The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell 10 8 1 1 71 14 17 —
2 Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 7 6 1 0 50 13 12 —
3 Northeast Generals Enos 8 5 2 1 40 32 11 —
4 BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT 9 5 4 0 57 25 10 —
5 Shamrocks - Conti 10 3 3 4 46 50 10 —
6 Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi 9 2 6 1 23 63 5 —
7 Shamrocks - MacDonald 9 1 7 1 28 63 3 —
8 Northern Cyclones- Markunas 8 1 7 0 19 74 2 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell 1 (1–3) 57% 59 (53–65)
2 BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT 2 (1–4) 17% 54 (47–59)
3 Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 2 (1–4) 21% 54 (45–61)
4 Northeast Generals Enos 3 (2–4) 5% 50 (43–57)
5 Shamrocks - Conti 5 <1% 31 (25–37)
6 Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi 6 (6–7) <1% 20 (14–25)
7 Northern Cyclones- Markunas 7 (6–8) <1% 12 (5–19)
8 Shamrocks - MacDonald 8 (6–8) <1% 10 (5–16)
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 03 Northern Cyclones- Markunas @ Shamrocks - MacDonald Upcoming 50/50 —
Sep 05 Shamrocks - MacDonald @ Shamrocks - Conti 7–7 50/50 —
Sep 12 BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT @ Northeast Generals Enos 2–3 50/50 —
Sep 12 Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell @ Shamrocks - Conti 8–2 50/50 —
Sep 12 Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 @ Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi 8–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell @ Shamrocks - MacDonald 12–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 @ BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT 3–0 50/50 —
Sep 19 Northern Cyclones- Markunas @ BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT 0–15 50/50 —
Sep 19 Shamrocks - MacDonald @ Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi 2–5 50/50 —
Sep 19 Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 @ Shamrocks - Conti 9–1 50/50 —
Sep 19 Northeast Generals Enos @ Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell 2–8 50/50 —
Sep 20 Shamrocks - Conti @ Shamrocks - MacDonald 10–1
47% 41%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.09
Sep 20 Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell @ Northern Cyclones- Markunas 13–1 50/50 —
Sep 26 Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi @ Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell 0–12 50/50 —
Sep 26 BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT @ Northeast Generals Enos 7–3 50/50 —
Sep 26 Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 @ Shamrocks - MacDonald 9–2
98% 1%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.03
Sep 26 Shamrocks - Conti @ Northern Cyclones- Markunas 11–4 50/50 —
Sep 27 Shamrocks - Conti @ Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell 0–0
2% 96%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
5.60 UPSET
Sep 27 Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi @ BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT 3–10
6% 89%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.17
Oct 03 Northeast Generals Enos @ Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi 6–1
69% 20%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.53
Oct 03 Northern Cyclones- Markunas @ Shamrocks - MacDonald 9–4
24% 66%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
2.04
Oct 04 Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell @ BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT 6–3
63% 24%
0.67
Oct 04 Shamrocks - Conti @ Northeast Generals Enos 3–10
37% 50%
1.02
Oct 04 Northern Cyclones- Markunas @ Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 0–12
0% 99%
0.01
Oct 10 Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell @ Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi 6–1
98% 1%
0.03
Oct 10 Northeast Generals Enos @ BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT 6–4
24% 64%
2.04
Oct 10 Shamrocks - Conti @ Shamrocks - MacDonald 5–4
86% 8%
0.23
Oct 11 Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi @ Shamrocks - Conti 3–3
20% 70%
3.24 UPSET
Oct 17 BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT @ Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi 12–1
91% 5%
0.14
Oct 17 Northern Cyclones- Markunas @ Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 1–6
0% 100%
0.01
Oct 17 Northeast Generals Enos @ Shamrocks - Conti 4–4
77% 14%
3.48 UPSET
Oct 17 Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell @ Shamrocks - MacDonald 6–0
100% 0%
0.01
Oct 18 Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell @ BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT 0–4
63% 24%
2.07
Oct 18 Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi @ Northern Cyclones- Markunas 6–4
53% 35%
0.92
Oct 24 Northern Cyclones- Markunas @ BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Oct 24 Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 @ Northeast Generals Enos 3–6
65% 22%
2.19
Oct 25 Northern Cyclones- Markunas @ Shamrocks - MacDonald 0–7
41% 47%
—
Oct 31 Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell @ Northern Cyclones- Markunas Upcoming
100% 0%
—
Oct 31 Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 @ Shamrocks - MacDonald Upcoming
98% 1%
—
Oct 31 Shamrocks - Conti @ BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT Upcoming
4% 91%
—
Nov 01 Northeast Generals Enos @ BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT Upcoming
24% 64%
—
Nov 01 Shamrocks - Conti @ Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 Upcoming
6% 87%
—
Nov 01 Northern Cyclones- Markunas @ Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi Upcoming
25% 64%
—
Nov 07 Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 @ Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell Upcoming
26% 58%
—
Nov 07 Northeast Generals Enos @ Shamrocks - MacDonald Upcoming
97% 1%
—
Nov 07 Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi @ Shamrocks - Conti Upcoming
18% 72%
—
Nov 08 BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT @ Shamrocks - Conti Upcoming
89% 6%
—
Nov 14 Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell @ Northeast Generals Enos Upcoming
67% 20%
—
Nov 14 Shamrocks - Conti @ Shamrocks - MacDonald Upcoming
81% 11%
—
Nov 15 Northern Cyclones- Markunas @ Shamrocks - Conti Upcoming
8% 87%
—
Nov 15 Shamrocks - MacDonald @ Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Nov 15 BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT @ Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell Upcoming
29% 56%
—
Nov 21 Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell @ Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 Upcoming
52% 30%
—
Nov 21 Northeast Generals Enos @ Northern Cyclones- Markunas Upcoming
98% 1%
—
Nov 21 Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi @ Shamrocks - MacDonald Upcoming
57% 30%
—
Nov 22 BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT @ Shamrocks - MacDonald Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Nov 22 Northeast Generals Enos @ Shamrocks - Conti Upcoming
78% 14%
—
Nov 22 Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 @ Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi Upcoming
94% 2%
—
Nov 22 Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell @ Northern Cyclones- Markunas Upcoming
100% 0%
—
Nov 28 Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi @ Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Nov 28 BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT @ Shamrocks - Conti Upcoming
89% 6%
—
Nov 28 Northeast Generals Enos @ Shamrocks - MacDonald Upcoming
97% 1%
—
Nov 28 Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 @ Northern Cyclones- Markunas Upcoming
99% 1%
—
Nov 29 BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT @ Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 Upcoming
43% 41%
—
Nov 29 Shamrocks - MacDonald @ Northern Cyclones- Markunas Upcoming
40% 48%
—
Nov 29 Shamrocks - Conti @ Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell Upcoming
3% 93%
—
Nov 29 Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi @ Northeast Generals Enos Upcoming
3% 94%
—
Dec 05 BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT @ Northern Cyclones- Markunas Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Dec 05 Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell @ Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 Upcoming
52% 30%
—
Dec 05 Shamrocks - Conti @ Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi Upcoming
66% 22%
—
Dec 06 Shamrocks - Conti @ Northeast Generals Enos Upcoming
10% 82%
—
Dec 06 Northern Cyclones- Markunas @ Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Dec 06 Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi @ Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Dec 06 Shamrocks - MacDonald @ BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Dec 12 Northeast Generals Enos @ Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell Upcoming
16% 72%
—
Dec 12 Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 @ Shamrocks - MacDonald Upcoming
98% 1%
—
Dec 12 Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi @ Northern Cyclones- Markunas Upcoming
58% 30%
—
Dec 13 Shamrocks - Conti @ Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 Upcoming
6% 87%
—
Dec 13 Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi @ BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Dec 13 Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi @ BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Dec 13 Shamrocks - MacDonald @ Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Dec 19 Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi @ Shamrocks - MacDonald Upcoming
57% 30%
—
Dec 19 BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT @ Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 Upcoming
43% 41%
—
Dec 19 Northern Cyclones- Markunas @ Northeast Generals Enos Upcoming
1% 99%
—
Dec 19 Shamrocks - Conti @ Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell Upcoming
3% 93%
—
Dec 20 Shamrocks - Conti @ Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi Upcoming
66% 22%
—
Dec 20 Northeast Generals Enos @ Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 Upcoming
28% 58%
—
Dec 20 Shamrocks - MacDonald @ Northern Cyclones- Markunas Upcoming
40% 48%
—
Dec 20 BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT @ Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell Upcoming
29% 56%
—
Dec 26 Northeast Generals Enos @ Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Dec 26 Shamrocks - Conti @ BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT Upcoming
4% 91%
—
Dec 26 Northern Cyclones- Markunas @ Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi Upcoming
25% 64%
—
Dec 27 BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT @ Northeast Generals Enos Upcoming
58% 29%
—
Dec 27 Shamrocks - Conti @ Northern Cyclones- Markunas Upcoming
83% 10%
—
Dec 27 Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell @ Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 Upcoming
52% 30%
—
Jan 02 Shamrocks - MacDonald @ Northeast Generals Enos Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Jan 02 Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 @ Shamrocks - Conti Upcoming
84% 9%
—
Jan 03 Northern Cyclones- Markunas @ BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Jan 03 Northeast Generals Enos @ Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 Upcoming
28% 58%
—
Jan 09 Shamrocks - MacDonald @ Northern Cyclones- Markunas Upcoming
40% 48%
—
Jan 09 Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi @ Shamrocks - Conti Upcoming
18% 72%
—
Jan 09 BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT @ Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 Upcoming
43% 41%
—
Jan 10 Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi @ Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Jan 10 BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT @ Shamrocks - Conti Upcoming
89% 6%
—
Jan 10 Northeast Generals Enos @ Northern Cyclones- Markunas Upcoming
98% 1%
—
Jan 16 Northeast Generals Enos @ Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Jan 17 Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell @ Shamrocks - Conti Upcoming
91% 4%
—
Jan 23 Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell @ Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi Upcoming
97% 1%
—
Jan 23 BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT @ Shamrocks - MacDonald Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Jan 24 Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi @ Northeast Generals Enos Upcoming
3% 94%
—
Jan 24 Shamrocks - MacDonald @ Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Jan 30 Northern Cyclones- Markunas @ Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Jan 30 Shamrocks - MacDonald @ Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi Upcoming
25% 63%
—
Jan 30 Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell @ Northeast Generals Enos Upcoming
67% 20%
—
Jan 31 Northern Cyclones- Markunas @ Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Jan 31 Shamrocks - MacDonald @ Shamrocks - Conti Upcoming
8% 86%
—
Jan 31 Northeast Generals Enos @ Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 Upcoming
28% 58%
—
Feb 06 BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT @ Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell Upcoming
29% 56%
—
Feb 06 Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi @ Northern Cyclones- Markunas Upcoming
58% 30%
—
Feb 06 Shamrocks - MacDonald @ Northeast Generals Enos Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Feb 06 Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 @ Shamrocks - Conti Upcoming
84% 9%
—
Feb 07 Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 @ Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell Upcoming
26% 58%
—
Feb 07 Shamrocks - MacDonald @ BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Feb 07 Northern Cyclones- Markunas @ Northeast Generals Enos Upcoming
1% 99%
—
Feb 07 Shamrocks - Conti @ Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi Upcoming
66% 22%
—
Feb 13 Shamrocks - MacDonald @ Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Feb 13 Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell @ Northeast Generals Enos Upcoming
67% 20%
—
Feb 13 BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT @ Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi Upcoming
97% 1%
—
Feb 13 Shamrocks - Conti @ Northern Cyclones- Markunas Upcoming
83% 10%
—
Feb 14 Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell @ Shamrocks - MacDonald Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Feb 14 Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 @ Northern Cyclones- Markunas Upcoming
99% 1%
—
Feb 14 Northeast Generals Enos @ BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT Upcoming
24% 64%
—
Feb 20 Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 @ Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell Upcoming
26% 58%
—
Feb 20 Northern Cyclones- Markunas @ Northeast Generals Enos Upcoming
1% 99%
—
Feb 20 Shamrocks - MacDonald @ Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi Upcoming
25% 63%
—
Feb 21 Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 @ BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT Upcoming
36% 49%
—
Feb 21 Shamrocks - MacDonald @ Northeast Generals Enos Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Feb 21 Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi @ Providence Capitals 2013 South - Lake/Farrell Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Feb 27 Northeast Generals Enos @ Shamrocks - Conti Upcoming
78% 14%
—
Feb 27 BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT @ Northern Cyclones- Markunas Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Feb 27 Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 @ Boston Jr. Terriers White Tier 1-Bantam Minor 2013 Girardi Upcoming
94% 2%
—
Feb 28 Boston Junior Huskies 2026/2027-2013 @ Northeast Generals Enos Upcoming
53% 33%
—
Feb 28 Northern Cyclones- Markunas @ Shamrocks - Conti Upcoming
8% 87%
—
Feb 28 Shamrocks - MacDonald @ BOSTON VIPERS - 2013 SELECT Upcoming
0% 99%
—