Upset Index

Games sorted by how surprising the result was, based on pre-game Dixon-Coles probabilities.

All Upsets only Low confidence
# Date Matchup Result Pre-game odds Surprisal (bits)
1 Oct 05, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs @ South Shore Knights 1–3
96.4%
1.5%
6.02 UPSET
2 Nov 08, 2025 Team Merrimack @ South Shore Knights 3–5
83.2%
8.9%
3.49 UPSET
3 Oct 19, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 1–1
75.7%
13.6%
3.22 UPSET
4 Nov 22, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 1–1
2.5%
86.7%
3.21 UPSET
5 Nov 09, 2025 Team Merrimack @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–2
23.6%
63.4%
2.94 UPSET
6 Jan 25, 2026 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack 1–0
14.6%
72.1%
2.77 UPSET
7 Oct 11, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Young Guns 4–4
18.6%
66.0%
2.70 UPSET
8 Feb 21, 2026 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs 3–3
23.2%
60.7%
2.64 UPSET
9 Nov 16, 2025 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 0–0
28.5%
54.8%
2.58 UPSET
10 Feb 15, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack 1–1
27.6%
55.3%
2.54 UPSET
11 Jan 24, 2026 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2–4
55.9%
18.2%
2.46
12 Dec 07, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 1–1
15.9%
65.7%
2.44
13 Nov 29, 2025 Young Guns @ Team Merrimack 3–1
18.6%
63.5%
2.43
14 Feb 08, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs @ Minuteman Sparks 2–2
49.8%
30.3%
2.33
15 Jan 11, 2026 Young Guns @ South Shore Knights 1–1
53.2%
26.8%
2.32
16 Jan 10, 2026 Team Merrimack @ Young Guns 2–2
56.9%
22.9%
2.30
17 Dec 21, 2025 Team Merrimack @ Minuteman Sparks 1–2
56.2%
20.4%
2.30
18 Nov 16, 2025 Minuteman Sparks @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–1
20.5%
65.0%
2.28
19 Dec 20, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights 1–1
62.9%
16.5%
2.28
20 Jan 10, 2026 South Shore Knights @ Minuteman Sparks 2–2
32.0%
45.6%
2.16
21 Jan 25, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 1–1
26.1%
51.2%
2.14
22 Oct 04, 2025 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 3–1
24.8%
59.5%
2.01
23 Jan 04, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs @ Young Guns 1–5
52.8%
26.4%
1.92
24 Jan 11, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs @ Minuteman Sparks 0–1
49.1%
28.0%
1.84
25 Feb 07, 2026 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Boston Jr Dogs 0–3
51.0%
28.4%
1.82
26 Nov 22, 2025 Team Merrimack @ Boston Jr Dogs 6–1
28.8%
54.7%
1.80
27 Feb 22, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs @ Young Guns 3–5
51.0%
30.4%
1.72
28 Sep 27, 2025 Minuteman Sparks @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 2–1
31.1%
47.6% ⚠
1.69
29 Dec 06, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 1–1
46.5%
22.2%
1.68
30 Feb 01, 2026 Minuteman Sparks @ South Shore Knights 1–2
47.7%
32.2%
1.64
31 Nov 30, 2025 Young Guns @ Minuteman Sparks 3–1
32.3%
37.7%
1.63
32 Dec 28, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2–0
32.9%
37.5%
1.61
33 Dec 07, 2025 Minuteman Sparks @ Young Guns 2–3
34.5%
34.5%
1.54
34 Dec 06, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack 0–2
46.4%
36.2%
1.46
35 Dec 27, 2025 Team Merrimack @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 2–1
36.4%
34.4%
1.46
36 Feb 01, 2026 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack 1–3
40.6%
36.9%
1.44
37 Oct 12, 2025 Minuteman Sparks @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 3–1
37.4%
40.2%
1.42
38 Feb 15, 2026 Minuteman Sparks @ Young Guns 5–3
38.5%
38.8%
1.38
39 Jan 11, 2026 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2–1
40.2%
32.1%
1.31
40 Jan 03, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 0–1
30.4%
41.0%
1.29
41 Oct 26, 2025 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Merrimack 0–2
32.8%
41.8%
1.26
42 Oct 18, 2025 Team Merrimack @ Boston Jr Dogs 0–4
43.4%
42.4%
1.24
43 Dec 21, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Young Guns 4–0
42.4%
23.9%
1.24
44 Sep 28, 2025 Minuteman Sparks @ Young Guns 2–1
44.8%
33.9%
1.16
45 Nov 01, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Young Guns 1–0
45.6%
30.9%
1.13
46 Feb 01, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs @ Young Guns 5–2
46.4%
34.1%
1.11
47 Dec 14, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Minuteman Sparks 2–3
28.2%
48.3%
1.05
48 Jan 04, 2026 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 3–0
50.8%
19.3%
0.98
49 Jan 03, 2026 Team Merrimack @ Minuteman Sparks 5–0
52.0%
22.8%
0.94
50 Dec 20, 2025 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs 1–3
26.0%
52.5%
0.93
51 Dec 13, 2025 Young Guns @ South Shore Knights 2–0
52.8%
27.7%
0.92
52 Feb 08, 2026 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Young Guns 2–1
54.9%
23.6%
0.87
53 Jan 31, 2026 Team Merrimack @ Young Guns 4–1
57.2%
24.5%
0.81
54 Nov 29, 2025 Minuteman Sparks @ South Shore Knights 3–2
57.6%
21.4%
0.80
55 Nov 15, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–3
26.3%
58.0%
0.79
56 Nov 08, 2025 Minuteman Sparks @ Boston Jr Dogs 1–4
25.1%
59.3%
0.75
57 Feb 14, 2026 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Merrimack 0–2
21.0%
60.4%
0.73
58 Sep 14, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 1–7
39.5%
60.5% ⚠
0.73
59 Jan 24, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs @ South Shore Knights 2–1
60.6%
23.7%
0.72
60 Oct 11, 2025 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Merrimack 1–2
22.3%
60.6%
0.72
61 Nov 15, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Minuteman Sparks 2–3
23.8%
60.9%
0.72
62 Nov 02, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights 4–0
67.5%
19.1%
0.57
63 Sep 27, 2025 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–6
19.1%
70.2% ⚠
0.51
64 Feb 07, 2026 Team Merrimack @ South Shore Knights 4–0
70.4%
16.0%
0.51
65 Oct 05, 2025 Team Merrimack @ Young Guns 2–1
70.7%
17.7%
0.50
66 Dec 13, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–4
5.7%
74.6%
0.42
67 Sep 21, 2025 Young Guns @ South Shore Knights 3–1
78.8%
11.1% ⚠
0.34
68 Dec 07, 2025 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack 3–2
83.0%
5.5%
0.27
69 Jan 04, 2026 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack 4–1
83.4%
5.4%
0.26
70 Dec 21, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–4
5.6%
83.6%
0.26
71 Oct 19, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack 3–4
7.4%
85.1%
0.23
72 Dec 20, 2025 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 4–1
86.8%
2.5%
0.20
73 Nov 23, 2025 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 1–4
1.8%
87.5%
0.19
74 Dec 14, 2025 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Young Guns 3–1
87.5%
2.7%
0.19
75 Oct 04, 2025 Providence @ South Shore Knights 0–6
3.4%
89.1%
0.17
76 Nov 01, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–4
4.8%
89.2%
0.17
77 Oct 04, 2025 Team Merrimack @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 1–9
4.0%
89.2%
0.16
78 Jan 10, 2026 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Boston Jr Dogs 7–0
90.0%
2.9%
0.15
79 Nov 09, 2025 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 3–1
90.2%
3.9%
0.15
80 Nov 02, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 2–4
4.0%
90.7%
0.14
81 Jan 24, 2026 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Young Guns 6–1
91.7%
2.1%
0.12
82 Sep 27, 2025 Team Merrimack @ South Shore Knights 8–1
92.0%
3.0% ⚠
0.12
83 Feb 07, 2026 Providence @ Minuteman Sparks 0–3
2.1%
93.0%
0.11
84 Nov 15, 2025 Team Merrimack @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–2
2.8%
93.2%
0.10
85 Oct 26, 2025 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 2–0
93.9%
1.0%
0.09
86 Feb 21, 2026 Young Guns @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–2
1.6%
94.4%
0.08
87 Jan 04, 2026 South Shore Knights @ Providence 6–0
94.5%
1.7%
0.08
88 Feb 14, 2026 Providence @ Young Guns 1–5
1.7%
94.6%
0.08
89 Jan 03, 2026 Young Guns @ Providence 3–2
94.7%
0.9%
0.08
90 Dec 13, 2025 Providence @ Minuteman Sparks 1–4
0.6%
94.9%
0.08
91 Jan 25, 2026 Young Guns @ Providence 3–1
96.5%
0.8%
0.05
92 Sep 28, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Providence 9–0
96.7%
0.8%
0.05
93 Oct 05, 2025 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 6–1
96.7%
0.8%
0.05
94 Dec 21, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Providence 5–1
96.8%
0.7%
0.05
95 Feb 22, 2026 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights 5–1
96.8%
0.9%
0.05
96 Feb 08, 2026 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–5
0.9%
96.8%
0.05
97 Feb 21, 2026 Providence @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 0–4
0.7%
96.9%
0.05
98 Jan 10, 2026 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Providence 8–0
96.9%
0.4%
0.04
99 Jan 03, 2026 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–5
0.7%
97.0%
0.04
100 Dec 14, 2025 Providence @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 0–6
0.3%
97.0%
0.04
101 Oct 11, 2025 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Boston Jr Dogs 4–1
97.0%
1.0%
0.04
102 Nov 22, 2025 Minuteman Sparks @ Providence 3–1
97.4%
0.2%
0.04
103 Oct 18, 2025 Young Guns @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–4
0.7%
97.5%
0.04
104 Oct 18, 2025 Providence @ Minuteman Sparks 0–6
0.3%
97.7%
0.03
105 Dec 06, 2025 Young Guns @ Providence 4–0
97.7%
0.3%
0.03
106 Nov 23, 2025 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Providence 6–0
98.2%
0.1%
0.03
107 Nov 15, 2025 Providence @ Young Guns 0–5
0.5%
98.2%
0.03
108 Nov 09, 2025 Providence @ South Shore Knights 2–6
0.4%
98.5%
0.02
109 Jan 31, 2026 Providence @ Boston Jr Dogs 3–4
0.4%
98.5%
0.02
110 Dec 06, 2025 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights 5–3
98.8%
0.2%
0.02
111 Dec 06, 2025 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights 3–1
98.8%
0.2%
0.02
112 Feb 08, 2026 Providence @ Team Merrimack 0–6
0.2%
99.1%
0.01
113 Jan 24, 2026 Team Merrimack @ Providence 7–1
99.4%
0.1%
0.01
114 Dec 28, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs @ Providence 4–3
99.6%
0.1%
0.01
115 Dec 28, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs @ Providence 5–1
99.6%
0.1%
0.01
116 Dec 20, 2025 Team Merrimack @ Providence 6–0
99.6%
0.1%
0.01
117 Nov 30, 2025 Providence @ Team Merrimack 1–8
0.0%
99.7%
0.00
118 Dec 07, 2025 Providence @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–6
0.0%
99.8%
0.00
119 Oct 12, 2025 Providence @ Team Merrimack 0–10
0.0%
99.9%
0.00
120 Jan 11, 2026 Providence @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–18
0.0%
100.0%
0.00
121 Feb 01, 2026 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Providence 4–1
100.0%
0.0%
0.00
122 Nov 08, 2025 Providence @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–10
0.0%
100.0%
0.00
123 Oct 19, 2025 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Providence 6–0
100.0%
0.0%
0.00
124 Sep 27, 2025 Providence @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–8
0.0%
100.0% ⚠
0.00