The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS
1 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 35 30 3 2 250 53 62
2 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 36 25 4 7 208 81 57
3 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 36 23 9 4 153 80 50
4 Little Stars - Gorman 35 22 8 5 177 74 49
5 Bay State Waves 2018 UG 36 19 14 3 108 76 41
6 Boston Jr Dogs (White) 36 16 20 0 119 120 32
7 Young Guns 35 15 19 1 189 207 31
8 Team Merrimack West 36 10 26 0 127 242 20
9 Northers Twisters - Dulong 35 4 30 1 88 281 9
10 Boch Blazers 36 2 33 1 73 278 5

Game Log

Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Feb 22 Little Stars - Gorman @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 0–1
39.9%
43.9%
1.19
Feb 22 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 4–1
65.7%
19.9%
0.61
Feb 22 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 0–5
10.1%
79.1%
0.34
Feb 22 Team Merrimack West @ Young Guns 9–6
12.9%
80.6%
2.96 UPSET
Feb 22 Boch Blazers @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 5–9
37.6%
48.8%
1.04
Feb 21 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 4–0
57.9%
25.6%
0.79
Feb 21 Team Merrimack West @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 12–3
69.8%
20.3%
0.52
Feb 21 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boch Blazers 9–1
100.0%
0.0%
0.00
Feb 21 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–6
35.4%
47.3%
1.08
Feb 21 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Young Guns 5–2
45.4%
41.4%
1.14
Feb 15 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 4–1
78.4%
11.7%
0.35
Feb 15 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Young Guns 5–1
98.7%
0.5%
0.02
Feb 15 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–12
1.1%
97.1%
0.04
Feb 14 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Young Guns 12–1
87.5%
7.2%
0.19
Feb 14 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 0–3
27.9%
54.4%
0.88
Feb 14 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Boch Blazers 3–2
98.1%
0.7%
0.03
Feb 08 Team Merrimack West @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 0–8
0.1%
99.8%
0.00
Feb 08 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 1–4
28.1%
54.9%
0.86
Feb 08 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–1
67.7%
18.4%
0.56
Feb 08 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Young Guns 4–6
2.1%
96.0%
0.06
Feb 07 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 5–1
19.7%
68.1%
2.34
Feb 07 Team Merrimack West @ Boch Blazers 6–5
77.9%
13.5%
0.36
Feb 07 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 1–2
13.6%
74.9%
0.42
Feb 07 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Little Stars - Gorman 0–8
0.4%
99.0%
0.01
Feb 04 Little Stars - Gorman @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 1–4
17.5%
70.0%
0.51
Feb 01 Boch Blazers @ Young Guns 1–8
1.4%
97.2%
0.04
Feb 01 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 1–8
0.3%
99.3%
0.01
Feb 01 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–0
93.2%
2.9%
0.10
Feb 01 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–2
35.4%
44.9%
1.16
Feb 01 Little Stars - Gorman @ Team Merrimack West 6–0
96.6%
1.5%
0.05
Jan 31 Young Guns @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 0–17
1.3%
97.3%
0.04
Jan 31 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 0–2
2.2%
94.6%
0.08
Jan 31 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Boch Blazers 4–1
98.4%
0.6%
0.02
Jan 31 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Team Merrimack West 10–3
97.0%
1.3%
0.04
Jan 25 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Little Stars - Gorman 1–6
14.9%
73.3%
0.45
Jan 25 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Young Guns 5–6
69.3%
18.7%
2.42
Jan 25 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 2–1
46.1%
37.4%
1.12
Jan 24 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 5–1
98.3%
0.6%
0.02
Jan 24 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–2
69.7%
17.9%
3.02 UPSET
Jan 24 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 4–2
91.0%
4.4%
0.14
Jan 24 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boch Blazers 9–0
99.4%
0.2%
0.01
Jan 11 Team Merrimack West @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 2–10
1.6%
96.6%
0.05
Jan 11 Boch Blazers @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 0–6
1.7%
95.4%
0.07
Jan 11 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Team Merrimack West 9–0
99.7%
0.1%
0.00
Jan 11 Young Guns @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 1–5
10.0%
83.7%
0.26
Jan 11 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–7
4.6%
90.6%
0.14
Jan 11 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 7–0
37.2%
45.7%
1.43
Jan 10 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–1
34.9%
46.6%
1.52
Jan 10 Team Merrimack West @ Young Guns 2–7
10.3%
84.2%
0.25
Jan 10 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boch Blazers 6–5
52.3%
34.5%
0.94
Jan 10 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 4–1
13.3%
77.0%
2.91 UPSET
Jan 04 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 5–0
94.4%
2.3%
0.08
Jan 04 Boch Blazers @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 1–11
0.0%
100.0%
0.00
Jan 04 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–2
41.0%
43.5%
2.69
Jan 04 Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 5–3
11.9%
79.4%
3.07 UPSET
Jan 04 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–2
9.5%
83.6%
0.26
Jan 03 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Team Merrimack West 7–3
95.9%
1.8%
0.06
Jan 03 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 2–3
77.1%
11.6%
3.10 UPSET
Jan 03 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 11–1
99.0%
0.4%
0.01
Jan 03 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boch Blazers 10–0
91.0%
4.2%
0.14
Dec 28 Team Merrimack West @ Little Stars - Gorman 3–7
1.8%
95.9%
0.06
Dec 28 Boch Blazers @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 5–5
33.7%
53.1%
2.92 UPSET
Dec 27 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boch Blazers 3–0
99.1%
0.3%
0.01
Dec 27 Team Merrimack West @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 4–7
73.7%
17.3%
2.53 UPSET
Dec 21 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 0–8
0.0%
100.0%
0.00
Dec 21 Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 2–6
1.8%
95.8%
0.06
Dec 21 Boch Blazers @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–4
3.8%
91.9%
0.12
Dec 20 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 0–7
23.4%
60.2%
0.73
Dec 20 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack West 3–4
79.8%
11.4%
3.13 UPSET
Dec 20 Little Stars - Gorman @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 0–1
50.1%
28.9%
1.79
Dec 20 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 9–0
99.1%
0.4%
0.01
Dec 20 Young Guns @ Boch Blazers 5–1
97.7%
1.2%
0.03
Dec 14 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Team Merrimack West 6–1
84.6%
7.2%
0.24
Dec 14 Boch Blazers @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 2–9
0.2%
99.3%
0.01
Dec 14 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Little Stars - Gorman 0–4
55.1%
26.9%
1.89
Dec 14 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 0–8
5.2%
88.6%
0.17
Dec 14 Young Guns @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 15–6
97.0%
1.6%
0.04
Dec 13 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 3–8
24.1%
60.5%
0.73
Dec 13 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 11–1
99.1%
0.3%
0.01
Dec 13 Team Merrimack West @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 1–11
0.1%
99.7%
0.00
Dec 13 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boch Blazers 5–0
93.9%
2.2%
0.09
Dec 13 Little Stars - Gorman @ Young Guns 6–3
80.6%
12.2%
0.31
Dec 07 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–3
65.5%
19.6%
2.35
Dec 07 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 0–4
2.7%
93.0%
0.10
Dec 07 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 8–0
69.3%
18.8%
0.53
Dec 07 Young Guns @ Team Merrimack West 8–2
85.2%
9.6%
0.23
Dec 07 Boch Blazers @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–7
0.2%
99.3%
0.01
Dec 06 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Young Guns 8–3
88.6%
6.1%
0.17
Dec 06 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 4–2
93.0%
3.2%
0.10
Dec 06 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 1–4
14.1%
71.9%
0.48
Dec 06 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boch Blazers 9–0
99.1%
0.3%
0.01
Dec 06 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Team Merrimack West 11–0
94.3%
2.9%
0.09
Nov 30 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 3–3
58.2%
24.6%
2.54 UPSET
Nov 30 Little Stars - Gorman @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 3–1
99.4%
0.2%
0.01
Nov 30 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Young Guns 5–3
51.3%
36.3%
0.96
Nov 30 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boch Blazers 8–1
92.7%
2.7%
0.11
Nov 29 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Little Stars - Gorman 3–3
36.7%
48.2%
2.73
Nov 29 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 9–4
100.0%
0.0%
0.00
Nov 29 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 4–1
56.2%
20.5%
0.83
Nov 23 Team Merrimack West @ Boch Blazers 8–2
72.3%
18.5%
0.47
Nov 23 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–3
30.8%
52.0%
0.94
Nov 23 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–2
90.0%
4.7%
0.15
Nov 23 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Young Guns 7–8
0.3%
99.4%
0.01
Nov 23 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–1
26.0%
58.9%
2.73 UPSET
Nov 22 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 2–0
98.0%
0.7%
0.03
Nov 22 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–5
20.6%
66.2%
0.60
Nov 22 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boch Blazers 8–0
100.0%
0.0%
0.00
Nov 16 Boch Blazers @ Little Stars - Gorman 1–8
0.3%
99.2%
0.01
Nov 16 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–6
18.1%
67.7%
0.56
Nov 16 Young Guns @ Team Merrimack West 9–13
94.7%
2.9%
5.09 UPSET
Nov 16 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 6–2
78.5%
12.6%
0.35
Nov 15 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boch Blazers 8–0
98.9%
0.4%
0.02
Nov 15 Young Guns @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 2–13
3.8%
93.1%
0.10
Nov 15 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Team Merrimack West 5–0
97.4%
1.0%
0.04
Nov 15 Little Stars - Gorman @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 12–3
99.9%
0.0%
0.00
Nov 15 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 3–2
29.1%
52.9%
1.78
Nov 09 Boch Blazers @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 0–6
4.0%
92.0%
0.12
Nov 09 Young Guns @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 16–3
99.8%
0.1%
0.00
Nov 09 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Team Merrimack West 11–4
99.9%
0.0%
0.00
Nov 08 Team Merrimack West @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–10
0.8%
98.1%
0.03
Nov 08 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boch Blazers 4–8
20.1%
70.3%
0.51
Nov 08 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 2–3
3.1%
93.1%
0.10
Nov 08 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 3–5
31.9%
53.7%
0.90
Nov 02 Young Guns @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 6–7
23.7%
66.1%
0.60
Nov 02 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–1
53.9%
28.8%
0.89
Nov 02 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Team Merrimack West 5–11
18.5%
71.0%
0.49
Nov 01 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Team Merrimack West 2–1
93.9%
2.6%
0.09
Oct 26 Young Guns @ Little Stars - Gorman 7–9
16.9%
73.7%
0.44
Oct 26 Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–7
5.7%
88.9%
0.17
Oct 26 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 2–13
0.2%
99.4%
0.01
Oct 25 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 4–1
28.6%
55.3%
1.81
Oct 25 Boch Blazers @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 1–5
1.1%
97.2%
0.04
Oct 25 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Young Guns 13–4
93.9%
3.2%
0.09
Oct 19 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Little Stars - Gorman 0–14
0.5%
98.5%
0.02
Oct 19 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–7
68.3%
20.6%
2.28
Oct 19 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 0–4
49.8%
34.3%
1.54
Oct 18 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Team Merrimack West 4–2
12.2%
79.5%
3.04 UPSET
Oct 18 Little Stars - Gorman @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 1–1
32.8%
51.3%
2.65 UPSET
Oct 18 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 6–4
2.8%
93.8%
5.14 UPSET
Oct 18 Young Guns @ Boch Blazers 10–5
99.6%
0.2%
0.01
Oct 12 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 2–10 50/50 —
Oct 12 Boch Blazers @ Team Merrimack West 8–2
8.9%
85.6%
3.50 UPSET
Oct 12 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 4–2
62.4%
22.3%
0.68
Oct 11 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 0–15 50/50 —
Oct 11 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Young Guns 5–1
38.3%
46.1%
1.38
Oct 11 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 4–5
33.9%
50.5%
0.99
Oct 05 Boch Blazers @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 0–12
12.7%
70.1%
0.51
Oct 05 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 4–1
42.6%
40.1%
1.23
Oct 05 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 2–4
31.3%
51.5%
0.96
Sep 28 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 0–5
39.1%
40.9%
1.29
Sep 28 Team Merrimack West @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 6–4
18.4%
61.6%
2.44
Sep 28 Boch Blazers @ Little Stars - Gorman 1–12
16.2%
63.8%
0.65
Sep 28 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–8 50/50 —
Sep 27 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 3–2
55.0%
29.6%
0.86
Sep 27 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Little Stars - Gorman 4–2
93.8%
2.8%
0.09
Sep 27 Team Merrimack West @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 0–6
1.9%
95.9%
0.06
Sep 27 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boch Blazers 8–3
82.7%
9.4%
0.27
Sep 21 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 3–3
87.2%
5.9% ⚠
3.85 UPSET
Sep 21 Young Guns @ Little Stars - Gorman 7–4
70.0%
20.0% ⚠
0.51
Sep 21 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–3
82.4%
8.3% ⚠
3.58 UPSET
Sep 21 Boch Blazers @ Team Merrimack West 5–10
77.3%
15.2% ⚠
2.72 UPSET
Sep 20 Little Stars - Gorman @ Team Merrimack West 8–3 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boch Blazers @ Young Guns 4–12 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 0–1
10.9%
66.0% ⚠
0.60
Sep 20 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 3–3
35.1%
41.8% ⚠
2.12
Sep 14 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 5–2 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boch Blazers @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–13 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 13 Little Stars - Gorman @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 2–7 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack West 6–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Young Guns 6–6 50/50 —
Sep 07 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 7–0 50/50 —
Sep 07 Little Stars - Gorman @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 4–4 50/50 —
Sep 07 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 8–1 50/50 —
Sep 07 Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–6 50/50 —
Sep 06 Team Merrimack West @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 0–11 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Young Guns 4–6 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boch Blazers @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 2–16 50/50 —