Upset Index

Games sorted by how surprising the result was, based on pre-game Dixon-Coles probabilities.

All Upsets only Low confidence
# Date Matchup Result Pre-game odds Surprisal (bits)
1 Sep 28, 2025 Team Merrimack West @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 6–4
0.6%
98.6%
7.35 UPSET
2 Nov 16, 2025 Young Guns @ Team Merrimack West 9–13
94.7%
2.9%
5.09 UPSET
3 Oct 18, 2025 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 6–4
2.9%
93.7%
5.09 UPSET
4 Sep 21, 2025 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 3–3
87.9%
6.2% ⚠
4.07 UPSET
5 Oct 12, 2025 Boch Blazers @ Team Merrimack West 8–2
8.9%
85.6%
3.50 UPSET
6 Sep 21, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–3
82.4%
9.7% ⚠
3.37 UPSET
7 Dec 20, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack West 3–4
79.8%
11.4%
3.13 UPSET
8 Jan 04, 2026 Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 5–3
11.9%
79.5%
3.07 UPSET
9 Jan 03, 2026 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 2–3
77.5%
11.9%
3.07 UPSET
10 Jan 24, 2026 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–2
69.8%
18.0%
3.04 UPSET
11 Oct 18, 2025 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Team Merrimack West 4–2
12.3%
79.5%
3.02 UPSET
12 Feb 22, 2026 Team Merrimack West @ Young Guns 9–6
12.9%
80.6%
2.96 UPSET
13 Dec 28, 2025 Boch Blazers @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 5–5
33.7%
53.1%
2.93 UPSET
14 Jan 10, 2026 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 4–1
13.3%
77.0%
2.91 UPSET
15 Oct 18, 2025 Little Stars - Gorman @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 1–1
33.5%
51.7%
2.75 UPSET
16 Sep 20, 2025 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 3–3
55.0%
30.1% ⚠
2.74 UPSET
17 Nov 23, 2025 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–1
26.1%
58.9%
2.74 UPSET
18 Nov 29, 2025 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Little Stars - Gorman 3–3
36.7%
48.2%
2.73
19 Jan 04, 2026 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–2
41.0%
43.6%
2.70
20 Sep 21, 2025 Boch Blazers @ Team Merrimack West 5–10
76.8%
15.5% ⚠
2.69 UPSET
21 Nov 30, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 3–3
58.2%
24.6%
2.54 UPSET
22 Dec 27, 2025 Team Merrimack West @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 4–7
73.6%
17.3%
2.53 UPSET
23 Jan 25, 2026 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Young Guns 5–6
69.3%
18.8%
2.41
24 Dec 07, 2025 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–3
65.5%
19.6%
2.35
25 Feb 07, 2026 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 5–1
19.9%
68.1%
2.33
26 Oct 19, 2025 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–7
68.3%
20.6%
2.28
27 Dec 14, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Little Stars - Gorman 0–4
55.1%
26.9%
1.89
28 Oct 25, 2025 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 4–1
28.7%
55.4%
1.80
29 Dec 20, 2025 Little Stars - Gorman @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 0–1
50.1%
28.9%
1.79
30 Nov 15, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 3–2
29.4%
53.2%
1.77
31 Oct 19, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 0–4
49.8%
34.3%
1.54
32 Jan 10, 2026 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–1
35.4%
47.3%
1.50
33 Jan 11, 2026 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 7–0
37.5%
45.8%
1.41
34 Oct 11, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Young Guns 5–1
42.7%
43.7%
1.23
35 Feb 22, 2026 Little Stars - Gorman @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 0–1
40.1%
44.0%
1.18
36 Feb 21, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Young Guns 5–2
45.5%
41.4%
1.14
37 Feb 01, 2026 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–2
36.3%
45.8%
1.13
38 Jan 25, 2026 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 2–1
46.3%
37.5%
1.11
39 Feb 21, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–6
35.7%
47.7%
1.07
40 Sep 28, 2025 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 0–5
37.0%
48.7%
1.04
41 Feb 22, 2026 Boch Blazers @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 5–9
37.6%
48.8%
1.03
42 Nov 30, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Young Guns 5–3
51.3%
36.3%
0.96
43 Nov 23, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–3
30.9%
52.2%
0.94
44 Jan 10, 2026 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boch Blazers 6–5
52.3%
34.5%
0.94
45 Nov 08, 2025 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 3–5
31.9%
53.7%
0.90
46 Nov 02, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–1
54.2%
29.2%
0.88
47 Sep 27, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 3–2
54.6%
30.9%
0.87
48 Feb 14, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 0–3
28.8%
55.0%
0.86
49 Feb 08, 2026 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 1–4
28.6%
55.5%
0.85
50 Nov 29, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 4–1
56.2%
20.5%
0.83
51 Oct 05, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 2–4
28.2%
58.1%
0.78
52 Feb 21, 2026 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 4–0
58.5%
26.1%
0.77
53 Dec 20, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 0–7
23.4%
60.2%
0.73
54 Dec 13, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 3–8
24.1%
60.5%
0.73
55 Oct 12, 2025 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 4–2
63.8%
23.1%
0.65
56 Feb 22, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 4–1
65.9%
20.4%
0.60
57 Nov 02, 2025 Young Guns @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 6–7
23.7%
66.1%
0.60
58 Nov 22, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–5
20.6%
66.2%
0.60
59 Oct 05, 2025 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 4–1
67.4%
20.3%
0.57
60 Oct 11, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 4–5
20.0%
67.7%
0.56
61 Nov 16, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–6
18.3%
67.8%
0.56
62 Feb 08, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–1
67.8%
18.8%
0.56
63 Dec 07, 2025 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 8–0
69.3%
18.8%
0.53
64 Feb 21, 2026 Team Merrimack West @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 12–3
69.8%
20.3%
0.52
65 Sep 21, 2025 Young Guns @ Little Stars - Gorman 7–4
69.8%
20.2% ⚠
0.52
66 Feb 04, 2026 Little Stars - Gorman @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 1–4
17.6%
70.1%
0.51
67 Nov 08, 2025 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boch Blazers 4–8
20.2%
70.3%
0.51
68 Nov 02, 2025 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Team Merrimack West 5–11
18.5%
71.1%
0.49
69 Dec 06, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 1–4
14.1%
71.9%
0.48
70 Nov 23, 2025 Team Merrimack West @ Boch Blazers 8–2
72.3%
18.5%
0.47
71 Jan 25, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Little Stars - Gorman 1–6
15.1%
73.3%
0.45
72 Oct 26, 2025 Young Guns @ Little Stars - Gorman 7–9
16.9%
73.7%
0.44
73 Feb 07, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 1–2
13.8%
75.1%
0.41
74 Feb 07, 2026 Team Merrimack West @ Boch Blazers 6–5
77.9%
13.5%
0.36
75 Feb 15, 2026 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 4–1
78.4%
11.8%
0.35
76 Nov 16, 2025 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 6–2
78.5%
12.6%
0.35
77 Feb 22, 2026 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 0–5
10.6%
79.6%
0.33
78 Dec 13, 2025 Little Stars - Gorman @ Young Guns 6–3
80.6%
12.2%
0.31
79 Sep 20, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 0–1
7.8%
82.2% ⚠
0.28
80 Jan 04, 2026 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–2
9.6%
83.6%
0.26
81 Sep 27, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boch Blazers 8–3
83.6%
9.0%
0.26
82 Jan 11, 2026 Young Guns @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 1–5
10.0%
83.7%
0.26
83 Jan 10, 2026 Team Merrimack West @ Young Guns 2–7
10.3%
84.2%
0.25
84 Dec 14, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Team Merrimack West 6–1
84.6%
7.2%
0.24
85 Dec 07, 2025 Young Guns @ Team Merrimack West 8–2
85.2%
9.6%
0.23
86 Feb 14, 2026 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Young Guns 12–1
87.5%
7.2%
0.19
87 Dec 14, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 0–8
5.2%
88.6%
0.17
88 Dec 06, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Young Guns 8–3
88.6%
6.1%
0.17
89 Oct 26, 2025 Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–7
5.7%
88.9%
0.17
90 Nov 23, 2025 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–2
89.9%
4.8%
0.15
91 Jan 11, 2026 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–7
4.6%
90.6%
0.14
92 Jan 03, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boch Blazers 10–0
91.0%
4.2%
0.14
93 Jan 24, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 4–2
91.0%
4.4%
0.14
94 Dec 21, 2025 Boch Blazers @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–4
3.8%
91.9%
0.12
95 Nov 09, 2025 Boch Blazers @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 0–6
4.0%
92.0%
0.12
96 Nov 30, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boch Blazers 8–1
92.7%
2.7%
0.11
97 Dec 06, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 4–2
93.0%
3.2%
0.10
98 Dec 07, 2025 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 0–4
2.7%
93.0%
0.10
99 Nov 08, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 2–3
3.1%
93.1%
0.10
100 Nov 15, 2025 Young Guns @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 2–13
3.8%
93.1%
0.10
101 Feb 01, 2026 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–0
93.2%
3.0%
0.10
102 Sep 27, 2025 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Little Stars - Gorman 4–2
93.7%
2.9%
0.09
103 Oct 25, 2025 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Young Guns 13–4
93.9%
3.2%
0.09
104 Nov 01, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Team Merrimack West 2–1
93.9%
2.6%
0.09
105 Dec 13, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Boch Blazers 5–0
93.9%
2.2%
0.09
106 Dec 06, 2025 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Team Merrimack West 11–0
94.3%
2.9%
0.09
107 Jan 04, 2026 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 5–0
94.4%
2.3%
0.08
108 Jan 31, 2026 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 0–2
2.3%
94.6%
0.08
109 Jan 11, 2026 Boch Blazers @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 0–6
1.8%
95.4%
0.07
110 Dec 21, 2025 Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 2–6
1.8%
95.8%
0.06
111 Sep 27, 2025 Team Merrimack West @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 0–6
1.9%
95.8%
0.06
112 Jan 03, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Team Merrimack West 7–3
95.9%
1.8%
0.06
113 Dec 28, 2025 Team Merrimack West @ Little Stars - Gorman 3–7
1.8%
95.9%
0.06
114 Feb 08, 2026 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Young Guns 4–6
2.1%
96.0%
0.06
115 Jan 11, 2026 Team Merrimack West @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 2–10
1.6%
96.6%
0.05
116 Feb 01, 2026 Little Stars - Gorman @ Team Merrimack West 6–0
96.6%
1.5%
0.05
117 Dec 14, 2025 Young Guns @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 15–6
97.0%
1.6%
0.04
118 Jan 31, 2026 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Team Merrimack West 10–3
97.0%
1.3%
0.04
119 Feb 15, 2026 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–12
1.1%
97.1%
0.04
120 Feb 01, 2026 Boch Blazers @ Young Guns 1–8
1.4%
97.2%
0.04
121 Oct 25, 2025 Boch Blazers @ Bay State Waves 2018 UG 1–5
1.2%
97.2%
0.04
122 Jan 31, 2026 Young Guns @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 0–17
1.3%
97.3%
0.04
123 Nov 15, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Team Merrimack West 5–0
97.4%
1.0%
0.04
124 Dec 20, 2025 Young Guns @ Boch Blazers 5–1
97.7%
1.2%
0.03
125 Nov 22, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 UG @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 2–0
98.0%
0.7%
0.03
126 Nov 08, 2025 Team Merrimack West @ Little Stars - Gorman 2–10
0.8%
98.1%
0.03
127 Feb 14, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Boch Blazers 3–2
98.1%
0.7%
0.03
128 Oct 05, 2025 Boch Blazers @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 0–12
0.8%
98.2%
0.03
129 Sep 28, 2025 Boch Blazers @ Little Stars - Gorman 1–12
0.8%
98.2%
0.03
130 Jan 24, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 5–1
98.3%
0.6%
0.02
131 Jan 31, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Boch Blazers 4–1
98.4%
0.6%
0.02
132 Oct 19, 2025 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Little Stars - Gorman 0–14
0.5%
98.5%
0.02
133 Feb 15, 2026 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Young Guns 5–1
98.7%
0.5%
0.02
134 Nov 15, 2025 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boch Blazers 8–0
98.9%
0.4%
0.02
135 Jan 03, 2026 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 11–1
99.0%
0.4%
0.01
136 Feb 07, 2026 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Little Stars - Gorman 0–8
0.4%
99.0%
0.01
137 Dec 20, 2025 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 9–0
99.1%
0.4%
0.01
138 Dec 06, 2025 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boch Blazers 9–0
99.1%
0.3%
0.01
139 Dec 27, 2025 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boch Blazers 3–0
99.1%
0.3%
0.01
140 Dec 13, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 11–1
99.1%
0.3%
0.01
141 Nov 16, 2025 Boch Blazers @ Little Stars - Gorman 1–8
0.3%
99.2%
0.01
142 Feb 01, 2026 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 1–8
0.3%
99.3%
0.01
143 Dec 14, 2025 Boch Blazers @ New England Jr Dogs - Spencer 2–9
0.2%
99.3%
0.01
144 Dec 07, 2025 Boch Blazers @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 1–7
0.2%
99.3%
0.01
145 Nov 23, 2025 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Young Guns 7–8
0.3%
99.4%
0.01
146 Nov 30, 2025 Little Stars - Gorman @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 3–1
99.4%
0.2%
0.01
147 Oct 26, 2025 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) - Black 2–13
0.2%
99.4%
0.01
148 Jan 24, 2026 New England Jr Dogs - Spencer @ Boch Blazers 9–0
99.4%
0.2%
0.01
149 Oct 18, 2025 Young Guns @ Boch Blazers 10–5
99.6%
0.2%
0.01
150 Jan 11, 2026 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Team Merrimack West 9–0
99.7%
0.1%
0.00
151 Dec 13, 2025 Team Merrimack West @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 1–11
0.1%
99.7%
0.00
152 Nov 09, 2025 Young Guns @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 16–3
99.8%
0.1%
0.00
153 Feb 08, 2026 Team Merrimack West @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 0–8
0.1%
99.8%
0.00
154 Nov 15, 2025 Little Stars - Gorman @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 12–3
99.9%
0.0%
0.00
155 Nov 09, 2025 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Team Merrimack West 11–4
99.9%
0.0%
0.00
156 Feb 21, 2026 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boch Blazers 9–1
100.0%
0.0%
0.00
157 Jan 04, 2026 Boch Blazers @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 1–11
0.0%
100.0%
0.00
158 Nov 22, 2025 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Boch Blazers 8–0
100.0%
0.0%
0.00
159 Dec 21, 2025 Northers Twisters - Dulong @ Minuteman Sparks - ONeil 0–8
0.0%
100.0%
0.00
160 Nov 29, 2025 Minuteman Sparks - ONeil @ Northers Twisters - Dulong 9–4
100.0%
0.0%
0.00