The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Bulldogs Hockey Club 12 9 3 0 61 39 18 —
2 Boston Jr Eagles 10 7 1 2 38 17 16 —
3 South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz 11 7 3 1 40 20 15 —
4 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 11 6 3 2 47 40 14 —
5 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum 11 3 3 5 33 28 11 —
6 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 8 4 4 0 35 33 8 —
7 Top Gun - Considine 9 3 5 1 25 35 7 —
8 Boston Jr Terriers White 11 2 7 2 34 46 6 —
9 IHC West 2016 - Enwright 9 1 7 1 14 53 3 —
10 Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 8 1 7 0 17 33 2 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Boston Jr Eagles 1 (1–3) 55% 56 (50–62)
2 Bulldogs Hockey Club 2 (1–3) 39% 54 (49–59)
3 South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz 3 (2–5) 5% 48 (40–54)
4 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 4 (3–6) 1% 41 (32–48)
5 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 5 (3–7) <1% 37 (29–44)
6 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum 5 (4–7) <1% 37 (30–44)
7 Top Gun - Considine 7 (5–9) <1% 29 (22–38)
8 Boston Jr Terriers White 8 (6–9) <1% 25 (18–32)
9 Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 8 (7–9) <1% 24 (16–31)
10 IHC West 2016 - Enwright 10 (9–10) <1% 10 (5–17)
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Sep 12 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–7 50/50 —
Sep 12 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 5–2 50/50 —
Sep 12 Top Gun - Considine @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 12 South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz @ Boston Jr Terriers White 5–4 50/50 —
Sep 13 South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 4–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Top Gun - Considine @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 1–4 50/50 —
Sep 13 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–0 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers White @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 2–5 50/50 —
Sep 19 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Top Gun - Considine 5–2 50/50 —
Sep 19 South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz @ IHC West 2016 - Enwright 1–2 50/50 —
Sep 19 Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–2 50/50 —
Sep 19 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ Boston Jr Terriers White 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 20 IHC West 2016 - Enwright @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum 3–9 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boston Jr Terriers White @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 4–6 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 4–7
42% 41%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.28
Sep 26 Boston Jr Terriers White @ Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 6–2 50/50 —
Sep 26 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum 4–4 50/50 —
Sep 26 South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 2–3 Provisional
30% 55%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.86
Sep 27 Top Gun - Considine @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 2–8
17% 71%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.50
Sep 27 Boston Jr Terriers White @ IHC West 2016 - Enwright 6–0 50/50 —
Sep 27 Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 @ South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz 3–2
21% 63%
2.24
Sep 27 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 8–5 50/50 —
Oct 03 South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–0
34% 47%
2.43
Oct 03 IHC West 2016 - Enwright @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 2–9
4% 92%
0.13
Oct 03 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers White 6–1
44% 43%
1.20
Oct 03 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 @ Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 6–3
45% 40%
1.17
Oct 03 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ Top Gun - Considine 2–4
65% 20%
2.33
Oct 04 Boston Jr Terriers White @ South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz 2–5
41% 41%
1.30
Oct 04 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 4–8 Provisional
41% 46%
1.12
Oct 04 Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum 3–4
23% 62%
0.69
Oct 04 Boston Jr Eagles @ IHC West 2016 - Enwright 7–1
77% 12%
0.38
Oct 10 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–1
29% 53%
0.92
Oct 10 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 @ IHC West 2016 - Enwright 4–2
93% 3%
0.10
Oct 10 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 @ Top Gun - Considine 3–4
56% 30%
1.72
Oct 11 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 5–2
23% 66%
2.13
Oct 11 IHC West 2016 - Enwright @ Boston Jr Terriers White 3–3
10% 82%
3.58 UPSET
Oct 11 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 6–3
29% 56%
1.79
Oct 17 Top Gun - Considine @ IHC West 2016 - Enwright 7–1
65% 20%
0.61
Oct 17 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 0–0
34% 51%
2.69 UPSET
Oct 17 Boston Jr Eagles @ Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 4–0
70% 16%
0.52
Oct 17 Boston Jr Terriers White @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 1–4
11% 82%
0.29
Oct 17 South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 4–2
37% 47%
1.44
Oct 18 South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz @ Top Gun - Considine 2–0
48% 33%
1.06
Oct 18 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 7–4
18% 72%
2.48
Oct 18 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers White 7–2
69% 17%
0.53
Oct 24 Boston Jr Terriers White @ Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 Upcoming
44% 40%
—
Oct 24 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 @ South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz 1–8
36% 45%
1.14
Oct 24 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 1–5
23% 63%
0.67
Oct 25 Top Gun - Considine @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum 3–8
34% 47%
1.10
Oct 25 Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 3–4
24% 62%
0.68
Oct 25 IHC West 2016 - Enwright @ South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz 0–7
4% 90%
—
Oct 31 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
21% 65%
—
Oct 31 Top Gun - Considine @ Boston Jr Terriers White Upcoming
41% 43%
—
Nov 01 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum Upcoming
60% 22%
—
Nov 01 Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 @ South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz Upcoming
14% 71%
—
Nov 07 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 @ Boston Jr Terriers White Upcoming
53% 33%
—
Nov 07 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 Upcoming
56% 26%
—
Nov 07 Top Gun - Considine @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
11% 78%
—
Nov 08 Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
9% 80%
—
Nov 08 Top Gun - Considine @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 Upcoming
29% 57%
—
Nov 14 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 @ Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 Upcoming
56% 29%
—
Nov 14 IHC West 2016 - Enwright @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
2% 95%
—
Nov 14 Boston Jr Terriers White @ Top Gun - Considine Upcoming
38% 46%
—
Nov 14 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum Upcoming
59% 26%
—
Nov 15 IHC West 2016 - Enwright @ South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz Upcoming
4% 90%
—
Nov 15 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 Upcoming
68% 22%
—
Nov 15 Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 @ Boston Jr Terriers White Upcoming
36% 48%
—
Nov 21 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 Upcoming
51% 36%
—
Nov 21 IHC West 2016 - Enwright @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum Upcoming
7% 85%
—
Nov 21 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
33% 51%
—
Nov 21 Top Gun - Considine @ Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 Upcoming
44% 39%
—
Nov 21 South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz @ Boston Jr Terriers White Upcoming
66% 19%
—
Nov 22 Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
9% 83%
—
Nov 22 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz Upcoming
26% 54%
—
Nov 22 IHC West 2016 - Enwright @ Top Gun - Considine Upcoming
13% 77%
—
Nov 22 Boston Jr Eagles @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 Upcoming
68% 19%
—
Nov 22 Boston Jr Terriers White @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 Upcoming
20% 69%
—
Nov 28 IHC West 2016 - Enwright @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
1% 97%
—
Nov 28 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum Upcoming
35% 48%
—
Nov 28 Top Gun - Considine @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 Upcoming
21% 67%
—
Nov 29 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 @ IHC West 2016 - Enwright Upcoming
90% 5%
—
Nov 29 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum Upcoming
59% 26%
—
Nov 29 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 @ Top Gun - Considine Upcoming
51% 34%
—
Dec 05 IHC West 2016 - Enwright @ Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 Upcoming
16% 72%
—
Dec 05 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum Upcoming
44% 40%
—
Dec 05 Top Gun - Considine @ South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz Upcoming
17% 68%
—
Dec 05 Top Gun - Considine @ South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz Upcoming
17% 68%
—
Dec 06 Boston Jr Terriers White @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 Upcoming
20% 69%
—
Dec 06 Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 @ Top Gun - Considine Upcoming
34% 49%
—
Dec 06 South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz @ IHC West 2016 - Enwright Upcoming
88% 5%
—
Dec 12 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz Upcoming
26% 54%
—
Dec 12 Boston Jr Terriers White @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
10% 80%
—
Dec 12 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 @ Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 Upcoming
56% 29%
—
Dec 12 Top Gun - Considine @ IHC West 2016 - Enwright Upcoming
73% 16%
—
Dec 13 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum Upcoming
60% 22%
—
Dec 13 South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 Upcoming
57% 27%
—
Dec 13 IHC West 2016 - Enwright @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
1% 97%
—
Dec 13 Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 Upcoming
18% 71%
—
Dec 19 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
15% 72%
—
Dec 19 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 Upcoming
56% 26%
—
Dec 19 IHC West 2016 - Enwright @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 Upcoming
4% 92%
—
Dec 19 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz Upcoming
44% 40%
—
Dec 20 Boston Jr Terriers White @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum Upcoming
25% 59%
—
Dec 20 Top Gun - Considine @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
11% 80%
—
Dec 20 Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 @ IHC West 2016 - Enwright Upcoming
67% 19%
—
Dec 20 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz Upcoming
46% 33%
—
Dec 26 IHC West 2016 - Enwright @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
2% 95%
—
Dec 26 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 @ Top Gun - Considine Upcoming
51% 34%
—
Dec 27 South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum Upcoming
49% 30%
—
Dec 27 Boston Jr Terriers White @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
10% 82%
—
Jan 02 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ IHC West 2016 - Enwright Upcoming
82% 9%
—
Jan 02 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 @ South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz Upcoming
23% 62%
—
Jan 02 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 @ Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 Upcoming
66% 22%
—
Jan 02 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers White Upcoming
76% 12%
—
Jan 03 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 @ South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz Upcoming
30% 53%
—
Jan 03 Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
9% 83%
—
Jan 03 IHC West 2016 - Enwright @ Boston Jr Terriers White Upcoming
13% 77%
—
Jan 03 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 Upcoming
34% 50%
—
Jan 09 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers White Upcoming
78% 13%
—
Jan 09 Boston Jr Eagles @ IHC West 2016 - Enwright Upcoming
93% 2%
—
Jan 09 Top Gun - Considine @ Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 Upcoming
44% 39%
—
Jan 09 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 Upcoming
30% 57%
—
Jan 10 IHC West 2016 - Enwright @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 Upcoming
6% 87%
—
Jan 10 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 Upcoming
60% 26%
—
Jan 10 Boston Jr Terriers White @ Top Gun - Considine Upcoming
38% 46%
—
Jan 17 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 Upcoming
34% 50%
—
Jan 23 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun - Considine Upcoming
74% 14%
—
Jan 23 IHC West 2016 - Enwright @ Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 Upcoming
16% 72%
—
Jan 23 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun - Considine Upcoming
74% 14%
—
Jan 23 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 @ Boston Jr Terriers White Upcoming
64% 24%
—
Jan 23 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
17% 73%
—
Jan 23 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 @ South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz Upcoming
30% 53%
—
Jan 24 South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 Upcoming
57% 27%
—
Jan 24 Boston Jr Terriers White @ IHC West 2016 - Enwright Upcoming
73% 16%
—
Jan 24 Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum Upcoming
23% 61%
—
Jan 24 Top Gun - Considine @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
11% 80%
—
Jan 24 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 Upcoming
60% 26%
—
Jan 30 South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz @ Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 Upcoming
67% 17%
—
Jan 30 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ Boston Jr Terriers White Upcoming
54% 29%
—
Jan 30 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
25% 64%
—
Jan 30 IHC West 2016 - Enwright @ Top Gun - Considine Upcoming
13% 77%
—
Jan 30 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
15% 72%
—
Jan 31 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz Upcoming
46% 33%
—
Jan 31 Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 Upcoming
18% 71%
—
Jan 31 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ Top Gun - Considine Upcoming
52% 30%
—
Jan 31 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ IHC West 2016 - Enwright Upcoming
96% 2%
—
Feb 06 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 @ Boston Jr Terriers White Upcoming
53% 33%
—
Feb 06 Boston Jr Eagles @ Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 Upcoming
76% 11%
—
Feb 06 IHC West 2016 - Enwright @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 Upcoming
4% 92%
—
Feb 06 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz Upcoming
44% 40%
—
Feb 07 Boston Jr Terriers White @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
10% 80%
—
Feb 07 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 Upcoming
43% 40%
—
Feb 07 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Top Gun - Considine Upcoming
75% 15%
—
Feb 07 South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 Upcoming
48% 35%
—
Feb 13 South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
29% 50%
—
Feb 13 Top Gun - Considine @ Boston Jr Terriers White Upcoming
41% 43%
—
Feb 13 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 Upcoming
79% 12%
—
Feb 13 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum Upcoming
44% 40%
—
Feb 13 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 @ IHC West 2016 - Enwright Upcoming
84% 9%
—
Feb 14 Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 Upcoming
25% 61%
—
Feb 14 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
22% 65%
—
Feb 14 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 @ IHC West 2016 - Enwright Upcoming
90% 5%
—
Feb 20 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 @ Boston Jr Terriers White Upcoming
64% 24%
—
Feb 20 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 Upcoming
68% 22%
—
Feb 20 South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz @ Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 Upcoming
67% 17%
—
Feb 20 Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum @ IHC West 2016 - Enwright Upcoming
82% 9%
—
Feb 20 Top Gun - Considine @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
11% 78%
—
Feb 21 Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 @ IHC West 2016 - Enwright Upcoming
67% 19%
—
Feb 21 Boston Jr Terriers White @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum Upcoming
25% 59%
—
Feb 21 South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz @ Top Gun - Considine Upcoming
64% 20%
—
Feb 21 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 Upcoming
58% 30%
—
Feb 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 Upcoming
68% 19%
—
Feb 27 Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 @ Boston Jr Terriers White Upcoming
36% 48%
—
Feb 27 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ IHC West 2016 - Enwright Upcoming
96% 2%
—
Feb 27 South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Platinum Upcoming
49% 30%
—
Feb 27 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 @ Top Gun - Considine Upcoming
61% 26%
—
Feb 28 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
33% 51%
—
Feb 28 Boston Jr Terriers White @ South Shore Kings 2016 Skryz Upcoming
16% 71%
—
Feb 28 Mass Conn Hockey Club 2016 @ Top Gun - Considine Upcoming
34% 49%
—
Feb 28 BOSTON VIPERS 2016 - TIER 1 @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - 2016 Upcoming
30% 57%
—