The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Team Merrimack 18 -Femia 8 6 1 1 62 34 13 —
2 Team Boston-Langmaid 8 5 1 2 57 35 12 —
3 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 8 5 2 1 42 38 11 —
4 Boston jr Dogs White 10 5 5 0 64 60 10 —
5 Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red 9 4 3 2 54 56 10 —
6 Minuteman Sparks O'Neil 8 4 3 1 47 47 9 —
7 Providence 2018 South - Joannette 10 3 4 3 57 41 9 —
8 NE Jr Dogs 7 2 5 0 25 45 4 —
9 Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright 11 2 9 0 62 108 4 —
10 Little Stars - Gorman 7 1 4 2 29 35 4 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Team Merrimack 18 -Femia 1 (1–3) 49% 55 (45–62)
2 Team Boston-Langmaid 2 (1–3) 40% 54 (45–61)
3 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 3 (2–6) 3% 44 (36–52)
4 Minuteman Sparks O'Neil 4 (2–7) 6% 41 (30–51)
5 Boston jr Dogs White 5 (3–7) <1% 37 (30–45)
6 Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red 5 (3–7) 1% 37 (28–47)
7 Providence 2018 South - Joannette 7 (4–9) <1% 31 (22–40)
8 Little Stars - Gorman 8 (5–9) <1% 27 (19–36)
9 Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright 9 (8–10) <1% 17 (11–25)
10 NE Jr Dogs 9 (8–10) <1% 16 (9–25)
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Sep 05 Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright @ Team Merrimack 18 -Femia 3–13 50/50 —
Sep 06 Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright @ Team Merrimack 18 -Femia 4–8 50/50 —
Sep 12 Little Stars - Gorman @ Team Boston-Langmaid 4–4 50/50 —
Sep 12 Boston jr Dogs White @ Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright 11–10 50/50 —
Sep 12 Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 3–6 50/50 —
Sep 12 Team Merrimack 18 -Femia @ NE Jr Dogs 12–3 50/50 —
Sep 12 Providence 2018 South - Joannette @ Minuteman Sparks O'Neil 3–5 50/50 —
Sep 13 Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright @ Providence 2018 South - Joannette 9–8 50/50 —
Sep 13 Minuteman Sparks O'Neil @ Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red 6–9 50/50 —
Sep 13 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston jr Dogs White 1–4 50/50 —
Sep 19 Boston jr Dogs White @ Team Boston-Langmaid 7–11 50/50 —
Sep 19 Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright @ Little Stars - Gorman 10–8 50/50 —
Sep 19 Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red @ Providence 2018 South - Joannette 7–7 50/50 —
Sep 20 Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 9–10 50/50 —
Sep 20 Team Boston-Langmaid @ Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red 11–3 50/50 —
Sep 20 Providence 2018 South - Joannette @ NE Jr Dogs 9–1 50/50 —
Sep 20 Minuteman Sparks O'Neil @ Boston jr Dogs White 10–7 50/50 —
Sep 26 Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright @ NE Jr Dogs 3–7 50/50 —
Sep 26 Boston jr Dogs White @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum Upcoming
41% 47%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
—
Sep 27 Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red @ Team Merrimack 18 -Femia 4–4
5% 91%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
4.65 UPSET
Oct 03 NE Jr Dogs @ Providence 2018 South - Joannette 1–4
14% 78%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.36
Oct 03 Boston jr Dogs White @ Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red 5–6
42% 48%
1.07
Oct 03 Minuteman Sparks O'Neil @ Little Stars - Gorman 4–3 50/50 —
Oct 03 Team Boston-Langmaid @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 4–4
69% 21%
3.32 UPSET
Oct 04 Minuteman Sparks O'Neil @ Team Boston-Langmaid 2–9
25% 66%
0.61
Oct 04 NE Jr Dogs @ Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red 3–7
15% 77%
0.39
Oct 04 Providence 2018 South - Joannette @ Boston jr Dogs White 1–2
45% 43%
1.22
Oct 04 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright 7–6
59% 31%
0.77
Oct 10 Team Merrimack 18 -Femia @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 7–5
66% 22%
0.60
Oct 10 Team Boston-Langmaid @ Little Stars - Gorman 6–3
75% 16%
0.41
Oct 10 Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright @ Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red 5–13
27% 64%
0.65
Oct 10 NE Jr Dogs @ Boston jr Dogs White 5–6
13% 79%
0.33
Oct 11 Minuteman Sparks O'Neil @ Team Merrimack 18 -Femia 4–7
15% 77%
0.38
Oct 11 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ NE Jr Dogs Upcoming
70% 19%
—
Oct 11 Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright @ Boston jr Dogs White 3–13
26% 65%
0.62
Oct 17 Team Merrimack 18 -Femia @ Team Boston-Langmaid 7–5
36% 52%
1.49
Oct 17 Little Stars - Gorman @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 1–3
32% 54%
0.89
Oct 17 Minuteman Sparks O'Neil @ Providence 2018 South - Joannette 7–7
39% 48%
2.96
Oct 18 Team Merrimack 18 -Femia @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum 4–6
67% 21%
2.22
Oct 18 NE Jr Dogs @ Providence 2018 South - Joannette 5–4
15% 76%
2.75 UPSET
Oct 18 Minuteman Sparks O'Neil @ Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red 9–2
35% 54%
1.53
Oct 18 Team Boston-Langmaid @ Boston jr Dogs White 7–5
69% 22%
0.54
Oct 24 Providence 2018 South - Joannette @ Little Stars - Gorman 4–4
47% 39%
—
Oct 25 Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright @ Providence 2018 South - Joannette 0–10
21% 71%
—
Oct 25 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boston jr Dogs White 6–4
28% 59%
—
Oct 31 Providence 2018 South - Joannette @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum Upcoming
34% 53%
—
Oct 31 Minuteman Sparks O'Neil @ Team Boston-Langmaid Upcoming
20% 72%
—
Oct 31 Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright @ Little Stars - Gorman Upcoming
28% 61%
—
Nov 01 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright Upcoming
71% 20%
—
Nov 01 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red Upcoming
32% 55%
—
Nov 01 Team Merrimack 18 -Femia @ Boston jr Dogs White Upcoming
65% 24%
—
Nov 07 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Minuteman Sparks O'Neil Upcoming
38% 49%
—
Nov 07 Team Boston-Langmaid @ Little Stars - Gorman Upcoming
76% 15%
—
Nov 07 Team Merrimack 18 -Femia @ NE Jr Dogs Upcoming
88% 7%
—
Nov 08 Little Stars - Gorman @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum Upcoming
28% 59%
—
Nov 08 NE Jr Dogs @ Team Boston-Langmaid Upcoming
4% 93%
—
Nov 08 Boston jr Dogs White @ Providence 2018 South - Joannette Upcoming
46% 41%
—
Nov 14 Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red @ Team Merrimack 18 -Femia Upcoming
16% 76%
—
Nov 14 Boston jr Dogs White @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum Upcoming
38% 48%
—
Nov 14 Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright @ Team Boston-Langmaid Upcoming
4% 94%
—
Nov 14 Little Stars - Gorman @ NE Jr Dogs Upcoming
57% 29%
—
Nov 15 NE Jr Dogs @ Minuteman Sparks O'Neil Upcoming
11% 81%
—
Nov 15 Team Merrimack 18 -Femia @ Little Stars - Gorman Upcoming
73% 17%
—
Nov 15 Providence 2018 South - Joannette @ Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red Upcoming
39% 48%
—
Nov 21 Team Merrimack 18 -Femia @ Providence 2018 South - Joannette Upcoming
68% 21%
—
Nov 21 Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum Upcoming
15% 77%
—
Nov 21 NE Jr Dogs @ Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red Upcoming
16% 74%
—
Nov 21 Boston jr Dogs White @ Team Boston-Langmaid Upcoming
17% 75%
—
Nov 21 Minuteman Sparks O'Neil @ Little Stars - Gorman Upcoming
57% 30%
—
Nov 21 Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red @ NE Jr Dogs Upcoming
69% 21%
—
Nov 22 Minuteman Sparks O'Neil @ Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright Upcoming
76% 17%
—
Nov 22 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Providence 2018 South - Joannette Upcoming
47% 39%
—
Nov 22 Team Boston-Langmaid @ Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red Upcoming
73% 18%
—
Nov 22 NE Jr Dogs @ Boston jr Dogs White Upcoming
14% 78%
—
Nov 22 Team Merrimack 18 -Femia @ Little Stars - Gorman Upcoming
73% 17%
—
Nov 28 Providence 2018 South - Joannette @ Little Stars - Gorman Upcoming
47% 39%
—
Nov 28 Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red @ Boston jr Dogs White Upcoming
36% 53%
—
Nov 29 Boston jr Dogs White @ Providence 2018 South - Joannette Upcoming
46% 41%
—
Nov 29 Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red @ Minuteman Sparks O'Neil Upcoming
32% 58%
—
Nov 29 NE Jr Dogs @ Little Stars - Gorman Upcoming
24% 63%
—
Dec 05 Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red @ Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright Upcoming
66% 25%
—
Dec 05 Team Merrimack 18 -Femia @ Minuteman Sparks O'Neil Upcoming
62% 28%
—
Dec 05 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Little Stars - Gorman Upcoming
53% 32%
—
Dec 05 Providence 2018 South - Joannette @ NE Jr Dogs Upcoming
65% 23%
—
Dec 06 Providence 2018 South - Joannette @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum Upcoming
34% 53%
—
Dec 06 Little Stars - Gorman @ Minuteman Sparks O'Neil Upcoming
25% 64%
—
Dec 06 Boston jr Dogs White @ NE Jr Dogs Upcoming
72% 18%
—
Dec 12 Boston jr Dogs White @ Little Stars - Gorman Upcoming
53% 34%
—
Dec 12 Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum Upcoming
34% 53%
—
Dec 12 Providence 2018 South - Joannette @ Team Merrimack 18 -Femia Upcoming
17% 74%
—
Dec 13 Little Stars - Gorman @ Team Merrimack 18 -Femia Upcoming
13% 78%
—
Dec 13 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston jr Dogs White Upcoming
42% 45%
—
Dec 13 Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red @ Providence 2018 South - Joannette Upcoming
41% 46%
—
Dec 19 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Providence 2018 South - Joannette Upcoming
47% 39%
—
Dec 19 Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright @ Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red Upcoming
19% 74%
—
Dec 19 NE Jr Dogs @ Minuteman Sparks O'Neil Upcoming
11% 81%
—
Dec 19 Little Stars - Gorman @ Team Boston-Langmaid Upcoming
11% 81%
—
Dec 19 Boston jr Dogs White @ Team Merrimack 18 -Femia Upcoming
19% 71%
—
Dec 20 Little Stars - Gorman @ Providence 2018 South - Joannette Upcoming
33% 53%
—
Dec 20 Team Boston-Langmaid @ NE Jr Dogs Upcoming
90% 6%
—
Dec 20 Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red @ Boston jr Dogs White Upcoming
36% 53%
—
Dec 20 Minuteman Sparks O'Neil @ Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright Upcoming
76% 17%
—
Dec 20 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Merrimack 18 -Femia Upcoming
22% 67%
—
Dec 26 NE Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum Upcoming
15% 76%
—
Dec 26 Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright @ Team Boston-Langmaid Upcoming
4% 94%
—
Dec 27 Boston jr Dogs White @ Minuteman Sparks O'Neil Upcoming
36% 52%
—
Dec 27 Little Stars - Gorman @ Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright Upcoming
54% 35%
—
Dec 27 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Boston-Langmaid Upcoming
20% 70%
—
Jan 02 NE Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright Upcoming
32% 57%
—
Jan 02 Boston jr Dogs White @ Little Stars - Gorman Upcoming
53% 34%
—
Jan 02 Team Boston-Langmaid @ Team Merrimack 18 -Femia Upcoming
43% 45%
—
Jan 02 Minuteman Sparks O'Neil @ Providence 2018 South - Joannette Upcoming
50% 37%
—
Jan 02 Team Boston-Langmaid @ Team Merrimack 18 -Femia Upcoming
43% 45%
—
Jan 03 Team Merrimack 18 -Femia @ Minuteman Sparks O'Neil Upcoming
62% 28%
—
Jan 03 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red Upcoming
47% 40%
—
Jan 03 Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright @ Boston jr Dogs White Upcoming
15% 78%
—
Jan 03 Team Boston-Langmaid @ NE Jr Dogs Upcoming
90% 6%
—
Jan 09 Boston jr Dogs White @ Minuteman Sparks O'Neil Upcoming
36% 52%
—
Jan 09 Providence 2018 South - Joannette @ Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright Upcoming
64% 27%
—
Jan 09 Little Stars - Gorman @ NE Jr Dogs Upcoming
57% 29%
—
Jan 09 Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red @ Team Boston-Langmaid Upcoming
14% 79%
—
Jan 09 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Merrimack 18 -Femia Upcoming
22% 67%
—
Jan 10 Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red @ Little Stars - Gorman Upcoming
49% 38%
—
Jan 10 Team Boston-Langmaid @ Providence 2018 South - Joannette Upcoming
71% 19%
—
Jan 10 Team Merrimack 18 -Femia @ Boston jr Dogs White Upcoming
65% 24%
—
Jan 10 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ NE Jr Dogs Upcoming
71% 18%
—
Jan 10 Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright @ Minuteman Sparks O'Neil Upcoming
12% 82%
—
Jan 16 Providence 2018 South - Joannette @ Team Merrimack 18 -Femia Upcoming
17% 74%
—
Jan 17 Providence 2018 South - Joannette @ Boston jr Dogs White Upcoming
35% 53%
—
Jan 23 Team Merrimack 18 -Femia @ Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright Upcoming
90% 6%
—
Jan 23 NE Jr Dogs @ Team Boston-Langmaid Upcoming
4% 93%
—
Jan 23 Providence 2018 South - Joannette @ Minuteman Sparks O'Neil Upcoming
31% 57%
—
Jan 23 Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red @ Little Stars - Gorman Upcoming
49% 38%
—
Jan 24 Minuteman Sparks O'Neil @ Team Merrimack 18 -Femia Upcoming
22% 68%
—
Jan 24 Team Boston-Langmaid @ Providence 2018 South - Joannette Upcoming
71% 19%
—
Jan 24 Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright @ NE Jr Dogs Upcoming
50% 40%
—
Jan 30 NE Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack 18 -Femia Upcoming
5% 91%
—
Jan 30 Little Stars - Gorman @ Minuteman Sparks O'Neil Upcoming
25% 64%
—
Jan 30 Boston jr Dogs White @ Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red Upcoming
46% 43%
—
Jan 30 Team Boston-Langmaid @ Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright Upcoming
91% 5%
—
Jan 30 Minuteman Sparks O'Neil @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum Upcoming
42% 45%
—
Jan 30 Team Boston-Langmaid @ Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright Upcoming
91% 5%
—
Jan 31 Providence 2018 South - Joannette @ Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright Upcoming
64% 27%
—
Jan 31 Team Merrimack 18 -Femia @ Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red Upcoming
70% 21%
—
Jan 31 Team Boston-Langmaid @ Boston jr Dogs White Upcoming
68% 22%
—
Jan 31 NE Jr Dogs @ Little Stars - Gorman Upcoming
24% 63%
—
Jan 31 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Minuteman Sparks O'Neil Upcoming
38% 49%
—
Feb 06 Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright @ Minuteman Sparks O'Neil Upcoming
12% 82%
—
Feb 06 Little Stars - Gorman @ Team Merrimack 18 -Femia Upcoming
13% 78%
—
Feb 06 Boston jr Dogs White @ NE Jr Dogs Upcoming
72% 18%
—
Feb 06 Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red @ Team Boston-Langmaid Upcoming
14% 79%
—
Feb 07 NE Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright Upcoming
32% 57%
—
Feb 07 Team Boston-Langmaid @ Minuteman Sparks O'Neil Upcoming
65% 25%
—
Feb 07 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red Upcoming
47% 40%
—
Feb 07 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boston jr Dogs White Upcoming
28% 59%
—
Feb 13 Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red @ Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright Upcoming
66% 25%
—
Feb 13 Team Merrimack 18 -Femia @ Team Boston-Langmaid Upcoming
38% 50%
—
Feb 13 Minuteman Sparks O'Neil @ NE Jr Dogs Upcoming
76% 15%
—
Feb 14 Little Stars - Gorman @ Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright Upcoming
54% 35%
—
Feb 14 Team Boston-Langmaid @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum Upcoming
64% 25%
—
Feb 14 Team Merrimack 18 -Femia @ Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red Upcoming
70% 21%
—
Feb 14 Minuteman Sparks O'Neil @ Boston jr Dogs White Upcoming
45% 44%
—
Feb 20 Team Merrimack 18 -Femia @ Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright Upcoming
90% 6%
—
Feb 20 Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red @ Minuteman Sparks O'Neil Upcoming
32% 58%
—
Feb 20 NE Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum Upcoming
15% 76%
—
Feb 20 Little Stars - Gorman @ Providence 2018 South - Joannette Upcoming
33% 53%
—
Feb 21 Providence 2018 South - Joannette @ Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red Upcoming
39% 48%
—
Feb 21 Team Boston-Langmaid @ Minuteman Sparks O'Neil Upcoming
65% 25%
—
Feb 21 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Little Stars - Gorman Upcoming
53% 32%
—
Feb 21 NE Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack 18 -Femia Upcoming
5% 91%
—
Feb 27 Providence 2018 South - Joannette @ Team Boston-Langmaid Upcoming
15% 77%
—
Feb 27 Boston jr Dogs White @ Team Merrimack 18 -Femia Upcoming
19% 71%
—
Feb 27 Minuteman Sparks O'Neil @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum Upcoming
42% 45%
—
Feb 27 Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red @ NE Jr Dogs Upcoming
69% 21%
—
Feb 27 Providence 2018 South - Joannette @ Team Boston-Langmaid Upcoming
15% 77%
—
Feb 28 Boston jr Dogs White @ Team Merrimack - West 2018 - Enwright Upcoming
71% 21%
—
Feb 28 Team Merrimack 18 -Femia @ Providence 2018 South - Joannette Upcoming
68% 21%
—
Feb 28 Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Boston-Langmaid Upcoming
20% 70%
—
Feb 28 Little Stars - Gorman @ Boston Jr Dogs - 2018 TI Red Upcoming
32% 55%
—
Feb 28 Minuteman Sparks O'Neil @ NE Jr Dogs Upcoming
76% 15%
—