The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	GF	GA	PTS	Champ %
1	Boston Jr Dogs (White)	35	26	5	4	136	54	56	8%
2	Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	35	25	6	4	143	53	54	81%
3	Team Merrimack East	35	22	8	5	99	67	49	9%
4	Team Boston	35	13	17	5	63	90	31	3%
5	Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum	35	10	16	9	49	59	29	0%
6	MC Selects	35	11	19	5	57	117	27	0%
7	Providence (South) - Joannette	35	6	23	6	69	127	18	0%
8	South Shore Knights	35	5	24	6	56	105	16	0%

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

#	Team	Proj. Finish	Win Division	Proj. Points
1	Boston Jr Dogs (White)	1	100%	56 (56–56)
2	Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	2	<1%	54 (54–54)
3	Team Merrimack East	3	<1%	49 (49–49)
4	Team Boston	4	<1%	31 (31–31)
5	Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum	5	<1%	29 (29–29)
6	MC Selects	6	<1%	27 (26–28)
7	Providence (South) - Joannette	7	<1%	18 (18–18)
8	South Shore Knights	8	<1%	16 (15–17)

Game Log

Date	Matchup	Score	Pre-game Probability	Surprisal	Flag
Feb 22	Providence (South) - Joannette @ South Shore Knights	1–3	41% 41%	1.29
Feb 22	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum	3–0	69% 14%	0.53
Feb 22	MC Selects @ Team Boston	3–1	25% 57%	1.98
Feb 21	MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	0–8	4% 91%	0.14
Feb 21	South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	2–5	5% 89%	0.17
Feb 21	Team Boston @ Team Merrimack East	1–5	20% 63%	0.66
Feb 15	South Shore Knights @ Team Boston	2–2	26% 54%	2.39
Feb 15	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Providence (South) - Joannette	8–1	88% 6%	0.19
Feb 14	MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	1–4	4% 91%	0.14
Feb 14	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Boston	2–2	78% 11%	3.15	UPSET
Feb 08	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Merrimack East	3–3	59% 24%	2.61	UPSET
Feb 08	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum	1–1	69% 15%	2.64	UPSET
Feb 07	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	3–2	37% 46%	1.43
Feb 07	Team Boston @ MC Selects	2–0	50% 31%	0.99
Feb 07	Team Merrimack East @ South Shore Knights	3–0	70% 16%	0.52
Feb 01	Team Merrimack East @ Team Boston	3–0	58% 25%	0.79
Feb 01	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ MC Selects	8–1	87% 6%	0.20
Feb 01	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ South Shore Knights	1–0	88% 6%	0.19
Feb 01	Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Providence (South) - Joannette	2–2	49% 30%	2.25
Jan 31	South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	0–3	4% 90%	0.16
Jan 31	Team Merrimack East @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	2–1	18% 68%	2.47
Jan 31	Providence (South) - Joannette @ MC Selects	2–2	42% 41%	2.51
Jan 25	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Providence (South) - Joannette	7–0	87% 6%	0.20
Jan 25	Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Merrimack East	1–3	27% 50%	0.99
Jan 24	Providence (South) - Joannette @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	1–5	5% 89%	0.16
Jan 24	South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack East	2–3	14% 73%	0.46
Jan 24	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ MC Selects	4–0	87% 6%	0.20
Jan 24	Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum	1–0	31% 44%	1.68
Jan 18	South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum	1–4	24% 52%	0.93
Jan 18	South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum	2–1	23% 54%	2.11
Jan 11	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Merrimack East	3–4	63% 21%	2.23
Jan 11	Team Boston @ South Shore Knights	2–5	53% 27%	1.88
Jan 11	Team Boston @ South Shore Knights	1–1	54% 27%	2.41
Jan 11	MC Selects @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum	1–2	24% 54%	0.89
Jan 11	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Providence (South) - Joannette	2–2	89% 5%	4.02	UPSET
Jan 10	Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	3–0	7% 84%	3.85	UPSET
Jan 10	Providence (South) - Joannette @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	0–5	4% 91%	0.14
Jan 10	South Shore Knights @ MC Selects	2–3	35% 46%	1.13
Jan 10	Team Merrimack East @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum	1–2	47% 29%	1.77
Jan 04	Team Boston @ Team Merrimack East	2–4	22% 60%	0.74
Jan 04	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum	1–1	72% 13%	2.72	UPSET
Jan 04	MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	0–6	5% 89%	0.17
Jan 04	South Shore Knights @ Providence (South) - Joannette	1–1	31% 52%	2.60	UPSET
Jan 03	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	1–2	32% 52%	0.94
Jan 03	Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ South Shore Knights	2–1	50% 27%	0.98
Jan 03	Team Merrimack East @ Providence (South) - Joannette	3–2	67% 19%	0.58
Dec 28	MC Selects @ Providence (South) - Joannette	3–1	34% 50%	1.57
Dec 28	Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Boston	0–3	43% 34%	1.58
Dec 27	Providence (South) - Joannette @ Team Boston	0–1	36% 47%	1.08
Dec 21	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack East	4–2	64% 21%	0.65
Dec 21	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ South Shore Knights	7–3	87% 6%	0.20
Dec 21	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack East	1–2	67% 19%	2.43
Dec 21	Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Providence (South) - Joannette	3–0	45% 35%	1.16
Dec 20	Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	2–2	7% 84%	3.58	UPSET
Dec 20	South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	0–5	4% 91%	0.13
Dec 20	Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ MC Selects	1–1	50% 29%	2.21
Dec 20	Team Merrimack East @ Providence (South) - Joannette	5–2	61% 24%	0.71
Dec 14	Providence (South) - Joannette @ Team Boston	0–1	41% 43%	1.22
Dec 14	MC Selects @ Team Merrimack East	1–3	16% 69%	0.53
Dec 14	MC Selects @ Team Merrimack East	2–3	16% 70%	0.51
Dec 13	South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack East	1–2	14% 71%	0.50
Dec 13	Team Boston @ MC Selects	0–2	50% 32%	1.63
Dec 07	MC Selects @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum	1–1	24% 56%	2.27
Dec 07	Providence (South) - Joannette @ South Shore Knights	2–4	56% 28%	1.82
Dec 06	Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Merrimack East	1–1	27% 51%	2.20
Dec 06	Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	1–4	6% 86%	0.21
Dec 06	South Shore Knights @ MC Selects	1–3	38% 43%	1.21
Nov 30	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Team Boston	7–0	75% 13%	0.41
Nov 30	Providence (South) - Joannette @ Team Merrimack East	3–4	21% 66%	0.61
Nov 29	Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	1–2	14% 70%	0.51
Nov 29	Team Merrimack East @ Team Boston	4–1	51% 31%	0.98
Nov 23	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ South Shore Knights	3–1	87% 6%	0.20
Nov 22	South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum	2–2	22% 57%	2.24
Nov 22	Team Merrimack East @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	1–4	16% 70%	0.52
Nov 22	Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	1–4	12% 78%	0.36
Nov 22	Providence (South) - Joannette @ MC Selects	0–3	61% 25%	1.99
Nov 16	Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Providence (South) - Joannette	2–3	43% 37%	1.42
Nov 16	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ South Shore Knights	4–2	91% 4%	0.14
Nov 16	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ MC Selects	10–1	84% 8%	0.25
Nov 15	Providence (South) - Joannette @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	3–7	11% 79%	0.34
Nov 15	Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum	1–0	34% 44%	1.56
Nov 15	MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	1–5	3% 93%	0.11
Nov 09	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum	1–0	59% 22%	0.76
Nov 09	MC Selects @ South Shore Knights	1–1	44% 38%	2.44
Nov 09	Providence (South) - Joannette @ Team Merrimack East	4–4	22% 63%	2.73	UPSET
Nov 08	Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	0–2	13% 73%	0.45
Nov 08	South Shore Knights @ Team Boston	1–4	23% 60%	0.73
Nov 02	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ South Shore Knights	2–0	93% 3%	0.11
Nov 02	Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Merrimack East	2–2	28% 49%	2.08
Nov 02	MC Selects @ Team Boston	2–1	22% 63%	2.19
Nov 01	Team Merrimack East @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	1–2	27% 56%	0.84
Nov 01	MC Selects @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	2–4	2% 95%	0.07
Nov 01	Providence (South) - Joannette @ South Shore Knights	7–1	46% 37%	1.13
Nov 01	Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Team Boston	0–1	42% 36%	1.49
Oct 26	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Boston	7–2	79% 11%	0.33
Oct 26	Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ South Shore Knights	2–0	51% 28%	0.96
Oct 26	MC Selects @ Team Merrimack East	0–3	13% 74%	0.42
Oct 26	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Providence (South) - Joannette	1–2	85% 8%	3.71	UPSET
Oct 25	Team Merrimack East @ South Shore Knights	5–1	55% 26%	0.86
Oct 25	Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	1–4	13% 72%	0.48
Oct 25	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ MC Selects	9–1	80% 10%	0.32
Oct 25	Team Boston @ Providence (South) - Joannette	6–2	44% 39%	1.18
Oct 18	Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	2–3	12% 78%	0.36
Oct 18	Providence (South) - Joannette @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	2–4	4% 92%	0.13
Oct 18	Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ MC Selects	1–0	54% 27%	0.88
Oct 12	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Merrimack East	4–1	64% 20%	0.64
Oct 12	Providence (South) - Joannette @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum	3–2	20% 63%	2.29
Oct 11	Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	2–3	20% 62%	0.69
Oct 11	Team Merrimack East @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	3–3	14% 73%	2.92	UPSET
Oct 05	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Providence (South) - Joannette	4–3	94% 3%	0.09
Oct 05	Team Merrimack East @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	2–5	25% 56%	0.84
Oct 04	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	3–4	62% 23%	2.13
Oct 04	Team Merrimack East @ MC Selects	5–3	60% 21%	0.72
Oct 04	Team Boston @ Providence (South) - Joannette	4–4	52% 31%	2.56	UPSET
Sep 28	Team Boston @ Team Merrimack East	0–2	28% 52%	0.95
Sep 27	South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	1–7	21% 63%	0.66
Sep 27	Team Merrimack East @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum	0–1	45% 33%	1.58
Sep 27	MC Selects @ Providence (South) - Joannette	5–3	38% 44%	1.38
Sep 27	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Boston	1–3	94% 3%	5.19	UPSET
Sep 21	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Providence (South) - Joannette	8–1	92% 4%	0.13
Sep 21	Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ MC Selects	1–3	67% 17% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	2.53	UPSET
Sep 20	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	4–3	76% 13% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	0.40
Sep 20	MC Selects @ South Shore Knights	1–7	42% 38% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	1.40
Sep 20	Providence (South) - Joannette @ Team Boston	1–3	49% 36% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	1.48
Sep 14	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Team Boston	9–2	89% 5% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	0.17
Sep 14	Team Merrimack East @ South Shore Knights	3–2	50/50	—
Sep 14	Boston Jr Dogs (Red) @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum	2–2	50/50	—
Sep 14	Providence (South) - Joannette @ MC Selects	5–1	25% 59% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	1.99
Sep 13	Team Merrimack East @ Providence (South) - Joannette	6–0	50/50	—
Sep 13	Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum @ Boston Jr Dogs (White)	0–4	50/50	—
Sep 13	South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	2–5	50/50	—
Sep 13	Team Boston @ MC Selects	2–5	50/50	—
Sep 07	South Shore Knights @ Team Boston	2–4	50/50	—
Sep 07	Providence (South) - Joannette @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum	2–5	50/50	—
Sep 07	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ MC Selects	10–1	50/50	—
Sep 06	Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2018 Platinum	1–3	50/50	—
Sep 06	Boston Jr Dogs (White) @ Boston Jr Dogs (Red)	3–1	50/50	—
Sep 06	Team Merrimack East @ MC Selects	1–3	50/50	—
Sep 06	South Shore Knights @ Providence (South) - Joannette	2–4	50/50	—
Aug 01	MC Selects @ South Shore Knights	0–0	50/50	—