The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	GF	GA	PTS	Champ %
1	Top Gun	37	27	6	4	202	93	58	22%
2	Islanders Hockey Club	37	26	8	3	177	128	55	13%
3	Boston Jr Terriers	37	24	6	7	177	104	55	18%
4	Minuteman Flames	37	18	15	4	138	142	40	37%
5	Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite	37	17	17	3	122	111	37	8%
6	Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers	16	8	2	6	61	36	22	—
7	Boston Jr Eagles	37	9	26	2	104	161	20	3%
8	Providence Capitals - Boulis	37	6	28	3	81	178	15	0%
9	South Shore Kings	37	4	31	2	79	188	10	0%

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

#	Team	Proj. Finish	Win Division	Proj. Points
1	Top Gun	1	100%	59 (59–59)
2	Islanders Hockey Club	2 (2–3)	<1%	56 (54–56)
3	Boston Jr Terriers	3 (2–3)	<1%	55 (55–55)
4	Minuteman Flames	4	<1%	40 (40–40)
5	Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite	5	<1%	36 (36–38)
6	Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers	6	<1%	22 (22–22)
7	Boston Jr Eagles	7	<1%	20 (20–20)
8	Providence Capitals - Boulis	8	<1%	15 (15–15)
9	South Shore Kings	9	<1%	9 (9–9)

Game Log

Date	Matchup	Score	Pre-game Probability	Surprisal	Flag
Feb 22	Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Boulis	7–1	50% 34%	1.01
Feb 22	Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite	5–3	67% 19%	0.57
Feb 22	Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers	3–3	17% 72%	3.17	UPSET
Feb 22	South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club	3–7	5% 90%	0.16
Feb 21	Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames	7–2	19% 69%	2.42
Feb 21	South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite	1–3	10% 79%	0.34
Feb 21	Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun	3–6	4% 92%	0.13
Feb 21	Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers	2–9	34% 52%	0.94
Feb 21	Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ South Shore Kings	5–2	75% 13%	0.42
Feb 21	Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun	2–7	13% 77%	0.37
Feb 15	Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Islanders Hockey Club	1–5	6% 87%	0.19
Feb 15	Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers	1–6	8% 84%	0.24
Feb 14	Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club	3–7	10% 82%	0.28
Feb 14	Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Boston Jr Terriers	2–11	6% 86%	0.21
Feb 14	South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles	3–5	28% 57%	0.82
Feb 08	Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun	4–2	25% 62%	2.02
Feb 08	Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings	3–6	54% 29%	1.78
Feb 08	Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite	3–9	16% 70%	0.51
Feb 07	Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers	2–3	25% 59%	0.75
Feb 07	Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Islanders Hockey Club	5–8	7% 85%	0.23
Feb 07	South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames	2–5	10% 82%	0.29
Feb 07	Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles	7–1	88% 6%	0.19
Feb 01	Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Boulis	3–2	70% 18%	0.51
Feb 01	Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club	6–7	43% 43%	1.23
Feb 01	Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite	6–2	67% 20%	0.58
Jan 31	Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers	3–1	21% 63%	2.26
Jan 31	Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers	5–5	19% 64%	2.58	UPSET
Jan 31	Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club	1–8	12% 78%	0.36
Jan 31	Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun	3–6	14% 77%	0.37
Jan 31	Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Boulis	6–1	81% 10%	0.30
Jan 25	Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club	4–3	60% 27%	0.74
Jan 25	Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers	4–6	25% 59%	0.77
Jan 24	Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames	6–6	58% 28%	2.83	UPSET
Jan 24	Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Boulis	8–1	89% 5%	0.17
Jan 24	South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles	1–2	23% 63%	0.66
Jan 11	Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles	6–4	60% 26%	0.74
Jan 11	Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun	5–2	31% 53%	1.70
Jan 11	Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Boulis	6–0	77% 13%	0.38
Jan 11	Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun	2–7	38% 44%	1.17
Jan 11	South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers	2–10	5% 89%	0.17
Jan 10	Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Providence Capitals - Boulis	2–2	84% 7%	3.48	UPSET
Jan 10	Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings	2–0	77% 13%	0.38
Jan 10	Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Top Gun	2–7	18% 68%	0.55
Jan 10	Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Providence Capitals - Boulis	2–0	86% 6%	0.23
Jan 04	Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite	1–2	21% 63%	0.66
Jan 04	Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames	3–2	56% 30%	0.84
Jan 04	Providence Capitals - Boulis @ South Shore Kings	1–1	49% 35%	2.62
Jan 03	South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club	1–7	6% 88%	0.18
Jan 03	Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles	3–2	74% 14%	0.43
Jan 03	Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Boulis	4–3	68% 20%	0.56
Dec 21	Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles	7–2	83% 9%	0.27
Dec 21	Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ South Shore Kings	6–3	72% 15%	0.48
Dec 21	Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers	6–5	33% 53%	1.62
Dec 21	Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Minuteman Flames	2–3	15% 74%	0.43
Dec 20	South Shore Kings @ Top Gun	4–7	2% 95%	0.08
Dec 20	Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite	4–1	50% 32%	1.00
Dec 20	South Shore Kings @ Top Gun	2–5	2% 95%	0.07
Dec 20	Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Boulis	1–3	82% 10%	3.31	UPSET
Dec 14	Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles	5–3	58% 25%	0.80
Dec 14	Providence Capitals - Boulis @ South Shore Kings	1–5	53% 32%	1.66
Dec 14	Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club	4–5	45% 40%	1.31
Dec 14	Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames	6–2	68% 20%	0.55
Dec 13	Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames	3–8	23% 63%	0.66
Dec 13	Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun	5–9	25% 61%	0.70
Dec 13	Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite	1–3	16% 70%	0.51
Dec 13	South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers	4–8	4% 90%	0.15
Dec 07	Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun	4–4	28% 57%	2.69	UPSET
Dec 07	Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite	6–4	13% 74%	2.91	UPSET
Dec 07	Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club	3–3	12% 78%	3.41	UPSET
Dec 06	Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club	3–5	32% 51%	0.97
Dec 06	Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun	1–7	8% 84%	0.25
Dec 06	Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Minuteman Flames	2–4	13% 78%	0.36
Nov 30	Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles	8–6	58% 28%	0.80
Nov 30	South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Boulis	3–1	25% 61%	2.00
Nov 29	Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings	6–0	79% 12%	0.34
Nov 29	Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings	8–5	78% 12%	0.36
Nov 23	Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Top Gun	0–4	25% 58%	0.78
Nov 23	Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Boulis	6–5	68% 19%	0.55
Nov 23	Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers	6–2	31% 54%	1.67
Nov 22	Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun	1–4	29% 58%	0.79
Nov 22	Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Boulis	4–1	48% 36%	1.07
Nov 22	Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite	3–6	32% 49%	1.02
Nov 22	Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings	3–0	90% 5%	0.16
Nov 16	Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite	1–3	20% 63%	0.67
Nov 16	Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames	2–3	68% 20%	2.32
Nov 16	Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings	10–4	86% 7%	0.21
Nov 15	Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers	2–2	45% 40%	2.73
Nov 15	Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Boulis	6–0	60% 24%	0.74
Nov 15	Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club	3–5	27% 59%	0.76
Nov 15	South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles	5–6	18% 66%	0.59
Nov 15	Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Boulis	1–2	64% 21%	2.26
Nov 09	Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Minuteman Flames	0–1	47% 36%	1.47
Nov 09	Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Islanders Hockey Club	2–3	10% 83%	0.27
Nov 09	Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Minuteman Flames	2–3	50% 34%	1.56
Nov 09	Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers	4–5	11% 78%	0.37
Nov 09	Islanders Hockey Club @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers	3–3	19% 68%	2.95	UPSET
Nov 08	Islanders Hockey Club @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers	2–8	28% 57%	0.82
Nov 08	Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Boston Jr Terriers	2–7	8% 84%	0.25
Nov 08	Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles	4–2	52% 32%	0.94
Nov 02	Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings	5–1	88% 5%	0.18
Nov 02	Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles	3–2	72% 16%	0.48
Nov 02	Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Minuteman Flames	4–1	66% 20%	0.60
Nov 02	Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite	2–4	62% 23%	2.10
Nov 02	Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Minuteman Flames	3–3	71% 17%	3.05	UPSET
Nov 01	Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ South Shore Kings	6–1	88% 5%	0.18
Nov 01	Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ South Shore Kings	6–0	83% 8%	0.26
Nov 01	Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun	2–1	23% 66%	2.15
Nov 01	Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames	4–2	63% 24%	0.67
Nov 01	Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Boulis	1–1	41% 43%	2.68
Oct 26	Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames	5–2	56% 31%	0.83
Oct 26	Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers	2–3	27% 56%	0.84
Oct 26	Providence Capitals - Boulis @ South Shore Kings	3–4	62% 24%	2.06
Oct 25	Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club	2–4	35% 50%	1.01
Oct 25	Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Boulis	5–1	72% 17%	0.47
Oct 19	Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles	5–2	68% 18%	0.55
Oct 19	Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames	7–2	70% 19%	0.51
Oct 18	Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers	5–1	13% 78%	2.99	UPSET
Oct 18	Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles	4–7	90% 5%	4.45	UPSET
Oct 12	Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles	4–1	58% 24%	0.78
Oct 12	Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Boston Jr Terriers	1–6	13% 78%	0.36
Oct 12	South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club	1–5	8% 86%	0.22
Oct 11	Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers	6–3	52% 33%	0.94
Oct 11	Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Boston Jr Eagles	6–4	46% 38%	1.11
Oct 11	South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames	2–7	24% 62%	0.69
Oct 05	Top Gun @ South Shore Kings	10–0	87% 6%	0.20
Oct 05	Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite	4–2	39% 47%	1.37
Oct 04	Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite	5–8	46% 38%	1.40
Oct 04	Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Top Gun	3–6	5% 90%	0.15
Sep 28	Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings	6–3	71% 16%	0.49
Sep 28	Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers	2–2	48% 38%	2.82
Sep 28	Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite	4–4	20% 65%	2.81	UPSET
Sep 27	Boston Jr Eagles @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers	0–5	19% 64%	0.64
Sep 27	Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite	6–4	51% 30%	0.98
Sep 27	Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club	3–7	20% 68%	0.55
Sep 27	South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Boulis	4–6	32% 51%	0.98
Sep 27	Boston Jr Eagles @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers	1–3	50/50	—
Sep 21	Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club	6–3	64% 24% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	0.64
Sep 21	Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings	2–0	42% 40% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	1.24
Sep 20	Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Top Gun	1–10	12% 80% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	0.33
Sep 20	Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles	6–3	50% 34% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	1.01
Sep 20	Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Top Gun	4–11	50/50	—
Sep 14	Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings	5–1	75% 13% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	0.41
Sep 14	Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club	6–7	50/50	—
Sep 14	Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Boulis	4–2	50/50	—
Sep 14	Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite	4–1	50/50	—
Sep 13	Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Minuteman Flames	4–0	50/50	—
Sep 13	Boston Jr Terriers @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers	3–3	50/50	—
Sep 13	Top Gun @ South Shore Kings	9–3	50/50	—
Sep 13	Boston Jr Terriers @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers	3–3	50/50	—
Sep 13	Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Boston Jr Eagles	3–1	50/50	—
Sep 07	South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite	1–4	50/50	—
Sep 06	South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite	1–3	50/50	—
Sep 06	Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames	5–3	50/50	—
Sep 06	Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles	6–1	50/50	—
Aug 01	Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club	0–0	50/50	—
Aug 01	South Shore Kings @ Top Gun	0–0	50/50	—