The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Boch Blazers - Filoon 10 8 2 0 52 21 16 —
2 NorthStars - Barrows 9 7 0 2 55 17 16 —
3 NorthStars - Fournier 7 6 1 0 44 11 12 —
4 Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan 11 4 6 1 35 52 9 —
5 Minuteman Flames Lester 9 4 4 1 34 36 9 —
6 Northeast Generals Remes 7 3 2 2 30 19 8 —
7 Shamrocks - Clapp 9 2 7 0 30 50 4 —
8 Northern Cyclones- Ellis 5 1 4 0 15 31 2 —
9 IHC West 2013 - Villa 9 0 9 0 11 69 0 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 NorthStars - Fournier 2 (1–3) 47% 59 (51–65)
2 NorthStars - Barrows 2 (1–3) 44% 58 (50–65)
3 Boch Blazers - Filoon 3 (2–4) 8% 52 (46–58)
4 Northeast Generals Remes 4 (3–5) <1% 45 (38–52)
5 Minuteman Flames Lester 5 (5–7) <1% 33 (26–41)
6 Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan 6 (5–7) <1% 30 (23–40)
7 Northern Cyclones- Ellis 7 (5–8) <1% 25 (12–40)
8 Shamrocks - Clapp 8 (7–8) <1% 18 (13–24)
9 IHC West 2013 - Villa 9 <1% 3 (0–8)
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Sep 05 Boch Blazers - Filoon @ Shamrocks - Clapp 8–3 50/50 —
Sep 05 Minuteman Flames Lester @ IHC West 2013 - Villa 7–1 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boch Blazers - Filoon @ IHC West 2013 - Villa 9–0 50/50 —
Sep 06 Minuteman Flames Lester @ Shamrocks - Clapp 4–2 50/50 —
Sep 12 IHC West 2013 - Villa @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan 1–8 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan @ Northeast Generals Remes 2–5 50/50 —
Sep 19 Minuteman Flames Lester @ Shamrocks - Clapp 8–4 50/50 —
Sep 19 Boch Blazers - Filoon @ NorthStars - Fournier 1–5 50/50 —
Sep 19 Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan @ NorthStars - Barrows 1–7 50/50 —
Sep 20 Minuteman Flames Lester @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan 2–3
80% 3%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
5.03 UPSET
Sep 20 Shamrocks - Clapp @ IHC West 2013 - Villa 6–2
75% 15%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.41
Sep 20 Boch Blazers - Filoon @ Northern Cyclones- Ellis 6–1 50/50 —
Sep 26 NorthStars - Barrows @ Shamrocks - Clapp 7–2 50/50 —
Sep 26 Northern Cyclones- Ellis @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan 3–10 50/50 —
Sep 26 Minuteman Flames Lester @ Boch Blazers - Filoon 0–6
32% 53%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.90
Sep 27 Northeast Generals Remes @ NorthStars - Barrows 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 27 Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan @ NorthStars - Fournier 1–7 50/50 —
Oct 03 Shamrocks - Clapp @ IHC West 2013 - Villa 5–2
77% 14%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.38
Oct 03 Boch Blazers - Filoon @ Northeast Generals Remes 3–2 50/50 —
Oct 03 NorthStars - Fournier @ NorthStars - Barrows 2–6 50/50 —
Oct 03 Minuteman Flames Lester @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan 3–3
43% 42%
2.74
Oct 04 Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan @ Shamrocks - Clapp 5–2
62% 26%
0.69
Oct 04 Northeast Generals Remes @ Boch Blazers - Filoon 1–3
27% 57%
0.81
Oct 10 Northeast Generals Remes @ IHC West 2013 - Villa 7–3
94% 3%
0.09
Oct 10 Boch Blazers - Filoon @ NorthStars - Barrows 3–9
37% 47%
1.10
Oct 10 Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan @ NorthStars - Fournier 1–7
16% 73%
0.45
Oct 10 Minuteman Flames Lester @ Shamrocks - Clapp 10–4
64% 23%
0.65
Oct 11 NorthStars - Barrows @ Northern Cyclones- Ellis 8–0 50/50 —
Oct 11 Northeast Generals Remes @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan 8–1
54% 30%
0.88
Oct 17 NorthStars - Barrows @ Shamrocks - Clapp 4–2
97% 1%
0.05
Oct 17 NorthStars - Fournier @ Minuteman Flames Lester 7–0
70% 18%
0.52
Oct 17 IHC West 2013 - Villa @ Northern Cyclones- Ellis 1–10
23% 65%
0.62
Oct 18 IHC West 2013 - Villa @ NorthStars - Fournier 1–10
0% 100%
0.00
Oct 24 NorthStars - Barrows @ Northeast Generals Remes 4–4
62% 24%
2.83 UPSET
Oct 24 Minuteman Flames Lester @ Boch Blazers - Filoon 0–6
16% 73%
—
Oct 24 Northern Cyclones- Ellis @ NorthStars - Fournier 1–6
2% 96%
—
Oct 25 Northern Cyclones- Ellis @ Minuteman Flames Lester Upcoming
20% 69%
—
Oct 25 IHC West 2013 - Villa @ NorthStars - Barrows 0–7
0% 100%
—
Oct 25 Boch Blazers - Filoon @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan 7–0
72% 16%
—
Oct 31 Northern Cyclones- Ellis @ Shamrocks - Clapp Upcoming
44% 43%
—
Oct 31 Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan @ IHC West 2013 - Villa Upcoming
90% 5%
—
Nov 01 Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan @ IHC West 2013 - Villa Upcoming
90% 5%
—
Nov 07 Shamrocks - Clapp @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan Upcoming
21% 67%
—
Nov 07 NorthStars - Barrows @ Boch Blazers - Filoon Upcoming
56% 29%
—
Nov 08 Boch Blazers - Filoon @ Minuteman Flames Lester Upcoming
68% 19%
—
Nov 08 Northeast Generals Remes @ IHC West 2013 - Villa Upcoming
98% 1%
—
Nov 08 Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan @ NorthStars - Barrows Upcoming
6% 89%
—
Nov 14 Minuteman Flames Lester @ IHC West 2013 - Villa Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Nov 14 NorthStars - Barrows @ Northeast Generals Remes Upcoming
59% 27%
—
Nov 14 Northern Cyclones- Ellis @ NorthStars - Fournier Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Nov 14 Boch Blazers - Filoon @ Shamrocks - Clapp Upcoming
88% 6%
—
Nov 15 Boch Blazers - Filoon @ Northern Cyclones- Ellis Upcoming
87% 7%
—
Nov 15 Northeast Generals Remes @ NorthStars - Fournier Upcoming
22% 65%
—
Nov 15 Shamrocks - Clapp @ Minuteman Flames Lester Upcoming
18% 71%
—
Nov 15 IHC West 2013 - Villa @ NorthStars - Barrows Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Nov 21 Northeast Generals Remes @ Northern Cyclones- Ellis Upcoming
85% 8%
—
Nov 21 IHC West 2013 - Villa @ Boch Blazers - Filoon Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Nov 21 NorthStars - Fournier @ Shamrocks - Clapp Upcoming
95% 2%
—
Nov 21 Minuteman Flames Lester @ NorthStars - Barrows Upcoming
7% 86%
—
Nov 22 Shamrocks - Clapp @ Northeast Generals Remes Upcoming
5% 89%
—
Nov 22 Northern Cyclones- Ellis @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan Upcoming
24% 64%
—
Nov 22 Boch Blazers - Filoon @ NorthStars - Fournier Upcoming
23% 63%
—
Nov 28 Northern Cyclones- Ellis @ IHC West 2013 - Villa Upcoming
82% 10%
—
Nov 28 Northeast Generals Remes @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan Upcoming
70% 18%
—
Nov 28 NorthStars - Barrows @ NorthStars - Fournier Upcoming
38% 46%
—
Nov 28 Shamrocks - Clapp @ Boch Blazers - Filoon Upcoming
5% 91%
—
Nov 29 Boch Blazers - Filoon @ Northern Cyclones- Ellis Upcoming
87% 7%
—
Nov 29 Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan @ Shamrocks - Clapp Upcoming
61% 26%
—
Nov 29 NorthStars - Fournier @ Northeast Generals Remes Upcoming
60% 26%
—
Nov 29 NorthStars - Barrows @ IHC West 2013 - Villa Upcoming
100% 0%
—
Dec 05 Shamrocks - Clapp @ Northeast Generals Remes Upcoming
5% 89%
—
Dec 05 IHC West 2013 - Villa @ NorthStars - Fournier Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Dec 05 NorthStars - Barrows @ Minuteman Flames Lester Upcoming
83% 9%
—
Dec 05 Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan @ Boch Blazers - Filoon Upcoming
13% 77%
—
Dec 06 Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan @ NorthStars - Barrows Upcoming
6% 89%
—
Dec 06 Northeast Generals Remes @ Northern Cyclones- Ellis Upcoming
85% 8%
—
Dec 06 Boch Blazers - Filoon @ IHC West 2013 - Villa Upcoming
98% 1%
—
Dec 06 NorthStars - Fournier @ Minuteman Flames Lester Upcoming
83% 9%
—
Dec 12 Northeast Generals Remes @ Minuteman Flames Lester Upcoming
66% 22%
—
Dec 12 Northern Cyclones- Ellis @ NorthStars - Barrows Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Dec 12 IHC West 2013 - Villa @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan Upcoming
4% 92%
—
Dec 12 NorthStars - Fournier @ Boch Blazers - Filoon Upcoming
58% 28%
—
Dec 13 Shamrocks - Clapp @ NorthStars - Fournier Upcoming
1% 97%
—
Dec 13 Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan @ Northeast Generals Remes Upcoming
15% 75%
—
Dec 13 Minuteman Flames Lester @ Northern Cyclones- Ellis Upcoming
64% 24%
—
Dec 19 IHC West 2013 - Villa @ Shamrocks - Clapp Upcoming
9% 83%
—
Dec 19 NorthStars - Fournier @ Northern Cyclones- Ellis Upcoming
95% 2%
—
Dec 19 Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan @ Minuteman Flames Lester Upcoming
35% 50%
—
Dec 19 Northeast Generals Remes @ Boch Blazers - Filoon Upcoming
37% 47%
—
Dec 20 Boch Blazers - Filoon @ NorthStars - Barrows Upcoming
24% 62%
—
Dec 20 Minuteman Flames Lester @ NorthStars - Fournier Upcoming
7% 86%
—
Dec 20 Northern Cyclones- Ellis @ Northeast Generals Remes Upcoming
6% 88%
—
Dec 26 Boch Blazers - Filoon @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan Upcoming
72% 16%
—
Dec 26 NorthStars - Barrows @ Minuteman Flames Lester Upcoming
83% 9%
—
Dec 26 Northeast Generals Remes @ NorthStars - Fournier Upcoming
22% 65%
—
Dec 26 Shamrocks - Clapp @ Northern Cyclones- Ellis Upcoming
37% 50%
—
Dec 27 Northeast Generals Remes @ Minuteman Flames Lester Upcoming
66% 22%
—
Dec 27 Shamrocks - Clapp @ NorthStars - Barrows Upcoming
1% 97%
—
Dec 27 NorthStars - Fournier @ IHC West 2013 - Villa Upcoming
100% 0%
—
Dec 27 Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan @ Northern Cyclones- Ellis Upcoming
58% 29%
—
Jan 02 Northeast Generals Remes @ Shamrocks - Clapp Upcoming
86% 7%
—
Jan 02 IHC West 2013 - Villa @ Minuteman Flames Lester Upcoming
3% 94%
—
Jan 02 NorthStars - Barrows @ Northern Cyclones- Ellis Upcoming
95% 2%
—
Jan 02 NorthStars - Fournier @ Boch Blazers - Filoon Upcoming
58% 28%
—
Jan 03 NorthStars - Barrows @ NorthStars - Fournier Upcoming
38% 46%
—
Jan 03 Boch Blazers - Filoon @ Northeast Generals Remes Upcoming
42% 42%
—
Jan 03 Shamrocks - Clapp @ IHC West 2013 - Villa Upcoming
79% 12%
—
Jan 03 Minuteman Flames Lester @ Northern Cyclones- Ellis Upcoming
64% 24%
—
Jan 09 Boch Blazers - Filoon @ Minuteman Flames Lester Upcoming
68% 19%
—
Jan 09 IHC West 2013 - Villa @ Northeast Generals Remes Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Jan 09 Northern Cyclones- Ellis @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan Upcoming
24% 64%
—
Jan 09 Shamrocks - Clapp @ NorthStars - Barrows Upcoming
1% 97%
—
Jan 10 Shamrocks - Clapp @ Minuteman Flames Lester Upcoming
18% 71%
—
Jan 10 NorthStars - Fournier @ Northeast Generals Remes Upcoming
60% 26%
—
Jan 10 Northern Cyclones- Ellis @ Boch Blazers - Filoon Upcoming
5% 90%
—
Jan 10 NorthStars - Barrows @ IHC West 2013 - Villa Upcoming
100% 0%
—
Jan 16 IHC West 2013 - Villa @ Boch Blazers - Filoon Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Jan 16 NorthStars - Fournier @ Shamrocks - Clapp Upcoming
95% 2%
—
Jan 16 Minuteman Flames Lester @ NorthStars - Barrows Upcoming
7% 86%
—
Jan 17 Northeast Generals Remes @ Shamrocks - Clapp Upcoming
86% 7%
—
Jan 17 Minuteman Flames Lester @ Boch Blazers - Filoon Upcoming
16% 73%
—
Jan 17 NorthStars - Barrows @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan Upcoming
86% 7%
—
Jan 23 Minuteman Flames Lester @ Northeast Generals Remes Upcoming
18% 70%
—
Jan 23 NorthStars - Barrows @ NorthStars - Fournier Upcoming
38% 46%
—
Jan 23 IHC West 2013 - Villa @ Northern Cyclones- Ellis Upcoming
8% 86%
—
Jan 24 Northern Cyclones- Ellis @ Minuteman Flames Lester Upcoming
20% 69%
—
Jan 24 NorthStars - Fournier @ IHC West 2013 - Villa Upcoming
100% 0%
—
Jan 24 Northeast Generals Remes @ NorthStars - Barrows Upcoming
22% 64%
—
Jan 24 Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan @ Boch Blazers - Filoon Upcoming
13% 77%
—
Jan 30 IHC West 2013 - Villa @ Minuteman Flames Lester Upcoming
3% 94%
—
Jan 30 Northern Cyclones- Ellis @ NorthStars - Fournier Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Jan 31 Northern Cyclones- Ellis @ Northeast Generals Remes Upcoming
6% 88%
—
Jan 31 IHC West 2013 - Villa @ Shamrocks - Clapp Upcoming
9% 83%
—
Feb 06 NorthStars - Fournier @ Minuteman Flames Lester Upcoming
83% 9%
—
Feb 06 Shamrocks - Clapp @ Northern Cyclones- Ellis Upcoming
37% 50%
—
Feb 06 NorthStars - Fournier @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan Upcoming
86% 7%
—
Feb 06 Northeast Generals Remes @ Boch Blazers - Filoon Upcoming
37% 47%
—
Feb 06 NorthStars - Barrows @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan Upcoming
86% 7%
—
Feb 07 IHC West 2013 - Villa @ Northeast Generals Remes Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Feb 07 NorthStars - Fournier @ Northern Cyclones- Ellis Upcoming
95% 2%
—
Feb 07 Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan @ Minuteman Flames Lester Upcoming
35% 50%
—
Feb 07 Shamrocks - Clapp @ NorthStars - Barrows Upcoming
1% 97%
—
Feb 13 NorthStars - Fournier @ NorthStars - Barrows Upcoming
41% 44%
—
Feb 13 Minuteman Flames Lester @ Northeast Generals Remes Upcoming
18% 70%
—
Feb 13 Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan @ Shamrocks - Clapp Upcoming
61% 26%
—
Feb 13 Northern Cyclones- Ellis @ Boch Blazers - Filoon Upcoming
5% 90%
—
Feb 14 Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan @ Northern Cyclones- Ellis Upcoming
58% 29%
—
Feb 20 Boch Blazers - Filoon @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan Upcoming
72% 16%
—
Feb 20 IHC West 2013 - Villa @ Minuteman Flames Lester Upcoming
3% 94%
—
Feb 20 Shamrocks - Clapp @ NorthStars - Fournier Upcoming
1% 97%
—
Feb 20 Northern Cyclones- Ellis @ NorthStars - Barrows Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Feb 21 Northern Cyclones- Ellis @ IHC West 2013 - Villa Upcoming
82% 10%
—
Feb 21 NorthStars - Fournier @ Northeast Generals Remes Upcoming
60% 26%
—
Feb 21 Shamrocks - Clapp @ Boch Blazers - Filoon Upcoming
5% 91%
—
Feb 27 NorthStars - Barrows @ Boch Blazers - Filoon Upcoming
56% 29%
—
Feb 27 Northeast Generals Remes @ IHC West 2013 - Villa Upcoming
98% 1%
—
Feb 27 Northern Cyclones- Ellis @ Shamrocks - Clapp Upcoming
44% 43%
—
Feb 27 NorthStars - Fournier @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan Upcoming
86% 7%
—
Feb 28 Minuteman Flames Lester @ NorthStars - Fournier Upcoming
7% 86%
—
Feb 28 IHC West 2013 - Villa @ Northern Cyclones- Ellis Upcoming
8% 86%
—
Feb 28 NorthStars - Barrows @ Northeast Generals Remes Upcoming
59% 27%
—
Feb 28 Shamrocks - Clapp @ Boston Jr. Terriers Red Tier 1 - 2013 O'Sullivan Upcoming
21% 67%
—