Upset Index

Games sorted by how surprising the result was, based on pre-game Dixon-Coles probabilities.

All Upsets only Low confidence
# Date Matchup Result Pre-game odds Surprisal (bits)
1 Oct 18, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 2–3
92.4%
2.9%
5.13 UPSET
2 Feb 01, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 5–5
4.2%
91.4%
4.48 UPSET
3 Nov 22, 2025 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ South Shore Kings 6–6
86.6%
6.7%
3.91 UPSET
4 Jan 24, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 1–1
5.8%
87.3%
3.88 UPSET
5 Jan 24, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–4
86.0%
6.6%
3.76 UPSET
6 Jan 18, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–5
83.9%
8.0%
3.64 UPSET
7 Nov 16, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2–2
79.1%
11.3%
3.39 UPSET
8 Dec 06, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 6–6
78.7%
11.7%
3.38 UPSET
9 Oct 18, 2025 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Mid Fairfield 2015 3–2
9.7%
83.2%
3.37 UPSET
10 Dec 21, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 4–4
11.6%
78.2%
3.30 UPSET
11 Feb 21, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 5–4
10.7%
80.4%
3.23 UPSET
12 Nov 09, 2025 Top Gun @ Mid Fairfield 2015 2–2
16.7%
70.8%
3.00 UPSET
13 Dec 20, 2025 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 2–2
61.2%
25.3%
2.89 UPSET
14 Jan 25, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ South Shore Kings 7–7
67.8%
18.3%
2.86 UPSET
15 Jan 24, 2026 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 2–2
59.3%
26.9%
2.86 UPSET
16 Oct 19, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–3
26.2%
59.8%
2.83 UPSET
17 Feb 07, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 2–2
25.0%
60.8%
2.83 UPSET
18 Nov 01, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 2–2
18.9%
66.9%
2.81 UPSET
19 Jan 04, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Top Gun 2–2
19.9%
65.6%
2.78 UPSET
20 Nov 22, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–4
50.1%
35.2%
2.76
21 Oct 12, 2025 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–4
74.0%
14.9%
2.75 UPSET
22 Feb 06, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–2
58.0%
26.5%
2.69 UPSET
23 Oct 26, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–4
42.1%
42.0%
2.65
24 Feb 07, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 4–6
70.3%
17.6%
2.51 UPSET
25 Feb 22, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 6–4
18.9%
67.8%
2.40
26 Dec 13, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 3–4
67.9%
20.7%
2.27
27 Sep 27, 2025 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 2–3
62.3%
20.9% ⚠
2.26
28 Oct 11, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 4–6
64.2%
21.1%
2.25
29 Nov 08, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 3–2
22.4%
63.0%
2.16
30 Feb 01, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 4–2
24.3%
53.6%
2.04
31 Dec 28, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 3–5
58.2%
27.3%
1.87
32 Oct 12, 2025 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 1–4
56.3%
28.0%
1.84
33 Sep 28, 2025 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Islanders Hockey Club 5–3
29.4%
57.7%
1.77
34 Nov 02, 2025 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 3–4
53.4%
29.7%
1.75
35 Dec 07, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–2
29.8%
54.7%
1.75
36 Dec 21, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 7–3
31.7%
53.0%
1.66
37 Sep 27, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 3–0
35.0%
44.4% ⚠
1.51
38 Sep 28, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–3
50.2%
35.4%
1.50
39 Dec 06, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 8–0
35.7%
49.6%
1.49
40 Nov 15, 2025 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Top Gun 4–5
46.0%
36.8%
1.44
41 Nov 15, 2025 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Top Gun 1–2
46.0%
36.8%
1.44
42 Nov 29, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–8
47.1%
37.9%
1.40
43 Jan 10, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 4–1
38.2%
47.3%
1.39
44 Oct 18, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 2–5
43.4%
41.4%
1.27
45 Oct 18, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 1–3
43.4%
41.4%
1.27
46 Oct 05, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 2–6
37.3%
42.1%
1.25
47 Dec 07, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–4
38.7%
44.3%
1.17
48 Jan 11, 2026 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–2
45.3%
38.9%
1.14
49 Dec 07, 2025 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 7–3
47.1%
35.9%
1.09
50 Dec 07, 2025 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 4–2
47.1%
35.9%
1.09
51 Oct 18, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–2
49.7%
33.5%
1.01
52 Dec 20, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–7
34.3%
49.9%
1.00
53 Feb 08, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 5–2
50.8%
32.8%
0.98
54 Jan 31, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–5
32.6%
51.4%
0.96
55 Feb 08, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 4–1
51.9%
28.8%
0.95
56 Nov 22, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Top Gun 0–3
30.1%
52.5%
0.93
57 Feb 21, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–4
27.2%
53.7%
0.90
58 Nov 02, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 1–8
31.2%
54.9%
0.87
59 Nov 09, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–5
29.3%
55.0%
0.86
60 Jan 03, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 3–5
30.2%
55.5%
0.85
61 Nov 08, 2025 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–2
55.6%
29.7%
0.85
62 Oct 04, 2025 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 6–2
56.7%
25.0%
0.82
63 Nov 29, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 0–7
27.5%
57.4%
0.80
64 Nov 22, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–4
26.3%
58.3%
0.78
65 Nov 15, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 4–2
59.6%
25.4%
0.75
66 Dec 27, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ South Shore Kings 9–1
59.6%
25.8%
0.75
67 Jan 04, 2026 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Islanders Hockey Club 7–2
61.7%
26.3%
0.70
68 Nov 01, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 2–5
23.6%
61.7%
0.70
69 Nov 23, 2025 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Islanders Hockey Club 5–3
63.2%
24.8%
0.66
70 Dec 06, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Top Gun 3–4
20.3%
64.4%
0.63
71 Dec 07, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–5
22.8%
65.6%
0.61
72 Dec 20, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–5
20.4%
65.8%
0.60
73 Feb 22, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 2–5
21.4%
66.7%
0.58
74 Nov 02, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 2–1
70.4%
18.1%
0.51
75 Feb 08, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 3–2
70.7%
18.3%
0.50
76 Nov 08, 2025 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 0–6
16.7%
70.7%
0.50
77 Nov 09, 2025 Top Gun @ Mid Fairfield 2015 2–3
16.7%
70.8%
0.50
78 Jan 03, 2026 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 6–4
71.2%
16.7%
0.49
79 Jan 03, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 4–6
16.7%
71.2%
0.49
80 Jan 10, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 6–0
73.1%
15.1%
0.45
81 Dec 21, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 2–6
14.4%
75.0%
0.41
82 Oct 04, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 6–2
75.1%
14.3%
0.41
83 Oct 25, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 1–8
11.5%
77.5%
0.37
84 Oct 11, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 4–9
11.0%
78.9%
0.34
85 Oct 25, 2025 Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Islanders Hockey Club 6–4
79.4%
11.2%
0.33
86 Oct 25, 2025 Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Islanders Hockey Club 6–2
79.4%
11.2%
0.33
87 Feb 01, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 2–4
10.0%
79.9%
0.32
88 Oct 11, 2025 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Boston Jr Terriers 7–1
80.2%
10.6%
0.32
89 Dec 14, 2025 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ South Shore Kings 4–2
80.6%
11.0%
0.31
90 Nov 23, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 1–3
9.5%
81.0%
0.30
91 Oct 12, 2025 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–2
10.7%
81.5%
0.30
92 Jan 17, 2026 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 7–1
81.9%
9.3%
0.29
93 Jan 11, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–7
9.6%
82.7%
0.27
94 Nov 09, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 10–5
82.8%
8.8%
0.27
95 Oct 18, 2025 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Mid Fairfield 2015 2–3
9.7%
83.2%
0.26
96 Feb 01, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 2–9
8.6%
83.9%
0.25
97 Jan 03, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–1
84.0%
7.9%
0.25
98 Feb 07, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 7–1
84.4%
6.4%
0.24
99 Jan 31, 2026 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 8–1
84.7%
6.6%
0.24
100 Jan 11, 2026 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 1–8
7.0%
85.3%
0.23
101 Jan 24, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–3
6.6%
86.0%
0.22
102 Feb 21, 2026 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ South Shore Kings 4–3
86.1%
7.2%
0.22
103 Nov 30, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 5–4
87.3%
6.5%
0.20
104 Oct 05, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–2
87.4%
6.3%
0.19
105 Oct 19, 2025 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–0
87.8%
5.4%
0.19
106 Nov 01, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 8–4
88.1%
5.7%
0.18
107 Nov 01, 2025 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 9–2
88.1%
5.7%
0.18
108 Nov 08, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 0–9
5.5%
88.1%
0.18
109 Nov 16, 2025 Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–1
88.5%
5.1%
0.18
110 Nov 16, 2025 Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–5
88.5%
5.1%
0.18
111 Jan 11, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 2–8
5.4%
88.6%
0.17
112 Sep 21, 2025 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–2
88.7%
4.7% ⚠
0.17
113 Dec 14, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–4
5.2%
88.8%
0.17
114 Jan 04, 2026 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 7–0
90.8%
4.1%
0.14
115 Nov 30, 2025 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 6–5
91.0%
3.8%
0.14
116 Feb 01, 2026 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 6–2
91.4%
4.2%
0.13
117 Dec 06, 2025 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–3
91.6%
3.7%
0.13
118 Dec 06, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 2–7
3.7%
91.6%
0.13
119 Dec 13, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 4–10
3.8%
91.8%
0.12
120 Feb 22, 2026 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 2–4
2.8%
92.1%
0.12
121 Feb 22, 2026 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–0
92.1%
2.8%
0.12
122 Dec 14, 2025 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 0–5
3.0%
92.4%
0.11
123 Oct 19, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 3–4
2.1%
94.7%
0.08
124 Nov 23, 2025 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 0–8
1.7%
95.3%
0.07
125 Dec 13, 2025 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 7–2
95.9%
1.5%
0.06
126 Feb 21, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 0–11
1.4%
95.9%
0.06
127 Jan 10, 2026 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 5–0
96.4%
1.3%
0.05
128 Jan 31, 2026 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 2–8
1.4%
96.5%
0.05
129 Nov 16, 2025 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Minuteman Flames 8–1
96.7%
1.3%
0.05
130 Nov 09, 2025 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Minuteman Flames 7–4
97.3%
1.0%
0.04
131 Nov 15, 2025 Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Minuteman Flames 9–0
98.9%
0.4%
0.02
132 Nov 15, 2025 Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Minuteman Flames 10–0
98.9%
0.4%
0.02