The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo 8 6 1 1 46 20 13 —
2 South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta 8 6 1 1 36 25 13 —
3 Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore 7 4 2 1 38 22 9 —
4 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 9 4 4 1 28 41 9 —
5 TopGun 2015 Elite 7 3 2 2 33 21 8 —
6 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 8 3 4 1 34 27 7 —
7 IHC 15 Elite 7 1 5 1 24 39 3 —
8 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 —
9 Minuteman Flames Kelly 8 0 8 0 20 64 0 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta 2 (1–3) 42% 51 (44–57)
2 Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo 2 (1–4) 37% 50 (44–57)
3 Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore 3 (1–4) 17% 46 (39–54)
4 TopGun 2015 Elite 4 (2–5) 4% 43 (35–50)
5 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 5 (4–6) <1% 37 (30–43)
6 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers 6 (6–7) <1% 28 (25–31)
7 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 7 (6–8) <1% 23 (16–32)
8 IHC 15 Elite 8 (6–8) <1% 21 (15–29)
9 Minuteman Flames Kelly 9 <1% 4 (1–7)
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 03 Minuteman Flames Kelly @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 03 Minuteman Flames Kelly @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo @ IHC 15 Elite 4–1 50/50 —
Sep 12 Minuteman Flames Kelly @ TopGun 2015 Elite 3–11 50/50 —
Sep 12 IHC 15 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore 2–10 50/50 —
Sep 13 TopGun 2015 Elite @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 1–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Minuteman Flames Kelly @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo 4–11 50/50 —
Sep 19 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta 2–5 50/50 —
Sep 19 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 @ Minuteman Flames Kelly 5–3 50/50 —
Sep 20 Minuteman Flames Kelly @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 1–8 50/50 —
Sep 20 TopGun 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 7–1 50/50 —
Sep 26 TopGun 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo 4–4 50/50 —
Sep 26 IHC 15 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta 2–7 50/50 —
Sep 26 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore 3–5 50/50 —
Sep 27 South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta @ TopGun 2015 Elite 4–4 50/50 —
Sep 27 Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore @ IHC 15 Elite 4–4 50/50 —
Sep 27 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 4–4 50/50 —
Oct 03 South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo 3–6
49% 37%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.42
Oct 04 South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 6–4
49% 36%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.04
Oct 10 South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta @ TopGun 2015 Elite 5–3
38% 48%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.40
Oct 10 Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 7–0
74% 16%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.43
Oct 10 Minuteman Flames Kelly @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo 0–7
2% 96%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.05
Oct 10 Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 4–5
87% 7%
3.93 UPSET
Oct 11 Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite 4–3
58% 27%
0.77
Oct 11 South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 2–1
78% 13%
0.35
Oct 11 TopGun 2015 Elite @ IHC 15 Elite 3–1
76% 14%
0.39
Oct 17 South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta @ Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore 4–3
39% 47%
1.34
Oct 17 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo 0–6
11% 80%
0.32
Oct 17 Minuteman Flames Kelly @ IHC 15 Elite 5–9
20% 68%
0.55
Oct 18 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Kelly 7–1
87% 7%
0.20
Oct 18 IHC 15 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 5–6
44% 40%
1.31
Oct 18 Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo 5–4
31% 55%
1.70
Oct 24 TopGun 2015 Elite @ IHC 15 Elite Upcoming
74% 16%
—
Oct 24 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 @ Minuteman Flames Kelly 6–3
70% 19%
0.52
Oct 25 TopGun 2015 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Kelly Upcoming
94% 3%
—
Oct 30 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 Upcoming
63% 23%
—
Oct 31 Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo @ Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore Upcoming
44% 42%
—
Oct 31 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 @ TopGun 2015 Elite Upcoming
13% 76%
—
Nov 01 TopGun 2015 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta Upcoming
34% 51%
—
Nov 01 Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore @ IHC 15 Elite Upcoming
80% 12%
—
Nov 01 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo Upcoming
24% 63%
—
Nov 07 South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta @ Minuteman Flames Kelly Upcoming
96% 2%
—
Nov 07 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo Upcoming
9% 82%
—
Nov 07 TopGun 2015 Elite @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite Upcoming
49% 36%
—
Nov 08 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 @ South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta Upcoming
10% 81%
—
Nov 08 Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite Upcoming
55% 31%
—
Nov 08 TopGun 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo Upcoming
31% 54%
—
Nov 14 South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta @ Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore Upcoming
41% 45%
—
Nov 14 IHC 15 Elite @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming 50/50 —
Nov 14 IHC 15 Elite @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming 50/50 —
Nov 14 Minuteman Flames Kelly @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 Upcoming
14% 77%
—
Nov 15 Minuteman Flames Kelly @ Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Nov 15 IHC 15 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta Upcoming
9% 83%
—
Nov 15 Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming 50/50 —
Nov 15 Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming 50/50 —
Nov 21 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore Upcoming 50/50 —
Nov 21 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore Upcoming 50/50 —
Nov 21 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 Upcoming
63% 23%
—
Nov 21 TopGun 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo Upcoming
31% 54%
—
Nov 22 South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta @ TopGun 2015 Elite Upcoming
46% 40%
—
Nov 22 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite Upcoming 50/50 —
Nov 22 Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 Upcoming
78% 13%
—
Nov 22 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite Upcoming 50/50 —
Nov 22 IHC 15 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo Upcoming
8% 84%
—
Nov 28 Minuteman Flames Kelly @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite Upcoming
4% 92%
—
Nov 29 Minuteman Flames Kelly @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 Upcoming
14% 77%
—
Dec 05 TopGun 2015 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Kelly Upcoming
94% 3%
—
Dec 05 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 @ IHC 15 Elite Upcoming
39% 46%
—
Dec 05 Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo @ South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta Upcoming
43% 42%
—
Dec 05 Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite Upcoming
55% 31%
—
Dec 06 South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 Upcoming
77% 13%
—
Dec 06 IHC 15 Elite @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite Upcoming
19% 70%
—
Dec 06 Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore @ TopGun 2015 Elite Upcoming
45% 40%
—
Dec 06 Minuteman Flames Kelly @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Dec 12 Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo @ Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore Upcoming
44% 42%
—
Dec 12 South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta @ IHC 15 Elite Upcoming
79% 12%
—
Dec 12 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ TopGun 2015 Elite Upcoming
31% 54%
—
Dec 13 TopGun 2015 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta Upcoming
34% 51%
—
Dec 13 Minuteman Flames Kelly @ IHC 15 Elite Upcoming
12% 80%
—
Dec 13 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo Upcoming
24% 63%
—
Dec 19 South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta @ Minuteman Flames Kelly Upcoming
96% 2%
—
Dec 19 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore Upcoming
26% 61%
—
Dec 19 Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo @ IHC 15 Elite Upcoming
81% 11%
—
Dec 19 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 @ TopGun 2015 Elite Upcoming
13% 76%
—
Dec 20 Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo @ Minuteman Flames Kelly Upcoming
97% 2%
—
Dec 20 Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore @ TopGun 2015 Elite Upcoming
45% 40%
—
Dec 20 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 @ South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta Upcoming
10% 81%
—
Dec 20 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ IHC 15 Elite Upcoming
64% 23%
—
Dec 26 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Kelly Upcoming
90% 5%
—
Dec 27 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite Upcoming
19% 68%
—
Dec 27 Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo @ South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta Upcoming
43% 42%
—
Jan 02 Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo @ Minuteman Flames Kelly Upcoming
97% 2%
—
Jan 02 IHC 15 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 Upcoming
40% 45%
—
Jan 02 South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta @ Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore Upcoming
41% 45%
—
Jan 03 South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta @ Minuteman Flames Kelly Upcoming
96% 2%
—
Jan 03 IHC 15 Elite @ TopGun 2015 Elite Upcoming
12% 78%
—
Jan 03 Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 Upcoming
79% 12%
—
Jan 09 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ IHC 15 Elite Upcoming
64% 23%
—
Jan 09 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta Upcoming 50/50 —
Jan 09 Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo @ TopGun 2015 Elite Upcoming
48% 36%
—
Jan 09 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 @ Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore Upcoming
10% 82%
—
Jan 09 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta Upcoming 50/50 —
Jan 10 Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo Upcoming
36% 50%
—
Jan 10 IHC 15 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta Upcoming
9% 83%
—
Jan 10 Minuteman Flames Kelly @ TopGun 2015 Elite Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Jan 10 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 Upcoming
63% 23%
—
Jan 17 IHC 15 Elite @ TopGun 2015 Elite Upcoming
12% 78%
—
Jan 17 Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite Upcoming
55% 31%
—
Jan 23 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 @ Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore Upcoming
10% 82%
—
Jan 23 Minuteman Flames Kelly @ South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Jan 23 IHC 15 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo Upcoming
8% 84%
—
Jan 24 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming 50/50 —
Jan 24 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ IHC 15 Elite Upcoming
64% 23%
—
Jan 24 Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore @ Minuteman Flames Kelly Upcoming
97% 2%
—
Jan 24 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming 50/50 —
Jan 24 South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo Upcoming
37% 48%
—
Jan 30 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta Upcoming
26% 61%
—
Jan 30 Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo @ TopGun 2015 Elite Upcoming
48% 36%
—
Jan 30 IHC 15 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore Upcoming
9% 84%
—
Jan 31 Minuteman Flames Kelly @ IHC 15 Elite Upcoming
12% 80%
—
Jan 31 TopGun 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 Upcoming
72% 16%
—
Jan 31 Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite Upcoming
58% 28%
—
Jan 31 Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore @ South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta Upcoming
39% 47%
—
Feb 06 Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo @ South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta Upcoming
43% 42%
—
Feb 06 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Kelly Upcoming
90% 5%
—
Feb 06 TopGun 2015 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore Upcoming
35% 51%
—
Feb 06 TopGun 2015 Elite @ Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore Upcoming
35% 51%
—
Feb 06 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 @ IHC 15 Elite Upcoming
39% 46%
—
Feb 07 Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore @ Minuteman Flames Kelly Upcoming
97% 2%
—
Feb 07 South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta @ IHC 15 Elite Upcoming
79% 12%
—
Feb 07 Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore @ Minuteman Flames Kelly Upcoming
97% 2%
—
Feb 07 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ TopGun 2015 Elite Upcoming
31% 54%
—
Feb 07 Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 Upcoming
79% 12%
—
Feb 14 South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 Upcoming
77% 13%
—
Feb 14 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ TopGun 2015 Elite Upcoming 50/50 —
Feb 14 Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore @ IHC 15 Elite Upcoming
80% 12%
—
Feb 14 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ TopGun 2015 Elite Upcoming 50/50 —
Feb 20 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 @ TopGun 2015 Elite Upcoming
13% 76%
—
Feb 20 Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo @ Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore Upcoming
44% 42%
—
Feb 20 Minuteman Flames Kelly @ South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Feb 20 IHC 15 Elite @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite Upcoming
19% 70%
—
Feb 21 IHC 15 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 Upcoming
40% 45%
—
Feb 21 South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite Upcoming
55% 30%
—
Feb 21 TopGun 2015 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Kelly Upcoming
94% 3%
—
Feb 27 TopGun 2015 Elite @ IHC 15 Elite Upcoming
74% 16%
—
Feb 27 Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo Upcoming
24% 63%
—
Feb 27 Minuteman Flames Kelly @ Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Feb 28 IHC 15 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Kelly Upcoming
75% 16%
—
Feb 28 Providence Capitals 2015 Elite - Vanacore @ South Shore Kings 2015 Elite Ciarletta Upcoming
39% 47%
—
Feb 28 TopGun 2015 Elite @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Elite Upcoming
49% 36%
—
Feb 28 IHC 15 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Kelly Upcoming
75% 16%
—
Feb 28 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Pee Wee Minor 2015 @ Boston Jr. Eagles - Sabo Upcoming
9% 82%
—