Upset Index

Games sorted by how surprising the result was, based on pre-game Dixon-Coles probabilities.

All Upsets only Low confidence
# Date Matchup Result Pre-game odds Surprisal (bits)
1 Nov 08, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Young Guns 2–1
1.2%
96.5%
6.41 UPSET
2 Dec 07, 2025 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–3
94.4%
2.4%
4.98 UPSET
3 Oct 04, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Merrimack West 4–8
94.0%
3.4%
4.89 UPSET
4 Sep 27, 2025 South Shore Knights @ New England Jr Dogs 2–1
3.8%
92.9%
4.71 UPSET
5 Feb 07, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 4–3
4.8%
90.7%
4.38 UPSET
6 Oct 18, 2025 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 5–3
5.2%
90.9%
4.28 UPSET
7 Feb 01, 2026 MC Selects @ Providence (North) - Taylor 4–4
81.3%
11.9%
3.86 UPSET
8 Nov 15, 2025 MC Selects @ Young Guns 4–1
8.1%
84.3%
3.62 UPSET
9 Dec 14, 2025 MC Selects @ Providence (North) - Taylor 5–5
71.7%
19.4%
3.49 UPSET
10 Oct 11, 2025 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Team Merrimack West 11–11
26.4%
64.6%
3.47 UPSET
11 Nov 30, 2025 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–4
83.8%
9.1%
3.46 UPSET
12 Dec 06, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ New England Jr Dogs 4–4
21.8%
68.5%
3.35 UPSET
13 Dec 14, 2025 Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 7–7
60.1%
30.1%
3.35 UPSET
14 Nov 16, 2025 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 4–4
27.1%
61.9%
3.18 UPSET
15 Dec 20, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Providence (North) - Taylor 3–3
21.7%
67.1%
3.15 UPSET
16 Dec 06, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 2–2
22.0%
66.6%
3.13 UPSET
17 Dec 13, 2025 Team Boston @ Providence (North) - Taylor 4–4
68.5%
20.1%
3.12 UPSET
18 Oct 19, 2025 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 8–1
11.6%
81.7%
3.11 UPSET
19 Dec 07, 2025 Providence (North) - Taylor @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 3–3
36.9%
51.4%
3.09
20 Nov 29, 2025 Providence (North) - Taylor @ South Shore Knights 6–6
64.9%
23.3%
3.08 UPSET
21 Nov 02, 2025 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 4–4
60.9%
27.2%
3.07 UPSET
22 Feb 07, 2026 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Young Guns 0–0
12.6%
74.4%
2.94 UPSET
23 Jan 04, 2026 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 3–4
74.9%
14.5%
2.79 UPSET
24 Dec 06, 2025 MC Selects @ Team Boston 3–3
40.6%
44.9%
2.79
25 Feb 01, 2026 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–2
32.4%
52.4%
2.72 UPSET
26 Feb 14, 2026 New England Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 3–1
15.6%
73.2%
2.68 UPSET
27 Dec 27, 2025 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ New England Jr Dogs 2–2
41.5%
42.6%
2.66
28 Jan 11, 2026 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Young Guns 3–3
31.4%
52.5%
2.64 UPSET
29 Dec 21, 2025 Team Boston @ Young Guns 3–3
21.7%
62.0%
2.62 UPSET
30 Oct 18, 2025 Team Merrimack West @ MC Selects 9–3
16.3%
76.6%
2.62 UPSET
31 Feb 08, 2026 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 5–5
17.4%
66.3%
2.61 UPSET
32 Feb 15, 2026 Young Guns @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 2–2
68.8%
13.5%
2.50
33 Nov 23, 2025 New England Jr Dogs @ South Shore Knights 3–6
71.0%
17.8%
2.49
34 Dec 06, 2025 South Shore Knights @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 6–5
18.4%
69.9%
2.44
35 Jan 04, 2026 MC Selects @ Team Merrimack West 5–7
72.2%
19.6%
2.35
36 Jan 10, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ New England Jr Dogs 3–5
69.0%
20.8%
2.27
37 Feb 14, 2026 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ MC Selects 3–1
22.2%
63.8%
2.17
38 Nov 30, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Merrimack West 7–8
68.6%
22.2%
2.17
39 Oct 11, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 7–5
22.9%
65.9%
2.13
40 Nov 29, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack West 10–8
23.4%
67.6%
2.09
41 Jan 04, 2026 Providence (North) - Taylor @ South Shore Knights 0–7
62.6%
25.4%
1.98
42 Feb 22, 2026 New England Jr Dogs @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 5–2
26.4%
61.5%
1.92
43 Oct 18, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Boston 4–3
28.0%
57.7%
1.84
44 Oct 26, 2025 New England Jr Dogs @ Providence (North) - Taylor 3–4
60.4%
29.0%
1.79
45 Nov 22, 2025 MC Selects @ Team Boston 6–2
29.2%
57.2%
1.77
46 Nov 15, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ New England Jr Dogs 3–5
58.5%
29.6%
1.75
47 Feb 01, 2026 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 2–4
53.4%
30.5%
1.71
48 Oct 12, 2025 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 4–7
58.3%
31.4%
1.67
49 Dec 07, 2025 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 5–1
31.4%
52.8%
1.67
50 Jan 31, 2026 Team Merrimack West @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 2–6
53.8%
33.1%
1.60
51 Jan 11, 2026 Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 9–3
33.2%
56.4%
1.59
52 Oct 04, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ South Shore Knights 5–7
51.6%
34.1%
1.55
53 Feb 21, 2026 South Shore Knights @ Providence (North) - Taylor 3–2
34.5%
52.0%
1.53
54 Oct 25, 2025 Team Merrimack West @ Providence (North) - Taylor 4–7
55.3%
34.9%
1.52
55 Feb 15, 2026 MC Selects @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 10–1
35.5%
51.3%
1.49
56 Feb 21, 2026 Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 4–3
35.8%
53.5%
1.48
57 Nov 09, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 6–4
37.1%
49.1%
1.43
58 Jan 25, 2026 New England Jr Dogs @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 4–3
37.9%
46.0%
1.40
59 Dec 06, 2025 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Team Merrimack West 7–10
51.1%
38.6%
1.37
60 Sep 20, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Providence (North) - Taylor 6–8
49.4%
39.6% ⚠
1.34
61 Jan 10, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ South Shore Knights 1–5
46.0%
40.1%
1.32
62 Feb 07, 2026 New England Jr Dogs @ Providence (North) - Taylor 6–4
40.2%
47.5%
1.31
63 Jan 24, 2026 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Providence (North) - Taylor 7–4
41.0%
43.6%
1.29
64 Jan 31, 2026 Team Boston @ MC Selects 5–8
43.8%
41.9%
1.26
65 Jan 11, 2026 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 6–2
43.0%
40.8%
1.22
66 Oct 26, 2025 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Team Boston 3–4
39.9%
43.9%
1.19
67 Oct 25, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ MC Selects 7–5
44.2%
43.8%
1.18
68 Oct 05, 2025 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 7–5
44.7%
43.2%
1.16
69 Feb 21, 2026 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Team Boston 4–2
44.7%
38.2%
1.16
70 Dec 20, 2025 Team Merrimack West @ New England Jr Dogs 8–5
44.8%
44.3%
1.16
71 Nov 02, 2025 MC Selects @ New England Jr Dogs 8–3
45.2%
42.9%
1.14
72 Nov 30, 2025 Providence (North) - Taylor @ New England Jr Dogs 5–8
42.3%
45.7%
1.13
73 Dec 27, 2025 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Team Merrimack West 2–5
40.2%
46.4%
1.11
74 Nov 23, 2025 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 9–5
47.2%
40.3%
1.08
75 Feb 01, 2026 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 7–4
47.4%
38.5%
1.08
76 Nov 22, 2025 Team Merrimack West @ Providence (North) - Taylor 7–13
41.7%
47.4%
1.08
77 Dec 28, 2025 New England Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack West 3–13
40.1%
48.7%
1.04
78 Jan 31, 2026 New England Jr Dogs @ South Shore Knights 7–5
48.7%
36.8%
1.04
79 Sep 21, 2025 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 5–4
49.1%
36.6%
1.03
80 Feb 15, 2026 South Shore Knights @ New England Jr Dogs 2–3
35.7%
49.1%
1.03
81 Dec 14, 2025 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 8–5
50.2%
35.0%
0.99
82 Feb 14, 2026 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Young Guns 2–3
30.5%
52.0%
0.94
83 Oct 19, 2025 New England Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 1–9
34.3%
53.2%
0.91
84 Dec 28, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Boston 3–6
32.3%
53.8%
0.90
85 Dec 21, 2025 New England Jr Dogs @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–1
54.3%
34.1%
0.88
86 Dec 07, 2025 New England Jr Dogs @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–12
33.2%
54.3%
0.88
87 Oct 04, 2025 Young Guns @ Team Boston 6–1
54.9%
24.7%
0.86
88 Feb 08, 2026 New England Jr Dogs @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 6–3
55.4%
32.2%
0.85
89 Jan 25, 2026 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 7–2
56.0%
32.7%
0.84
90 Nov 08, 2025 Team Boston @ MC Selects 3–2
57.7%
29.3%
0.79
91 Feb 01, 2026 New England Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack West 2–5
31.2%
58.3%
0.78
92 Dec 07, 2025 Team Merrimack West @ South Shore Knights 5–1
58.4%
30.4%
0.78
93 Jan 04, 2026 Team Boston @ Young Guns 5–7
24.4%
58.9%
0.76
94 Dec 20, 2025 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Team Boston 1–2
24.5%
60.1%
0.74
95 Feb 08, 2026 MC Selects @ Young Guns 6–8
25.2%
60.6%
0.72
96 Nov 16, 2025 MC Selects @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 0–4
27.1%
61.6%
0.70
97 Dec 21, 2025 MC Selects @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 5–0
62.3%
24.7%
0.68
98 Feb 07, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ MC Selects 4–7
26.1%
62.9%
0.67
99 Nov 09, 2025 Team Merrimack West @ MC Selects 6–8
27.2%
63.3%
0.66
100 Nov 16, 2025 Team Boston @ New England Jr Dogs 6–3
63.6%
23.4%
0.65
101 Feb 08, 2026 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack West 5–7
25.2%
63.8%
0.65
102 Nov 01, 2025 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ MC Selects 9–4
63.9%
25.3%
0.65
103 Dec 14, 2025 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ South Shore Knights 2–1
65.1%
21.5%
0.62
104 Feb 22, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 2–8
19.8%
66.2%
0.59
105 Sep 28, 2025 New England Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 4–6
18.7%
66.6%
0.59
106 Dec 21, 2025 Team Merrimack West @ South Shore Knights 7–6
66.6%
22.9%
0.59
107 Jan 10, 2026 IHC East 17 - Bonito @ Team Boston 0–5
18.1%
66.8%
0.58
108 Nov 15, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack West 3–4
22.2%
67.4%
0.57
109 Jan 03, 2026 Team Boston @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 2–1
68.1%
17.2%
0.55
110 Jan 25, 2026 Team Merrimack West @ Team Boston 4–7
21.2%
68.5%
0.55
111 Sep 27, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Young Guns 2–4
17.1%
68.7%
0.54
112 Nov 08, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack West 4–7
22.1%
69.2%
0.53
113 Sep 21, 2025 Young Guns @ New England Jr Dogs 4–1
69.3%
17.9%
0.53
114 Dec 13, 2025 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 2–1
70.0%
18.6%
0.51
115 Dec 20, 2025 Young Guns @ MC Selects 4–3
70.6%
17.5%
0.50
116 Oct 04, 2025 New England Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 6–7
18.4%
71.0%
0.49
117 Oct 25, 2025 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 4–0
71.9%
15.4%
0.48
118 Jan 18, 2026 Team Merrimack West @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 5–4
72.5%
19.2%
0.46
119 Feb 14, 2026 Team Boston @ New England Jr Dogs 4–0
73.2%
15.6%
0.45
120 Feb 15, 2026 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Team Boston 4–5
15.6%
74.2%
0.43
121 Feb 22, 2026 MC Selects @ Team Merrimack West 11–3
74.3%
17.7%
0.43
122 Nov 01, 2025 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Team Boston 3–4
14.7%
75.4%
0.41
123 Jan 10, 2026 Providence (North) - Taylor @ MC Selects 2–12
16.1%
75.6%
0.40
124 Feb 15, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 10–3
75.7%
15.6%
0.40
125 Feb 07, 2026 Team Boston @ South Shore Knights 2–0
76.0%
13.4%
0.40
126 Dec 21, 2025 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Providence (North) - Taylor 10–3
76.3%
14.8%
0.39
127 Jan 25, 2026 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 5–1
76.4%
13.6%
0.39
128 Jan 03, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ South Shore Knights 4–3
76.4%
14.3%
0.39
129 Sep 27, 2025 Team Boston @ Team Merrimack West 10–1
76.8%
13.8%
0.38
130 Jan 24, 2026 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Team Merrimack West 8–4
76.8%
15.1%
0.38
131 Dec 13, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 5–7
14.8%
76.9%
0.38
132 Oct 25, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ New England Jr Dogs 3–8
14.6%
77.4%
0.37
133 Jan 10, 2026 Team Merrimack West @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 5–9
14.4%
77.7%
0.36
134 Jan 24, 2026 New England Jr Dogs @ MC Selects 1–8
13.8%
78.0%
0.36
135 Jan 03, 2026 New England Jr Dogs @ MC Selects 4–8
13.7%
78.1%
0.36
136 Jan 03, 2026 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 2–8
12.9%
79.0%
0.34
137 Feb 22, 2026 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ South Shore Knights 3–1
79.7%
10.7%
0.33
138 Dec 13, 2025 South Shore Knights @ MC Selects 1–10
11.7%
80.2%
0.32
139 Nov 30, 2025 Young Guns @ IHC East 17 - Bonito 4–3
81.2%
9.2%
0.30
140 Oct 26, 2025 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 6–2
81.7%
11.7%
0.29
141 Oct 26, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 0–2
9.8%
83.0%
0.27
142 Nov 22, 2025 Young Guns @ New England Jr Dogs 4–1
83.4%
8.6%
0.26
143 Feb 21, 2026 New England Jr Dogs @ Young Guns 0–3
7.6%
84.3%
0.25
144 Sep 27, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ MC Selects 5–12
9.2%
84.9%
0.24
145 Oct 12, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 3–6
8.5%
84.9%
0.24
146 Oct 12, 2025 Team Merrimack West @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 5–6
8.7%
86.0%
0.22
147 Nov 23, 2025 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Young Guns 1–7
7.0%
86.3%
0.21
148 Nov 01, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Young Guns 4–6
6.4%
86.4%
0.21
149 Jan 03, 2026 Team Merrimack West @ Young Guns 4–6
7.0%
87.3%
0.20
150 Feb 22, 2026 Young Guns @ Providence (North) - Taylor 5–2
87.3%
6.4%
0.20
151 Jan 04, 2026 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 5–3
87.8%
6.7%
0.19
152 Oct 18, 2025 New England Jr Dogs @ Young Guns 3–4
5.7%
87.9%
0.19
153 Nov 02, 2025 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 7–6
87.9%
6.1%
0.19
154 Oct 25, 2025 Team Boston @ South Shore Knights 3–1
88.4%
5.5%
0.18
155 Nov 22, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 1–4
5.6%
88.6%
0.18
156 Oct 04, 2025 Providence (North) - Taylor @ MC Selects 4–5
7.0%
89.0%
0.17
157 Jan 31, 2026 Providence (North) - Taylor @ Young Guns 3–5
5.5%
89.1%
0.17
158 Sep 28, 2025 MC Selects @ South Shore Knights 10–3
89.3%
6.4%
0.16
159 Dec 06, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Young Guns 2–7
3.9%
90.4%
0.15
160 Sep 21, 2025 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 2–3
4.2%
90.7%
0.14
161 Oct 05, 2025 Team Boston @ Providence (North) - Taylor 6–2
90.7%
4.8%
0.14
162 Nov 15, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum 1–9
5.1%
90.7%
0.14
163 Jan 24, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Young Guns 1–9
4.4%
90.8%
0.14
164 Feb 14, 2026 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Young Guns 2–10
3.9%
91.5%
0.13
165 Nov 02, 2025 Young Guns @ Providence (North) - Taylor 5–1
92.8%
3.3%
0.11
166 Nov 16, 2025 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 9–3
95.5%
1.9%
0.07
167 Oct 05, 2025 Bay State Waves 2017 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 7–2
96.1%
2.0%
0.06
168 Oct 05, 2025 Young Guns @ South Shore Knights 8–1
96.5%
1.2%
0.05
169 Sep 28, 2025 Young Guns @ Team Merrimack West 7–2
97.9%
0.9%
0.03
170 Sep 20, 2025 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ South Shore Knights 7–3
99.8%
0.1% ⚠
0.00