The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	GF	GA	PTS	Champ %
1	Top Gun	37	26	6	5	157	70	57	56%
2	Providence Capitals - Vanacore	37	24	7	6	182	105	54	23%
3	Boston Jr Eagles	37	20	8	9	129	81	49	12%
4	Islanders Hockey Club	37	16	17	4	149	142	36	9%
5	Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite	37	13	16	8	133	121	34	0%
6	Mid Fairfield 2015	16	12	1	3	76	29	27	—
7	South Shore Kings	37	9	22	6	111	168	24	0%
8	Boston Jr Terriers	37	7	26	4	84	165	18	0%
9	Minuteman Flames	37	4	28	5	74	214	13	0%

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

#	Team	Proj. Finish	Win Division	Proj. Points
1	Top Gun	1	100%	58 (56–58)
2	Providence Capitals - Vanacore	2	<1%	54 (54–54)
3	Boston Jr Eagles	3	<1%	50 (50–52)
4	Islanders Hockey Club	4	<1%	36 (36–36)
5	Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite	5	<1%	34 (34–34)
6	Mid Fairfield 2015	6	<1%	29 (28–29)
7	South Shore Kings	7	<1%	24 (24–24)
8	Boston Jr Terriers	8	<1%	16 (16–17)
9	Minuteman Flames	9	<1%	11 (11–12)

Game Log

Date	Matchup	Score	Pre-game Probability	Surprisal	Flag
Feb 22	Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun	2–4	4% 90%	0.15
Feb 22	Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore	2–5	20% 69%	0.53
Feb 22	South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite	6–4	18% 70%	2.46
Feb 22	Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers	3–0	88% 5%	0.19
Feb 21	Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles	1–4	28% 54%	0.88
Feb 21	Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ South Shore Kings	4–3	83% 10%	0.27
Feb 21	Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun	0–10	2% 95%	0.07
Feb 21	Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club	5–4	12% 78%	3.04	UPSET
Feb 08	Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings	3–2	66% 22%	0.60
Feb 08	Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames	5–2	50% 34%	1.01
Feb 08	Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite	4–1	47% 34%	1.08
Feb 07	Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers	7–1	76% 11%	0.39
Feb 07	Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore	2–2	24% 64%	2.94	UPSET
Feb 07	South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames	4–6	66% 21%	2.23
Feb 07	Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club	2–2	52% 32%	2.65	UPSET
Feb 01	Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club	5–5	5% 90%	4.36	UPSET
Feb 01	Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames	6–2	88% 6%	0.19
Feb 01	South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore	2–9	8% 85%	0.24
Feb 01	Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite	2–4	12% 78%	0.36
Feb 01	Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun	4–2	23% 58%	2.10
Jan 31	Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore	2–8	2% 96%	0.06
Jan 31	Top Gun @ South Shore Kings	8–1	81% 9%	0.30
Jan 31	Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles	0–5	33% 51%	0.97
Jan 25	Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ South Shore Kings	7–7	64% 22%	2.87	UPSET
Jan 24	Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite	2–2	56% 30%	2.82	UPSET
Jan 24	South Shore Kings @ Top Gun	1–1	6% 86%	3.76	UPSET
Jan 24	Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers	4–4	76% 12%	3.00	UPSET
Jan 24	Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles	0–3	10% 79%	0.33
Jan 18	Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers	4–5	76% 12%	3.02	UPSET
Jan 17	Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers	7–1	74% 14%	0.44
Jan 11	Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club	0–7	12% 78%	0.35
Jan 11	Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite	2–8	6% 87%	0.20
Jan 11	South Shore Kings @ Top Gun	1–8	7% 84%	0.25
Jan 11	Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Boston Jr Eagles	5–2	46% 38%	1.13
Jan 10	Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite	4–1	36% 50%	1.48
Jan 10	Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames	5–0	94% 2%	0.09
Jan 10	Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings	6–0	64% 21%	0.65
Jan 04	Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Islanders Hockey Club	7–2	58% 29%	0.78
Jan 04	Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Top Gun	2–2	19% 66%	2.76	UPSET
Jan 04	Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames	7–0	83% 8%	0.27
Jan 03	Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers	4–1	70% 15%	0.50
Jan 03	Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club	6–4	66% 21%	0.60
Jan 03	Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun	4–6	17% 71%	0.50
Jan 03	Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore	3–5	27% 59%	0.76
Dec 28	Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames	3–5	56% 28%	1.84
Dec 27	Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ South Shore Kings	9–1	54% 30%	0.89
Dec 21	Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite	4–4	14% 73%	3.01	UPSET
Dec 21	Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore	7–3	26% 59%	1.97
Dec 21	Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings	2–6	14% 76%	0.40
Dec 20	Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers	2–7	28% 55%	0.86
Dec 20	South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles	2–5	24% 60%	0.74
Dec 20	Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite	2–2	59% 27%	2.87	UPSET
Dec 14	Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles	1–4	8% 83%	0.27
Dec 14	Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun	0–5	5% 88%	0.19
Dec 14	Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ South Shore Kings	4–2	76% 14%	0.40
Dec 13	Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore	4–10	6% 88%	0.19
Dec 13	Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames	7–2	92% 3%	0.12
Dec 13	Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings	3–4	61% 26%	1.93
Dec 07	Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers	4–2	24% 60%	2.04
Dec 07	Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles	1–4	40% 41%	1.27
Dec 07	Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore	7–3	43% 39%	1.21
Dec 07	South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club	1–5	24% 65%	0.62
Dec 07	Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore	4–2	41% 42%	1.28
Dec 06	Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Boston Jr Terriers	6–3	85% 7%	0.24
Dec 06	Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Top Gun	3–4	20% 64%	0.65
Dec 06	Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club	8–0	28% 56%	1.81
Dec 06	South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames	6–6	75% 14%	3.18	UPSET
Dec 06	Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore	2–7	6% 87%	0.21
Nov 30	Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers	5–4	75% 14%	0.41
Nov 30	Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Minuteman Flames	6–5	86% 6%	0.22
Nov 29	Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club	3–8	42% 42%	1.24
Nov 29	Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings	0–7	31% 52%	0.94
Nov 23	Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Islanders Hockey Club	5–3	59% 29%	0.76
Nov 23	Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun	0–8	2% 93%	0.11
Nov 23	Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite	1–3	15% 71%	0.49
Nov 22	Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers	2–4	20% 65%	0.63
Nov 22	Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Top Gun	0–3	28% 54%	0.90
Nov 22	Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ South Shore Kings	6–6	81% 10%	3.54	UPSET
Nov 22	Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles	4–4	51% 33%	2.65	UPSET
Nov 16	Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Boston Jr Eagles	3–1	75% 13%	0.42
Nov 16	Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Minuteman Flames	8–1	94% 2%	0.09
Nov 16	Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ South Shore Kings	2–2	69% 18%	3.01	UPSET
Nov 16	Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Boston Jr Eagles	6–5	75% 11%	0.41
Nov 15	Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Minuteman Flames	9–0	95% 2%	0.08
Nov 15	Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Top Gun	4–5	42% 40%	1.32
Nov 15	Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Top Gun	1–2	44% 39%	1.37
Nov 15	Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Minuteman Flames	10–0	91% 4%	0.14
Nov 15	Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings	4–2	48% 33%	1.04
Nov 09	Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers	10–5	67% 19%	0.57
Nov 09	Top Gun @ Mid Fairfield 2015	2–3	29% 52%	0.93
Nov 09	Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Minuteman Flames	7–4	93% 3%	0.10
Nov 09	Top Gun @ Mid Fairfield 2015	2–2	28% 54%	2.47
Nov 09	South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles	2–5	33% 49%	1.03
Nov 08	Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club	3–2	52% 33%	0.95
Nov 08	Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings	3–2	29% 54%	1.80
Nov 08	Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite	0–9	9% 82%	0.29
Nov 08	Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore	0–6	17% 69%	0.53
Nov 02	South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames	2–1	63% 23%	0.67
Nov 02	Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite	3–4	53% 30%	1.75
Nov 02	Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore	1–8	30% 56%	0.82
Nov 01	Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings	2–5	31% 52%	0.95
Nov 01	Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun	2–2	18% 65%	2.55	UPSET
Nov 01	Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames	8–4	82% 9%	0.29
Nov 01	Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames	9–2	75% 13%	0.42
Oct 26	Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club	4–4	38% 46%	2.69
Oct 25	Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Islanders Hockey Club	6–4	61% 23%	0.71
Oct 25	Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite	1–8	18% 66%	0.59
Oct 25	Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Islanders Hockey Club	6–2	53% 30%	0.92
Oct 19	South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles	3–3	28% 56%	2.62	UPSET
Oct 19	Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore	3–4	6% 87%	0.20
Oct 19	Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers	3–0	74% 13%	0.44
Oct 18	South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers	6–2	34% 48%	1.54
Oct 18	Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun	2–5	34% 49%	1.03
Oct 18	Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Mid Fairfield 2015	3–2	32% 52%	1.66
Oct 18	Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Minuteman Flames	2–3	72% 14%	2.80	UPSET
Oct 18	Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Mid Fairfield 2015	2–3	32% 52%	0.94
Oct 18	Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun	1–3	39% 45%	1.16
Oct 12	Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Boston Jr Eagles	3–4	68% 18%	2.49
Oct 12	South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club	1–2	9% 84%	0.26
Oct 12	Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite	1–4	61% 24%	2.05
Oct 11	Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Boston Jr Terriers	7–1	64% 21%	0.65
Oct 11	Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite	4–6	68% 19%	2.40
Oct 11	South Shore Kings @ Top Gun	4–9	11% 79%	0.34
Oct 05	South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite	2–6	39% 44%	1.18
Oct 05	Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers	3–2	66% 19%	0.61
Oct 04	Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite	6–2	65% 21%	0.62
Oct 04	Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings	6–2	72% 17%	0.47
Sep 28	South Shore Kings @ Mid Fairfield 2015	2–12	26% 55%	0.86
Sep 28	Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles	1–3	43% 34%	1.55
Sep 28	South Shore Kings @ Mid Fairfield 2015	1–5	40% 39%	1.36
Sep 28	Providence Capitals - Vanacore @ Islanders Hockey Club	5–3	30% 56%	1.75
Sep 27	Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite	3–0	31% 50%	1.71
Sep 27	Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club	0–8	50/50	—
Sep 27	Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore	2–7	37% 44%	1.20
Sep 27	Top Gun @ South Shore Kings	2–3	55% 28%	1.83
Sep 21	Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles	5–2	67% 17%	0.59
Sep 21	South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore	3–4	50/50	—
Sep 20	Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings	0–4	50/50	—
Sep 20	Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore	5–5	50/50	—
Sep 14	Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Mid Fairfield 2015	4–6	24% 52% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	0.95
Sep 14	Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore	1–4	50/50	—
Sep 14	Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames	4–3	36% 37% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	1.45
Sep 14	Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Mid Fairfield 2015	1–3	50/50	—
Sep 14	South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers	3–4	50/50	—
Sep 13	Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun	2–3	50/50	—
Sep 13	Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club	3–5	50/50	—
Sep 13	Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Vanacore	3–3	50/50	—
Sep 07	Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles	2–1	50/50	—
Sep 07	Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames	8–1	50/50	—
Sep 06	Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite	4–2	50/50	—
Sep 06	Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun	0–5	50/50	—
Aug 01	Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles	0–0	50/50	—
Aug 01	Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles	0–0	50/50	—
Aug 01	Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles	0–0	50/50	—
Aug 01	Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Boston Jr Terriers	0–0	50/50	—
Aug 01	Mid Fairfield 2015 @ Boston Jr Terriers	0–0	50/50	—