Upset Index

Games sorted by how surprising the result was, based on pre-game Dixon-Coles probabilities.

All Upsets only Low confidence
# Date Matchup Result Pre-game odds Surprisal (bits)
1 Jan 17, 2026 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 8–5
1.8%
96.1%
5.79 UPSET
2 Dec 14, 2025 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 3–6
94.4%
2.9%
5.13 UPSET
3 Jan 10, 2026 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Little Stars - Laverty 4–4
4.2%
92.4%
4.88 UPSET
4 Oct 19, 2025 Little Stars - Laverty @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 3–3
92.6%
3.6%
4.70 UPSET
5 Dec 07, 2025 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Little Stars - Laverty 10–5
4.0%
92.4%
4.66 UPSET
6 Sep 20, 2025 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Little Stars - Laverty 2–2
4.5%
91.3% ⚠
4.60 UPSET
7 Oct 26, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Little Stars - Laverty 8–6
4.5%
91.5%
4.47 UPSET
8 Feb 14, 2026 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Shamrocks - Cooke 3–3
90.7%
4.4%
4.34 UPSET
9 Oct 18, 2025 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 3–3
6.6%
87.9%
4.17 UPSET
10 Oct 04, 2025 Little Stars - Laverty @ Spartans - Staubitz 9–4
5.6%
89.4%
4.15 UPSET
11 Oct 11, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 4–7
86.4%
7.4%
3.76 UPSET
12 Sep 14, 2025 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Spartans - Staubitz 3–2
7.6%
92.4% ⚠
3.71 UPSET
13 Dec 20, 2025 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 6–3
8.2%
85.8%
3.61 UPSET
14 Jan 18, 2026 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 9–8
8.5%
85.6%
3.55 UPSET
15 Feb 22, 2026 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 6–4
9.1%
84.1%
3.46 UPSET
16 Jan 18, 2026 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 2–2
77.2%
13.3%
3.39 UPSET
17 Dec 07, 2025 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 1–4
80.9%
11.8%
3.09 UPSET
18 Nov 02, 2025 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Little Stars - Laverty 4–3
12.1%
79.6%
3.05 UPSET
19 Jan 25, 2026 Little Stars - Laverty @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 6–6
62.9%
24.9%
3.04 UPSET
20 Feb 21, 2026 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Shamrocks - Cooke 3–3
67.9%
19.9%
3.03 UPSET
21 Oct 04, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 5–5
59.2%
27.3%
2.88 UPSET
22 Jan 11, 2026 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 4–2
20.4%
66.9%
2.29
23 Jan 03, 2026 Little Stars - Laverty @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 3–1
23.9%
64.9%
2.07
24 Oct 25, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Shamrocks - Cooke 1–2
62.5%
26.0%
1.94
25 Dec 06, 2025 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Shamrocks - Cooke 5–4
27.3%
59.8%
1.87
26 Feb 08, 2026 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 5–3
28.7%
59.2%
1.80
27 Dec 27, 2025 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 3–2
31.2%
55.9%
1.68
28 Feb 14, 2026 Little Stars - Laverty @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 1–11
47.6%
40.2%
1.31
29 Feb 07, 2026 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Shamrocks - Cooke 2–7
46.5%
40.2%
1.31
30 Feb 15, 2026 Little Stars - Laverty @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 7–6
40.4%
47.4%
1.31
31 Jan 03, 2026 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 1–5
45.8%
41.0%
1.28
32 Jan 24, 2026 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 8–6
42.4%
46.3%
1.24
33 Jan 24, 2026 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 9–4
42.4%
46.3%
1.24
34 Feb 08, 2026 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Shamrocks - Cooke 10–3
44.4%
42.1%
1.17
35 Feb 07, 2026 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Shamrocks - Cooke 10–1
46.5%
40.2%
1.10
36 Sep 27, 2025 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 4–3
47.4%
38.7% ⚠
1.08
37 Dec 06, 2025 Little Stars - Laverty @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 1–10
36.3%
51.0%
0.97
38 Nov 16, 2025 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Shamrocks - Cooke 1–6
28.4%
57.7%
0.79
39 Jan 17, 2026 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 4–7
29.2%
58.2%
0.78
40 Feb 07, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 8–7
59.1%
28.6%
0.76
41 Feb 01, 2026 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Little Stars - Laverty 5–3
63.2%
24.6%
0.66
42 Jan 10, 2026 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 8–3
63.3%
25.3%
0.66
43 Jan 31, 2026 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 3–4
22.3%
64.7%
0.63
44 Feb 22, 2026 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Little Stars - Laverty 3–2
65.6%
22.6%
0.61
45 Dec 21, 2025 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Little Stars - Laverty 5–7
21.7%
67.0%
0.58
46 Nov 30, 2025 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 3–4
21.9%
67.3%
0.57
47 Jan 24, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 2–5
21.5%
67.4%
0.57
48 Nov 01, 2025 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 2–9
20.1%
67.8%
0.56
49 Nov 15, 2025 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Shamrocks - Cooke 7–2
67.9%
19.9%
0.56
50 Feb 01, 2026 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 5–2
68.7%
20.9%
0.54
51 Sep 28, 2025 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 6–1
70.2%
18.9% ⚠
0.51
52 Sep 28, 2025 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 4–3
70.6%
18.6% ⚠
0.50
53 Jan 04, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Shamrocks - Cooke 8–0
72.7%
16.8%
0.46
54 Nov 30, 2025 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 6–5
73.4%
16.4%
0.45
55 Nov 09, 2025 Spartans - Staubitz @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 7–0
74.4%
16.4%
0.43
56 Sep 21, 2025 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Little Stars - Laverty 2–10
15.1%
75.3% ⚠
0.41
57 Nov 08, 2025 Spartans - Staubitz @ Little Stars - Laverty 6–2
75.8%
15.6%
0.40
58 Feb 08, 2026 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Spartans - Staubitz 3–6
13.5%
76.8%
0.38
59 Jan 04, 2026 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 3–4
13.1%
77.3%
0.37
60 Nov 09, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Little Stars - Laverty 4–9
13.3%
78.8%
0.34
61 Dec 20, 2025 Little Stars - Laverty @ Shamrocks - Cooke 7–3
79.6%
12.1%
0.33
62 Nov 15, 2025 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 1–12
12.3%
80.0%
0.32
63 Dec 21, 2025 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 9–10
12.2%
80.5%
0.31
64 Dec 14, 2025 Spartans - Staubitz @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 5–2
80.9%
11.3%
0.31
65 Feb 01, 2026 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 5–12
12.1%
80.9%
0.31
66 Oct 19, 2025 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 0–9
10.2%
82.2%
0.28
67 Oct 12, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 9–14
9.8%
82.6%
0.28
68 Feb 08, 2026 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Little Stars - Laverty 4–8
10.8%
82.6%
0.28
69 Dec 07, 2025 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 5–3
82.8%
10.7%
0.27
70 Nov 08, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 3–4
9.7%
83.8%
0.25
71 Feb 21, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 13–3
85.2%
9.1%
0.23
72 Jan 11, 2026 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 1–8
8.3%
85.9%
0.22
73 Jan 31, 2026 Little Stars - Laverty @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 5–3
86.7%
7.9%
0.21
74 Nov 29, 2025 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Little Stars - Laverty 4–6
7.1%
86.8%
0.20
75 Dec 27, 2025 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Little Stars - Laverty 7–8
7.5%
87.5%
0.19
76 Jan 03, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 8–2
87.5%
7.4%
0.19
77 Jan 03, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 11–4
87.5%
7.4%
0.19
78 Jan 10, 2026 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Shamrocks - Cooke 8–1
89.1%
5.3%
0.17
79 Dec 21, 2025 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 1–3
5.5%
89.1%
0.17
80 Nov 01, 2025 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Little Stars - Laverty 3–8
5.0%
90.0%
0.15
81 Jan 24, 2026 Little Stars - Laverty @ Spartans - Staubitz 1–7
4.3%
91.8%
0.12
82 Jan 31, 2026 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 6–1
91.8%
4.3%
0.12
83 Feb 15, 2026 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 9–2
91.9%
4.2%
0.12
84 Jan 11, 2026 Spartans - Staubitz @ Little Stars - Laverty 7–3
92.3%
4.0%
0.12
85 Jan 10, 2026 Little Stars - Laverty @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 6–2
92.4%
4.2%
0.11
86 Feb 21, 2026 Little Stars - Laverty @ Spartans - Staubitz 2–7
3.7%
92.7%
0.11
87 Jan 11, 2026 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 0–9
3.7%
93.0%
0.11
88 Dec 07, 2025 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Spartans - Staubitz 2–8
2.6%
94.4%
0.08
89 Nov 16, 2025 Bay State Waves 2017 UG @ Spartans - Staubitz 2–8
2.7%
94.4%
0.08
90 Jan 31, 2026 Spartans - Staubitz @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 5–4
94.8%
2.6%
0.08
91 Oct 18, 2025 Spartans - Staubitz @ Shamrocks - Cooke 11–2
95.0%
2.3%
0.07
92 Feb 22, 2026 Spartans - Staubitz @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 6–0
95.3%
2.1%
0.07
93 Dec 20, 2025 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 3–6
2.2%
95.6%
0.07
94 Jan 17, 2026 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 10–2
96.1%
1.8%
0.06
95 Dec 20, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko @ Spartans - Staubitz 2–6
1.7%
96.3%
0.05
96 Oct 05, 2025 Spartans - Staubitz @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 10–6
96.5%
1.6%
0.05
97 Sep 21, 2025 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 1–8
1.5%
96.8% ⚠
0.05
98 Nov 29, 2025 Minuteman Sparks - Griffin @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 12–4
96.8%
1.4%
0.05
99 Jan 03, 2026 Spartans - Staubitz @ Bay State Waves 2017 UG 9–3
96.9%
1.3%
0.05
100 Nov 23, 2025 Spartans - Staubitz @ Boston Jr Terriers White - Darmetko 7–2
97.0%
1.4%
0.04
101 Nov 02, 2025 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Spartans - Staubitz 2–14
0.9%
97.7%
0.03
102 Nov 23, 2025 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Little Stars - Laverty 4–7
0.9%
97.9%
0.03
103 Oct 18, 2025 Little Stars - Laverty @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 9–1
98.2%
0.7%
0.03
104 Sep 21, 2025 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Spartans - Staubitz 1–11
0.6%
98.3% ⚠
0.03
105 Feb 01, 2026 Shamrocks - Cooke @ Spartans - Staubitz 2–9
0.4%
98.9%
0.02
106 Nov 22, 2025 Spartans - Staubitz @ Shamrocks - Cooke 8–1
99.1%
0.4%
0.01
107 Feb 15, 2026 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Spartans - Staubitz 0–6
0.2%
99.5%
0.01
108 Feb 15, 2026 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Spartans - Staubitz 4–12
0.2%
99.5%
0.01
109 Oct 25, 2025 Spartans - Staubitz @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 9–2
99.5%
0.2%
0.01
110 Dec 13, 2025 Providence (South) - Ciresi @ Minuteman Sparks - Griffin 1–10
0.1%
99.6%
0.01
111 Feb 07, 2026 Spartans - Staubitz @ Manchester Inferno - Michaud 9–1
99.6%
0.1%
0.01
112 Dec 13, 2025 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Spartans - Staubitz 2–19
0.1%
99.7%
0.00
113 Dec 21, 2025 Spartans - Staubitz @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 14–1
99.9%
0.0%
0.00
114 Jan 04, 2026 Spartans - Staubitz @ Providence (South) - Ciresi 5–3
99.9%
0.0%
0.00
115 Sep 20, 2025 Manchester Inferno - Michaud @ Spartans - Staubitz 1–10
0.0%
100.0% ⚠
0.00