Upset Index

Games sorted by how surprising the result was, based on pre-game Dixon-Coles probabilities.

All Upsets only Low confidence
# Date Matchup Result Pre-game odds Surprisal (bits)
1 Dec 07, 2025 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–5
3.0%
92.5%
4.45 UPSET
2 Dec 07, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–2
5.9%
87.0%
4.07 UPSET
3 Dec 06, 2025 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–4
86.0%
7.4%
3.91 UPSET
4 Nov 29, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 2–2
83.2%
9.3%
3.74 UPSET
5 Nov 30, 2025 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ South Shore Kings 3–0
10.1%
76.8%
3.31 UPSET
6 Sep 27, 2025 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 5–1
11.2%
76.7% ⚠
3.16 UPSET
7 Nov 15, 2025 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 1–1
10.8%
76.6%
2.99 UPSET
8 Jan 04, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–1
12.3%
74.8%
2.96 UPSET
9 Dec 20, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 3–3
64.5%
20.8%
2.76 UPSET
10 Jan 31, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–4
22.5%
62.3%
2.71 UPSET
11 Oct 11, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 6–3
16.2%
74.2%
2.62 UPSET
12 Nov 22, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 3–2
16.7%
64.0%
2.59 UPSET
13 Feb 21, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 2–2
23.9%
59.2%
2.56 UPSET
14 Jan 10, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–3
67.4%
18.2%
2.46
15 Oct 04, 2025 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 1–1
64.1%
17.4%
2.44
16 Dec 27, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 4–4
33.5%
47.9%
2.43
17 Jan 31, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 4–1
20.4%
63.8%
2.30
18 Jan 24, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 0–0
53.7%
25.8%
2.29
19 Jan 11, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 2–3
61.9%
21.8%
2.20
20 Nov 15, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 2–3
55.9%
21.8%
2.19
21 Sep 28, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 2–2
65.4%
12.2%
2.16
22 Oct 11, 2025 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 1–3
54.0%
24.4%
2.04
23 Feb 08, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–1
25.6%
59.2%
1.97
24 Nov 16, 2025 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 5–1
30.7%
42.1%
1.70
25 Nov 23, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 1–3
45.8%
32.8%
1.61
26 Feb 14, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 3–1
33.4%
47.4%
1.58
27 Sep 27, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 2–0
38.0%
31.1% ⚠
1.39
28 Nov 22, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–2
40.4%
45.9%
1.31
29 Jan 10, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 5–2
42.1%
38.6%
1.25
30 Nov 29, 2025 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Top Gun 3–4
26.1%
44.7%
1.16
31 Nov 29, 2025 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Top Gun 1–4
26.1%
44.7%
1.16
32 Dec 14, 2025 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 5–3
45.6%
33.3%
1.13
33 Jan 18, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 2–4
33.9%
46.6%
1.10
34 Oct 19, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 4–6
31.0%
46.7%
1.10
35 Dec 13, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ South Shore Kings 7–4
50.2%
28.9%
0.99
36 Oct 19, 2025 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–5
27.7%
50.3%
0.99
37 Dec 07, 2025 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–4
27.6%
51.2%
0.97
38 Feb 22, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 4–2
51.5%
26.3%
0.96
39 Dec 14, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 4–3
52.3%
28.7%
0.94
40 Dec 27, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–6
32.0%
53.3%
0.91
41 Dec 27, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–1
53.3%
32.0%
0.91
42 Jan 31, 2026 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Top Gun 3–5
20.6%
53.7%
0.90
43 Nov 02, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 2–4
29.8%
57.4%
0.80
44 Dec 28, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 2–7
23.9%
58.7%
0.77
45 Feb 21, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 1–3
23.9%
59.2%
0.76
46 Jan 04, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 6–1
59.8%
26.0%
0.74
47 Jan 04, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 5–1
59.8%
26.0%
0.74
48 Nov 16, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 3–1
59.9%
26.3%
0.74
49 Oct 18, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–1
62.4%
16.7%
0.68
50 Jan 25, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ South Shore Kings 3–1
63.4%
19.3%
0.66
51 Nov 15, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 3–1
63.9%
24.8%
0.65
52 Sep 28, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 7–2
64.1%
21.1%
0.64
53 Oct 12, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 4–1
64.5%
20.3%
0.63
54 Oct 12, 2025 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 1–3
12.0%
65.4%
0.61
55 Feb 01, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 5–2
65.5%
14.4%
0.61
56 Dec 21, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Top Gun 7–1
67.0%
16.0%
0.58
57 Dec 06, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 2–4
18.8%
67.2%
0.57
58 Jan 03, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–7
17.4%
68.1%
0.56
59 Dec 06, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 6–1
68.3%
12.2%
0.55
60 Dec 27, 2025 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ South Shore Kings 1–4
14.0%
69.3%
0.53
61 Dec 27, 2025 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ South Shore Kings 0–3
14.0%
69.3%
0.53
62 Feb 08, 2026 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 2–6
15.0%
69.6%
0.52
63 Feb 21, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 7–2
71.5%
13.8%
0.48
64 Oct 11, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 4–3
71.7%
14.1%
0.48
65 Jan 24, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 5–2
72.0%
13.8%
0.47
66 Nov 02, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–4
13.3%
72.4%
0.47
67 Feb 01, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 3–2
74.0%
12.7%
0.43
68 Jan 17, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Top Gun 4–1
74.7%
10.9%
0.42
69 Dec 20, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 1–8
11.5%
76.2%
0.39
70 Nov 15, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 5–4
77.2%
9.9%
0.37
71 Nov 30, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–6
10.5%
77.5%
0.37
72 Nov 30, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 4–3
77.5%
10.5%
0.37
73 Feb 22, 2026 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 0–4
9.4%
78.2%
0.36
74 Nov 01, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 5–0
78.4%
9.9%
0.35
75 Nov 16, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–3
10.8%
78.9%
0.34
76 Nov 16, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–3
10.8%
78.9%
0.34
77 Feb 07, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–3
79.3%
10.2%
0.33
78 Jan 31, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–6
10.0%
79.5%
0.33
79 Jan 31, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 5–0
79.5%
10.0%
0.33
80 Feb 01, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 0–2
10.3%
79.7%
0.33
81 Feb 15, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–2
80.0%
10.0%
0.32
82 Oct 19, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–6
12.8%
80.1%
0.32
83 Nov 30, 2025 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 1–3
8.3%
81.1%
0.30
84 Dec 21, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 3–0
82.4%
9.5%
0.28
85 Oct 04, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 5–2
82.6%
10.4%
0.28
86 Oct 19, 2025 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–7
5.8%
82.7%
0.27
87 Sep 28, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 9–2
82.9%
8.3%
0.27
88 Sep 28, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 7–1
82.9%
8.3%
0.27
89 Nov 29, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–6
9.3%
83.2%
0.27
90 Feb 08, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–2
84.3%
7.0%
0.25
91 Jan 25, 2026 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Minuteman Flames 2–4
5.3%
84.5%
0.24
92 Feb 07, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–7
6.9%
85.3%
0.23
93 Dec 13, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 0–5
6.9%
85.4%
0.23
94 Oct 05, 2025 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–1
6.5%
85.7%
0.22
95 Dec 06, 2025 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–0
86.0%
7.4%
0.22
96 Jan 03, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 2–4
6.4%
86.0%
0.22
97 Jan 11, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 2–0
86.3%
4.3%
0.21
98 Feb 21, 2026 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 2–5
4.2%
86.6%
0.21
99 Dec 07, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–6
5.9%
87.0%
0.20
100 Oct 18, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 4–1
87.4%
5.1%
0.19
101 Oct 18, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 6–1
88.0%
5.3%
0.18
102 Dec 21, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 2–1
89.3%
3.8%
0.16
103 Dec 20, 2025 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–5
4.5%
89.7%
0.16
104 Sep 21, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 7–3
90.0%
3.0% ⚠
0.15
105 Sep 21, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 7–1
90.0%
3.0% ⚠
0.15
106 Nov 09, 2025 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Minuteman Flames 0–4
3.8%
90.0%
0.15
107 Feb 22, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 4–3
90.7%
3.4%
0.14
108 Jan 11, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 4–0
91.5%
3.5%
0.13
109 Nov 08, 2025 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–8
3.0%
92.3%
0.12
110 Jan 10, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 8–2
93.1%
2.1%
0.10
111 Oct 25, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–6
3.0%
93.8%
0.09
112 Jan 29, 2026 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–8
1.9%
94.0%
0.09
113 Oct 11, 2025 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–2
1.9%
94.7%
0.08
114 Nov 01, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 8–1
95.0%
1.6%
0.07
115 Nov 16, 2025 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–7
1.5%
95.2%
0.07
116 Jan 03, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 8–2
95.4%
1.5%
0.07
117 Dec 06, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–8
1.9%
95.5%
0.07
118 Dec 07, 2025 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 7–4
95.6%
1.4%
0.07
119 Dec 07, 2025 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 5–3
95.6%
1.4%
0.07
120 Feb 06, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 9–2
95.6%
1.8%
0.06
121 Nov 23, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–7
1.6%
96.0%
0.06
122 Jan 10, 2026 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–7
1.2%
96.2%
0.06
123 Nov 23, 2025 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–8
1.2%
96.4%
0.05
124 Dec 21, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 9–1
96.6%
1.2%
0.05
125 Jan 25, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–1
96.7%
1.3%
0.05
126 Dec 28, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 5–0
96.7%
0.8%
0.05
127 Nov 22, 2025 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ South Shore Kings 8–0
97.2%
1.2%
0.04
128 Nov 22, 2025 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ South Shore Kings 10–2
97.2%
1.2%
0.04
129 Jan 11, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–11
0.8%
97.5%
0.04
130 Feb 07, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 5–0
97.8%
0.5%
0.03
131 Sep 21, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 2–3
0.9%
98.0% ⚠
0.03
132 Nov 23, 2025 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun 8–0
99.2%
0.2%
0.01
133 Nov 23, 2025 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun 11–1
99.2%
0.2%
0.01
134 Nov 02, 2025 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 0–9
0.0%
99.9%
0.00
135 Nov 02, 2025 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 1–4
0.0%
99.9%
0.00