The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS
1 Spartans - Staubitz 35 31 4 0 284 87 62
2 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 35 23 8 4 192 116 50
3 Little Stars - Laverty 36 18 14 4 187 177 40
4 Providence (South) - Ciresi 37 17 19 1 259 224 35
5 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 35 15 19 1 202 184 31
6 Bay State Waves 2017 UG 35 10 18 7 130 185 27
7 IHC East 17 - Bonito 12 12 0 0 93 23 24
8 Shamrocks - Cooke 35 9 23 3 103 205 21
9 Manchester Inferno - Michaud 34 7 27 0 134 261 14
10 Young Guns - Kent 1 0 1 0 7 9 0
11 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 1 0 1 0 2 10 0
12 Boch Blazers - Busch 2 0 2 0 8 18 0
13 Northern Twisters - Weiand 2 0 2 0 0 24 0
14 MC Selects - Gajda 2 0 2 0 5 41 0
15 Spartans - Savage 2 0 2 0 1 43 0

Game Log

Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Feb 22 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 6–4
10.9%
82.4%
3.19 UPSET
Feb 22 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Little Stars - Laverty 3–2
69.5%
23.8%
0.52
Feb 22 Spartans - Staubitz @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 6–0
90.8%
2.5%
0.14
Feb 21 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 13–3
79.0%
14.8%
0.34
Feb 21 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Shamrocks - Cooke 3–3
68.8%
25.1%
4.02 UPSET
Feb 21 Little Stars - Laverty @ Spartans - Staubitz 2–7
6.6%
87.2%
0.20
Feb 15 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Spartans - Staubitz 0–6
9.5%
84.2%
0.25
Feb 15 Little Stars - Laverty @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 7–6
48.2%
45.4%
1.05
Feb 15 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Spartans - Staubitz 4–12
9.5%
84.2%
0.25
Feb 15 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 9–2
87.0%
6.6%
0.20
Feb 14 Little Stars - Laverty @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 1–11
55.3%
39.0%
1.36
Feb 14 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Shamrocks - Cooke 3–3
89.6%
4.7%
4.13 UPSET
Feb 08 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Shamrocks - Cooke 10–3
50.3%
43.8%
0.99
Feb 08 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Spartans - Staubitz 3–6
17.4%
76.7%
0.38
Feb 08 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Little Stars - Laverty 4–8
52.7%
41.4%
1.27
Feb 08 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 5–3
27.8%
66.3%
1.84
Feb 07 Spartans - Staubitz @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 9–1
92.6%
1.4%
0.11
Feb 07 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 8–7
66.5%
27.4%
0.59
Feb 07 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Shamrocks - Cooke 10–1
85.9%
8.0%
0.22
Feb 07 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Shamrocks - Cooke 2–7
85.9%
8.0%
3.64 UPSET
Feb 01 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Spartans - Staubitz 2–9
1.2%
92.5%
0.11
Feb 01 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Little Stars - Laverty 5–3
66.1%
27.6%
0.60
Feb 01 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 5–12
63.0%
30.7%
1.70
Feb 01 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 5–2
60.5%
33.3%
0.73
Jan 31 Spartans - Staubitz @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 5–4
87.7%
5.9%
0.19
Jan 31 Little Stars - Laverty @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 5–3
80.6%
13.0%
0.31
Jan 31 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 6–1
57.1%
36.5%
0.81
Jan 31 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 3–4
29.1%
64.5%
0.63
Jan 25 Little Stars - Laverty @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 6–6
74.5%
19.8%
4.14 UPSET
Jan 24 Little Stars - Laverty @ Spartans - Staubitz 1–7
10.7%
83.4%
0.26
Jan 24 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 8–6
83.8%
10.4%
0.26
Jan 24 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 2–5
23.7%
70.4%
0.51
Jan 24 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 9–4
83.8%
10.4%
0.26
Jan 18 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 2–2
84.0%
10.9%
4.29 UPSET
Jan 18 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 9–8
62.2%
32.6%
0.68
Jan 17 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 10–2
55.3%
39.5%
0.86
Jan 17 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 4–7
27.8%
66.9%
0.58
Jan 17 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 8–5
39.5%
55.3%
1.34
Jan 11 Spartans - Staubitz @ Little Stars - Laverty 7–3
82.9%
11.6%
0.27
Jan 11 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 4–2
29.2%
65.4%
1.78
Jan 11 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 1–8
70.0%
24.5%
2.03
Jan 11 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 0–9
8.7%
85.8%
0.22
Jan 10 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Little Stars - Laverty 4–4
59.7%
35.6%
4.41
Jan 10 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 8–3
53.3%
42.0%
0.91
Jan 10 Little Stars - Laverty @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 6–2
35.6%
59.7%
1.49
Jan 10 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Shamrocks - Cooke 8–1
88.3%
7.0%
0.18
Jan 04 Spartans - Staubitz @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 5–3
77.7%
17.4%
0.36
Jan 04 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Shamrocks - Cooke 8–0
73.2%
21.9%
0.45
Jan 04 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 3–4
11.8%
83.3%
0.26
Jan 03 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 1–5
45.6%
49.3%
1.02
Jan 03 Little Stars - Laverty @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 3–1
36.2%
58.7%
1.46
Jan 03 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 8–2
11.0%
83.8%
3.18 UPSET
Jan 03 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 11–4
11.0%
83.8%
3.18 UPSET
Jan 03 Spartans - Staubitz @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 9–3
92.4%
2.5%
0.11
Dec 27 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 3–2
37.3%
57.5%
1.42
Dec 27 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Little Stars - Laverty 7–8
12.0%
82.8%
0.27
Dec 21 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Little Stars - Laverty 5–7
17.7%
76.9%
0.38
Dec 21 Spartans - Staubitz @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 14–1
63.2%
31.4%
0.66
Dec 21 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 9–10
29.0%
65.6%
0.61
Dec 21 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 1–3
8.9%
85.7%
0.22
Dec 20 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 6–3
87.4%
6.9%
0.19
Dec 20 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 3–6
9.0%
85.3%
0.23
Dec 20 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Spartans - Staubitz 2–6
5.3%
89.1%
0.17
Dec 20 Little Stars - Laverty @ Shamrocks - Cooke 7–3
79.5%
14.8%
0.33
Dec 14 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 3–6
7.3%
86.9%
0.20
Dec 14 Spartans - Staubitz @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 5–2
74.1%
20.1%
0.43
Dec 13 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 1–10
70.6%
23.4%
2.09
Dec 13 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Spartans - Staubitz 2–19
3.2%
90.9%
0.14
Dec 07 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Spartans - Staubitz 2–8
4.2%
89.6%
0.16
Dec 07 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 1–4
78.3%
15.5%
2.69 UPSET
Dec 07 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 5–3
2.5%
91.2%
5.30 UPSET
Dec 07 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Little Stars - Laverty 10–5
10.6%
83.1%
3.23 UPSET
Dec 06 Little Stars - Laverty @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 1–10
48.2%
45.4%
1.14
Dec 06 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Shamrocks - Cooke 5–4
45.0%
48.6%
1.15
Nov 30 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 12–5
0.4%
92.8%
7.88 UPSET
Nov 30 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 8–5
0.4%
92.8%
7.88 UPSET
Nov 30 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 6–5
79.5%
13.7%
0.33
Nov 30 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 3–4
27.4%
65.8%
0.60
Nov 29 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 12–4
88.6%
4.5%
0.18
Nov 29 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Little Stars - Laverty 4–6
7.1%
86.0%
0.22
Nov 23 Spartans - Staubitz @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 7–2
88.3%
4.5%
0.18
Nov 23 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 10–4
0.3%
92.4%
8.22 UPSET
Nov 23 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Little Stars - Laverty 4–7
3.1%
89.6%
0.16
Nov 22 Spartans - Staubitz @ Shamrocks - Cooke 8–1
91.2%
1.4%
0.13
Nov 16 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Spartans - Staubitz 2–8
4.1%
88.2%
0.18
Nov 16 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Little Stars - Laverty 5–9
89.6%
2.7%
5.19 UPSET
Nov 16 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Shamrocks - Cooke 1–6
43.3%
49.0%
1.03
Nov 15 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 1–12
21.7%
70.3%
0.51
Nov 15 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Shamrocks - Cooke 7–2
72.3%
19.8%
0.47
Nov 09 Spartans - Staubitz @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 7–0
69.0%
22.8%
0.54
Nov 09 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Little Stars - Laverty 4–9
14.2%
77.6%
0.37
Nov 08 Spartans - Staubitz @ Little Stars - Laverty 6–2
68.6%
23.0%
0.54
Nov 08 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 3–4
12.2%
79.3%
0.33
Nov 02 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 0–14 50/50 —
Nov 02 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Spartans - Staubitz 2–14
2.2%
88.9%
0.17
Nov 02 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Little Stars - Laverty 4–3
11.0%
80.1%
3.19 UPSET
Nov 01 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Little Stars - Laverty 3–8
5.3%
85.1%
0.23
Nov 01 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ MC Selects - Gajda 19–3 50/50 —
Nov 01 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 2–9
33.7%
56.7%
0.82
Nov 01 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Spartans - Staubitz 6–2 50/50 —
Oct 26 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Shamrocks - Cooke 5–2 50/50 —
Oct 26 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Little Stars - Laverty 8–6
9.0%
81.0%
3.48 UPSET
Oct 25 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Shamrocks - Cooke 1–2
64.0%
25.1%
1.99
Oct 25 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 2–10 50/50 —
Oct 25 Spartans - Staubitz @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 9–2
87.3%
1.9%
0.20
Oct 25 Little Stars - Laverty @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 5–6 50/50 —
Oct 19 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 0–9
6.9%
84.0%
0.25
Oct 19 Little Stars - Laverty @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 3–3
86.4%
4.6%
3.46 UPSET
Oct 18 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 0–10 50/50 —
Oct 18 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 3–3
6.0%
88.9%
4.29 UPSET
Oct 18 Spartans - Staubitz @ Shamrocks - Cooke 11–2
95.2%
2.2%
0.07
Oct 18 Little Stars - Laverty @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 9–1
96.7%
1.5%
0.05
Oct 12 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 9–14
8.4%
84.6%
0.24
Oct 11 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 4–7
78.5%
12.6%
2.98 UPSET
Oct 11 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 3–6 50/50 —
Oct 05 Spartans - Staubitz @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 10–6
97.2%
1.2%
0.04
Oct 05 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 6–3 50/50 —
Oct 04 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 5–5
55.4%
30.3%
2.81 UPSET
Oct 04 Spartans - Savage @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 0–20 50/50 —
Oct 04 Little Stars - Laverty @ Spartans - Staubitz 9–4
6.2%
88.8%
4.00 UPSET
Oct 04 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Shamrocks - Cooke 7–0 50/50 —
Sep 28 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 4–3
59.4%
27.9%
0.75
Sep 28 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 6–1
75.7%
14.8%
0.40
Sep 28 Spartans - Staubitz @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 4–7 50/50 —
Sep 27 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 2–11 50/50 —
Sep 27 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 4–3
45.5%
40.4%
1.14
Sep 27 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 9–2 50/50 —
Sep 21 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 1–8
1.5%
96.9%
0.05
Sep 21 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Spartans - Staubitz 1–11
0.7%
98.1%
0.03
Sep 21 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Little Stars - Laverty 2–10
12.5%
78.9%
0.34
Sep 21 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 0–10 50/50 —
Sep 20 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Little Stars - Laverty 2–2
13.9%
69.1% ⚠
2.56 UPSET
Sep 20 Spartans - Savage @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 1–23 50/50 —
Sep 20 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Spartans - Staubitz 1–10
0.0%
83.0% ⚠
0.27
Sep 20 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 3–3
82.6%
0.4% ⚠
2.56 UPSET
Sep 14 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Spartans - Staubitz 3–2
0.1%
82.9% ⚠
10.74 UPSET
Sep 14 MC Selects - Gajda @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 2–22 50/50 —
Sep 14 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 1–14 50/50 —
Sep 14 Little Stars - Laverty @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 4–2 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Spartans - Staubitz 2–8 50/50 —
Sep 13 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 2–7 50/50 —
Sep 13 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Boch Blazers - Busch 7–6 50/50 —
Sep 13 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Little Stars - Laverty 8–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Shamrocks - Cooke 6–3 50/50 —
Sep 07 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 6–3 50/50 —
Sep 07 Spartans - Staubitz @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 13–1 50/50 —
Sep 07 Little Stars - Laverty @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 6–7 50/50 —
Sep 06 Little Stars - Laverty @ Shamrocks - Cooke 9–3 50/50 —
Sep 06 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Young Guns - Kent 9–7 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 8–5 50/50 —
Sep 06 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Spartans - Staubitz 3–10 50/50 —
Sep 06 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 9–0 50/50 —