The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	GF	GA	PTS	Champ %
1	Minuteman Sparks - ONeil	36	30	3	3	233	53	63	63%
2	New England Jr Dogs - Spencer	36	25	4	7	204	81	57	17%
3	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black	36	23	9	4	149	80	50	5%
4	Little Stars - Gorman	36	22	8	6	172	74	50	13%
5	Bay State Waves 2018 UG	36	19	14	3	107	76	41	2%
6	Boston Jr Dogs (White)	36	16	20	0	119	120	32	0%
7	Young Guns	36	15	19	2	186	198	32	0%
8	Team Merrimack West	36	10	26	0	127	240	20	0%
9	Northers Twisters - Dulong	36	4	30	2	88	267	10	—
10	Boch Blazers	36	2	33	1	73	269	5	—

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

#	Team	Proj. Finish	Win Division	Proj. Points
1	Minuteman Sparks - ONeil	1	100%	64 (64–64)
2	New England Jr Dogs - Spencer	2	<1%	57 (57–57)
3	Little Stars - Gorman	3	<1%	51 (49–51)
4	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black	4	<1%	50 (50–50)
5	Bay State Waves 2018 UG	5	<1%	41 (41–41)
6	Boston Jr Dogs (White)	6	<1%	32 (32–32)
7	Young Guns	7	<1%	31 (31–33)
8	Team Merrimack West	8	<1%	20 (20–20)
9	Northers Twisters - Dulong	9	<1%	9 (9–9)
10	Boch Blazers	10	<1%	5 (5–5)

Game Log

Date	Matchup	Score	Pre-game Probability	Surprisal	Flag
Feb 22	Little Stars - Gorman @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer	0–1	36% 47%	1.09
Feb 22	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	4–1	60% 22%	0.73
Feb 22	Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil	0–5	11% 75%	0.42
Feb 22	Team Merrimack West @ Young Guns	9–6	11% 83%	3.23	UPSET
Feb 22	Boch Blazers @ Northers Twisters - Dulong	5–9	33% 53%	0.91
Feb 21	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Little Stars - Gorman	2–6	32% 48%	1.08
Feb 21	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Young Guns	5–2	39% 47%	1.34
Feb 21	New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG	4–0	54% 26%	0.89
Feb 21	Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boch Blazers	9–1	100% 0%	0.00
Feb 21	Team Merrimack West @ Northers Twisters - Dulong	12–3	60% 28%	0.74
Feb 15	New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	4–1	74% 14%	0.42
Feb 15	Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Young Guns	5–1	95% 2%	0.08
Feb 15	Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black	1–11	2% 96%	0.07
Feb 14	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG	0–3	25% 54%	0.88
Feb 14	New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Young Guns	11–1	80% 12%	0.32
Feb 14	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Boch Blazers	3–2	96% 1%	0.05
Feb 08	Team Merrimack West @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil	0–8	0% 100%	0.01
Feb 08	Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer	1–4	25% 56%	0.84
Feb 08	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	2–1	62% 21%	0.68
Feb 08	Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Young Guns	4–6	3% 95%	0.08
Feb 07	Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Little Stars - Gorman	0–8	1% 98%	0.03
Feb 07	Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG	5–1	21% 65%	2.23
Feb 07	Team Merrimack West @ Boch Blazers	6–5	71% 19%	0.50
Feb 07	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil	1–2	15% 71%	0.50
Feb 04	Little Stars - Gorman @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil	1–4	19% 66%	0.61
Feb 01	Little Stars - Gorman @ Team Merrimack West	6–0	94% 3%	0.09
Feb 01	Northers Twisters - Dulong @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer	1–8	0% 99%	0.02
Feb 01	Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	3–0	87% 6%	0.20
Feb 01	Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black	1–2	32% 44%	1.17
Feb 01	Boch Blazers @ Young Guns	1–8	2% 97%	0.05
Jan 31	Young Guns @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil	0–10	3% 95%	0.08
Jan 31	Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG	0–2	3% 92%	0.11
Jan 31	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Boch Blazers	4–1	97% 1%	0.05
Jan 31	New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Team Merrimack West	10–3	95% 2%	0.07
Jan 25	Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Young Guns	5–6	62% 24%	2.07
Jan 25	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Little Stars - Gorman	1–6	15% 71%	0.49
Jan 25	New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black	2–1	44% 39%	1.20
Jan 24	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Northers Twisters - Dulong	5–1	96% 2%	0.07
Jan 24	Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Little Stars - Gorman	2–2	62% 23%	2.69	UPSET
Jan 24	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Northers Twisters - Dulong	4–2	85% 8%	0.23
Jan 24	New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boch Blazers	9–0	99% 0%	0.02
Jan 11	Team Merrimack West @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer	2–10	2% 96%	0.06
Jan 11	Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Team Merrimack West	9–0	99% 0%	0.02
Jan 11	Young Guns @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer	1–5	12% 81%	0.30
Jan 11	Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	2–7	6% 88%	0.19
Jan 11	Boch Blazers @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG	0–6	2% 94%	0.08
Jan 11	Little Stars - Gorman @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black	7–0	35% 46%	1.53
Jan 10	Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Little Stars - Gorman	2–1	31% 47%	1.68
Jan 10	Team Merrimack West @ Young Guns	2–7	9% 86%	0.23
Jan 10	Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boch Blazers	6–5	50% 36%	1.00
Jan 10	New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil	4–1	16% 73%	2.69	UPSET
Jan 04	New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Little Stars - Gorman	2–2	38% 46%	2.62
Jan 04	Boch Blazers @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil	1–11	0% 100%	0.00
Jan 04	Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	5–3	11% 80%	3.16	UPSET
Jan 04	Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black	1–2	12% 80%	0.32
Jan 04	Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Northers Twisters - Dulong	5–0	90% 4%	0.16
Jan 03	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Team Merrimack West	7–3	93% 3%	0.10
Jan 03	Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG	2–3	69% 15%	2.75	UPSET
Jan 03	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boch Blazers	10–0	87% 6%	0.21
Jan 03	New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Northers Twisters - Dulong	11–1	97% 2%	0.05
Dec 28	Team Merrimack West @ Little Stars - Gorman	3–7	2% 95%	0.08
Dec 28	Boch Blazers @ Northers Twisters - Dulong	5–5	30% 57%	2.94	UPSET
Dec 27	Little Stars - Gorman @ Boch Blazers	3–0	98% 1%	0.04
Dec 27	Team Merrimack West @ Northers Twisters - Dulong	4–7	62% 27%	1.89
Dec 21	Boch Blazers @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	1–4	4% 90%	0.14
Dec 21	Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black	2–6	2% 95%	0.08
Dec 21	Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil	0–8	0% 100%	0.00
Dec 20	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack West	3–4	76% 14%	2.82	UPSET
Dec 20	Little Stars - Gorman @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG	0–1	48% 31%	1.68
Dec 20	New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Northers Twisters - Dulong	9–0	96% 2%	0.05
Dec 20	Young Guns @ Boch Blazers	5–1	95% 2%	0.07
Dec 20	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil	0–7	24% 59%	0.75
Dec 14	Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Team Merrimack West	6–1	81% 10%	0.31
Dec 14	Boch Blazers @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer	2–9	1% 98%	0.02
Dec 14	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Little Stars - Gorman	0–4	49% 32%	1.62
Dec 14	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil	0–8	8% 84%	0.25
Dec 14	Young Guns @ Northers Twisters - Dulong	15–6	91% 5%	0.14
Dec 13	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer	3–8	25% 60%	0.74
Dec 13	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Northers Twisters - Dulong	11–1	96% 2%	0.06
Dec 13	Team Merrimack West @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil	1–11	0% 99%	0.01
Dec 13	Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boch Blazers	5–0	90% 4%	0.14
Dec 13	Little Stars - Gorman @ Young Guns	6–3	73% 18%	0.46
Dec 07	Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer	8–0	61% 26%	0.72
Dec 07	Young Guns @ Team Merrimack West	8–2	79% 14%	0.33
Dec 07	Little Stars - Gorman @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	1–3	61% 24%	2.08
Dec 07	Boch Blazers @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black	1–7	0% 99%	0.02
Dec 07	Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG	0–4	5% 88%	0.19
Dec 06	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Young Guns	8–3	78% 13%	0.35
Dec 06	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Northers Twisters - Dulong	4–2	84% 8%	0.24
Dec 06	Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil	1–4	16% 70%	0.53
Dec 06	Little Stars - Gorman @ Boch Blazers	9–0	97% 1%	0.04
Dec 06	New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Team Merrimack West	10–0	90% 6%	0.16
Nov 30	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer	3–3	51% 31%	2.53	UPSET
Nov 30	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Young Guns	5–3	45% 42%	1.16
Nov 30	Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boch Blazers	8–1	88% 5%	0.19
Nov 30	Little Stars - Gorman @ Northers Twisters - Dulong	3–1	96% 2%	0.06
Nov 29	New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Little Stars - Gorman	3–3	34% 51%	2.73	UPSET
Nov 29	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG	4–1	52% 26%	0.96
Nov 29	Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Northers Twisters - Dulong	9–4	99% 0%	0.01
Nov 23	Team Merrimack West @ Boch Blazers	8–2	64% 25%	0.64
Nov 23	Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Little Stars - Gorman	2–3	27% 54%	0.90
Nov 23	Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	3–2	80% 10%	0.31
Nov 23	Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Young Guns	7–8	2% 97%	0.05
Nov 23	New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black	1–1	28% 56%	2.65	UPSET
Nov 22	Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Northers Twisters - Dulong	2–0	90% 4%	0.14
Nov 22	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Little Stars - Gorman	2–5	20% 66%	0.61
Nov 22	Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boch Blazers	8–0	99% 0%	0.01
Nov 16	Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer	6–2	64% 23%	0.65
Nov 16	Boch Blazers @ Little Stars - Gorman	1–8	1% 98%	0.04
Nov 16	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black	1–6	20% 63%	0.66
Nov 16	Young Guns @ Team Merrimack West	9–13	89% 6%	3.98	UPSET
Nov 15	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG	3–2	29% 50%	1.77
Nov 15	New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boch Blazers	8–0	96% 2%	0.06
Nov 15	Little Stars - Gorman @ Northers Twisters - Dulong	12–3	97% 1%	0.05
Nov 15	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Team Merrimack West	5–0	93% 3%	0.10
Nov 15	Young Guns @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil	2–12	10% 83%	0.27
Nov 09	Boch Blazers @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	0–6	6% 88%	0.18
Nov 09	Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Team Merrimack West	11–4	98% 1%	0.03
Nov 09	Young Guns @ Northers Twisters - Dulong	13–3	95% 2%	0.07
Nov 08	Team Merrimack West @ Little Stars - Gorman	2–10	3% 93%	0.10
Nov 08	Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boch Blazers	4–8	36% 52%	0.96
Nov 08	Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG	3–5	33% 53%	0.93
Nov 08	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil	2–3	9% 82%	0.28
Nov 02	Young Guns @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer	6–7	24% 66%	0.60
Nov 02	Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	3–1	45% 35%	1.14
Nov 02	Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Team Merrimack West	5–11	35% 51%	0.96
Nov 01	Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Team Merrimack West	2–1	85% 7%	0.23
Oct 26	Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	2–7	8% 84%	0.25
Oct 26	Young Guns @ Little Stars - Gorman	7–9	23% 65%	0.61
Oct 26	Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black	2–12	4% 91%	0.14
Oct 25	Little Stars - Gorman @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black	4–1	31% 50%	1.68
Oct 25	Boch Blazers @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG	1–5	3% 93%	0.10
Oct 25	Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Young Guns	13–4	72% 18%	0.47
Oct 19	Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer	0–4	40% 44%	1.18
Oct 19	Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Little Stars - Gorman	0–10	8% 83%	0.26
Oct 19	Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	3–7	59% 28%	1.86
Oct 18	Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Team Merrimack West	4–2	40% 46%	1.31
Oct 18	Young Guns @ Boch Blazers	10–5	97% 2%	0.04
Oct 18	Little Stars - Gorman @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG	1–1	34% 48%	2.54	UPSET
Oct 18	New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil	6–4	12% 78%	3.02	UPSET
Oct 12	Northers Twisters - Dulong @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer	2–10	12% 79%	0.35
Oct 12	Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black	4–2	52% 30%	0.95
Oct 12	Boch Blazers @ Team Merrimack West	8–2	13% 80%	2.99	UPSET
Oct 11	Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil	0–10	50/50	—
Oct 11	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer	4–5	28% 58%	0.80
Oct 11	Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Young Guns	5–1	31% 54%	1.68
Oct 05	Boch Blazers @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer	0–10	2% 96%	0.07
Oct 05	Little Stars - Gorman @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	4–1	48% 36%	1.05
Oct 05	Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black	2–4	25% 57%	0.82
Sep 28	Team Merrimack West @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer	6–4	3% 93%	4.90	UPSET
Sep 28	Boch Blazers @ Little Stars - Gorman	1–11	4% 93%	0.11
Sep 28	Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	2–8	50/50	—
Sep 28	Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black	0–5	42% 43%	1.23
Sep 27	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer	3–2	45% 38%	1.14
Sep 27	Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Little Stars - Gorman	4–2	74% 15%	0.44
Sep 27	Team Merrimack West @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG	0–6	7% 86%	0.22
Sep 27	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boch Blazers	8–3	74% 16%	0.42
Sep 21	Young Guns @ Little Stars - Gorman	7–4	56% 30%	0.84
Sep 21	Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	2–3	63% 21%	2.22
Sep 21	Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black	3–3	64% 21% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	2.72	UPSET
Sep 21	Boch Blazers @ Team Merrimack West	5–10	52% 37% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	1.44
Sep 20	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black	0–1	11% 79% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	0.33
Sep 20	New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG	3–3	43% 43% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	2.75
Sep 20	Little Stars - Gorman @ Team Merrimack West	8–3	82% 10% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	0.30
Sep 20	Boch Blazers @ Young Guns	4–12	50/50	—
Sep 14	New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	5–2	50/50	—
Sep 14	Boch Blazers @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black	1–11	50/50	—
Sep 13	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG	2–2	50/50	—
Sep 13	Little Stars - Gorman @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil	2–7	50/50	—
Sep 13	New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Young Guns	6–6	50/50	—
Sep 13	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack West	6–3	50/50	—
Sep 07	Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG	7–0	50/50	—
Sep 07	Little Stars - Gorman @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer	4–4	50/50	—
Sep 07	Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	8–1	50/50	—
Sep 07	Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black	1–6	50/50	—
Sep 06	Boch Blazers @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil	2–12	50/50	—
Sep 06	Team Merrimack West @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG	0–10	50/50	—
Sep 06	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Young Guns	4–6	50/50	—
Aug 01	Little Stars - Gorman @ Young Guns	0–0	50/50	—
Aug 01	Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Northers Twisters - Dulong	0–0	50/50	—