20 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Providence 2017 North - LHeureux Upcoming
40% 47%
—
Dec 26 Providence 2017 North - LHeureux @ IHC West Upcoming
35% 52%
—
Dec 26 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum Upcoming
35% 52%
—
Dec 26 South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
38% 45%
—
Dec 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ IHC West Upcoming
56% 30%
—
Dec 27 Providence 2017 North - LHeureux @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato Upcoming
39% 47%
—
Dec 27 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames Griffin Upcoming
74% 15%
—
Jan 01 Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum @ Spartans - Staubitz Upcoming
47% 38%
—
Jan 02 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato @ IHC West Upcoming
36% 52%
—
Jan 02 Providence 2017 North - LHeureux @ Top Gun Upcoming
17% 71%
—
Jan 02 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum Upcoming
55% 30%
—
Jan 02 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul Upcoming
21% 67%
—
Jan 03 IHC West @ Minuteman Flames Griffin Upcoming
79% 12%
—
Jan 03 Providence 2017 North - LHeureux @ South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul Upcoming
22% 66%
—
Jan 03 Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum @ Top Gun Upcoming
20% 67%
—
Jan 03 Boston Jr Eagles @ Spartans - Staubitz Upcoming
61% 24%
—
Jan 03 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato Upcoming
39% 48%
—
Jan 09 South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
38% 45%
—
Jan 09 Top Gun @ Spartans - Staubitz Upcoming
67% 20%
—
Jan 09 Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum @ Providence 2017 North - LHeureux Upcoming
45% 41%
—
Jan 10 Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum @ IHC West Upcoming
40% 47%
—
Jan 10 Providence 2017 North - LHeureux @ Spartans - Staubitz Upcoming
43% 43%
—
Jan 10 South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul @ Top Gun Upcoming
32% 51%
—
Jan 16 Minuteman Flames Griffin @ Spartans - Staubitz Upcoming
14% 75%
—
Jan 16 Minuteman Flames Griffin @ Spartans - Staubitz Upcoming
14% 75%
—
Jan 17 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato @ Spartans - Staubitz Upcoming
44% 43%
—
Jan 23 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
44% 38%
—
Jan 23 Providence 2017 North - LHeureux @ Minuteman Flames Griffin Upcoming
74% 16%
—
Jan 23 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato @ IHC West Upcoming
36% 52%
—
Jan 23 South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
62% 26%
—
Jan 24 Boston Jr Eagles @ IHC West Upcoming
56% 30%
—
Jan 24 Minuteman Flames Griffin @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato Upcoming
12% 80%
—
Jan 24 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Top Gun Upcoming
16% 73%
—
Jan 24 South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul @ Providence 2017 North - LHeureux Upcoming
60% 26%
—
Jan 30 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Spartans - Staubitz Upcoming
42% 44%
—
Jan 30 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato @ Top Gun Upcoming
17% 71%
—
Jan 30 Providence 2017 North - LHeureux @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum Upcoming
35% 51%
—
Jan 30 IHC West @ South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul Upcoming
25% 62%
—
Jan 31 Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
46% 41%
—
Jan 31 Spartans - Staubitz @ IHC West Upcoming
33% 55%
—
Jan 31 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence 2017 North - LHeureux Upcoming
60% 26%
—
Jan 31 South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato Upcoming
60% 27%
—
Feb 06 Spartans - Staubitz @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
20% 66%
—
Feb 06 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Top Gun Upcoming
16% 73%
—
Feb 06 South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul @ Minuteman Flames Griffin Upcoming
85% 7%
—
Feb 06 Providence 2017 North - LHeureux @ IHC West Upcoming
35% 52%
—
Feb 06 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum Upcoming
36% 51%
—
Feb 07 Minuteman Flames Griffin @ Providence 2017 North - LHeureux Upcoming
12% 78%
—
Feb 07 South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul @ Spartans - Staubitz Upcoming
62% 25%
—
Feb 07 IHC West @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
47% 41%
—
Feb 07 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato Upcoming
60% 27%
—
Feb 13 Providence 2017 North - LHeureux @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato Upcoming
39% 47%
—
Feb 13 Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
25% 61%
—
Feb 13 Minuteman Flames Griffin @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
12% 79%
—
Feb 13 Spartans - Staubitz @ Top Gun Upcoming
16% 72%
—
Feb 14 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
42% 45%
—
Feb 14 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum Upcoming
62% 24%
—
Feb 20 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
21% 66%
—
Feb 20 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato @ Minuteman Flames Griffin Upcoming
75% 15%
—
Feb 20 Top Gun @ IHC West Upcoming
63% 24%
—
Feb 20 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
21% 66%
—
Feb 20 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato @ Minuteman Flames Griffin Upcoming
75% 15%
—
Feb 20 Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum @ South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul Upcoming
26% 61%
—
Feb 20 Providence 2017 North - LHeureux @ Spartans - Staubitz Upcoming
43% 43%
—
Feb 21 IHC West @ South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul Upcoming
25% 62%
—
Feb 21 Minuteman Flames Griffin @ Top Gun Upcoming
4% 90%
—
Feb 21 Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum @ Spartans - Staubitz Upcoming
47% 38%
—
Feb 21 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Providence 2017 North - LHeureux Upcoming
40% 47%
—
Feb 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato Upcoming
60% 27%
—
Feb 27 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato @ Providence 2017 North - LHeureux Upcoming
41% 46%
—
Feb 27 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul Upcoming
46% 37%
—
Feb 27 IHC West @ Minuteman Flames Griffin Upcoming
79% 12%
—
Feb 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum Upcoming
55% 30%
—
Feb 27 Spartans - Staubitz @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
38% 48%
—
Feb 28 Providence 2017 North - LHeureux @ Top Gun Upcoming
17% 71%
—
Feb 28 Bay State Breakers 2017 Platinum @ IHC West Upcoming
40% 47%
—
Feb 28 South Shore Kings 2017 Rumul @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
62% 26%
—
Feb 28 Spartans - Staubitz @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Trovato Upcoming
37% 50%
—
Feb 28 Minuteman Flames Griffin @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
6% 87%
—