The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS
1 Top Gun 36 27 6 3 204 93 57
2 Boston Jr Terriers 37 24 6 7 177 104 55
3 Islanders Hockey Club 36 26 8 2 177 128 54
4 Minuteman Flames 37 18 15 4 138 142 40
5 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 36 17 17 2 122 111 36
6 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 16 8 2 6 61 36 22
7 Boston Jr Eagles 37 9 26 2 104 161 20
8 Providence Capitals - Boulis 37 6 28 3 81 178 15
9 South Shore Kings 36 4 31 1 79 190 9

Game Log

Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Feb 22 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 7–1
53.5%
31.1%
0.90
Feb 22 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 5–3
73.1%
15.8%
0.45
Feb 22 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–3
18.4%
70.4%
3.16 UPSET
Feb 22 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–7
4.4%
91.1%
0.13
Feb 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 3–6
3.6%
92.3%
0.12
Feb 21 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ South Shore Kings 5–2
81.0%
10.0%
0.30
Feb 21 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 2–7
12.6%
78.5%
0.35
Feb 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 7–2
19.2%
68.8%
2.38
Feb 21 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 1–3
10.0%
81.0%
0.30
Feb 21 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–9
36.7%
49.6%
1.01
Feb 15 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–5
6.3%
87.7%
0.19
Feb 15 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 1–6
8.4%
84.0%
0.25
Feb 14 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–7
9.7%
82.6%
0.28
Feb 14 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–5
28.2%
57.0%
0.81
Feb 14 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–11
6.8%
86.4%
0.21
Feb 08 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 4–2
24.7%
62.7%
2.02
Feb 08 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 3–6
60.5%
25.1%
2.00
Feb 08 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 3–9
16.6%
70.8%
0.50
Feb 07 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 7–1
91.4%
4.1%
0.13
Feb 07 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–3
27.7%
57.8%
0.79
Feb 07 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Islanders Hockey Club 5–8
7.3%
85.8%
0.22
Feb 07 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 2–5
9.0%
83.3%
0.26
Feb 01 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 3–2
74.4%
14.7%
0.43
Feb 01 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 6–7
46.0%
39.9%
1.33
Feb 01 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 6–2
73.5%
15.6%
0.44
Jan 31 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 3–1
18.5%
67.3%
2.43
Jan 31 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 5–5
18.5%
67.3%
2.82 UPSET
Jan 31 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–8
12.8%
77.8%
0.36
Jan 31 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 3–6
12.7%
78.6%
0.35
Jan 31 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 6–1
84.7%
7.7%
0.24
Jan 25 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–3
66.9%
21.9%
0.58
Jan 25 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–6
27.2%
57.8%
0.79
Jan 24 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 6–6
62.0%
24.8%
2.92 UPSET
Jan 24 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 8–1
93.0%
3.2%
0.10
Jan 24 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–2
22.5%
64.1%
0.64
Jan 11 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–4
63.7%
23.3%
0.65
Jan 11 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 6–0
81.8%
10.0%
0.29
Jan 11 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun 2–7
46.0%
37.3%
1.42
Jan 11 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–10
4.6%
90.3%
0.15
Jan 11 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun 5–2
46.0%
37.3%
1.12
Jan 10 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 2–2
91.6%
3.5%
4.34 UPSET
Jan 10 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 2–0
82.7%
9.5%
0.27
Jan 10 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Top Gun 2–7
17.7%
70.1%
0.51
Jan 10 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 2–0
91.6%
3.5%
0.13
Jan 04 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ South Shore Kings 1–1
52.5%
32.4%
2.73 UPSET
Jan 04 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 1–2
23.1%
62.5%
0.68
Jan 04 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 3–2
60.3%
26.3%
0.73
Jan 03 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–7
5.3%
89.8%
0.15
Jan 03 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–2
78.4%
12.0%
0.35
Jan 03 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 4–3
73.5%
15.7%
0.44
Dec 21 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 7–2
88.5%
5.8%
0.18
Dec 21 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ South Shore Kings 6–3
78.1%
11.8%
0.36
Dec 21 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–5
34.6%
51.2%
1.53
Dec 21 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Minuteman Flames 2–3
14.9%
74.8%
0.42
Dec 20 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 4–1
54.2%
29.9%
0.88
Dec 20 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 4–7
1.1%
97.3%
0.04
Dec 20 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 2–5
1.1%
97.3%
0.04
Dec 20 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 1–3
87.0%
6.8%
3.87 UPSET
Dec 14 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–3
62.6%
22.8%
0.67
Dec 14 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ South Shore Kings 1–5
58.3%
27.5%
1.86
Dec 14 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–5
48.6%
37.1%
1.43
Dec 14 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 6–2
76.5%
14.2%
0.39
Dec 13 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 3–8
24.5%
62.3%
0.68
Dec 13 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 5–9
23.7%
64.1%
0.64
Dec 13 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–8
3.2%
92.8%
0.11
Dec 13 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 1–3
16.4%
71.5%
0.48
Dec 07 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 4–4
27.6%
58.1%
2.80 UPSET
Dec 07 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–3
12.2%
78.9%
3.48 UPSET
Dec 07 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 6–4
13.0%
76.0%
2.94 UPSET
Dec 06 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–5
35.2%
49.1%
1.02
Dec 06 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Minuteman Flames 2–4
12.5%
78.5%
0.35
Dec 06 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 1–7
6.6%
87.1%
0.20
Nov 30 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 8–6
61.8%
24.5%
0.69
Nov 30 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 3–1
24.7%
61.9%
2.02
Nov 29 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 6–0
86.2%
7.1%
0.21
Nov 29 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 8–5
86.2%
7.1%
0.21
Nov 23 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Top Gun 0–4
24.8%
61.0%
0.71
Nov 23 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 6–5
74.2%
15.2%
0.43
Nov 23 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–2
32.3%
53.5%
1.63
Nov 22 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 1–4
26.8%
61.3%
0.71
Nov 22 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 3–0
94.7%
2.3%
0.08
Nov 22 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 4–1
51.9%
32.6%
0.94
Nov 22 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 3–6
35.8%
47.6%
1.07
Nov 16 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 2–3
75.5%
14.8%
2.76 UPSET
Nov 16 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 10–4
93.4%
3.0%
0.10
Nov 16 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 1–3
21.7%
63.8%
0.65
Nov 15 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–2
50.4%
35.6%
2.84
Nov 15 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 6–0
71.6%
16.4%
0.48
Nov 15 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–5
30.0%
56.7%
0.82
Nov 15 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 1–2
71.6%
16.4%
2.61 UPSET
Nov 15 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–6
15.9%
71.6%
0.48
Nov 09 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 0–1
51.9%
32.3%
1.63
Nov 09 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–3
7.9%
85.7%
0.22
Nov 09 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 2–3
51.9%
32.3%
1.63
Nov 09 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–5
10.1%
78.4%
0.35
Nov 08 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–2
59.3%
25.2%
0.75
Nov 08 Islanders Hockey Club @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 3–3
22.1%
62.8%
2.73 UPSET
Nov 08 Islanders Hockey Club @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 2–8
22.1%
62.8%
0.67
Nov 08 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–7
6.7%
86.4%
0.21
Nov 02 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 5–1
94.5%
2.0%
0.08
Nov 02 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 2–4
73.1%
15.9%
2.65 UPSET
Nov 02 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Minuteman Flames 3–3
82.4%
8.4%
3.45 UPSET
Nov 02 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–2
76.7%
12.7%
0.38
Nov 02 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Minuteman Flames 4–1
82.4%
8.4%
0.28
Nov 01 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ South Shore Kings 6–1
95.7%
1.4%
0.06
Nov 01 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ South Shore Kings 6–0
95.7%
1.4%
0.06
Nov 01 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 2–1
19.2%
71.1%
2.38
Nov 01 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 4–2
71.0%
17.3%
0.49
Nov 01 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 1–1
45.5%
38.8%
2.67
Oct 26 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–3
22.3%
63.0%
0.67
Oct 26 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ South Shore Kings 3–4
78.1%
11.8%
3.08 UPSET
Oct 26 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 5–2
59.8%
28.2%
0.74
Oct 25 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–4
38.4%
47.7%
1.07
Oct 25 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 5–1
80.9%
10.8%
0.31
Oct 19 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–2
76.2%
12.5%
0.39
Oct 19 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 7–2
81.5%
10.9%
0.30
Oct 18 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 5–1
4.5%
90.8%
4.48 UPSET
Oct 18 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–7
96.1%
1.4%
6.14 UPSET
Oct 12 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–1
59.2%
23.6%
0.76
Oct 12 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Boston Jr Terriers 1–6
9.0%
84.5%
0.24
Oct 12 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–5
3.6%
92.5%
0.11
Oct 11 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–3
52.0%
32.8%
0.94
Oct 11 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–4
59.8%
24.8%
0.74
Oct 11 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 2–7
23.0%
61.8%
0.69
Oct 05 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 12–0
96.0%
1.4%
0.06
Oct 05 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 4–2
38.4%
50.0%
1.38
Oct 04 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 5–8
54.7%
33.2%
1.59
Oct 04 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Top Gun 3–6
2.4%
94.9%
0.08
Sep 28 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 6–3
89.5%
5.5%
0.16
Sep 28 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–2
47.4%
38.7%
2.85
Sep 28 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 4–4
18.8%
66.8%
2.80 UPSET
Sep 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 1–3 50/50 —
Sep 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 0–5 50/50 —
Sep 27 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 6–4
80.0%
9.1% ⚠
0.32
Sep 27 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–7
14.3%
76.9% ⚠
0.38
Sep 27 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 4–6
18.9%
65.6% ⚠
0.61
Sep 21 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 6–3
97.6%
1.2% ⚠
0.03
Sep 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 2–0
45.7%
33.9% ⚠
1.13
Sep 20 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Top Gun 1–10 50/50 —
Sep 20 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Top Gun 4–11 50/50 —
Sep 20 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–3 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 5–1
76.4%
1.4% ⚠
0.39
Sep 14 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 6–7 50/50 —
Sep 14 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 4–2 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 4–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 4–0 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 9–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–1 50/50 —
Sep 07 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 1–4 50/50 —
Sep 06 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 5–3 50/50 —
Sep 06 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 1–3 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–1 50/50 —