The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 TopGun 2016 Elite 8 7 0 1 52 16 15 —
2 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 11 6 2 3 41 32 15 —
3 Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille 9 4 3 2 34 34 10 —
4 Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina 5 4 1 0 22 6 8 —
5 IHC 16 Elite 9 2 4 3 33 23 7 —
6 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers 4 3 1 0 15 11 6 —
7 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 8 2 5 1 32 32 5 —
8 Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis 8 2 6 0 19 33 4 —
9 South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell 8 0 8 0 5 66 0 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 TopGun 2016 Elite 1 94% 62 (56–67)
2 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 2 (2–3) 3% 49 (44–55)
3 Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina 3 (2–4) 2% 48 (41–54)
4 IHC 16 Elite 4 (3–6) <1% 39 (29–47)
5 Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille 5 (4–7) <1% 32 (25–40)
6 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 6 (5–8) <1% 28 (21–35)
7 Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis 7 (5–8) <1% 21 (14–32)
8 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers 7 (6–8) <1% 22 (18–26)
9 South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell 9 <1% 1 (0–5)
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Sep 12 TopGun 2016 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille 10–0 50/50 —
Sep 12 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 2–6 50/50 —
Sep 13 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 6–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 @ Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 19 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 @ South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell 7–1 50/50 —
Sep 19 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ TopGun 2016 Elite 3–5 50/50 —
Sep 19 Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille @ IHC 16 Elite 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 19 Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina 1–5 50/50 —
Sep 20 TopGun 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 4–2 50/50 —
Sep 20 South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell @ Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis 0–6 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina @ Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille 4–2 50/50 —
Sep 20 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ IHC 16 Elite 1–1 50/50 —
Sep 26 Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille @ South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell 7–1 50/50 —
Sep 26 IHC 16 Elite @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 27 TopGun 2016 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell 12–0
98% 0%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.02
Sep 27 Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 1–3 50/50 —
Sep 27 Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 5–6
20% 65%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.62
Oct 03 Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 5–3
40% 43%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.32
Oct 03 South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell @ IHC 16 Elite 0–7
3% 92%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.13
Oct 04 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 @ South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell 9–0
90% 4%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.15
Oct 10 Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille @ Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis 3–1
27% 58%
1.88
Oct 10 IHC 16 Elite @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 1–2
32% 51%
0.98
Oct 10 South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina 2–10 50/50 —
Oct 11 IHC 16 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille 3–5
54% 27%
1.88
Oct 11 TopGun 2016 Elite @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 5–5
66% 21%
2.94 UPSET
Oct 11 Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina @ TopGun 2016 Elite 0–1
21% 67%
0.58
Oct 17 TopGun 2016 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille 8–3
84% 8%
0.25
Oct 17 IHC 16 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis 10–0
47% 36%
1.10
Oct 17 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 3–4 50/50 —
Oct 17 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 3–2 50/50 —
Oct 18 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ IHC 16 Elite 3–0 50/50 —
Oct 18 TopGun 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 7–3
84% 8%
0.25
Oct 18 Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina 0–3
10% 81%
0.30
Oct 18 South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell @ Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille 1–8
2% 96%
0.06
Oct 18 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ IHC 16 Elite 6–5
44% 39%
1.18
Oct 31 TopGun 2016 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell Upcoming
100% 0%
—
Oct 31 Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis @ IHC 16 Elite Upcoming
14% 74%
—
Oct 31 Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite Upcoming
19% 69%
—
Nov 01 TopGun 2016 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Nov 07 IHC 16 Elite @ TopGun 2016 Elite Upcoming
15% 74%
—
Nov 07 South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Nov 07 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 @ Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis Upcoming
56% 30%
—
Nov 07 South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Nov 08 Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming
9% 83%
—
Nov 08 South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Nov 08 Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming
9% 83%
—
Nov 08 IHC 16 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 Upcoming
57% 28%
—
Nov 14 South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell @ Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis Upcoming
4% 91%
—
Nov 14 TopGun 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina Upcoming
55% 30%
—
Nov 15 Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite Upcoming
46% 37%
—
Nov 15 Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis @ Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille Upcoming
25% 61%
—
Nov 15 Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite Upcoming
46% 37%
—
Nov 21 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Nov 21 IHC 16 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina Upcoming
28% 56%
—
Nov 21 IHC 16 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina Upcoming
28% 56%
—
Nov 21 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 @ Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis Upcoming
56% 30%
—
Nov 22 Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite Upcoming
46% 37%
—
Nov 22 IHC 16 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 Upcoming
57% 28%
—
Nov 22 South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Nov 28 Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 Upcoming
68% 19%
—
Nov 28 Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis @ South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell Upcoming
88% 6%
—
Nov 28 IHC 16 Elite @ TopGun 2016 Elite Upcoming
15% 74%
—
Nov 28 Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite Upcoming
19% 69%
—
Nov 29 Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis @ TopGun 2016 Elite Upcoming
2% 94%
—
Nov 29 IHC 16 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell Upcoming
98% 1%
—
Nov 29 Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina @ Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille Upcoming
68% 19%
—
Nov 29 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 Upcoming
64% 23%
—
Dec 05 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Dec 05 Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming
17% 72%
—
Dec 05 TopGun 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina Upcoming
55% 30%
—
Dec 05 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 @ IHC 16 Elite Upcoming
24% 62%
—
Dec 05 Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming
17% 72%
—
Dec 06 TopGun 2016 Elite @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming
63% 24%
—
Dec 06 Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina @ South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Dec 06 TopGun 2016 Elite @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming
63% 24%
—
Dec 06 Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis @ Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille Upcoming
25% 61%
—
Dec 12 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 @ Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille Upcoming
40% 46%
—
Dec 12 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina Upcoming
35% 48%
—
Dec 12 South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell @ TopGun 2016 Elite Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Dec 12 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina Upcoming
35% 48%
—
Dec 13 Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis @ South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell Upcoming
88% 6%
—
Dec 13 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 @ TopGun 2016 Elite Upcoming
6% 89%
—
Dec 13 Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina Upcoming
16% 72%
—
Dec 19 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Dec 19 TopGun 2016 Elite @ IHC 16 Elite Upcoming
70% 18%
—
Dec 19 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina Upcoming
16% 72%
—
Dec 20 South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell @ IHC 16 Elite Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Dec 20 Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis @ TopGun 2016 Elite Upcoming
2% 94%
—
Dec 20 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 Upcoming
64% 23%
—
Dec 26 Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina @ Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis Upcoming
78% 11%
—
Dec 26 Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite Upcoming
19% 69%
—
Dec 27 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 @ Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille Upcoming
40% 46%
—
Jan 02 TopGun 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina Upcoming
55% 30%
—
Jan 02 Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille @ Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis Upcoming
56% 30%
—
Jan 02 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 @ IHC 16 Elite Upcoming
24% 62%
—
Jan 03 Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 Upcoming
68% 19%
—
Jan 03 Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille @ TopGun 2016 Elite Upcoming
6% 89%
—
Jan 03 IHC 16 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis Upcoming
70% 18%
—
Jan 09 IHC 16 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille Upcoming
57% 28%
—
Jan 09 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 @ South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell Upcoming
95% 2%
—
Jan 09 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ TopGun 2016 Elite Upcoming
18% 70%
—
Jan 09 Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina @ Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis Upcoming
78% 11%
—
Jan 10 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 Upcoming
67% 20%
—
Jan 10 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis Upcoming
76% 13%
—
Jan 10 Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina @ IHC 16 Elite Upcoming
51% 32%
—
Jan 10 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 Upcoming
67% 20%
—
Jan 10 Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille @ TopGun 2016 Elite Upcoming
6% 89%
—
Jan 16 South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Jan 17 South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell @ IHC 16 Elite Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Jan 23 Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille @ South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell Upcoming
95% 2%
—
Jan 23 Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina @ Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis Upcoming
78% 11%
—
Jan 23 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ IHC 16 Elite Upcoming
45% 39%
—
Jan 24 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis Upcoming
76% 13%
—
Jan 24 South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 Upcoming
1% 97%
—
Jan 24 IHC 16 Elite @ TopGun 2016 Elite Upcoming
15% 74%
—
Jan 24 Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina @ Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille Upcoming
68% 19%
—
Jan 30 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina Upcoming
33% 51%
—
Jan 30 South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell @ TopGun 2016 Elite Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Jan 30 Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 Upcoming
40% 45%
—
Jan 30 Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis @ IHC 16 Elite Upcoming
14% 74%
—
Jan 31 Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina @ TopGun 2016 Elite Upcoming
25% 60%
—
Jan 31 Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis @ South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell Upcoming
88% 6%
—
Jan 31 IHC 16 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille Upcoming
57% 28%
—
Jan 31 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite Upcoming
19% 69%
—
Feb 06 TopGun 2016 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Feb 06 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina Upcoming
16% 72%
—
Feb 06 IHC 16 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell Upcoming
98% 1%
—
Feb 06 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille Upcoming
64% 23%
—
Feb 07 Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 Upcoming
25% 61%
—
Feb 07 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ TopGun 2016 Elite Upcoming
18% 70%
—
Feb 07 Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina @ IHC 16 Elite Upcoming
51% 32%
—
Feb 07 South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell @ Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille Upcoming
1% 97%
—
Feb 13 TopGun 2016 Elite @ IHC 16 Elite Upcoming
70% 18%
—
Feb 13 Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 Upcoming
40% 45%
—
Feb 14 Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina Upcoming
16% 72%
—
Feb 14 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 @ TopGun 2016 Elite Upcoming
6% 89%
—
Feb 20 Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille @ Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis Upcoming
56% 30%
—
Feb 20 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 @ IHC 16 Elite Upcoming
24% 62%
—
Feb 20 Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina @ South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Feb 20 TopGun 2016 Elite @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite Upcoming
65% 22%
—
Feb 21 Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis @ TopGun 2016 Elite Upcoming
2% 94%
—
Feb 21 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille Upcoming
64% 23%
—
Feb 21 South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 Upcoming
1% 97%
—
Feb 21 IHC 16 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina Upcoming
28% 56%
—
Feb 27 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina Upcoming
33% 51%
—
Feb 27 IHC 16 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis Upcoming
70% 18%
—
Feb 27 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 @ TopGun 2016 Elite Upcoming
6% 89%
—
Feb 27 South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell @ Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille Upcoming
1% 97%
—
Feb 28 TopGun 2016 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2016 Elite Morrell Upcoming
100% 0%
—
Feb 28 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2016 Elite - Boulis Upcoming
76% 13%
—
Feb 28 Boston Jr. Eagles - Spina @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Major 2016 Upcoming
68% 19%
—
Feb 28 Minuteman Flames Bellefeuille @ IHC 16 Elite Upcoming
24% 62%
—