The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	GF	GA	PTS	Champ %
1	Team Merrimack	35	34	1	0	289	56	68	100%
2	Boston Jr Dogs	35	27	4	4	241	89	58	0%
3	Bay State Waves 2017 Elite	35	21	8	6	194	91	48	0%
4	Young Guns	35	14	16	5	156	167	33	0%
5	Providence	35	13	17	5	174	200	31	0%
6	Team Boston	35	9	23	3	135	224	21	0%
7	South Shore Knights	35	5	26	4	115	250	14	0%
8	Minuteman Sparks	35	3	31	1	80	307	7	0%

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

#	Team	Proj. Finish	Win Division	Proj. Points
1	Team Merrimack	1	100%	68 (68–68)
2	Boston Jr Dogs	2	<1%	58 (58–58)
3	Bay State Waves 2017 Elite	3	<1%	50 (48–50)
4	Young Guns	4	<1%	31 (31–33)
5	Providence	5	<1%	31 (31–31)
6	Team Boston	6	<1%	21 (21–21)
7	South Shore Knights	7	<1%	15 (13–15)
8	Minuteman Sparks	8	<1%	6 (6–8)

Game Log

Date	Matchup	Score	Pre-game Probability	Surprisal	Flag
Feb 22	Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs	0–7	7% 87%	0.21
Feb 22	Minuteman Sparks @ Providence	4–12	4% 93%	0.10
Feb 22	Team Boston @ South Shore Knights	4–7	57% 31%	1.69
Feb 22	Team Merrimack @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite	5–1	72% 16%	0.48
Feb 21	Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Providence	9–5	80% 11%	0.32
Feb 21	South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack	3–7	0% 100%	0.00
Feb 21	Boston Jr Dogs @ Minuteman Sparks	10–0	99% 0%	0.01
Feb 15	Minuteman Sparks @ Team Boston	4–10	10% 83%	0.28
Feb 15	Providence @ Boston Jr Dogs	5–11	5% 90%	0.14
Feb 14	Providence @ Team Merrimack	4–9	1% 98%	0.03
Feb 08	Minuteman Sparks @ South Shore Knights	5–11	22% 67%	0.58
Feb 08	Young Guns @ Providence	2–3	47% 40%	1.32
Feb 08	Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs	2–8	2% 96%	0.06
Feb 07	South Shore Knights @ Young Guns	9–4	7% 88%	3.87	UPSET
Feb 07	Boston Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite	6–5	46% 37%	1.12
Feb 07	Team Boston @ Team Merrimack	2–10	0% 99%	0.01
Feb 07	Providence @ Minuteman Sparks	7–4	90% 6%	0.15
Feb 07	Team Boston @ Team Merrimack	2–9	0% 100%	0.01
Feb 06	Young Guns @ Team Merrimack	1–11	2% 96%	0.06
Feb 01	Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Team Boston	8–0	88% 6%	0.18
Feb 01	South Shore Knights @ Providence	5–5	8% 86%	4.04	UPSET
Feb 01	Minuteman Sparks @ Team Merrimack	1–11	0% 100%	0.00
Feb 01	Boston Jr Dogs @ Young Guns	10–1	76% 14%	0.39
Jan 31	South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite	2–12	1% 96%	0.05
Jan 31	Team Merrimack @ Boston Jr Dogs	4–2	70% 17%	0.51
Jan 31	South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite	1–2	1% 97%	0.04
Jan 31	Team Boston @ Providence	6–8	24% 66%	0.60
Jan 31	Minuteman Sparks @ Young Guns	1–11	3% 94%	0.08
Jan 25	Providence @ Boston Jr Dogs	3–11	7% 88%	0.19
Jan 24	Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Team Merrimack	0–2	11% 78%	0.35
Jan 24	Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Boston	9–4	93% 4%	0.11
Jan 24	South Shore Knights @ Young Guns	6–11	6% 89%	0.17
Jan 24	Providence @ Minuteman Sparks	11–2	88% 6%	0.18
Jan 18	Boston Jr Dogs @ Minuteman Sparks	9–0	99% 0%	0.01
Jan 18	Team Merrimack @ Young Guns	11–1	92% 4%	0.12
Jan 17	Minuteman Sparks @ Young Guns	1–11	4% 93%	0.11
Jan 17	Team Merrimack @ Boston Jr Dogs	3–0	68% 19%	0.55
Jan 11	Providence @ South Shore Knights	6–5	82% 11%	0.28
Jan 11	Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Young Guns	8–1	65% 22%	0.63
Jan 11	Team Merrimack @ Team Boston	8–1	99% 0%	0.02
Jan 10	Boston Jr Dogs @ Providence	8–1	82% 10%	0.28
Jan 10	Young Guns @ South Shore Knights	5–0	86% 7%	0.21
Jan 10	Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite	2–6	5% 90%	0.14
Jan 04	Team Boston @ South Shore Knights	6–6	68% 21%	3.19	UPSET
Jan 03	Young Guns @ Team Boston	4–3	69% 20%	0.53
Jan 03	South Shore Knights @ Minuteman Sparks	4–2	46% 40%	1.11
Dec 28	Team Merrimack @ Providence	8–4	97% 2%	0.05
Dec 28	Minuteman Sparks @ Boston Jr Dogs	2–3	0% 100%	0.01
Dec 27	Team Merrimack @ Minuteman Sparks	9–1	100% 0%	0.00
Dec 27	Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Providence	5–3	76% 14%	0.39
Dec 21	South Shore Knights @ Minuteman Sparks	4–8	54% 32%	1.63
Dec 21	Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite	4–7	4% 91%	0.14
Dec 21	Team Merrimack @ Boston Jr Dogs	10–2	63% 23%	0.67
Dec 21	Providence @ Minuteman Sparks	11–1	87% 7%	0.20
Dec 20	Providence @ Team Boston	4–9	63% 25%	1.99
Dec 20	Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr Dogs	3–3	28% 57%	2.73	UPSET
Dec 20	Team Merrimack @ Minuteman Sparks	10–0	100% 0%	0.00
Dec 14	Team Merrimack @ South Shore Knights	11–1	100% 0%	0.00
Dec 14	Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs	4–4	8% 85%	3.82	UPSET
Dec 14	Team Boston @ Minuteman Sparks	9–1	67% 22%	0.58
Dec 13	Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack	4–3	19% 69%	2.40
Dec 13	Young Guns @ Providence	6–5	50% 37%	1.01
Dec 13	Young Guns @ Providence	4–4	50% 36%	2.90
Dec 13	South Shore Knights @ Team Boston	1–11	33% 54%	0.90
Dec 13	Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks	9–2	98% 1%	0.03
Dec 07	Team Boston @ Providence	3–7	16% 74%	0.43
Dec 07	Minuteman Sparks @ Team Merrimack	0–10	0% 100%	0.00
Dec 06	Providence @ Team Merrimack	3–7	1% 98%	0.03
Dec 06	Young Guns @ Minuteman Sparks	6–5	93% 4%	0.11
Nov 30	South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite	1–9	2% 95%	0.07
Nov 30	Team Boston @ Young Guns	2–10	13% 78%	0.35
Nov 29	Providence @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite	2–11	14% 76%	0.40
Nov 29	Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Boston	8–2	96% 2%	0.05
Nov 29	South Shore Knights @ Young Guns	1–9	11% 80%	0.32
Nov 23	Boston Jr Dogs @ South Shore Knights	12–2	97% 1%	0.04
Nov 23	Team Merrimack @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite	9–4	75% 13%	0.42
Nov 23	South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs	4–6	0% 99%	0.02
Nov 23	Minuteman Sparks @ Team Boston	3–9	21% 68%	0.55
Nov 22	Providence @ South Shore Knights	10–5	72% 17%	0.46
Nov 22	Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Team Boston	4–3	92% 4%	0.12
Nov 16	South Shore Knights @ Team Boston	1–4	42% 44%	1.18
Nov 16	Minuteman Sparks @ Providence	1–8	7% 88%	0.19
Nov 16	Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr Dogs	3–3	25% 59%	2.69	UPSET
Nov 16	Young Guns @ Team Merrimack	2–6	1% 97%	0.05
Nov 15	Boston Jr Dogs @ South Shore Knights	11–1	97% 1%	0.05
Nov 15	Minuteman Sparks @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite	1–6	1% 98%	0.02
Nov 15	Team Merrimack @ Team Boston	11–1	100% 0%	0.01
Nov 15	Providence @ Young Guns	4–4	32% 54%	2.89	UPSET
Nov 09	Young Guns @ Team Boston	11–3	67% 21%	0.57
Nov 09	Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Team Merrimack	0–7	16% 72%	0.48
Nov 08	Team Merrimack @ Providence	9–1	96% 2%	0.07
Nov 08	Team Boston @ Young Guns	1–11	28% 58%	0.78
Nov 02	Young Guns @ Minuteman Sparks	13–3	64% 23%	0.64
Nov 02	Providence @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite	2–5	9% 82%	0.28
Nov 02	Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs	2–8	2% 96%	0.05
Nov 02	South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack	2–6	0% 100%	0.00
Nov 01	Minuteman Sparks @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite	2–12	1% 97%	0.04
Nov 01	Boston Jr Dogs @ Young Guns	5–3	93% 3%	0.10
Nov 01	South Shore Knights @ Providence	2–10	24% 64%	0.63
Oct 26	Minuteman Sparks @ South Shore Knights	5–11	36% 50%	1.01
Oct 19	Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite	0–5	7% 85%	0.23
Oct 19	Team Boston @ Minuteman Sparks	3–5	66% 23%	2.15
Oct 19	South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs	1–11	1% 98%	0.03
Oct 18	Team Merrimack @ Young Guns	11–1	96% 2%	0.06
Oct 18	Boston Jr Dogs @ Providence	5–0	91% 4%	0.13
Oct 18	Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks	13–3	93% 3%	0.11
Oct 12	Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Team Merrimack	2–4	12% 77%	0.37
Oct 12	Minuteman Sparks @ Boston Jr Dogs	1–11	0% 99%	0.02
Oct 11	Boston Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite	2–1	54% 32%	0.89
Oct 11	Providence @ Team Boston	3–3	52% 36%	2.97
Oct 11	Team Merrimack @ Minuteman Sparks	11–2	100% 0%	0.01
Oct 05	Young Guns @ Team Boston	4–1	33% 52%	1.59
Oct 05	Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ South Shore Knights	4–4	92% 3%	4.41	UPSET
Oct 05	Team Merrimack @ Providence	9–1	96% 2%	0.05
Oct 04	Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite	4–3	3% 93%	5.05	UPSET
Oct 04	Team Merrimack @ Young Guns	12–2	89% 5%	0.16
Oct 04	Providence @ South Shore Knights	5–3	78% 13%	0.35
Sep 28	Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Providence	7–2	80% 11%	0.33
Sep 28	Team Boston @ South Shore Knights	6–5	61% 26%	0.71
Sep 28	Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs	1–6	7% 86%	0.21
Sep 27	South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack	0–10	0% 98% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	0.02
Sep 27	Boston Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite	2–2	36% 50% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	2.87
Sep 27	Providence @ Team Boston	5–5	50/50	—
Sep 27	Minuteman Sparks @ Young Guns	4–3	9% 82% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	3.49	UPSET
Sep 21	Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite	2–7	16% 68% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	0.55
Sep 21	Minuteman Sparks @ Boston Jr Dogs	1–11	1% 98% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	0.03
Sep 20	Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ South Shore Knights	10–1	84% 7% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	0.25
Sep 20	Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack	4–7	50/50	—
Sep 20	Providence @ Young Guns	5–4	50/50	—
Sep 14	Minuteman Sparks @ Team Boston	4–7	50/50	—
Sep 14	Team Merrimack @ South Shore Knights	9–1	50/50	—
Sep 13	Boston Jr Dogs @ Providence	8–5	50/50	—
Sep 13	Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks	11–1	50/50	—
Sep 13	Team Boston @ Team Merrimack	0–10	50/50	—
Sep 13	Young Guns @ South Shore Knights	4–3	50/50	—
Sep 07	South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs	2–10	50/50	—
Sep 06	Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Boston	11–1	50/50	—
Aug 01	Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Young Guns	0–0	50/50	—
Aug 01	Minuteman Sparks @ South Shore Knights	0–0	50/50	—
Aug 01	Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite	0–0	50/50	—