The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Northern Twisters - Dulong 11 11 0 0 128 51 22 —
2 Providence 2018 South - Szabo 9 8 1 0 72 36 16 —
3 Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest 9 7 1 1 61 25 15 —
4 Providence 2018 North - Merola 10 3 6 1 48 55 7 —
5 Manchester Inferno- Mills 12 2 10 0 33 90 4 —
6 Seacoast Spartans - Reiss 7 1 6 0 35 64 2 —
7 Team Boch - Keefe 8 0 8 0 29 85 0 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Northern Twisters - Dulong 1 (1–2) 88% 64 (58–68)
2 Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest 2 (2–3) 6% 53 (47–59)
3 Providence 2018 South - Szabo 3 (2–3) 6% 52 (46–58)
4 Providence 2018 North - Merola 4 (4–5) <1% 36 (29–42)
5 Seacoast Spartans - Reiss 5 (4–6) <1% 25 (17–32)
6 Team Boch - Keefe 6 (6–7) <1% 11 (5–18)
7 Manchester Inferno- Mills 6 (6–7) <1% 11 (6–17)
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 03 Team Boch - Keefe @ Seacoast Spartans - Reiss Upcoming 50/50 —
Sep 05 Northern Twisters - Dulong @ Manchester Inferno- Mills 11–3 50/50 —
Sep 12 Providence 2018 South - Szabo @ Providence 2018 North - Merola 8–6 50/50 —
Sep 12 Northern Twisters - Dulong @ Seacoast Spartans - Reiss 14–2 50/50 —
Sep 13 Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest @ Manchester Inferno- Mills 6–2 50/50 —
Sep 13 Northern Twisters - Dulong @ Providence 2018 North - Merola 15–8 50/50 —
Sep 19 Providence 2018 North - Merola @ Team Boch - Keefe 7–6 50/50 —
Sep 19 Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest @ Northern Twisters - Dulong 2–6 50/50 —
Sep 19 Seacoast Spartans - Reiss @ Manchester Inferno- Mills 8–6 50/50 —
Sep 20 Manchester Inferno- Mills @ Providence 2018 South - Szabo 2–6 50/50 —
Sep 20 Manchester Inferno- Mills @ Providence 2018 North - Merola 1–9
13% 70%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.52
Sep 20 Seacoast Spartans - Reiss @ Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest 4–9 50/50 —
Sep 20 Northern Twisters - Dulong @ Team Boch - Keefe 17–8 50/50 —
Sep 26 Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest @ Team Boch - Keefe 9–3 50/50 —
Sep 26 Providence 2018 South - Szabo @ Northern Twisters - Dulong 4–8 50/50 —
Sep 27 Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest @ Providence 2018 North - Merola 0–0
60% 28%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
3.17 UPSET
Oct 03 Seacoast Spartans - Reiss @ Northern Twisters - Dulong 2–10
1% 98%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.03
Oct 03 Providence 2018 South - Szabo @ Team Boch - Keefe 14–1
72% 19%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.47
Oct 04 Providence 2018 South - Szabo @ Seacoast Spartans - Reiss 9–7
88% 7%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.19
Oct 04 Northern Twisters - Dulong @ Team Boch - Keefe 11–3
98% 1%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.02
Oct 10 Providence 2018 South - Szabo @ Manchester Inferno- Mills 9–2
90% 5%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.15
Oct 10 Northern Twisters - Dulong @ Team Boch - Keefe 14–3
98% 1%
0.03
Oct 10 Providence 2018 North - Merola @ Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest 2–6
26% 62%
0.70
Oct 10 Providence 2018 South - Szabo @ Manchester Inferno- Mills 13–4
92% 4%
0.12
Oct 17 Seacoast Spartans - Reiss @ Providence 2018 South - Szabo 5–6
6% 90%
0.15
Oct 17 Providence 2018 North - Merola @ Northern Twisters - Dulong 9–12
4% 92%
0.12
Oct 17 Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest @ Manchester Inferno- Mills 13–3
88% 6%
0.18
Oct 17 Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest @ Manchester Inferno- Mills 8–1
93% 3%
0.10
Oct 18 Seacoast Spartans - Reiss @ Northern Twisters - Dulong 7–10
2% 96%
0.06
Oct 18 Team Boch - Keefe @ Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest 4–8
3% 94%
0.08
Oct 24 Team Boch - Keefe @ Manchester Inferno- Mills 1–5
58% 31%
1.67
Oct 24 Providence 2018 South - Szabo @ Providence 2018 North - Merola 3–1
64% 26%
0.64
Oct 24 Seacoast Spartans - Reiss @ Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest Upcoming
11% 82%
—
Oct 25 Providence 2018 North - Merola @ Manchester Inferno- Mills 0–2
83% 10%
—
Oct 25 Providence 2018 North - Merola @ Manchester Inferno- Mills 6–2
83% 10%
—
Oct 31 Providence 2018 North - Merola @ Seacoast Spartans - Reiss Upcoming
54% 35%
—
Nov 01 Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest @ Providence 2018 South - Szabo Upcoming
43% 43%
—
Nov 01 Northern Twisters - Dulong @ Providence 2018 North - Merola Upcoming
83% 11%
—
Nov 01 Seacoast Spartans - Reiss @ Manchester Inferno- Mills Upcoming
76% 16%
—
Nov 07 Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest @ Seacoast Spartans - Reiss Upcoming
77% 14%
—
Nov 08 Team Boch - Keefe @ Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest Upcoming
2% 95%
—
Nov 08 Seacoast Spartans - Reiss @ Providence 2018 North - Merola Upcoming
29% 61%
—
Nov 14 Manchester Inferno- Mills @ Team Boch - Keefe Upcoming
36% 52%
—
Nov 14 Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest @ Providence 2018 South - Szabo Upcoming
43% 43%
—
Nov 14 Providence 2018 North - Merola @ Northern Twisters - Dulong Upcoming
8% 87%
—
Nov 15 Northern Twisters - Dulong @ Providence 2018 South - Szabo Upcoming
58% 32%
—
Nov 15 Team Boch - Keefe @ Seacoast Spartans - Reiss Upcoming
14% 79%
—
Nov 15 Providence 2018 North - Merola @ Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest Upcoming
18% 72%
—
Nov 21 Manchester Inferno- Mills @ Northern Twisters - Dulong Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Nov 21 Providence 2018 North - Merola @ Seacoast Spartans - Reiss Upcoming
54% 35%
—
Nov 21 Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest @ Team Boch - Keefe Upcoming
93% 4%
—
Nov 22 Manchester Inferno- Mills @ Seacoast Spartans - Reiss Upcoming
12% 81%
—
Nov 22 Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest @ Providence 2018 North - Merola Upcoming
67% 22%
—
Nov 28 Team Boch - Keefe @ Northern Twisters - Dulong Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Nov 28 Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest @ Seacoast Spartans - Reiss Upcoming
77% 14%
—
Nov 29 Providence 2018 South - Szabo @ Seacoast Spartans - Reiss Upcoming
78% 14%
—
Nov 29 Team Boch - Keefe @ Manchester Inferno- Mills Upcoming
45% 42%
—
Nov 29 Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest @ Northern Twisters - Dulong Upcoming
29% 60%
—
Dec 05 Providence 2018 South - Szabo @ Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest Upcoming
37% 49%
—
Dec 05 Manchester Inferno- Mills @ Northern Twisters - Dulong Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Dec 05 Providence 2018 North - Merola @ Team Boch - Keefe Upcoming
82% 12%
—
Dec 06 Manchester Inferno- Mills @ Providence 2018 South - Szabo Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Dec 06 Manchester Inferno- Mills @ Providence 2018 North - Merola Upcoming
8% 87%
—
Dec 06 Seacoast Spartans - Reiss @ Team Boch - Keefe Upcoming
73% 18%
—
Dec 12 Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest @ Northern Twisters - Dulong Upcoming
29% 60%
—
Dec 12 Seacoast Spartans - Reiss @ Manchester Inferno- Mills Upcoming
76% 16%
—
Dec 12 Providence 2018 South - Szabo @ Team Boch - Keefe Upcoming
94% 3%
—
Dec 13 Providence 2018 North - Merola @ Seacoast Spartans - Reiss Upcoming
54% 35%
—
Dec 13 Northern Twisters - Dulong @ Providence 2018 South - Szabo Upcoming
58% 32%
—
Dec 13 Manchester Inferno- Mills @ Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest Upcoming
2% 95%
—
Dec 18 Providence 2018 North - Merola @ Providence 2018 South - Szabo Upcoming
18% 72%
—
Dec 19 Manchester Inferno- Mills @ Northern Twisters - Dulong Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Dec 19 Team Boch - Keefe @ Providence 2018 North - Merola Upcoming
8% 86%
—
Dec 19 Seacoast Spartans - Reiss @ Providence 2018 South - Szabo Upcoming
11% 83%
—
Dec 20 Seacoast Spartans - Reiss @ Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest Upcoming
11% 82%
—
Dec 20 Team Boch - Keefe @ Providence 2018 South - Szabo Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Dec 26 Providence 2018 North - Merola @ Team Boch - Keefe Upcoming
82% 12%
—
Dec 26 Northern Twisters - Dulong @ Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest Upcoming
53% 35%
—
Dec 27 Manchester Inferno- Mills @ Team Boch - Keefe Upcoming
36% 52%
—
Dec 27 Northern Twisters - Dulong @ Providence 2018 North - Merola Upcoming
83% 11%
—
Jan 02 Providence 2018 North - Merola @ Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest Upcoming
18% 72%
—
Jan 02 Manchester Inferno- Mills @ Seacoast Spartans - Reiss Upcoming
12% 81%
—
Jan 02 Providence 2018 South - Szabo @ Team Boch - Keefe Upcoming
94% 3%
—
Jan 03 Northern Twisters - Dulong @ Seacoast Spartans - Reiss Upcoming
91% 6%
—
Jan 03 Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest @ Providence 2018 South - Szabo Upcoming
43% 43%
—
Jan 03 Team Boch - Keefe @ Providence 2018 North - Merola Upcoming
8% 86%
—
Jan 09 Providence 2018 South - Szabo @ Northern Twisters - Dulong Upcoming
25% 65%
—
Jan 09 Team Boch - Keefe @ Seacoast Spartans - Reiss Upcoming
14% 79%
—
Jan 10 Team Boch - Keefe @ Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest Upcoming
2% 95%
—
Jan 10 Providence 2018 South - Szabo @ Seacoast Spartans - Reiss Upcoming
78% 14%
—
Jan 16 Manchester Inferno- Mills @ Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest Upcoming
2% 95%
—
Jan 17 Manchester Inferno- Mills @ Seacoast Spartans - Reiss Upcoming
12% 81%
—
Jan 23 Providence 2018 South - Szabo @ Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest Upcoming
37% 49%
—
Jan 23 Providence 2018 North - Merola @ Northern Twisters - Dulong Upcoming
8% 87%
—
Jan 23 Manchester Inferno- Mills @ Team Boch - Keefe Upcoming
36% 52%
—
Jan 24 Northern Twisters - Dulong @ Seacoast Spartans - Reiss Upcoming
91% 6%
—
Jan 24 Providence 2018 South - Szabo @ Providence 2018 North - Merola Upcoming
66% 23%
—
Jan 30 Seacoast Spartans - Reiss @ Team Boch - Keefe Upcoming
73% 18%
—
Jan 30 Manchester Inferno- Mills @ Providence 2018 North - Merola Upcoming
8% 87%
—
Jan 30 Manchester Inferno- Mills @ Providence 2018 South - Szabo Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Jan 31 Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest @ Seacoast Spartans - Reiss Upcoming
77% 14%
—
Jan 31 Northern Twisters - Dulong @ Manchester Inferno- Mills Upcoming
99% 1%
—
Jan 31 Team Boch - Keefe @ Providence 2018 South - Szabo Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Feb 05 Providence 2018 North - Merola @ Providence 2018 South - Szabo Upcoming
18% 72%
—
Feb 06 Northern Twisters - Dulong @ Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest Upcoming
53% 35%
—
Feb 06 Providence 2018 North - Merola @ Manchester Inferno- Mills Upcoming
83% 10%
—
Feb 06 Seacoast Spartans - Reiss @ Providence 2018 South - Szabo Upcoming
11% 83%
—
Feb 07 Providence 2018 South - Szabo @ Northern Twisters - Dulong Upcoming
25% 65%
—
Feb 07 Seacoast Spartans - Reiss @ Providence 2018 North - Merola Upcoming
29% 61%
—
Feb 07 Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest @ Team Boch - Keefe Upcoming
93% 4%
—
Feb 13 Seacoast Spartans - Reiss @ Northern Twisters - Dulong Upcoming
4% 94%
—
Feb 13 Team Boch - Keefe @ Manchester Inferno- Mills Upcoming
45% 42%
—
Feb 14 Team Boch - Keefe @ Northern Twisters - Dulong Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Feb 19 Providence 2018 North - Merola @ Providence 2018 South - Szabo Upcoming
18% 72%
—
Feb 20 Northern Twisters - Dulong @ Manchester Inferno- Mills Upcoming
99% 1%
—
Feb 20 Team Boch - Keefe @ Providence 2018 North - Merola Upcoming
8% 86%
—
Feb 20 Providence 2018 South - Szabo @ Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest Upcoming
37% 49%
—
Feb 21 Team Boch - Keefe @ Providence 2018 South - Szabo Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Feb 21 Northern Twisters - Dulong @ Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest Upcoming
53% 35%
—
Feb 21 Seacoast Spartans - Reiss @ Providence 2018 North - Merola Upcoming
29% 61%
—
Feb 27 Team Boch - Keefe @ Northern Twisters - Dulong Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Feb 27 Providence 2018 South - Szabo @ Manchester Inferno- Mills Upcoming
94% 3%
—
Feb 27 Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest @ Providence 2018 North - Merola Upcoming
67% 22%
—
Feb 28 Manchester Inferno- Mills @ Minuteman Sparks Gilchrest Upcoming
2% 95%
—
Feb 28 Northern Twisters - Dulong @ Providence 2018 South - Szabo Upcoming
58% 32%
—
Feb 28 Seacoast Spartans - Reiss @ Team Boch - Keefe Upcoming
73% 18%
—