The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 IHC 2017 Elite 11 11 0 0 122 13 22 —
2 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 2017 Elite 8 8 0 0 83 9 16 —
3 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 8 5 3 0 40 31 10 —
4 Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite 10 5 5 0 53 43 10 —
5 Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins 9 4 4 1 45 54 9 —
6 Top Gun 2017 Elite 5 2 3 0 21 30 4 —
7 MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite 8 1 6 1 23 93 3 —
8 Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen 9 1 8 0 33 59 2 —
9 South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald 10 1 9 0 16 104 2 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 IHC 2017 Elite 1 100% 69 (66–72)
2 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 2 (2–3) <1% 51 (45–56)
3 Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite 3 (2–4) <1% 46 (40–52)
4 Top Gun 2017 Elite 4 (3–6) <1% 37 (30–45)
5 Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins 5 (4–6) <1% 34 (29–39)
6 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 2017 Elite 6 (5–6) <1% 29 (28–31)
7 Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen 7 (7–8) <1% 20 (13–26)
8 MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite 8 (7–9) <1% 11 (7–17)
9 South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald 9 (8–9) <1% 6 (3–11)
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Sep 05 Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite @ IHC 2017 Elite 1–3 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins @ IHC 2017 Elite 3–14 50/50 —
Sep 12 IHC 2017 Elite @ Top Gun 2017 Elite 10–1 50/50 —
Sep 12 South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald @ MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite 7–5 50/50 —
Sep 12 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 2017 Elite 2–10 50/50 —
Sep 12 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 2017 Elite 1–6 50/50 —
Sep 12 Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen 6–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 2017 Elite 1–20 50/50 —
Sep 13 MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 2017 Elite 2–12 50/50 —
Sep 13 Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 1–10 50/50 —
Sep 19 Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald 9–2 50/50 —
Sep 19 Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins @ MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite 7–7 50/50 —
Sep 19 IHC 2017 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen 7–1 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite 6–3
32% 55%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.67
Sep 20 Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen @ Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins 4–5 50/50 —
Sep 20 South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald @ IHC 2017 Elite 1–19 50/50 —
Sep 26 South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald @ Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen 1–12
28% 61%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.71
Sep 26 IHC 2017 Elite @ Top Gun 2017 Elite 10–2 50/50 —
Sep 27 Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins @ Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen 8–4
33% 55%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.60
Sep 27 MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald 4–1
61% 29%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.71
Oct 03 Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen @ Top Gun 2017 Elite 3–10 50/50 —
Oct 03 Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 2017 Elite 1–6
4% 92%
0.12
Oct 03 Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 2017 Elite 2–3
4% 92%
0.12
Oct 04 Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite 6–8
15% 75%
0.41
Oct 04 Top Gun 2017 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald 6–3
95% 3%
0.08
Oct 10 South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 2017 Elite 0–11
0% 100%
0.00
Oct 10 Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 1–4
10% 83%
0.26
Oct 10 South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 2017 Elite 0–15
0% 100%
0.00
Oct 10 Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite @ IHC 2017 Elite 1–8
7% 88%
0.19
Oct 11 MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins 1–9
13% 80%
0.32
Oct 11 Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite 3–7
12% 79%
0.33
Oct 11 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 @ IHC 2017 Elite 2–7
6% 88%
0.18
Oct 11 South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 1–11
1% 98%
0.03
Oct 17 IHC 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins 10–1
98% 1%
0.03
Oct 18 MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite 3–15
3% 95%
0.08
Oct 18 Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins @ Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen 5–2
54% 34%
0.90
Oct 18 Top Gun 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 2–4
16% 75%
0.42
Oct 18 South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald @ IHC 2017 Elite 0–12
0% 100%
0.00
Oct 24 IHC 2017 Elite @ MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite Upcoming
100% 0%
—
Oct 24 IHC 2017 Elite @ MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite 22–0
100% 0%
—
Oct 31 Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen @ MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite Upcoming
73% 18%
—
Oct 31 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 @ South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald Upcoming
98% 1%
—
Oct 31 Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite Upcoming
15% 76%
—
Nov 01 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 @ Top Gun 2017 Elite Upcoming
68% 21%
—
Nov 01 IHC 2017 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald Upcoming
100% 0%
—
Nov 01 Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen @ Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins Upcoming
25% 64%
—
Nov 07 IHC 2017 Elite @ MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite Upcoming
100% 0%
—
Nov 07 South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Nov 07 Top Gun 2017 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen Upcoming
63% 26%
—
Nov 08 Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen Upcoming
83% 10%
—
Nov 08 Top Gun 2017 Elite @ MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite Upcoming
89% 6%
—
Nov 08 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 @ IHC 2017 Elite Upcoming
5% 89%
—
Nov 14 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 2017 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Nov 14 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 @ MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite Upcoming
97% 1%
—
Nov 14 Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins @ IHC 2017 Elite Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Nov 14 Top Gun 2017 Elite @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite Upcoming
19% 70%
—
Nov 14 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 2017 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Nov 15 Top Gun 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 Upcoming
17% 73%
—
Nov 15 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 2017 Elite @ IHC 2017 Elite Upcoming
33% 52%
—
Nov 15 MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Nov 15 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 2017 Elite @ IHC 2017 Elite Upcoming
33% 52%
—
Nov 21 Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen @ MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite Upcoming
73% 18%
—
Nov 21 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 @ Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins Upcoming
73% 17%
—
Nov 21 IHC 2017 Elite @ Top Gun 2017 Elite Upcoming
97% 1%
—
Nov 22 Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 Upcoming
6% 88%
—
Nov 22 Top Gun 2017 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald Upcoming
93% 3%
—
Nov 22 IHC 2017 Elite @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite Upcoming
89% 6%
—
Nov 28 Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen @ South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald Upcoming
83% 10%
—
Nov 29 Top Gun 2017 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen Upcoming
63% 26%
—
Nov 29 Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins @ South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Dec 05 South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald @ Top Gun 2017 Elite Upcoming
2% 95%
—
Dec 05 Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins @ MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite Upcoming
86% 8%
—
Dec 05 Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 Upcoming
36% 50%
—
Dec 06 South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald @ MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite Upcoming
24% 66%
—
Dec 06 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 @ Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins Upcoming
73% 17%
—
Dec 06 Top Gun 2017 Elite @ IHC 2017 Elite Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Dec 12 Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite @ Top Gun 2017 Elite Upcoming
65% 24%
—
Dec 12 South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald @ Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins Upcoming
3% 94%
—
Dec 12 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 @ MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite Upcoming
97% 1%
—
Dec 13 Top Gun 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins Upcoming
46% 41%
—
Dec 13 MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Dec 13 Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen @ South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald Upcoming
83% 10%
—
Dec 19 Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen @ Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins Upcoming
25% 64%
—
Dec 19 MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald Upcoming
59% 29%
—
Dec 19 Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 Upcoming
36% 50%
—
Dec 20 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 @ South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald Upcoming
98% 1%
—
Dec 20 MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite @ IHC 2017 Elite Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Dec 20 Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite Upcoming
15% 76%
—
Dec 26 Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite @ MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite Upcoming
97% 2%
—
Dec 26 Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 Upcoming
13% 78%
—
Dec 26 IHC 2017 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Dec 27 IHC 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 Upcoming
86% 7%
—
Dec 27 Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite Upcoming
8% 86%
—
Jan 02 IHC 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins Upcoming
98% 1%
—
Jan 02 South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald @ Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen Upcoming
7% 86%
—
Jan 02 Top Gun 2017 Elite @ MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite Upcoming
89% 6%
—
Jan 02 Top Gun 2017 Elite @ MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite Upcoming
89% 6%
—
Jan 03 Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins @ Top Gun 2017 Elite Upcoming
35% 53%
—
Jan 03 MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen Upcoming
14% 78%
—
Jan 03 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 @ South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald Upcoming
98% 1%
—
Jan 03 Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite @ IHC 2017 Elite Upcoming
4% 91%
—
Jan 09 Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite @ Top Gun 2017 Elite Upcoming
65% 24%
—
Jan 09 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 @ MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite Upcoming
97% 1%
—
Jan 09 IHC 2017 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Jan 09 South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald @ Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins Upcoming
3% 94%
—
Jan 10 MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins Upcoming
6% 90%
—
Jan 10 South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Jan 10 IHC 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 Upcoming
86% 7%
—
Jan 16 Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen @ Top Gun 2017 Elite Upcoming
21% 69%
—
Jan 17 South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald @ Top Gun 2017 Elite Upcoming
2% 95%
—
Jan 23 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 @ Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen Upcoming
85% 9%
—
Jan 23 Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins @ Top Gun 2017 Elite Upcoming
35% 53%
—
Jan 23 Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite @ MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite Upcoming
97% 2%
—
Jan 24 Top Gun 2017 Elite @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite Upcoming
19% 70%
—
Jan 24 Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen @ IHC 2017 Elite Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Jan 24 MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins Upcoming
6% 90%
—
Jan 30 Top Gun 2017 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald Upcoming
93% 3%
—
Jan 30 MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen Upcoming
14% 78%
—
Jan 30 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite Upcoming
44% 42%
—
Jan 31 South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Jan 31 Top Gun 2017 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen Upcoming
63% 26%
—
Jan 31 MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite @ IHC 2017 Elite Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Jan 31 Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins Upcoming
70% 19%
—
Feb 06 Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins @ South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Feb 06 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 @ Top Gun 2017 Elite Upcoming
68% 21%
—
Feb 06 Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite Upcoming
8% 86%
—
Feb 06 Top Gun 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 Upcoming
17% 73%
—
Feb 07 Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 Upcoming
6% 88%
—
Feb 07 South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Feb 07 Top Gun 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins Upcoming
46% 41%
—
Feb 13 Top Gun 2017 Elite @ IHC 2017 Elite Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Feb 13 South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald @ MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite Upcoming
24% 66%
—
Feb 13 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins Upcoming
97% 2%
—
Feb 13 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins Upcoming
97% 2%
—
Feb 14 Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins @ IHC 2017 Elite Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Feb 14 MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Feb 14 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 2017 Elite @ Top Gun 2017 Elite Upcoming
95% 2%
—
Feb 14 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 2017 Elite @ Top Gun 2017 Elite Upcoming
95% 2%
—
Feb 20 Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald Upcoming
98% 1%
—
Feb 20 Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen @ IHC 2017 Elite Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Feb 20 Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 Upcoming
13% 78%
—
Feb 21 IHC 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 Upcoming
86% 7%
—
Feb 21 Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen @ South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald Upcoming
83% 10%
—
Feb 21 Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins Upcoming
70% 19%
—
Feb 27 Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite @ Top Gun 2017 Elite Upcoming
65% 24%
—
Feb 27 IHC 2017 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald Upcoming
100% 0%
—
Feb 27 MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Feb 28 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Squirt Minor 2017 @ Providence Capitals 2017 Elite - Larsen Upcoming
85% 9%
—
Feb 28 IHC 2017 Elite @ Bay State Breakers 2017 Elite Upcoming
89% 6%
—
Feb 28 MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite @ Top Gun 2017 Elite Upcoming
4% 92%
—
Feb 28 Boston Jr. Eagles 2017 Elite Collins @ South Shore Kings 2017 Elite MacDonald Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Feb 28 MassConn United Hockey Club 2017 Elite @ Top Gun 2017 Elite Upcoming
4% 92%
—