Season Review

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS
1 Team Merrimack 35 34 1 0 323 56 68
2 Boston Jr Dogs 35 27 4 4 255 89 58
3 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 33 21 8 4 198 91 46
4 Young Guns 33 14 16 3 163 170 31
5 Providence 35 13 17 5 178 200 31
6 Team Boston 35 9 23 3 135 235 21
7 South Shore Knights 34 5 26 3 115 261 13
8 Minuteman Sparks 34 3 31 0 80 345 6

Game Log

Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Feb 22 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs 0–7
5.7%
89.1%
0.17
Feb 22 Minuteman Sparks @ Providence 4–12
2.2%
95.5%
0.07
Feb 22 Team Boston @ South Shore Knights 4–7
58.8%
29.5%
1.76
Feb 22 Team Merrimack @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 5–1
79.5%
10.7%
0.33
Feb 21 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Providence 9–5
84.1%
8.7%
0.25
Feb 21 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack 3–7
0.0%
99.9%
0.00
Feb 21 Boston Jr Dogs @ Minuteman Sparks 12–0
99.9%
0.0%
0.00
Feb 15 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Boston 4–10
8.9%
84.7%
0.24
Feb 15 Providence @ Boston Jr Dogs 5–11
4.7%
90.9%
0.14
Feb 14 Providence @ Team Merrimack 4–9
0.4%
99.0%
0.02
Feb 08 Minuteman Sparks @ South Shore Knights 5–11
19.0%
70.9%
0.50
Feb 08 Young Guns @ Providence 2–3
49.1%
38.5%
1.38
Feb 08 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–8
1.3%
97.0%
0.04
Feb 07 South Shore Knights @ Young Guns 9–4
6.7%
87.9%
3.89 UPSET
Feb 07 Boston Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 6–5
51.2%
33.0%
0.97
Feb 07 Team Boston @ Team Merrimack 2–10
0.1%
99.8%
0.00
Feb 07 Providence @ Minuteman Sparks 7–4
95.2%
2.4%
0.07
Feb 07 Team Boston @ Team Merrimack 2–9
0.1%
99.8%
0.00
Feb 06 Young Guns @ Team Merrimack 1–11
0.7%
98.2%
0.03
Feb 01 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Team Boston 8–0
93.0%
3.3%
0.10
Feb 01 South Shore Knights @ Providence 5–5
8.0%
86.2%
4.10 UPSET
Feb 01 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Merrimack 1–14
0.0%
100.0%
0.00
Feb 01 Boston Jr Dogs @ Young Guns 10–1
84.5%
8.5%
0.24
Jan 31 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–12
0.8%
98.0%
0.03
Jan 31 Team Merrimack @ Boston Jr Dogs 4–2
78.3%
11.7%
0.35
Jan 31 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 1–2
0.8%
98.0%
0.03
Jan 31 Team Boston @ Providence 6–8
21.3%
68.5%
0.55
Jan 31 Minuteman Sparks @ Young Guns 1–15
1.9%
96.0%
0.06
Jan 25 Providence @ Boston Jr Dogs 3–11
6.2%
88.3%
0.18
Jan 24 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Team Merrimack 0–2
8.3%
83.5%
0.26
Jan 24 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 9–4
96.7%
1.4%
0.05
Jan 24 South Shore Knights @ Young Guns 6–11
6.1%
88.7%
0.17
Jan 24 Providence @ Minuteman Sparks 11–2
94.5%
2.8%
0.08
Jan 18 Boston Jr Dogs @ Minuteman Sparks 9–0
99.8%
0.1%
0.00
Jan 18 Team Merrimack @ Young Guns 12–1
97.5%
1.0%
0.04
Jan 17 Minuteman Sparks @ Young Guns 1–13
2.8%
94.3%
0.08
Jan 17 Team Merrimack @ Boston Jr Dogs 3–0
75.7%
13.9%
0.40
Jan 11 Providence @ South Shore Knights 6–5
87.8%
6.8%
0.19
Jan 11 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Young Guns 8–1
73.8%
15.5%
0.44
Jan 11 Team Merrimack @ Team Boston 8–1
99.8%
0.1%
0.00
Jan 10 Young Guns @ South Shore Knights 5–0
89.2%
5.8%
0.16
Jan 10 Boston Jr Dogs @ Providence 8–1
87.1%
7.0%
0.20
Jan 10 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–6
3.2%
93.3%
0.10
Jan 04 Team Boston @ South Shore Knights 6–6
69.0%
20.4%
3.25 UPSET
Jan 03 Young Guns @ Team Boston 4–3
75.6%
15.3%
0.40
Jan 03 South Shore Knights @ Minuteman Sparks 4–2
55.3%
32.3%
0.86
Dec 28 Team Merrimack @ Providence 8–4
98.8%
0.5%
0.02
Dec 28 Minuteman Sparks @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–3
0.0%
99.9%
0.00
Dec 27 Team Merrimack @ Minuteman Sparks 9–1
100.0%
0.0%
0.00
Dec 27 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Providence 5–3
80.4%
11.1%
0.31
Dec 21 South Shore Knights @ Minuteman Sparks 4–8
63.9%
24.9%
2.01
Dec 21 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 4–7
2.7%
94.0%
0.09
Dec 21 Team Merrimack @ Boston Jr Dogs 10–2
72.5%
16.0%
0.46
Dec 21 Providence @ Minuteman Sparks 15–1
93.0%
3.6%
0.10
Dec 20 Providence @ Team Boston 4–9
73.0%
17.2%
2.54 UPSET
Dec 20 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr Dogs 3–3
27.1%
58.2%
2.77 UPSET
Dec 20 Team Merrimack @ Minuteman Sparks 15–0
100.0%
0.0%
0.00
Dec 14 Team Merrimack @ South Shore Knights 16–1
100.0%
0.0%
0.00
Dec 14 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs 4–4
4.7%
90.5%
4.39 UPSET
Dec 14 Team Boston @ Minuteman Sparks 9–1
72.1%
18.4%
0.47
Dec 13 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack 4–3
16.0%
72.5%
2.65 UPSET
Dec 13 Young Guns @ Providence 6–5
48.7%
38.1%
1.04
Dec 13 Young Guns @ Providence 4–4
48.7%
38.1%
2.92
Dec 13 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 9–2
99.5%
0.2%
0.01
Dec 13 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 1–11
44.4%
42.2%
1.24
Dec 07 Team Boston @ Providence 3–7
13.1%
78.3%
0.35
Dec 07 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Merrimack 0–19
0.0%
100.0%
0.00
Dec 06 Providence @ Team Merrimack 3–7
0.3%
99.1%
0.01
Dec 06 Young Guns @ Minuteman Sparks 6–5
96.3%
1.8%
0.05
Nov 30 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 1–9
1.6%
96.3%
0.05
Nov 30 Team Boston @ Young Guns 2–10
11.1%
81.1%
0.30
Nov 29 Providence @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–11
13.0%
77.2%
0.37
Nov 29 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 8–2
99.1%
0.3%
0.01
Nov 29 South Shore Knights @ Young Guns 1–9
14.4%
76.7%
0.38
Nov 23 Boston Jr Dogs @ South Shore Knights 12–2
99.4%
0.2%
0.01
Nov 23 Team Merrimack @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 9–4
83.5%
7.9%
0.26
Nov 23 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs 4–6
0.2%
99.4%
0.01
Nov 23 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Boston 3–9
25.2%
63.7%
0.65
Nov 22 Providence @ South Shore Knights 10–5
75.7%
14.8%
0.40
Nov 22 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Team Boston 4–3
97.5%
1.0%
0.04
Nov 16 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 1–4
60.1%
27.9%
1.84
Nov 16 Minuteman Sparks @ Providence 1–8
5.5%
90.0%
0.15
Nov 16 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr Dogs 3–3
24.1%
61.1%
2.76 UPSET
Nov 16 Young Guns @ Team Merrimack 2–6
0.3%
99.1%
0.01
Nov 15 Team Merrimack @ Team Boston 15–1
100.0%
0.0%
0.00
Nov 15 Minuteman Sparks @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 1–6
0.2%
99.5%
0.01
Nov 15 Boston Jr Dogs @ South Shore Knights 11–1
99.0%
0.4%
0.01
Nov 15 Providence @ Young Guns 4–4
41.1%
45.3%
2.88
Nov 09 Young Guns @ Team Boston 11–3
76.9%
13.8%
0.38
Nov 09 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Team Merrimack 0–7
13.2%
75.1%
0.41
Nov 08 Team Merrimack @ Providence 9–1
98.3%
0.6%
0.02
Nov 08 Team Boston @ Young Guns 1–11
25.4%
61.7%
0.70
Nov 02 Providence @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–5
6.6%
86.9%
0.20
Nov 02 Young Guns @ Minuteman Sparks 14–3
66.1%
22.6%
0.60
Nov 02 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–8
0.3%
99.2%
0.01
Nov 02 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack 2–6
0.0%
99.9%
0.00
Nov 01 Minuteman Sparks @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–12
0.2%
99.4%
0.01
Nov 01 Boston Jr Dogs @ Young Guns 5–3
98.9%
0.3%
0.02
Nov 01 South Shore Knights @ Providence 2–10
28.6%
59.1%
0.76
Oct 26 Minuteman Sparks @ South Shore Knights 5–11
33.2%
54.7%
0.87
Oct 19 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 0–5
1.9%
95.3%
0.07
Oct 19 Team Boston @ Minuteman Sparks 3–5
67.0%
22.6%
2.15
Oct 19 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs 1–14
0.3%
99.2%
0.01
Oct 18 Team Merrimack @ Young Guns 12–1
99.7%
0.1%
0.00
Oct 18 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 16–3
98.6%
0.5%
0.02
Oct 18 Boston Jr Dogs @ Providence 5–0
97.2%
1.2%
0.04
Oct 12 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2–4
10.1%
80.1%
0.32
Oct 12 Minuteman Sparks @ Boston Jr Dogs 1–12
0.0%
99.9%
0.00
Oct 11 Boston Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–1
62.1%
24.8%
0.69
Oct 11 Providence @ Team Boston 3–3
69.3%
20.4%
3.27 UPSET
Oct 11 Team Merrimack @ Minuteman Sparks 11–2
100.0%
0.0%
0.00
Oct 05 Young Guns @ Team Boston 4–1
32.4%
54.3%
1.63
Oct 05 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ South Shore Knights 4–4
97.6%
0.9%
6.04 UPSET
Oct 05 Team Merrimack @ Providence 9–1
99.7%
0.1%
0.00
Oct 04 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 4–3
0.1%
99.6%
9.52 UPSET
Oct 04 Team Merrimack @ Young Guns 13–2
99.6%
0.1%
0.01
Oct 04 Providence @ South Shore Knights 5–3
81.4%
11.1%
0.30
Sep 28 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Providence 7–2
96.7%
1.3% ⚠
0.05
Sep 28 Team Boston @ South Shore Knights 6–5
52.3%
34.0% ⚠
0.93
Sep 28 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs 1–6
0.3%
99.1% ⚠
0.01
Sep 27 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack 0–13
0.1%
99.6% ⚠
0.01
Sep 27 Boston Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–2
24.0%
64.7% ⚠
3.14 UPSET
Sep 27 Providence @ Team Boston 5–5 50/50 —
Sep 27 Minuteman Sparks @ Young Guns 4–3
2.9%
93.6% ⚠
5.13 UPSET
Sep 21 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–7 50/50 —
Sep 21 Minuteman Sparks @ Boston Jr Dogs 1–14 50/50 —
Sep 20 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ South Shore Knights 10–1 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack 4–7 50/50 —
Sep 20 Providence @ Young Guns 5–4 50/50 —
Sep 14 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Boston 4–7 50/50 —
Sep 14 Team Merrimack @ South Shore Knights 9–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Dogs @ Providence 8–5 50/50 —
Sep 13 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 12–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 Team Boston @ Team Merrimack 0–12 50/50 —
Sep 13 Young Guns @ South Shore Knights 4–3 50/50 —
Sep 07 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–10 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 16–1 50/50 —