Upset Index

Games sorted by how surprising the result was, based on pre-game Dixon-Coles probabilities.

All Upsets only Low confidence
# Date Matchup Result Pre-game odds Surprisal (bits)
1 Oct 04, 2025 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 4–3
0.1%
99.6%
9.52 UPSET
2 Oct 05, 2025 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ South Shore Knights 4–4
97.6%
0.9%
6.04 UPSET
3 Sep 27, 2025 Minuteman Sparks @ Young Guns 4–3
2.9%
93.6% ⚠
5.13 UPSET
4 Dec 14, 2025 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs 4–4
4.7%
90.5%
4.39 UPSET
5 Feb 01, 2026 South Shore Knights @ Providence 5–5
8.0%
86.2%
4.10 UPSET
6 Feb 07, 2026 South Shore Knights @ Young Guns 9–4
6.7%
87.9%
3.89 UPSET
7 Oct 11, 2025 Providence @ Team Boston 3–3
69.3%
20.4%
3.27 UPSET
8 Jan 04, 2026 Team Boston @ South Shore Knights 6–6
69.0%
20.4%
3.25 UPSET
9 Sep 27, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–2
24.0%
64.7% ⚠
3.14 UPSET
10 Dec 13, 2025 Young Guns @ Providence 4–4
48.7%
38.1%
2.92
11 Nov 15, 2025 Providence @ Young Guns 4–4
41.1%
45.3%
2.88
12 Dec 20, 2025 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr Dogs 3–3
27.1%
58.2%
2.77 UPSET
13 Nov 16, 2025 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr Dogs 3–3
24.1%
61.1%
2.76 UPSET
14 Dec 13, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack 4–3
16.0%
72.5%
2.65 UPSET
15 Dec 20, 2025 Providence @ Team Boston 4–9
73.0%
17.2%
2.54 UPSET
16 Oct 19, 2025 Team Boston @ Minuteman Sparks 3–5
67.0%
22.6%
2.15
17 Dec 21, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Minuteman Sparks 4–8
63.9%
24.9%
2.01
18 Nov 16, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 1–4
60.1%
27.9%
1.84
19 Feb 22, 2026 Team Boston @ South Shore Knights 4–7
58.8%
29.5%
1.76
20 Oct 05, 2025 Young Guns @ Team Boston 4–1
32.4%
54.3%
1.63
21 Feb 08, 2026 Young Guns @ Providence 2–3
49.1%
38.5%
1.38
22 Dec 13, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 1–11
44.4%
42.2%
1.24
23 Dec 13, 2025 Young Guns @ Providence 6–5
48.7%
38.1%
1.04
24 Feb 07, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 6–5
51.2%
33.0%
0.97
25 Sep 28, 2025 Team Boston @ South Shore Knights 6–5
52.3%
34.0% ⚠
0.93
26 Oct 26, 2025 Minuteman Sparks @ South Shore Knights 5–11
33.2%
54.7%
0.87
27 Jan 03, 2026 South Shore Knights @ Minuteman Sparks 4–2
55.3%
32.3%
0.86
28 Nov 01, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Providence 2–10
28.6%
59.1%
0.76
29 Nov 08, 2025 Team Boston @ Young Guns 1–11
25.4%
61.7%
0.70
30 Oct 11, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–1
62.1%
24.8%
0.69
31 Nov 23, 2025 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Boston 3–9
25.2%
63.7%
0.65
32 Nov 02, 2025 Young Guns @ Minuteman Sparks 14–3
66.1%
22.6%
0.60
33 Jan 31, 2026 Team Boston @ Providence 6–8
21.3%
68.5%
0.55
34 Feb 08, 2026 Minuteman Sparks @ South Shore Knights 5–11
19.0%
70.9%
0.50
35 Dec 14, 2025 Team Boston @ Minuteman Sparks 9–1
72.1%
18.4%
0.47
36 Dec 21, 2025 Team Merrimack @ Boston Jr Dogs 10–2
72.5%
16.0%
0.46
37 Jan 11, 2026 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Young Guns 8–1
73.8%
15.5%
0.44
38 Nov 09, 2025 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Team Merrimack 0–7
13.2%
75.1%
0.41
39 Jan 03, 2026 Young Guns @ Team Boston 4–3
75.6%
15.3%
0.40
40 Jan 17, 2026 Team Merrimack @ Boston Jr Dogs 3–0
75.7%
13.9%
0.40
41 Nov 22, 2025 Providence @ South Shore Knights 10–5
75.7%
14.8%
0.40
42 Nov 29, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Young Guns 1–9
14.4%
76.7%
0.38
43 Nov 09, 2025 Young Guns @ Team Boston 11–3
76.9%
13.8%
0.38
44 Nov 29, 2025 Providence @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–11
13.0%
77.2%
0.37
45 Jan 31, 2026 Team Merrimack @ Boston Jr Dogs 4–2
78.3%
11.7%
0.35
46 Dec 07, 2025 Team Boston @ Providence 3–7
13.1%
78.3%
0.35
47 Feb 22, 2026 Team Merrimack @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 5–1
79.5%
10.7%
0.33
48 Oct 12, 2025 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2–4
10.1%
80.1%
0.32
49 Dec 27, 2025 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Providence 5–3
80.4%
11.1%
0.31
50 Nov 30, 2025 Team Boston @ Young Guns 2–10
11.1%
81.1%
0.30
51 Oct 04, 2025 Providence @ South Shore Knights 5–3
81.4%
11.1%
0.30
52 Jan 24, 2026 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Team Merrimack 0–2
8.3%
83.5%
0.26
53 Nov 23, 2025 Team Merrimack @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 9–4
83.5%
7.9%
0.26
54 Feb 21, 2026 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Providence 9–5
84.1%
8.7%
0.25
55 Feb 01, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs @ Young Guns 10–1
84.5%
8.5%
0.24
56 Feb 15, 2026 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Boston 4–10
8.9%
84.7%
0.24
57 Nov 02, 2025 Providence @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–5
6.6%
86.9%
0.20
58 Jan 10, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs @ Providence 8–1
87.1%
7.0%
0.20
59 Jan 11, 2026 Providence @ South Shore Knights 6–5
87.8%
6.8%
0.19
60 Jan 25, 2026 Providence @ Boston Jr Dogs 3–11
6.2%
88.3%
0.18
61 Jan 24, 2026 South Shore Knights @ Young Guns 6–11
6.1%
88.7%
0.17
62 Feb 22, 2026 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs 0–7
5.7%
89.1%
0.17
63 Jan 10, 2026 Young Guns @ South Shore Knights 5–0
89.2%
5.8%
0.16
64 Nov 16, 2025 Minuteman Sparks @ Providence 1–8
5.5%
90.0%
0.15
65 Feb 15, 2026 Providence @ Boston Jr Dogs 5–11
4.7%
90.9%
0.14
66 Dec 21, 2025 Providence @ Minuteman Sparks 15–1
93.0%
3.6%
0.10
67 Feb 01, 2026 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Team Boston 8–0
93.0%
3.3%
0.10
68 Jan 10, 2026 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–6
3.2%
93.3%
0.10
69 Dec 21, 2025 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 4–7
2.7%
94.0%
0.09
70 Jan 17, 2026 Minuteman Sparks @ Young Guns 1–13
2.8%
94.3%
0.08
71 Jan 24, 2026 Providence @ Minuteman Sparks 11–2
94.5%
2.8%
0.08
72 Feb 07, 2026 Providence @ Minuteman Sparks 7–4
95.2%
2.4%
0.07
73 Oct 19, 2025 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 0–5
1.9%
95.3%
0.07
74 Feb 22, 2026 Minuteman Sparks @ Providence 4–12
2.2%
95.5%
0.07
75 Jan 31, 2026 Minuteman Sparks @ Young Guns 1–15
1.9%
96.0%
0.06
76 Dec 06, 2025 Young Guns @ Minuteman Sparks 6–5
96.3%
1.8%
0.05
77 Nov 30, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 1–9
1.6%
96.3%
0.05
78 Jan 24, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 9–4
96.7%
1.4%
0.05
79 Sep 28, 2025 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Providence 7–2
96.7%
1.3% ⚠
0.05
80 Feb 08, 2026 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–8
1.3%
97.0%
0.04
81 Oct 18, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs @ Providence 5–0
97.2%
1.2%
0.04
82 Jan 18, 2026 Team Merrimack @ Young Guns 12–1
97.5%
1.0%
0.04
83 Nov 22, 2025 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Team Boston 4–3
97.5%
1.0%
0.04
84 Jan 31, 2026 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–12
0.8%
98.0%
0.03
85 Jan 31, 2026 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 1–2
0.8%
98.0%
0.03
86 Feb 06, 2026 Young Guns @ Team Merrimack 1–11
0.7%
98.2%
0.03
87 Nov 08, 2025 Team Merrimack @ Providence 9–1
98.3%
0.6%
0.02
88 Oct 18, 2025 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 16–3
98.6%
0.5%
0.02
89 Dec 28, 2025 Team Merrimack @ Providence 8–4
98.8%
0.5%
0.02
90 Nov 01, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs @ Young Guns 5–3
98.9%
0.3%
0.02
91 Feb 14, 2026 Providence @ Team Merrimack 4–9
0.4%
99.0%
0.02
92 Nov 15, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs @ South Shore Knights 11–1
99.0%
0.4%
0.01
93 Dec 06, 2025 Providence @ Team Merrimack 3–7
0.3%
99.1%
0.01
94 Sep 28, 2025 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs 1–6
0.3%
99.1% ⚠
0.01
95 Nov 29, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 8–2
99.1%
0.3%
0.01
96 Nov 16, 2025 Young Guns @ Team Merrimack 2–6
0.3%
99.1%
0.01
97 Oct 19, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs 1–14
0.3%
99.2%
0.01
98 Nov 02, 2025 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–8
0.3%
99.2%
0.01
99 Nov 23, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs @ South Shore Knights 12–2
99.4%
0.2%
0.01
100 Nov 23, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs 4–6
0.2%
99.4%
0.01
101 Nov 01, 2025 Minuteman Sparks @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–12
0.2%
99.4%
0.01
102 Dec 13, 2025 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 9–2
99.5%
0.2%
0.01
103 Nov 15, 2025 Minuteman Sparks @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 1–6
0.2%
99.5%
0.01
104 Oct 04, 2025 Team Merrimack @ Young Guns 13–2
99.6%
0.1%
0.01
105 Sep 27, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack 0–13
0.1%
99.6% ⚠
0.01
106 Oct 18, 2025 Team Merrimack @ Young Guns 12–1
99.7%
0.1%
0.00
107 Oct 05, 2025 Team Merrimack @ Providence 9–1
99.7%
0.1%
0.00
108 Jan 11, 2026 Team Merrimack @ Team Boston 8–1
99.8%
0.1%
0.00
109 Jan 18, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs @ Minuteman Sparks 9–0
99.8%
0.1%
0.00
110 Feb 07, 2026 Team Boston @ Team Merrimack 2–10
0.1%
99.8%
0.00
111 Feb 07, 2026 Team Boston @ Team Merrimack 2–9
0.1%
99.8%
0.00
112 Dec 28, 2025 Minuteman Sparks @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–3
0.0%
99.9%
0.00
113 Oct 12, 2025 Minuteman Sparks @ Boston Jr Dogs 1–12
0.0%
99.9%
0.00
114 Feb 21, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs @ Minuteman Sparks 12–0
99.9%
0.0%
0.00
115 Feb 21, 2026 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack 3–7
0.0%
99.9%
0.00
116 Nov 02, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack 2–6
0.0%
99.9%
0.00
117 Dec 14, 2025 Team Merrimack @ South Shore Knights 16–1
100.0%
0.0%
0.00
118 Nov 15, 2025 Team Merrimack @ Team Boston 15–1
100.0%
0.0%
0.00
119 Dec 07, 2025 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Merrimack 0–19
0.0%
100.0%
0.00
120 Feb 01, 2026 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Merrimack 1–14
0.0%
100.0%
0.00
121 Dec 20, 2025 Team Merrimack @ Minuteman Sparks 15–0
100.0%
0.0%
0.00
122 Dec 27, 2025 Team Merrimack @ Minuteman Sparks 9–1
100.0%
0.0%
0.00
123 Oct 11, 2025 Team Merrimack @ Minuteman Sparks 11–2
100.0%
0.0%
0.00