The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS
1 Top Gun 36 26 6 4 158 70 56
2 Providence Capitals - Vanacore 37 24 7 6 182 105 54
3 Boston Jr Eagles 34 20 8 6 129 81 46
4 Islanders Hockey Club 37 16 17 4 149 142 36
5 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 37 13 16 8 133 121 34
6 Mid Fairfield 2015 14 12 1 1 78 29 25
7 South Shore Kings 37 9 22 6 111 170 24
8 Boston Jr Terriers 35 7 26 2 84 165 16
9 Minuteman Flames 35 4 28 3 74 215 11

Game Log

Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Feb 22 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 2–4
2.8%
92.6%
0.11
Feb 22 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 2–5
21.5%
66.9%
0.58
Feb 22 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 6–4
19.0%
68.3%
2.39
Feb 22 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–0
92.6%
2.8%
0.11
Feb 21 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 0–11
1.4%
96.2%
0.06
Feb 21 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ South Shore Kings 4–3
86.2%
7.2%
0.21
Feb 21 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 5–4
10.7%
80.6%
3.22 UPSET
Feb 21 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–4
27.8%
54.9%
0.86
Feb 08 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 5–2
51.3%
33.1%
0.96
Feb 08 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 4–1
53.0%
29.5%
0.91
Feb 08 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 3–2
70.8%
18.3%
0.50
Feb 07 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 4–6
70.7%
17.7%
2.50 UPSET
Feb 07 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 7–1
85.3%
6.6%
0.23
Feb 07 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 2–2
25.2%
61.2%
2.88 UPSET
Feb 06 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–2
58.5%
26.8%
2.77 UPSET
Feb 01 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 2–9
8.6%
84.1%
0.25
Feb 01 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 2–4
10.1%
80.4%
0.31
Feb 01 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 4–2
25.5%
55.6%
1.97
Feb 01 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 5–5
4.2%
91.5%
4.52 UPSET
Feb 01 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 6–2
91.5%
4.2%
0.13
Jan 31 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 2–8
1.4%
96.6%
0.05
Jan 31 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–5
32.9%
51.8%
0.95
Jan 31 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 8–1
85.4%
6.7%
0.23
Jan 25 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ South Shore Kings 7–7
68.5%
18.5%
2.94 UPSET
Jan 24 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–4
86.0%
6.6%
3.76 UPSET
Jan 24 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 2–2
59.3%
26.9%
2.86 UPSET
Jan 24 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 1–1
5.8%
87.3%
3.88 UPSET
Jan 24 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–3
6.6%
86.0%
0.22
Jan 18 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–5
83.9%
8.0%
3.64 UPSET
Jan 17 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 7–1
81.9%
9.3%
0.29
Jan 11 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–7
9.6%
82.7%
0.27
Jan 11 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 2–8
5.4%
88.6%
0.17
Jan 11 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 1–8
7.0%
85.3%
0.23
Jan 11 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–2
45.3%
38.9%
1.14
Jan 10 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 4–1
38.2%
47.3%
1.39
Jan 10 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 5–0
96.4%
1.3%
0.05
Jan 10 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 6–0
73.1%
15.1%
0.45
Jan 04 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Top Gun 2–2
19.9%
65.6%
2.78 UPSET
Jan 04 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 7–0
90.8%
4.1%
0.14
Jan 04 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Islanders Hockey Club 7–2
61.7%
26.3%
0.70
Jan 03 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–1
84.0%
7.9%
0.25
Jan 03 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 6–4
71.2%
16.7%
0.49
Jan 03 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 4–6
16.7%
71.2%
0.49
Jan 03 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 3–5
30.2%
55.5%
0.85
Dec 28 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 3–5
58.2%
27.3%
1.87
Dec 27 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ South Shore Kings 9–1
59.6%
25.8%
0.75
Dec 21 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 4–4
11.6%
78.2%
3.30 UPSET
Dec 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 7–3
31.7%
53.0%
1.66
Dec 21 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 2–6
14.4%
75.0%
0.41
Dec 20 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–7
34.3%
49.9%
1.00
Dec 20 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–5
20.4%
65.8%
0.60
Dec 20 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 2–2
61.2%
25.3%
2.89 UPSET
Dec 14 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–4
5.2%
88.8%
0.17
Dec 14 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ South Shore Kings 4–2
80.6%
11.0%
0.31
Dec 14 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 0–5
3.0%
92.4%
0.11
Dec 13 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 7–2
95.9%
1.5%
0.06
Dec 13 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 3–4
67.9%
20.7%
2.27
Dec 13 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 4–10
3.8%
91.8%
0.12
Dec 07 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 4–2
47.1%
35.9%
1.09
Dec 07 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–2
29.8%
54.7%
1.75
Dec 07 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–4
38.7%
44.3%
1.17
Dec 07 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 7–3
47.1%
35.9%
1.09
Dec 07 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–5
22.8%
65.6%
0.61
Dec 06 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–3
91.6%
3.7%
0.13
Dec 06 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Top Gun 3–4
20.3%
64.4%
0.63
Dec 06 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 8–0
35.7%
49.6%
1.49
Dec 06 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 6–6
78.7%
11.7%
3.38 UPSET
Dec 06 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 2–7
3.7%
91.6%
0.13
Nov 30 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 6–5
91.0%
3.8%
0.14
Nov 30 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 5–4
87.3%
6.5%
0.20
Nov 29 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 0–7
27.5%
57.4%
0.80
Nov 29 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–8
47.1%
37.9%
1.40
Nov 23 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Islanders Hockey Club 5–3
63.2%
24.8%
0.66
Nov 23 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 0–8
1.7%
95.3%
0.07
Nov 23 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 1–3
9.5%
81.0%
0.30
Nov 22 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–4
26.3%
58.3%
0.78
Nov 22 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Top Gun 0–3
30.1%
52.5%
0.93
Nov 22 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ South Shore Kings 6–6
86.6%
6.7%
3.91 UPSET
Nov 22 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–4
50.1%
35.2%
2.76
Nov 16 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Minuteman Flames 8–1
96.7%
1.3%
0.05
Nov 16 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2–2
79.1%
11.3%
3.39 UPSET
Nov 16 Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–1
88.5%
5.1%
0.18
Nov 16 Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–5
88.5%
5.1%
0.18
Nov 15 Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Minuteman Flames 9–0
98.9%
0.4%
0.02
Nov 15 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Top Gun 4–5
46.0%
36.8%
1.44
Nov 15 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Top Gun 1–2
46.0%
36.8%
1.44
Nov 15 Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Minuteman Flames 10–0
98.9%
0.4%
0.02
Nov 15 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 4–2
59.6%
25.4%
0.75
Nov 09 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Minuteman Flames 7–4
97.3%
1.0%
0.04
Nov 09 Top Gun @ Mid Fairfield 2015 2–2
16.7%
70.8%
3.00 UPSET
Nov 09 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 10–5
82.8%
8.8%
0.27
Nov 09 Top Gun @ Mid Fairfield 2015 2–3
16.7%
70.8%
0.50
Nov 09 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–5
29.3%
55.0%
0.86
Nov 08 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 0–6
16.7%
70.7%
0.50
Nov 08 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 0–9
5.5%
88.1%
0.18
Nov 08 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–2
55.6%
29.7%
0.85
Nov 08 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 3–2
22.4%
63.0%
2.16
Nov 02 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 2–1
70.4%
18.1%
0.51
Nov 02 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 3–4
53.4%
29.7%
1.75
Nov 02 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 1–8
31.2%
54.9%
0.87
Nov 01 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 2–5
23.6%
61.7%
0.70
Nov 01 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 2–2
18.9%
66.9%
2.81 UPSET
Nov 01 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 8–4
88.1%
5.7%
0.18
Nov 01 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 9–2
88.1%
5.7%
0.18
Oct 26 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–4
42.1%
42.0%
2.65
Oct 25 Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Islanders Hockey Club 6–4
79.4%
11.2%
0.33
Oct 25 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 1–8
11.5%
77.5%
0.37
Oct 25 Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Islanders Hockey Club 6–2
79.4%
11.2%
0.33
Oct 19 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–3
26.2%
59.8%
2.83 UPSET
Oct 19 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–0
87.8%
5.4%
0.19
Oct 19 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 3–4
2.1%
94.7%
0.08
Oct 18 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 2–3
92.4%
2.9%
5.13 UPSET
Oct 18 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 1–3
43.4%
41.4%
1.27
Oct 18 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Mid Fairfield 2015 3–2
9.7%
83.2%
3.37 UPSET
Oct 18 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Mid Fairfield 2015 2–3
9.7%
83.2%
0.26
Oct 18 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–2
49.7%
33.5%
1.01
Oct 18 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 2–5
43.4%
41.4%
1.27
Oct 12 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–4
74.0%
14.9%
2.75 UPSET
Oct 12 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–2
10.7%
81.5%
0.30
Oct 12 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 1–4
56.3%
28.0%
1.84
Oct 11 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 4–6
64.2%
21.1%
2.25
Oct 11 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 4–9
11.0%
78.9%
0.34
Oct 11 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Boston Jr Terriers 7–1
80.2%
10.6%
0.32
Oct 05 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 2–6
37.3%
42.1%
1.25
Oct 05 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–2
87.4%
6.3%
0.19
Oct 04 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 6–2
56.7%
25.0%
0.82
Oct 04 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 6–2
75.1%
14.3%
0.41
Sep 28 South Shore Kings @ Mid Fairfield 2015 2–14 50/50 —
Sep 28 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–3
50.2%
35.4%
1.50
Sep 28 South Shore Kings @ Mid Fairfield 2015 1–5 50/50 —
Sep 28 Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Islanders Hockey Club 5–3
29.4%
57.7%
1.77
Sep 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 3–0
35.0%
44.4% ⚠
1.51
Sep 27 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 2–7 50/50 —
Sep 27 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–8 50/50 —
Sep 27 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 2–3
62.3%
20.9% ⚠
2.26
Sep 21 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–2
88.7%
4.7% ⚠
0.17
Sep 21 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 3–4 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 5–5 50/50 —
Sep 20 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 0–4 50/50 —
Sep 14 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Mid Fairfield 2015 4–6 50/50 —
Sep 14 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 1–4 50/50 —
Sep 14 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Mid Fairfield 2015 1–3 50/50 —
Sep 14 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–4 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 4–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 2–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–5 50/50 —
Sep 13 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 07 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 8–1 50/50 —
Sep 07 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–1 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 0–5 50/50 —
Sep 06 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 4–2 50/50 —