The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS
1 Boston Jr Dogs (White) 35 26 5 4 136 54 56
2 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 35 25 6 4 143 53 54
3 Team Merrimack East 35 22 8 5 99 67 49
4 Team Boston 35 13 17 5 63 90 31
5 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 35 10 16 9 49 59 29
6 MC Selects 34 11 19 4 57 117 26
7 Providence (South) - Joannette 35 6 23 6 69 127 18
8 South Shore Knights 34 5 24 5 56 105 15

Game Log

Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Feb 22 MC Selects @ Team Boston 3–1
28.0%
55.1%
1.84
Feb 22 Providence (South) - Joannette @ South Shore Knights 1–3
44.4%
38.8%
1.37
Feb 22 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 3–0
72.9%
13.2%
0.46
Feb 21 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 0–8
3.4%
92.0%
0.12
Feb 21 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–5
4.3%
90.1%
0.15
Feb 21 Team Boston @ Team Merrimack East 1–5
20.7%
63.9%
0.65
Feb 15 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Providence (South) - Joannette 8–1
90.8%
4.2%
0.14
Feb 15 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 2–2
29.1%
53.3%
2.51 UPSET
Feb 14 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–4
3.4%
92.1%
0.12
Feb 14 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Boston 2–2
82.8%
8.3%
3.50 UPSET
Feb 08 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Merrimack East 3–3
63.4%
21.9%
2.76 UPSET
Feb 08 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–1
73.3%
12.9%
2.85 UPSET
Feb 07 Team Boston @ MC Selects 2–0
52.7%
30.3%
0.93
Feb 07 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–2
40.0%
43.2%
1.32
Feb 07 Team Merrimack East @ South Shore Knights 3–0
74.5%
13.4%
0.42
Feb 01 Team Merrimack East @ Team Boston 3–0
62.9%
21.7%
0.67
Feb 01 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ South Shore Knights 1–0
91.5%
3.7%
0.13
Feb 01 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Providence (South) - Joannette 2–2
51.6%
29.4%
2.40
Feb 01 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ MC Selects 8–1
90.8%
4.0%
0.14
Jan 31 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 0–3
4.0%
90.8%
0.14
Jan 31 Team Merrimack East @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–1
18.7%
67.9%
2.42
Jan 31 Providence (South) - Joannette @ MC Selects 2–2
45.2%
38.4%
2.61
Jan 25 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Providence (South) - Joannette 7–0
90.9%
4.2%
0.14
Jan 25 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Merrimack East 1–3
28.7%
50.7%
0.98
Jan 24 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–0
33.7%
44.4%
1.57
Jan 24 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–5
4.5%
90.1%
0.15
Jan 24 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack East 2–3
13.9%
74.0%
0.43
Jan 24 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ MC Selects 4–0
91.2%
3.9%
0.13
Jan 18 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–4
25.9%
53.8%
0.89
Jan 18 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 2–1
25.9%
53.8%
1.95
Jan 11 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Merrimack East 3–4
68.6%
18.1%
2.46
Jan 11 Team Boston @ South Shore Knights 2–5
58.7%
24.9%
2.01
Jan 11 Team Boston @ South Shore Knights 1–1
58.7%
24.9%
2.61 UPSET
Jan 11 MC Selects @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–2
27.2%
53.0%
0.92
Jan 11 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Providence (South) - Joannette 2–2
92.2%
3.5%
4.53 UPSET
Jan 10 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 0–5
3.6%
92.1%
0.12
Jan 10 South Shore Knights @ MC Selects 2–3
37.1%
45.5%
1.14
Jan 10 Team Merrimack East @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–2
51.5%
27.5%
1.86
Jan 10 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–0
6.4%
86.1%
3.96 UPSET
Jan 04 Team Boston @ Team Merrimack East 2–4
23.0%
60.7%
0.72
Jan 04 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–1
76.4%
10.9%
2.97 UPSET
Jan 04 South Shore Knights @ Providence (South) - Joannette 1–1
33.2%
50.9%
2.66 UPSET
Jan 04 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 0–6
4.3%
90.6%
0.14
Jan 03 Team Merrimack East @ Providence (South) - Joannette 3–2
72.1%
15.8%
0.47
Jan 03 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–2
34.8%
49.6%
1.01
Jan 03 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ South Shore Knights 2–1
52.2%
27.1%
0.94
Dec 28 MC Selects @ Providence (South) - Joannette 3–1
36.4%
48.1%
1.46
Dec 28 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Boston 0–3
44.7%
32.4%
1.62
Dec 27 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Team Boston 0–1
39.3%
44.4%
1.17
Dec 21 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Providence (South) - Joannette 3–0
46.3%
34.9%
1.11
Dec 21 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack East 1–2
71.8%
15.7%
2.67 UPSET
Dec 21 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack East 4–2
71.8%
15.7%
0.48
Dec 21 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ South Shore Knights 7–3
91.7%
3.6%
0.13
Dec 20 Team Merrimack East @ Providence (South) - Joannette 5–2
66.0%
20.5%
0.60
Dec 20 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 0–5
2.8%
93.2%
0.10
Dec 20 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ MC Selects 1–1
51.8%
28.4%
2.34
Dec 20 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–2
6.2%
86.7%
3.83 UPSET
Dec 14 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Team Boston 0–1
44.4%
39.8%
1.33
Dec 14 MC Selects @ Team Merrimack East 2–3
15.9%
71.2%
0.49
Dec 14 MC Selects @ Team Merrimack East 1–3
15.9%
71.2%
0.49
Dec 13 Team Boston @ MC Selects 0–2
53.4%
30.5%
1.71
Dec 13 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack East 1–2
14.5%
72.8%
0.46
Dec 07 Providence (South) - Joannette @ South Shore Knights 2–4
61.9%
24.0%
2.06
Dec 07 MC Selects @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–1
26.7%
54.3%
2.39
Dec 06 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Merrimack East 1–1
28.2%
50.9%
2.26
Dec 06 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–4
5.6%
87.9%
0.19
Dec 06 South Shore Knights @ MC Selects 1–3
39.9%
43.1%
1.22
Nov 30 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Boston 7–0
81.8%
9.3%
0.29
Nov 30 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Team Merrimack East 3–4
21.1%
65.5%
0.61
Nov 29 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 1–2
13.9%
72.1%
0.47
Nov 29 Team Merrimack East @ Team Boston 4–1
55.4%
28.0%
0.85
Nov 23 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ South Shore Knights 3–1
92.8%
3.1%
0.11
Nov 22 Team Merrimack East @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–4
16.9%
69.9%
0.52
Nov 22 Providence (South) - Joannette @ MC Selects 0–3
66.5%
21.3%
2.23
Nov 22 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 2–2
23.7%
56.3%
2.32
Nov 22 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 1–4
10.1%
80.7%
0.31
Nov 16 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Providence (South) - Joannette 2–3
44.4%
37.0%
1.43
Nov 16 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ South Shore Knights 4–2
95.6%
1.7%
0.07
Nov 16 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ MC Selects 10–1
90.7%
4.3%
0.14
Nov 15 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 3–7
8.9%
83.4%
0.26
Nov 15 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–0
36.7%
42.7%
1.45
Nov 15 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–5
2.1%
95.0%
0.07
Nov 09 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–0
66.9%
17.7%
0.58
Nov 09 MC Selects @ South Shore Knights 1–1
51.5%
32.7%
2.66 UPSET
Nov 09 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Team Merrimack East 4–4
22.0%
63.7%
2.81 UPSET
Nov 08 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 0–2
12.6%
74.8%
0.42
Nov 08 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 1–4
23.4%
61.8%
0.69
Nov 02 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ South Shore Knights 2–0
97.4%
1.0%
0.04
Nov 02 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Merrimack East 2–2
28.7%
49.1%
2.17
Nov 02 MC Selects @ Team Boston 2–1
23.6%
62.5%
2.08
Nov 01 Team Merrimack East @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 1–2
25.8%
57.9%
0.79
Nov 01 MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–4
1.0%
97.5%
0.04
Nov 01 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Boston 0–1
44.2%
36.5%
1.46
Nov 01 Providence (South) - Joannette @ South Shore Knights 7–1
51.7%
33.2%
0.95
Oct 26 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Boston 7–2
86.1%
6.8%
0.22
Oct 26 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ South Shore Knights 2–0
53.6%
28.7%
0.90
Oct 26 MC Selects @ Team Merrimack East 0–3
12.2%
77.2%
0.37
Oct 26 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Providence (South) - Joannette 1–2
92.5%
3.4%
4.86 UPSET
Oct 25 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ MC Selects 9–1
91.8%
3.9%
0.12
Oct 25 Team Boston @ Providence (South) - Joannette 6–2
47.3%
36.7%
1.08
Oct 25 Team Merrimack East @ South Shore Knights 5–1
63.0%
22.2%
0.67
Oct 25 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 1–4
12.8%
74.8%
0.42
Oct 18 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–3
6.2%
87.1%
0.20
Oct 18 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 2–4
2.2%
94.9%
0.08
Oct 18 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ MC Selects 1–0
61.5%
23.3%
0.70
Oct 12 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack East 4–1
70.4%
16.6%
0.51
Oct 12 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 3–2
19.8%
65.3%
2.34
Oct 11 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–3
15.9%
70.4%
0.51
Oct 11 Team Merrimack East @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 3–3
12.5%
76.1%
3.13 UPSET
Oct 05 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Providence (South) - Joannette 4–3
98.5%
0.6%
0.02
Oct 05 Team Merrimack East @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–5
20.2%
64.2%
0.64
Oct 04 Team Boston @ Providence (South) - Joannette 4–4
60.3%
24.8%
2.75 UPSET
Oct 04 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 3–4
64.0%
22.0%
2.18
Oct 04 Team Merrimack East @ MC Selects 5–3
72.3%
14.6%
0.47
Sep 28 Team Boston @ Team Merrimack East 0–2
30.3%
50.9%
0.97
Sep 27 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 1–7
7.5%
84.5%
0.24
Sep 27 Team Merrimack East @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 0–1
44.8%
31.9%
1.65
Sep 27 MC Selects @ Providence (South) - Joannette 5–3
43.8%
40.2%
1.19
Sep 27 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Boston 1–3
98.9%
0.3%
8.18 UPSET
Sep 21 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Providence (South) - Joannette 8–1
99.6%
0.1% ⚠
0.01
Sep 21 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ MC Selects 1–3
85.4%
6.3% ⚠
3.98 UPSET
Sep 20 MC Selects @ South Shore Knights 1–7
63.3%
22.4% ⚠
2.16
Sep 20 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Team Boston 1–3
44.6%
40.4% ⚠
1.31
Sep 20 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 4–3
86.5%
5.6% ⚠
0.21
Sep 14 Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Boston 9–2
99.8%
0.0% ⚠
0.00
Sep 14 Team Merrimack East @ South Shore Knights 3–2 50/50 —
Sep 14 Providence (South) - Joannette @ MC Selects 5–1
0.3%
99.3% ⚠
8.46 UPSET
Sep 13 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (White) 0–4 50/50 —
Sep 13 Team Merrimack East @ Providence (South) - Joannette 6–0 50/50 —
Sep 13 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 2–5 50/50 —
Sep 13 Team Boston @ MC Selects 2–5 50/50 —
Sep 07 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 2–4 50/50 —
Sep 07 Providence (South) - Joannette @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 2–5 50/50 —
Sep 07 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ MC Selects 10–1 50/50 —
Sep 06 South Shore Knights @ Providence (South) - Joannette 2–4 50/50 —
Sep 06 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–3 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red) 3–1 50/50 —
Sep 06 Team Merrimack East @ MC Selects 1–3 50/50 —