The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo 11 7 4 0 78 45 14 —
2 IHC West - McCrensky 9 6 2 1 41 23 13 —
3 Connecticut Jr Rangers 8 6 2 0 51 20 12 —
4 Boch Blazer - Tanguay 8 6 2 0 49 22 12 —
5 Northeast Generals McCarthy 5 4 1 0 24 13 8 —
6 Shamrocks - Makin 8 2 5 1 29 42 5 —
7 Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia 8 1 7 0 26 56 2 —
8 Northeast Generals Manley 9 0 9 0 7 84 0 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Connecticut Jr Rangers 2 (1–4) 33% 52 (42–60)
2 Northeast Generals McCarthy 2 (1–4) 35% 52 (41–60)
3 Boch Blazer - Tanguay 3 (1–6) 21% 48 (35–58)
4 IHC West - McCrensky 4 (2–5) 7% 45 (35–53)
5 South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo 4 (2–6) 4% 41 (33–51)
6 Shamrocks - Makin 6 (4–7) <1% 29 (19–42)
7 Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia 7 (6–7) <1% 19 (12–31)
8 Northeast Generals Manley 8 <1% 2 (0–5)
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 03 South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo @ Connecticut Jr Rangers Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 03 Connecticut Jr Rangers @ IHC West - McCrensky 0–3 50/50 —
Aug 03 Shamrocks - Makin @ Connecticut Jr Rangers Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 03 Connecticut Jr Rangers @ Boch Blazer - Tanguay Upcoming 50/50 —
Sep 05 Shamrocks - Makin @ IHC West - McCrensky 0–0 50/50 —
Sep 12 South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo @ Northeast Generals Manley 12–3 50/50 —
Sep 12 Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia @ Connecticut Jr Rangers 2–10 50/50 —
Sep 12 Boch Blazer - Tanguay @ Connecticut Jr Rangers 3–10 50/50 —
Sep 13 South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo @ Northeast Generals McCarthy 4–5 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boch Blazer - Tanguay @ Northeast Generals Manley 9–0 50/50 —
Sep 19 IHC West - McCrensky @ Shamrocks - Makin 6–4 50/50 —
Sep 19 Boch Blazer - Tanguay @ Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia 5–2 50/50 —
Sep 19 Northeast Generals Manley @ Connecticut Jr Rangers 1–10 50/50 —
Sep 19 Northeast Generals Manley @ Connecticut Jr Rangers 0–7
0% 99%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.01
Sep 20 Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia @ Shamrocks - Makin 9–1 50/50 —
Sep 20 IHC West - McCrensky @ South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo 4–9 50/50 —
Sep 27 Northeast Generals Manley @ IHC West - McCrensky 1–10
6% 87%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.20
Sep 27 Northeast Generals McCarthy @ Shamrocks - Makin 6–3 50/50 —
Oct 03 South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo @ Shamrocks - Makin 10–6
88% 7%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.19
Oct 03 IHC West - McCrensky @ South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo 3–1
32% 56%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.65
Oct 04 Connecticut Jr Rangers @ Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia 7–4
79% 13%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.35
Oct 04 Northeast Generals Manley @ South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo 0–12
1% 99%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.02
Oct 04 Northeast Generals McCarthy @ IHC West - McCrensky 6–2 50/50 —
Oct 10 South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo @ Boch Blazer - Tanguay 1–8
59% 30%
1.74
Oct 11 Northeast Generals Manley @ Boch Blazer - Tanguay 0–9
0% 99%
0.02
Oct 17 South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo @ Northeast Generals McCarthy 2–7
32% 56%
0.82
Oct 17 IHC West - McCrensky @ Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia 8–1
47% 38%
1.09
Oct 17 Boch Blazer - Tanguay @ Connecticut Jr Rangers 2–1
32% 54%
1.67
Oct 17 Northeast Generals Manley @ Shamrocks - Makin 1–10
6% 88%
0.18
Oct 17 Boch Blazer - Tanguay @ Connecticut Jr Rangers 5–6
35% 49%
1.03
Oct 18 IHC West - McCrensky @ Northeast Generals Manley 5–1
98% 1%
0.04
Oct 18 Northeast Generals McCarthy @ Shamrocks - Makin 0–2
85% 8%
3.57 UPSET
Oct 18 South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo @ Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia 10–3
65% 25%
0.61
Oct 24 Shamrocks - Makin @ South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo 3–10
16% 76%
—
Oct 24 Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia @ Boch Blazer - Tanguay 2–8
8% 85%
—
Oct 25 South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo @ Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia 7–3
78% 14%
—
Oct 31 Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia @ Northeast Generals McCarthy Upcoming
8% 85%
—
Nov 01 Boch Blazer - Tanguay @ Shamrocks - Makin Upcoming
74% 15%
—
Nov 01 Northeast Generals McCarthy @ Northeast Generals Manley Upcoming
98% 0%
—
Nov 07 Northeast Generals Manley @ Shamrocks - Makin Upcoming
2% 94%
—
Nov 07 Northeast Generals McCarthy @ South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo Upcoming
53% 34%
—
Nov 07 Connecticut Jr Rangers @ IHC West - McCrensky Upcoming
51% 33%
—
Nov 07 Connecticut Jr Rangers @ IHC West - McCrensky Upcoming
51% 33%
—
Nov 07 Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia @ Boch Blazer - Tanguay Upcoming
8% 85%
—
Nov 08 Boch Blazer - Tanguay @ Northeast Generals McCarthy Upcoming
38% 46%
—
Nov 08 Northeast Generals Manley @ South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Nov 08 IHC West - McCrensky @ Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia Upcoming
72% 17%
—
Nov 14 Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia @ Connecticut Jr Rangers Upcoming
6% 89%
—
Nov 14 Northeast Generals Manley @ Boch Blazer - Tanguay Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Nov 14 Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia @ Connecticut Jr Rangers Upcoming
6% 89%
—
Nov 15 Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia @ South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo Upcoming
11% 83%
—
Nov 21 Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia @ Northeast Generals McCarthy Upcoming
8% 85%
—
Nov 21 IHC West - McCrensky @ South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo Upcoming
42% 45%
—
Nov 21 Boch Blazer - Tanguay @ Shamrocks - Makin Upcoming
74% 15%
—
Nov 22 Boch Blazer - Tanguay @ IHC West - McCrensky Upcoming
47% 36%
—
Nov 22 Shamrocks - Makin @ Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia Upcoming
47% 40%
—
Nov 22 Boch Blazer - Tanguay @ IHC West - McCrensky Upcoming
47% 36%
—
Nov 28 Shamrocks - Makin @ IHC West - McCrensky Upcoming
18% 70%
—
Nov 28 Northeast Generals McCarthy @ Boch Blazer - Tanguay Upcoming
40% 43%
—
Nov 29 Shamrocks - Makin @ Northeast Generals Manley Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Nov 29 Boch Blazer - Tanguay @ IHC West - McCrensky Upcoming
47% 36%
—
Dec 05 Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia @ Northeast Generals Manley Upcoming
91% 4%
—
Dec 05 Northeast Generals McCarthy @ South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo Upcoming
53% 34%
—
Dec 06 Northeast Generals McCarthy @ Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia Upcoming
81% 11%
—
Dec 06 Shamrocks - Makin @ South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo Upcoming
16% 76%
—
Dec 06 Northeast Generals Manley @ IHC West - McCrensky Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Dec 12 Northeast Generals Manley @ Northeast Generals McCarthy Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Dec 12 IHC West - McCrensky @ Connecticut Jr Rangers Upcoming
28% 57%
—
Dec 12 IHC West - McCrensky @ Connecticut Jr Rangers Upcoming
28% 57%
—
Dec 12 Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia @ South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo Upcoming
11% 83%
—
Dec 12 Shamrocks - Makin @ Boch Blazer - Tanguay Upcoming
12% 79%
—
Dec 13 Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia @ IHC West - McCrensky Upcoming
14% 77%
—
Dec 13 Boch Blazer - Tanguay @ Northeast Generals McCarthy Upcoming
38% 46%
—
Dec 13 Northeast Generals Manley @ Shamrocks - Makin Upcoming
2% 94%
—
Dec 19 South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo @ Boch Blazer - Tanguay Upcoming
30% 58%
—
Dec 19 Northeast Generals McCarthy @ Connecticut Jr Rangers Upcoming
36% 48%
—
Dec 19 Northeast Generals Manley @ IHC West - McCrensky Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Dec 19 Northeast Generals McCarthy @ Connecticut Jr Rangers Upcoming
36% 48%
—
Dec 19 Shamrocks - Makin @ Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia Upcoming
47% 40%
—
Dec 20 South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo @ IHC West - McCrensky Upcoming
38% 48%
—
Dec 20 Shamrocks - Makin @ Northeast Generals McCarthy Upcoming
12% 78%
—
Dec 20 Northeast Generals Manley @ Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia Upcoming
3% 94%
—
Dec 26 Northeast Generals Manley @ Northeast Generals McCarthy Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Dec 26 IHC West - McCrensky @ Shamrocks - Makin Upcoming
65% 22%
—
Dec 26 Connecticut Jr Rangers @ Boch Blazer - Tanguay Upcoming
44% 41%
—
Dec 27 Northeast Generals Manley @ South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Dec 27 Northeast Generals McCarthy @ IHC West - McCrensky Upcoming
47% 35%
—
Dec 27 Boch Blazer - Tanguay @ Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia Upcoming
81% 11%
—
Jan 02 IHC West - McCrensky @ Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia Upcoming
72% 17%
—
Jan 02 Shamrocks - Makin @ Boch Blazer - Tanguay Upcoming
12% 79%
—
Jan 03 Shamrocks - Makin @ Northeast Generals McCarthy Upcoming
12% 78%
—
Jan 09 Shamrocks - Makin @ Connecticut Jr Rangers Upcoming
10% 83%
—
Jan 09 Northeast Generals McCarthy @ Northeast Generals Manley Upcoming
98% 0%
—
Jan 09 Shamrocks - Makin @ Connecticut Jr Rangers Upcoming
10% 83%
—
Jan 10 Boch Blazer - Tanguay @ South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo Upcoming
52% 36%
—
Jan 10 IHC West - McCrensky @ Northeast Generals McCarthy Upcoming
31% 52%
—
Jan 10 Shamrocks - Makin @ Northeast Generals Manley Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Jan 16 Northeast Generals McCarthy @ Shamrocks - Makin Upcoming
74% 15%
—
Jan 16 Northeast Generals Manley @ Boch Blazer - Tanguay Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Jan 17 South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo @ Shamrocks - Makin Upcoming
70% 20%
—
Jan 23 IHC West - McCrensky @ Northeast Generals Manley Upcoming
97% 1%
—
Jan 23 South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo @ Connecticut Jr Rangers Upcoming
25% 64%
—
Jan 23 South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo @ Connecticut Jr Rangers Upcoming
25% 64%
—
Jan 23 Northeast Generals McCarthy @ Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia Upcoming
81% 11%
—
Jan 23 Shamrocks - Makin @ Boch Blazer - Tanguay Upcoming
12% 79%
—
Jan 24 Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia @ Northeast Generals Manley Upcoming
91% 4%
—
Jan 30 Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia @ Shamrocks - Makin Upcoming
34% 54%
—
Jan 30 Connecticut Jr Rangers @ Northeast Generals McCarthy Upcoming
42% 42%
—
Jan 30 Connecticut Jr Rangers @ Northeast Generals Manley Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Jan 30 IHC West - McCrensky @ Boch Blazer - Tanguay Upcoming
32% 52%
—
Jan 31 South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo @ IHC West - McCrensky Upcoming
38% 48%
—
Jan 31 Connecticut Jr Rangers @ Northeast Generals McCarthy Upcoming
42% 42%
—
Jan 31 Connecticut Jr Rangers @ Northeast Generals Manley Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Jan 31 Boch Blazer - Tanguay @ Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia Upcoming
81% 11%
—
Feb 06 South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo @ Northeast Generals Manley Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Feb 06 IHC West - McCrensky @ Shamrocks - Makin Upcoming
65% 22%
—
Feb 06 Connecticut Jr Rangers @ Northeast Generals McCarthy Upcoming
42% 42%
—
Feb 06 Connecticut Jr Rangers @ Northeast Generals Manley Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Feb 06 Northeast Generals McCarthy @ Boch Blazer - Tanguay Upcoming
40% 43%
—
Feb 07 Connecticut Jr Rangers @ Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia Upcoming
85% 8%
—
Feb 07 IHC West - McCrensky @ Northeast Generals McCarthy Upcoming
31% 52%
—
Feb 07 Boch Blazer - Tanguay @ South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo Upcoming
52% 36%
—
Feb 07 Connecticut Jr Rangers @ Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia Upcoming
85% 8%
—
Feb 13 South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo @ Boch Blazer - Tanguay Upcoming
30% 58%
—
Feb 13 Shamrocks - Makin @ Northeast Generals McCarthy Upcoming
12% 78%
—
Feb 13 Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia @ Northeast Generals Manley Upcoming
91% 4%
—
Feb 14 Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia @ Northeast Generals McCarthy Upcoming
8% 85%
—
Feb 14 Boch Blazer - Tanguay @ Northeast Generals Manley Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Feb 14 South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo @ Shamrocks - Makin Upcoming
70% 20%
—
Feb 20 South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo @ Northeast Generals McCarthy Upcoming
29% 59%
—
Feb 20 Shamrocks - Makin @ Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia Upcoming
47% 40%
—
Feb 20 IHC West - McCrensky @ Boch Blazer - Tanguay Upcoming
32% 52%
—
Feb 21 Connecticut Jr Rangers @ South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo Upcoming
58% 31%
—
Feb 21 Connecticut Jr Rangers @ South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo Upcoming
58% 31%
—
Feb 21 Northeast Generals McCarthy @ Northeast Generals Manley Upcoming
98% 0%
—
Feb 21 Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia @ IHC West - McCrensky Upcoming
14% 77%
—
Feb 27 Connecticut Jr Rangers @ Shamrocks - Makin Upcoming
79% 12%
—
Feb 27 IHC West - McCrensky @ Northeast Generals Manley Upcoming
97% 1%
—
Feb 27 Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia @ South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo Upcoming
11% 83%
—
Feb 27 Connecticut Jr Rangers @ Shamrocks - Makin Upcoming
79% 12%
—
Feb 27 Northeast Generals McCarthy @ Boch Blazer - Tanguay Upcoming
40% 43%
—
Feb 28 Northeast Generals Manley @ Providence Capitals 2014 South - Silvia Upcoming
3% 94%
—
Feb 28 Boch Blazer - Tanguay @ South Shore Kings 2014 Gold Szabo Upcoming
52% 36%
—
Feb 28 Northeast Generals McCarthy @ IHC West - McCrensky Upcoming
47% 35%
—