The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	GF	GA	PTS	Champ %
1	Spartans - Staubitz	34	31	2	1	264	74	63	88%
2	Minuteman Sparks - Griffin	35	23	7	5	189	110	51	4%
3	Little Stars - Laverty	34	18	12	4	181	163	40	3%
4	Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko	35	15	18	2	201	174	32	5%
5	Bay State Waves 2017 UG	33	10	15	8	126	154	28	0%
6	Shamrocks - Cooke	34	9	21	4	101	191	22	0%
7	Providence (South) - Ciresi	28	7	19	2	114	198	16	0%
8	Manchester Inferno - Michaud	35	7	26	2	132	244	16	0%

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

#	Team	Proj. Finish	Win Division	Proj. Points
1	Spartans - Staubitz	1	100%	64 (64–64)
2	Minuteman Sparks - Griffin	2	<1%	52 (52–52)
3	Little Stars - Laverty	3	<1%	40 (40–40)
4	Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko	4	<1%	33 (31–33)
5	Bay State Waves 2017 UG	5	<1%	29 (27–29)
6	Shamrocks - Cooke	6	<1%	21 (21–23)
7	Providence (South) - Ciresi	7	<1%	15 (15–17)
8	Manchester Inferno - Michaud	8	<1%	14 (14–15)

Game Log

Date	Matchup	Score	Pre-game Probability	Surprisal	Flag
Feb 22	Spartans - Staubitz @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG	6–0	91% 4%	0.13
Feb 22	Shamrocks - Cooke @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko	6–4	10% 83%	3.35	UPSET
Feb 22	Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Little Stars - Laverty	3–2	61% 27%	0.72
Feb 21	Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud	13–3	77% 15%	0.38
Feb 21	Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Shamrocks - Cooke	3–3	62% 24%	2.88	UPSET
Feb 21	Little Stars - Laverty @ Spartans - Staubitz	2–7	5% 91%	0.14
Feb 15	Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud	9–2	86% 8%	0.22
Feb 15	Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Spartans - Staubitz	0–6	0% 99%	0.02
Feb 15	Little Stars - Laverty @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko	7–6	39% 49%	1.37
Feb 15	Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Spartans - Staubitz	4–12	0% 99%	0.02
Feb 14	Little Stars - Laverty @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko	1–11	46% 42%	1.24
Feb 14	Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Shamrocks - Cooke	3–3	86% 7%	3.88	UPSET
Feb 08	Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Shamrocks - Cooke	10–3	43% 43%	1.22
Feb 08	Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Spartans - Staubitz	3–6	15% 75%	0.42
Feb 08	Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Little Stars - Laverty	4–8	11% 83%	0.27
Feb 08	Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko	5–3	28% 60%	1.86
Feb 07	Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG	8–7	54% 33%	0.90
Feb 07	Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Shamrocks - Cooke	2–7	50% 37%	1.44
Feb 07	Spartans - Staubitz @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud	9–1	98% 1%	0.03
Feb 07	Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Shamrocks - Cooke	10–1	42% 44%	1.25
Feb 01	Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud	5–2	59% 29%	0.76
Feb 01	Shamrocks - Cooke @ Spartans - Staubitz	2–9	1% 98%	0.03
Feb 01	Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Little Stars - Laverty	5–3	58% 29%	0.79
Feb 01	Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko	5–12	13% 80%	0.33
Jan 31	Spartans - Staubitz @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko	5–4	90% 5%	0.15
Jan 31	Shamrocks - Cooke @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG	3–4	23% 64%	0.65
Jan 31	Little Stars - Laverty @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud	5–3	79% 13%	0.34
Jan 31	Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Providence (South) - Ciresi	6–1	87% 7%	0.20
Jan 25	Little Stars - Laverty @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG	6–6	59% 28%	2.98	UPSET
Jan 24	Little Stars - Laverty @ Spartans - Staubitz	1–7	6% 89%	0.17
Jan 24	Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud	8–6	40% 49%	1.34
Jan 24	Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin	2–5	21% 68%	0.55
Jan 24	Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud	9–4	34% 54%	1.55
Jan 18	Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG	2–2	72% 17%	3.16	UPSET
Jan 18	Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko	9–8	9% 84%	3.43	UPSET
Jan 17	Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko	4–7	28% 60%	0.75
Jan 17	Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin	8–5	2% 95%	5.52	UPSET
Jan 17	Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Providence (South) - Ciresi	10–2	92% 4%	0.11
Jan 11	Spartans - Staubitz @ Little Stars - Laverty	7–3	86% 8%	0.21
Jan 11	Shamrocks - Cooke @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG	4–2	21% 66%	2.25
Jan 11	Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin	0–9	6% 88%	0.18
Jan 11	Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko	1–8	10% 84%	0.26
Jan 10	Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Little Stars - Laverty	4–4	5% 91%	4.65	UPSET
Jan 10	Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud	8–3	52% 35%	0.94
Jan 10	Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Shamrocks - Cooke	8–1	83% 9%	0.27
Jan 10	Little Stars - Laverty @ Providence (South) - Ciresi	6–2	88% 7%	0.18
Jan 04	Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Shamrocks - Cooke	8–0	65% 23%	0.61
Jan 04	Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin	3–4	14% 76%	0.40
Jan 04	Spartans - Staubitz @ Providence (South) - Ciresi	5–3	100% 0%	0.01
Jan 03	Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Providence (South) - Ciresi	8–2	81% 12%	0.30
Jan 03	Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Providence (South) - Ciresi	11–4	76% 15%	0.39
Jan 03	Spartans - Staubitz @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG	9–3	93% 3%	0.11
Jan 03	Shamrocks - Cooke @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud	1–5	39% 48%	1.08
Jan 03	Little Stars - Laverty @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin	3–1	25% 64%	1.99
Dec 27	Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko	3–2	32% 55%	1.67
Dec 27	Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Little Stars - Laverty	7–8	10% 83%	0.26
Dec 21	Spartans - Staubitz @ Providence (South) - Ciresi	11–1	99% 0%	0.01
Dec 21	Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko	9–10	19% 72%	0.48
Dec 21	Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Little Stars - Laverty	5–7	20% 69%	0.53
Dec 21	Shamrocks - Cooke @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin	1–3	7% 86%	0.21
Dec 20	Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG	6–3	13% 78%	2.93	UPSET
Dec 20	Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin	3–6	5% 91%	0.14
Dec 20	Little Stars - Laverty @ Shamrocks - Cooke	7–3	74% 16%	0.43
Dec 20	Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Spartans - Staubitz	2–6	3% 94%	0.08
Dec 14	Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Providence (South) - Ciresi	3–6	82% 11%	3.21	UPSET
Dec 14	Spartans - Staubitz @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin	5–2	73% 17%	0.46
Dec 13	Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Spartans - Staubitz	2–12	1% 99%	0.02
Dec 13	Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin	1–10	1% 97%	0.04
Dec 07	Shamrocks - Cooke @ Providence (South) - Ciresi	5–3	61% 27%	0.72
Dec 07	Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Little Stars - Laverty	10–5	6% 89%	4.02	UPSET
Dec 07	Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Spartans - Staubitz	2–8	4% 92%	0.12
Dec 07	Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko	1–4	74% 17%	2.58	UPSET
Dec 06	Little Stars - Laverty @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin	1–10	39% 48%	1.04
Dec 06	Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Shamrocks - Cooke	5–4	30% 56%	1.71
Nov 30	Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Providence (South) - Ciresi	12–5	36% 52%	1.49
Nov 30	Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Providence (South) - Ciresi	8–5	25% 63%	2.02
Nov 30	Shamrocks - Cooke @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko	3–4	25% 63%	0.67
Nov 30	Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG	6–5	64% 24%	0.65
Nov 29	Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud	12–4	89% 6%	0.17
Nov 29	Shamrocks - Cooke @ Little Stars - Laverty	4–6	7% 87%	0.21
Nov 23	Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Little Stars - Laverty	4–7	2% 95%	0.07
Nov 23	Spartans - Staubitz @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko	7–2	93% 4%	0.10
Nov 23	Shamrocks - Cooke @ Providence (South) - Ciresi	10–4	50/50	—
Nov 22	Spartans - Staubitz @ Shamrocks - Cooke	8–1	96% 2%	0.05
Nov 16	Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Spartans - Staubitz	2–8	5% 90%	0.16
Nov 16	Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Shamrocks - Cooke	1–6	32% 53%	0.93
Nov 16	Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Little Stars - Laverty	5–9	50/50	—
Nov 15	Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko	1–11	20% 70%	0.52
Nov 15	Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Shamrocks - Cooke	7–2	64% 23%	0.65
Nov 09	Spartans - Staubitz @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin	7–0	68% 21%	0.56
Nov 09	Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Little Stars - Laverty	4–9	12% 80%	0.32
Nov 08	Spartans - Staubitz @ Little Stars - Laverty	6–2	65% 24%	0.62
Nov 08	Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin	3–4	12% 81%	0.31
Nov 02	Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Little Stars - Laverty	4–3	14% 77%	2.84	UPSET
Nov 02	Shamrocks - Cooke @ Spartans - Staubitz	2–12	2% 95%	0.07
Nov 01	Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG	2–9	23% 63%	0.66
Nov 01	Shamrocks - Cooke @ Little Stars - Laverty	3–8	6% 89%	0.17
Oct 26	Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Little Stars - Laverty	8–6	5% 91%	4.37	UPSET
Oct 25	Spartans - Staubitz @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud	9–2	95% 2%	0.07
Oct 25	Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Shamrocks - Cooke	1–2	53% 34%	1.58
Oct 19	Shamrocks - Cooke @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin	0–9	12% 79%	0.34
Oct 19	Little Stars - Laverty @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG	3–3	86% 8%	3.95	UPSET
Oct 18	Little Stars - Laverty @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud	9–1	90% 5%	0.16
Oct 18	Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin	3–3	12% 80%	3.57	UPSET
Oct 18	Spartans - Staubitz @ Shamrocks - Cooke	11–2	87% 7%	0.21
Oct 12	Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin	9–14	13% 77%	0.38
Oct 11	Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud	4–7	63% 24%	2.07
Oct 05	Spartans - Staubitz @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko	10–6	88% 6%	0.19
Oct 04	Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG	5–5	45% 39%	2.66
Oct 04	Little Stars - Laverty @ Spartans - Staubitz	9–4	14% 78%	2.88	UPSET
Sep 28	Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud	4–3	52% 32%	0.94
Sep 28	Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko	6–1	58% 28%	0.79
Sep 27	Shamrocks - Cooke @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG	4–3	40% 44%	1.31
Sep 21	Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin	1–8	14% 76%	0.41
Sep 21	Shamrocks - Cooke @ Spartans - Staubitz	1–11	6% 88% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	0.19
Sep 21	Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Little Stars - Laverty	2–10	20% 69% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	0.54
Sep 20	Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG	3–3	60% 27% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	2.90	UPSET
Sep 20	Shamrocks - Cooke @ Little Stars - Laverty	2–2	13% 78% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	3.54	UPSET
Sep 20	Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Spartans - Staubitz	1–10	4% 92% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	0.12
Sep 14	Little Stars - Laverty @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko	4–2	50/50	—
Sep 14	Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Spartans - Staubitz	3–2	7% 87% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	3.87	UPSET
Sep 13	Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG	2–7	50/50	—
Sep 13	Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Spartans - Staubitz	2–8	50/50	—
Sep 13	Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Shamrocks - Cooke	6–3	39% 46% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	1.36
Sep 07	Spartans - Staubitz @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG	11–1	50/50	—
Sep 07	Little Stars - Laverty @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin	6–7	50/50	—
Sep 07	Shamrocks - Cooke @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud	6–3	50/50	—
Sep 06	Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud	8–5	50/50	—
Sep 06	Little Stars - Laverty @ Shamrocks - Cooke	9–3	50/50	—
Sep 06	Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Spartans - Staubitz	3–10	50/50	—
Aug 01	Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG	0–0	50/50	—
Aug 01	Spartans - Staubitz @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud	0–0	50/50	—
Aug 01	Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud	0–0	50/50	—
Aug 01	Shamrocks - Cooke @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko	0–0	50/50	—