The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum 10 9 0 1 85 10 19 —
2 Team Boston-Grimm 10 7 3 0 56 33 14 —
3 Boston Jr Dogs (White) 8 6 1 1 33 26 13 —
4 Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci 10 5 2 3 44 23 13 —
5 Minuteman Sparks Boudreau 12 4 6 2 29 41 10 —
6 Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI 13 3 9 1 40 91 7 —
7 NE Jr Dogs 10 2 7 1 9 41 5 —
8 Young Guns - Lemire 11 1 9 1 25 56 3 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum 1 98% 68 (63–71)
2 Team Boston-Grimm 2 (2–3) 1% 52 (46–57)
3 Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci 3 (2–4) <1% 50 (42–55)
4 Boston Jr Dogs (White) 4 (3–6) <1% 38 (27–47)
5 Minuteman Sparks Boudreau 5 (4–6) <1% 29 (23–36)
6 Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI 6 (5–7) <1% 22 (16–30)
7 Young Guns - Lemire 7 (6–8) <1% 16 (8–24)
8 NE Jr Dogs 8 (6–8) <1% 13 (8–22)
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Sep 05 Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum @ Team Boston-Grimm 8–3 50/50 —
Sep 05 Minuteman Sparks Boudreau @ Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci 1–1 50/50 —
Sep 06 Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci @ Team Boston-Grimm 3–4 50/50 —
Sep 12 Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci @ Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum 1–3 50/50 —
Sep 12 NE Jr Dogs @ Minuteman Sparks Boudreau 0–2 50/50 —
Sep 12 Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI @ Team Boston-Grimm 1–8 50/50 —
Sep 12 Young Guns - Lemire @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–6 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Minuteman Sparks Boudreau 4–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 Young Guns - Lemire @ NE Jr Dogs 7–0 50/50 —
Sep 13 Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci @ Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI 10–2 50/50 —
Sep 19 Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI @ Young Guns - Lemire 10–3 50/50 —
Sep 19 Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 19 Minuteman Sparks Boudreau @ Team Boston-Grimm 2–4
26% 56%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.82
Sep 20 NE Jr Dogs @ Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI 1–7 50/50 —
Sep 20 Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum @ Minuteman Sparks Boudreau 10–1 50/50 —
Sep 20 Team Boston-Grimm @ Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci 2–4
36% 48%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.07
Sep 26 Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI @ Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum 1–17
2% 96%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.06
Sep 26 Young Guns - Lemire @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–4
10% 81%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.30
Sep 26 Minuteman Sparks Boudreau @ NE Jr Dogs 2–3
67% 17%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
2.58 UPSET
Sep 27 Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI 14–2
99% 0%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.01
Sep 27 Young Guns - Lemire @ NE Jr Dogs 2–3
66% 20%
2.29
Oct 03 Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI @ Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci 4–7
7% 87%
0.20
Oct 03 Team Boston-Grimm @ Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum 1–10
5% 90%
0.14
Oct 03 Minuteman Sparks Boudreau @ Young Guns - Lemire 7–1
42% 40%
1.26
Oct 04 Minuteman Sparks Boudreau @ Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI 3–2
51% 36%
0.98
Oct 04 Young Guns - Lemire @ Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum 0–9
0% 100%
0.00
Oct 04 Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci @ NE Jr Dogs 9–0
87% 5%
0.19
Oct 10 Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI @ Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum 0–8
0% 100%
0.00
Oct 10 Team Boston-Grimm @ NE Jr Dogs 4–0
91% 4%
0.13
Oct 10 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Young Guns - Lemire 5–4
84% 8%
0.25
Oct 10 Minuteman Sparks Boudreau @ Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci 1–3
12% 76%
0.40
Oct 11 Team Boston-Grimm @ Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI 10–2
76% 15%
0.41
Oct 11 Minuteman Sparks Boudreau @ NE Jr Dogs 5–1
72% 13%
0.48
Oct 17 Young Guns - Lemire @ Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci 3–3
3% 93%
4.58 UPSET
Oct 17 Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI @ Minuteman Sparks Boudreau 2–2
25% 61%
2.88 UPSET
Oct 17 NE Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum 0–0
0% 100%
10.97 UPSET
Oct 17 Team Boston-Grimm @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 10–1
41% 43%
1.27
Oct 18 Minuteman Sparks Boudreau @ Team Boston-Grimm 2–10
14% 74%
0.43
Oct 18 Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum @ Young Guns - Lemire 6–1
99% 0%
0.01
Oct 18 Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI @ NE Jr Dogs 3–1
64% 22%
0.66
Oct 24 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Young Guns - Lemire 3–1
67% 20%
—
Oct 25 Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum @ Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci Upcoming
79% 10%
—
Oct 25 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI 7–4
64% 24%
—
Oct 25 Young Guns - Lemire @ Minuteman Sparks Boudreau Upcoming
26% 58%
—
Oct 31 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Boston-Grimm Upcoming
13% 78%
—
Oct 31 Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci @ Young Guns - Lemire Upcoming
86% 7%
—
Nov 01 Team Boston-Grimm @ Young Guns - Lemire Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Nov 01 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ NE Jr Dogs Upcoming
77% 11%
—
Nov 01 Minuteman Sparks Boudreau @ Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum Upcoming
1% 97%
—
Nov 07 Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci @ Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum Upcoming
8% 83%
—
Nov 07 Minuteman Sparks Boudreau @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) Upcoming
29% 54%
—
Nov 07 Young Guns - Lemire @ NE Jr Dogs Upcoming
56% 26%
—
Nov 08 Young Guns - Lemire @ Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI Upcoming
34% 53%
—
Nov 08 NE Jr Dogs @ Minuteman Sparks Boudreau Upcoming
14% 68%
—
Nov 08 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci Upcoming
17% 70%
—
Nov 14 Team Boston-Grimm @ Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Nov 14 NE Jr Dogs @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) Upcoming
9% 80%
—
Nov 15 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI Upcoming
64% 24%
—
Nov 15 NE Jr Dogs @ Team Boston-Grimm Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Nov 21 Minuteman Sparks Boudreau @ Team Boston-Grimm Upcoming
8% 84%
—
Nov 21 NE Jr Dogs @ Young Guns - Lemire Upcoming
22% 61%
—
Nov 21 Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) Upcoming
95% 2%
—
Nov 22 Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Nov 22 Team Boston-Grimm @ Young Guns - Lemire Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Nov 28 Team Boston-Grimm @ Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci Upcoming
44% 41%
—
Nov 29 Team Boston-Grimm @ NE Jr Dogs Upcoming
94% 2%
—
Nov 29 Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci @ Minuteman Sparks Boudreau Upcoming
72% 14%
—
Dec 05 NE Jr Dogs @ Young Guns - Lemire Upcoming
22% 61%
—
Dec 05 Team Boston-Grimm @ Minuteman Sparks Boudreau Upcoming
80% 11%
—
Dec 05 Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) Upcoming
65% 20%
—
Dec 06 Minuteman Sparks Boudreau @ Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI Upcoming
50% 36%
—
Dec 06 NE Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci Upcoming
3% 91%
—
Dec 06 Young Guns - Lemire @ Team Boston-Grimm Upcoming
3% 94%
—
Dec 06 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Dec 12 Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci @ Young Guns - Lemire Upcoming
86% 7%
—
Dec 12 Team Boston-Grimm @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) Upcoming
74% 16%
—
Dec 12 NE Jr Dogs @ Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI Upcoming
18% 69%
—
Dec 13 Young Guns - Lemire @ Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI Upcoming
34% 53%
—
Dec 13 Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci @ Team Boston-Grimm Upcoming
36% 49%
—
Dec 13 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ NE Jr Dogs Upcoming
77% 11%
—
Dec 19 Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI @ Minuteman Sparks Boudreau Upcoming
30% 55%
—
Dec 19 NE Jr Dogs @ Team Boston-Grimm Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Dec 19 Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) Upcoming
65% 20%
—
Dec 19 Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum @ Young Guns - Lemire Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Dec 20 Team Boston-Grimm @ Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci Upcoming
44% 41%
—
Dec 20 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI Upcoming
64% 24%
—
Dec 20 Young Guns - Lemire @ Minuteman Sparks Boudreau Upcoming
26% 58%
—
Dec 20 NE Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Dec 26 Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum @ Team Boston-Grimm Upcoming
82% 10%
—
Dec 27 Minuteman Sparks Boudreau @ Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum Upcoming
1% 97%
—
Jan 02 Minuteman Sparks Boudreau @ Young Guns - Lemire Upcoming
53% 30%
—
Jan 02 Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) Upcoming
95% 2%
—
Jan 03 Team Boston-Grimm @ Minuteman Sparks Boudreau Upcoming
80% 11%
—
Jan 03 Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum @ NE Jr Dogs Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Jan 09 Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci @ Minuteman Sparks Boudreau Upcoming
72% 14%
—
Jan 09 Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI @ Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Jan 09 NE Jr Dogs @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) Upcoming
9% 80%
—
Jan 09 Young Guns - Lemire @ Team Boston-Grimm Upcoming
3% 94%
—
Jan 10 Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI @ Young Guns - Lemire Upcoming
47% 40%
—
Jan 10 Team Boston-Grimm @ NE Jr Dogs Upcoming
94% 2%
—
Jan 10 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Minuteman Sparks Boudreau Upcoming
49% 33%
—
Jan 10 Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum @ Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci Upcoming
79% 10%
—
Jan 16 Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) Upcoming
95% 2%
—
Jan 17 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci Upcoming
17% 70%
—
Jan 23 Minuteman Sparks Boudreau @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) Upcoming
29% 54%
—
Jan 23 Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI @ NE Jr Dogs Upcoming
64% 21%
—
Jan 23 Young Guns - Lemire @ Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Jan 24 Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci @ Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI Upcoming
86% 7%
—
Jan 24 Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum @ Minuteman Sparks Boudreau Upcoming
96% 2%
—
Jan 24 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Boston-Grimm Upcoming
13% 78%
—
Jan 30 Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci @ Young Guns - Lemire Upcoming
86% 7%
—
Jan 30 NE Jr Dogs @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) Upcoming
9% 80%
—
Jan 30 Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI @ Team Boston-Grimm Upcoming
3% 95%
—
Jan 31 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci Upcoming
17% 70%
—
Jan 31 Young Guns - Lemire @ Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI Upcoming
34% 53%
—
Jan 31 Minuteman Sparks Boudreau @ NE Jr Dogs Upcoming
64% 17%
—
Jan 31 Team Boston-Grimm @ Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum Upcoming
8% 85%
—
Feb 06 Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum @ Team Boston-Grimm Upcoming
82% 10%
—
Feb 06 Young Guns - Lemire @ Minuteman Sparks Boudreau Upcoming
26% 58%
—
Feb 06 Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) Upcoming
19% 70%
—
Feb 06 NE Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci Upcoming
3% 91%
—
Feb 07 Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci @ Minuteman Sparks Boudreau Upcoming
72% 14%
—
Feb 07 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Feb 07 Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI @ NE Jr Dogs Upcoming
64% 21%
—
Feb 13 Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI @ Young Guns - Lemire Upcoming
47% 40%
—
Feb 13 Team Boston-Grimm @ Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum Upcoming
8% 85%
—
Feb 13 NE Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci Upcoming
3% 91%
—
Feb 13 Minuteman Sparks Boudreau @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) Upcoming
29% 54%
—
Feb 14 Team Boston-Grimm @ Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Feb 14 NE Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Feb 14 Young Guns - Lemire @ Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci Upcoming
5% 89%
—
Feb 20 Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI @ Minuteman Sparks Boudreau Upcoming
30% 55%
—
Feb 20 Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum @ Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci Upcoming
79% 10%
—
Feb 21 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Young Guns - Lemire Upcoming
67% 20%
—
Feb 21 Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum @ NE Jr Dogs Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Feb 21 Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci @ Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI Upcoming
86% 7%
—
Feb 27 Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum @ Young Guns - Lemire Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Feb 27 NE Jr Dogs @ Minuteman Sparks Boudreau Upcoming
14% 68%
—
Feb 27 Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI @ Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci Upcoming
5% 89%
—
Feb 27 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Boston-Grimm Upcoming
13% 78%
—
Feb 28 Minuteman Sparks Boudreau @ Bay State Waves 2019 Platinum Upcoming
1% 97%
—
Feb 28 Team Merrimack 2019 Scarpaci @ NE Jr Dogs Upcoming
89% 4%
—
Feb 28 Boston Jr Dogs Red - 2019 TI @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) Upcoming
19% 70%
—
Feb 28 Young Guns - Lemire @ Team Boston-Grimm Upcoming
3% 94%
—