The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan 11 7 1 3 34 26 17 —
2 Cyclones Academy- Hein 10 5 2 3 47 39 13 —
3 Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 10 4 3 3 39 32 11 —
4 Top Gun - Rogers 6 4 1 1 26 15 9 —
5 Minuteman Flames 5 4 1 0 28 17 8 —
6 South Shore Kings 8 4 4 0 30 34 8 —
7 IHC 13- Petitjean 7 2 5 0 19 20 4 —
8 Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi 8 2 6 0 23 30 4 —
9 Spartans - Laganas 8 2 6 0 18 30 4 —
10 BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 7 1 6 0 16 37 2 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Top Gun - Rogers 2 (1–5) 29% 49 (40–57)
2 Cyclones Academy- Hein 3 (1–5) 12% 46 (39–52)
3 South Shore Kings 3 (1–7) 27% 47 (31–58)
4 Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan 4 (2–6) 7% 45 (38–51)
5 Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 4 (1–6) 11% 45 (36–53)
6 Minuteman Flames 4 (1–6) 14% 44 (34–54)
7 IHC 13- Petitjean 7 (6–9) <1% 29 (21–37)
8 Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi 8 (7–9) <1% 24 (17–31)
9 Spartans - Laganas 9 (7–10) <1% 18 (9–31)
10 BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 10 (8–10) <1% 14 (7–25)
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 03 Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi @ Spartans - Laganas Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 03 Cyclones Academy- Hein @ BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 03 Top Gun - Rogers @ Spartans - Laganas Upcoming 50/50 —
Sep 06 Minuteman Flames @ Cyclones Academy- Hein 4–8 50/50 —
Sep 12 Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 @ Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 IHC 13- Petitjean @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 0–1 50/50 —
Sep 19 South Shore Kings @ Cyclones Academy- Hein 6–4 50/50 —
Sep 19 Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 2–1 50/50 —
Sep 19 Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi @ Top Gun - Rogers 2–4 50/50 —
Sep 20 IHC 13- Petitjean @ BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 3–5 50/50 —
Sep 20 Minuteman Flames @ Spartans - Laganas 4–0 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi @ South Shore Kings 1–5 50/50 —
Sep 20 Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan @ Cyclones Academy- Hein 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 20 Top Gun - Rogers @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 26 BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi 2–5 50/50 —
Sep 26 Cyclones Academy- Hein @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 7–5
48% 36%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.04
Sep 26 Top Gun - Rogers @ Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan 4–2 50/50 —
Sep 27 Spartans - Laganas @ Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan 1–4 50/50 —
Sep 27 Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi @ Cyclones Academy- Hein 4–5
25% 63%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.66
Sep 27 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 0–6 50/50 —
Oct 03 Minuteman Flames @ Cyclones Academy- Hein 4–3 50/50 —
Oct 03 Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan @ IHC 13- Petitjean 3–2 50/50 —
Oct 03 Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 3–5
26% 58%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.77
Oct 03 Spartans - Laganas @ South Shore Kings 0–8 50/50 —
Oct 04 Top Gun - Rogers @ South Shore Kings 2–4
39% 45%
1.15
Oct 04 Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 @ Spartans - Laganas 4–2
83% 8%
0.27
Oct 04 Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi 2–1
50% 34%
1.01
Oct 10 IHC 13- Petitjean @ BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 7–3 50/50 —
Oct 11 BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 @ Spartans - Laganas 1–8
63% 24%
2.05
Oct 11 IHC 13- Petitjean @ Cyclones Academy- Hein 4–6
22% 66%
0.60
Oct 17 Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi @ Minuteman Flames 3–7
27% 59%
0.77
Oct 17 Top Gun - Rogers @ BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 6–3
83% 10%
0.28
Oct 17 Cyclones Academy- Hein @ Spartans - Laganas 5–3
75% 16%
0.42
Oct 17 IHC 13- Petitjean @ Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan 1–2
26% 59%
0.77
Oct 18 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun - Rogers 2–8
50% 35%
1.53
Oct 18 BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 @ Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan 2–4
9% 83%
0.27
Oct 18 Spartans - Laganas @ IHC 13- Petitjean 0–2
28% 56%
0.83
Oct 18 Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 @ Cyclones Academy- Hein 5–5
44% 42%
2.84
Oct 24 Cyclones Academy- Hein @ Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan 1–1
41% 44%
2.73
Oct 24 IHC 13- Petitjean @ Minuteman Flames Upcoming
25% 61%
—
Oct 24 Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi @ BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 4–0
60% 27%
0.73
Oct 24 Spartans - Laganas @ South Shore Kings 4–2
13% 77%
2.96 UPSET
Oct 25 Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 8–7
36% 46%
1.46
Oct 25 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 9–3
47% 38%
1.08
Oct 25 Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi @ IHC 13- Petitjean Upcoming
36% 48%
—
Oct 31 Top Gun - Rogers @ Cyclones Academy- Hein Upcoming
45% 41%
—
Oct 31 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi Upcoming
71% 18%
—
Oct 31 Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 @ South Shore Kings Upcoming
53% 33%
—
Nov 01 Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 @ BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 Upcoming
86% 8%
—
Nov 01 Top Gun - Rogers @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi Upcoming
64% 22%
—
Nov 07 Cyclones Academy- Hein @ Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan Upcoming
42% 43%
—
Nov 07 BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 @ Minuteman Flames Upcoming
3% 94%
—
Nov 07 IHC 13- Petitjean @ Top Gun - Rogers Upcoming
22% 64%
—
Nov 07 Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 Upcoming
22% 65%
—
Nov 08 Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi Upcoming
57% 27%
—
Nov 08 Cyclones Academy- Hein @ Minuteman Flames Upcoming
30% 58%
—
Nov 08 BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 @ IHC 13- Petitjean Upcoming
16% 74%
—
Nov 14 South Shore Kings @ Spartans - Laganas Upcoming
56% 29%
—
Nov 14 Top Gun - Rogers @ BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 Upcoming
88% 6%
—
Nov 14 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan Upcoming
50% 35%
—
Nov 14 Cyclones Academy- Hein @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi Upcoming
63% 24%
—
Nov 14 South Shore Kings @ Spartans - Laganas Upcoming
56% 29%
—
Nov 14 Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 @ IHC 13- Petitjean Upcoming
55% 30%
—
Nov 15 Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan @ Spartans - Laganas Upcoming
63% 22%
—
Nov 15 Top Gun - Rogers @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 Upcoming
46% 39%
—
Nov 15 IHC 13- Petitjean @ Minuteman Flames Upcoming
17% 71%
—
Nov 15 BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi Upcoming
18% 71%
—
Nov 21 IHC 13- Petitjean @ Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan Upcoming
27% 57%
—
Nov 21 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 Upcoming
52% 34%
—
Nov 21 Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi @ South Shore Kings Upcoming
32% 54%
—
Nov 21 BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 @ Top Gun - Rogers Upcoming
5% 90%
—
Nov 22 Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi Upcoming
60% 26%
—
Nov 22 Minuteman Flames @ Spartans - Laganas Upcoming
77% 13%
—
Nov 22 Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan @ Top Gun - Rogers Upcoming
34% 49%
—
Nov 22 South Shore Kings @ IHC 13- Petitjean Upcoming
44% 41%
—
Nov 28 Cyclones Academy- Hein @ IHC 13- Petitjean Upcoming
58% 28%
—
Nov 28 BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 @ South Shore Kings Upcoming
11% 82%
—
Nov 28 Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 @ Spartans - Laganas Upcoming
66% 20%
—
Nov 29 Minuteman Flames @ BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Nov 29 IHC 13- Petitjean @ Spartans - Laganas Upcoming
50% 34%
—
Nov 29 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 Upcoming
28% 59%
—
Nov 29 Cyclones Academy- Hein @ Top Gun - Rogers Upcoming
36% 50%
—
Dec 05 Spartans - Laganas @ Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan Upcoming
19% 67%
—
Dec 05 Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi @ IHC 13- Petitjean Upcoming
36% 48%
—
Dec 05 BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 Upcoming
6% 89%
—
Dec 05 South Shore Kings @ Cyclones Academy- Hein Upcoming
26% 63%
—
Dec 05 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun - Rogers Upcoming
45% 40%
—
Dec 06 BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 @ Cyclones Academy- Hein Upcoming
4% 92%
—
Dec 06 Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi @ Top Gun - Rogers Upcoming
19% 69%
—
Dec 06 Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan @ South Shore Kings Upcoming
51% 34%
—
Dec 06 Spartans - Laganas @ Minuteman Flames Upcoming
10% 81%
—
Dec 11 Top Gun - Rogers @ Spartans - Laganas Upcoming
70% 17%
—
Dec 12 Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 @ Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan Upcoming
40% 44%
—
Dec 12 Spartans - Laganas @ Top Gun - Rogers Upcoming
14% 74%
—
Dec 12 BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 @ Minuteman Flames Upcoming
3% 94%
—
Dec 12 IHC 13- Petitjean @ South Shore Kings Upcoming
36% 49%
—
Dec 13 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi Upcoming
71% 18%
—
Dec 13 Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan @ BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 Upcoming
81% 10%
—
Dec 13 Spartans - Laganas @ IHC 13- Petitjean Upcoming
30% 54%
—
Dec 13 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun - Rogers Upcoming
23% 64%
—
Dec 19 Spartans - Laganas @ Cyclones Academy- Hein Upcoming
15% 75%
—
Dec 19 BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 @ Top Gun - Rogers Upcoming
5% 90%
—
Dec 19 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi Upcoming
48% 37%
—
Dec 19 Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 @ Minuteman Flames Upcoming
29% 58%
—
Dec 19 Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan @ IHC 13- Petitjean Upcoming
53% 31%
—
Dec 20 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan Upcoming
50% 35%
—
Dec 20 Cyclones Academy- Hein @ South Shore Kings Upcoming
56% 31%
—
Dec 20 BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 Upcoming
6% 89%
—
Dec 20 Top Gun - Rogers @ IHC 13- Petitjean Upcoming
60% 26%
—
Dec 26 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames Upcoming
18% 71%
—
Dec 26 Spartans - Laganas @ BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 Upcoming
57% 28%
—
Dec 26 Top Gun - Rogers @ IHC 13- Petitjean Upcoming
60% 26%
—
Dec 27 Top Gun - Rogers @ Minuteman Flames Upcoming
35% 50%
—
Dec 27 Top Gun - Rogers @ Minuteman Flames Upcoming
35% 50%
—
Dec 27 Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan @ South Shore Kings Upcoming
51% 34%
—
Dec 27 BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 @ Cyclones Academy- Hein Upcoming
4% 92%
—
Jan 02 Spartans - Laganas @ Cyclones Academy- Hein Upcoming
15% 75%
—
Jan 02 Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi @ Minuteman Flames Upcoming
14% 76%
—
Jan 02 Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 @ South Shore Kings Upcoming
53% 33%
—
Jan 02 BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 @ Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan Upcoming
8% 84%
—
Jan 03 South Shore Kings @ BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 Upcoming
77% 14%
—
Jan 03 Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi @ Cyclones Academy- Hein Upcoming
20% 69%
—
Jan 03 Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan @ Minuteman Flames Upcoming
30% 55%
—
Jan 03 Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 @ Top Gun - Rogers Upcoming
34% 51%
—
Jan 09 IHC 13- Petitjean @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi Upcoming
43% 40%
—
Jan 09 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings Upcoming
66% 23%
—
Jan 09 Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 @ Cyclones Academy- Hein Upcoming
38% 48%
—
Jan 09 Spartans - Laganas @ Top Gun - Rogers Upcoming
14% 74%
—
Jan 10 Cyclones Academy- Hein @ Minuteman Flames Upcoming
30% 58%
—
Jan 10 Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi @ BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 Upcoming
66% 22%
—
Jan 10 IHC 13- Petitjean @ South Shore Kings Upcoming
36% 49%
—
Jan 10 Spartans - Laganas @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 Upcoming
17% 71%
—
Jan 17 Spartans - Laganas @ BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 Upcoming
57% 28%
—
Jan 23 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan Upcoming
29% 56%
—
Jan 23 Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 @ IHC 13- Petitjean Upcoming
55% 30%
—
Jan 23 Spartans - Laganas @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi Upcoming
33% 51%
—
Jan 23 Cyclones Academy- Hein @ BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 Upcoming
89% 6%
—
Jan 23 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun - Rogers Upcoming
45% 40%
—
Jan 23 Top Gun - Rogers @ Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan Upcoming
45% 39%
—
Jan 24 Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan @ Minuteman Flames Upcoming
30% 55%
—
Jan 24 Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 @ BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 Upcoming
86% 8%
—
Jan 24 Spartans - Laganas @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi Upcoming
33% 51%
—
Jan 24 Top Gun - Rogers @ Cyclones Academy- Hein Upcoming
45% 41%
—
Jan 24 South Shore Kings @ IHC 13- Petitjean Upcoming
44% 41%
—
Jan 30 Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan @ Top Gun - Rogers Upcoming
34% 49%
—
Jan 30 IHC 13- Petitjean @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi Upcoming
43% 40%
—
Jan 30 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 Upcoming
52% 34%
—
Jan 30 Cyclones Academy- Hein @ Spartans - Laganas Upcoming
70% 18%
—
Jan 31 BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 @ South Shore Kings Upcoming
11% 82%
—
Jan 31 Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 @ Top Gun - Rogers Upcoming
34% 51%
—
Jan 31 Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi @ Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan Upcoming
24% 61%
—
Jan 31 Spartans - Laganas @ Minuteman Flames Upcoming
10% 81%
—
Jan 31 Cyclones Academy- Hein @ IHC 13- Petitjean Upcoming
58% 28%
—
Feb 06 Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi @ Spartans - Laganas Upcoming
46% 37%
—
Feb 06 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan Upcoming
29% 56%
—
Feb 06 BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 @ IHC 13- Petitjean Upcoming
16% 74%
—
Feb 06 Cyclones Academy- Hein @ Top Gun - Rogers Upcoming
36% 50%
—
Feb 07 Cyclones Academy- Hein @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi Upcoming
63% 24%
—
Feb 07 Top Gun - Rogers @ South Shore Kings Upcoming
58% 28%
—
Feb 07 Minuteman Flames @ BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Feb 13 Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan @ Spartans - Laganas Upcoming
63% 22%
—
Feb 13 Cyclones Academy- Hein @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 Upcoming
42% 44%
—
Feb 13 Minuteman Flames @ IHC 13- Petitjean Upcoming
66% 21%
—
Feb 14 IHC 13- Petitjean @ Cyclones Academy- Hein Upcoming
23% 64%
—
Feb 19 BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 @ Spartans - Laganas Upcoming
24% 62%
—
Feb 20 IHC 13- Petitjean @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 Upcoming
25% 60%
—
Feb 20 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames Upcoming
18% 71%
—
Feb 20 Top Gun - Rogers @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi Upcoming
64% 22%
—
Feb 21 Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 @ Minuteman Flames Upcoming
29% 58%
—
Feb 21 Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan @ BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 Upcoming
81% 10%
—
Feb 21 IHC 13- Petitjean @ Spartans - Laganas Upcoming
50% 34%
—
Feb 21 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi Upcoming
48% 37%
—
Feb 27 Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi Upcoming
60% 26%
—
Feb 27 South Shore Kings @ BOSTON VIPERS 2013 - TIER 1 Upcoming
77% 14%
—
Feb 27 IHC 13- Petitjean @ Top Gun - Rogers Upcoming
22% 64%
—
Feb 27 Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan @ Cyclones Academy- Hein Upcoming
38% 47%
—
Feb 28 Cyclones Academy- Hein @ South Shore Kings Upcoming
56% 31%
—
Feb 28 Boston Jr. Eagles-Mensi @ Providence Capitals 2013 North - Meehan Upcoming
24% 61%
—
Feb 28 Minuteman Flames @ IHC 13- Petitjean Upcoming
66% 21%
—
Feb 28 Spartans - Laganas @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red - 2013 Upcoming
17% 71%
—