The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Providence 2019 North - Lyman 11 8 2 1 38 15 17 —
2 Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold 11 7 2 2 42 36 16 —
3 South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks 8 6 2 0 60 9 12 —
4 Little Stars - Risotti 8 5 2 1 21 11 11 —
5 Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright 6 3 3 0 24 20 6 —
6 Greater Boston Venom 2019 9 3 6 0 43 37 6 —
7 Team Boch - Nolan 9 1 7 1 22 56 3 —
8 Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 12 1 10 1 15 81 3 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks 1 (1–4) 52% 57 (45–64)
2 Providence 2019 North - Lyman 2 (1–3) 38% 56 (48–61)
3 Little Stars - Risotti 3 (2–5) 2% 47 (40–54)
4 Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold 4 (2–5) 7% 45 (37–53)
5 Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright 5 (3–6) 1% 37 (30–45)
6 Greater Boston Venom 2019 6 (5–6) <1% 30 (23–37)
7 Team Boch - Nolan 7 (7–8) <1% 10 (6–17)
8 Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 8 (7–8) <1% 7 (3–11)
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Sep 06 Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold @ Greater Boston Venom 2019 8–5 50/50 —
Sep 12 Team Boch - Nolan @ Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold 2–11 50/50 —
Sep 13 South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks @ Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 12–0 50/50 —
Sep 13 Providence 2019 North - Lyman @ Greater Boston Venom 2019 8–1 50/50 —
Sep 19 Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 @ Team Boch - Nolan 5–3 50/50 —
Sep 19 Providence 2019 North - Lyman @ Little Stars - Risotti 3–2 50/50 —
Sep 19 Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold @ South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks 4–2 50/50 —
Sep 19 Greater Boston Venom 2019 @ Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright 4–6 50/50 —
Sep 20 Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright @ Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold 3–4 50/50 —
Sep 20 South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks @ Providence 2019 North - Lyman 5–1 50/50 —
Sep 20 Little Stars - Risotti @ Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 6–1 50/50 —
Sep 26 Little Stars - Risotti @ Providence 2019 North - Lyman 2–1 50/50 —
Sep 26 Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 @ Greater Boston Venom 2019 3–16
22% 67%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.58
Sep 26 Team Boch - Nolan @ Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold 1–5 50/50 —
Sep 27 Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright @ Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 Upcoming 50/50 —
Sep 27 Little Stars - Risotti @ South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks 1–0
20% 66%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
2.31
Oct 03 Providence 2019 North - Lyman @ Team Boch - Nolan 8–0
85% 8%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.23
Oct 03 Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 @ South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks 1–9
0% 99%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.02
Oct 03 Little Stars - Risotti @ Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold 2–2
32% 51%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
2.63 UPSET
Oct 03 Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright @ Greater Boston Venom 2019 4–3 50/50 —
Oct 04 Little Stars - Risotti @ Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright 4–1
47% 36%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.10
Oct 04 Team Boch - Nolan @ Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 9–0
48% 38%
1.06
Oct 10 Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright @ Team Boch - Nolan 7–0
74% 15%
0.42
Oct 10 South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks @ Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold 16–1
42% 42%
1.23
Oct 10 Providence 2019 North - Lyman @ Greater Boston Venom 2019 1–0
77% 14%
0.38
Oct 10 Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 @ Little Stars - Risotti 1–4
1% 97%
0.04
Oct 11 Team Boch - Nolan @ Greater Boston Venom 2019 3–8
7% 87%
0.21
Oct 11 Providence 2019 North - Lyman @ Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 4–0
98% 1%
0.03
Oct 17 Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright @ Providence 2019 North - Lyman 3–5
26% 58%
0.78
Oct 17 Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 @ Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold 0–2
1% 97%
0.04
Oct 18 Greater Boston Venom 2019 @ Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold 0–3
34% 54%
0.89
Oct 18 Team Boch - Nolan @ Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 3–3
56% 30%
2.85 UPSET
Oct 18 Providence 2019 North - Lyman @ Little Stars - Risotti 2–0
41% 40%
1.27
Oct 24 South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks @ Team Boch - Nolan 9–1
100% 0%
0.01
Oct 24 Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold @ Providence 2019 North - Lyman 1–4
21% 65%
0.61
Oct 24 Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 @ Greater Boston Venom 2019 1–6
3% 94%
0.09
Oct 25 Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold @ Providence 2019 North - Lyman 1–1
18% 69%
—
Oct 25 South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks @ Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 7–0
100% 0%
—
Oct 31 Greater Boston Venom 2019 @ Providence 2019 North - Lyman Upcoming
12% 78%
—
Oct 31 Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold @ Team Boch - Nolan Upcoming
87% 7%
—
Nov 01 Little Stars - Risotti @ Greater Boston Venom 2019 Upcoming
62% 23%
—
Nov 01 Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright @ Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold Upcoming
41% 44%
—
Nov 07 Team Boch - Nolan @ South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Nov 07 Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold @ Little Stars - Risotti Upcoming
26% 57%
—
Nov 08 Team Boch - Nolan @ Greater Boston Venom 2019 Upcoming
6% 88%
—
Nov 08 Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold @ Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Nov 08 South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks @ Little Stars - Risotti Upcoming
66% 20%
—
Nov 14 Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright @ South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks Upcoming
7% 87%
—
Nov 14 Team Boch - Nolan @ Little Stars - Risotti Upcoming
4% 92%
—
Nov 14 Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright @ South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks Upcoming
7% 87%
—
Nov 15 Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 @ Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright Upcoming
2% 95%
—
Nov 15 Providence 2019 North - Lyman @ Team Boch - Nolan Upcoming
95% 2%
—
Nov 21 Team Boch - Nolan @ Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright Upcoming
5% 91%
—
Nov 21 Providence 2019 North - Lyman @ Greater Boston Venom 2019 Upcoming
74% 15%
—
Nov 22 Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright @ Little Stars - Risotti Upcoming
27% 57%
—
Nov 22 Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 @ Providence 2019 North - Lyman Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Nov 28 Little Stars - Risotti @ Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright Upcoming
52% 31%
—
Nov 28 Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 @ Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold Upcoming
2% 94%
—
Nov 28 Providence 2019 North - Lyman @ South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks Upcoming
24% 61%
—
Nov 28 Greater Boston Venom 2019 @ Team Boch - Nolan Upcoming
85% 8%
—
Nov 29 Greater Boston Venom 2019 @ South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks Upcoming
3% 94%
—
Nov 29 Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 @ Little Stars - Risotti Upcoming
2% 94%
—
Nov 29 Providence 2019 North - Lyman @ Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright Upcoming
64% 22%
—
Nov 29 Team Boch - Nolan @ Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold Upcoming
5% 90%
—
Dec 05 Greater Boston Venom 2019 @ Team Boch - Nolan Upcoming
85% 8%
—
Dec 05 Little Stars - Risotti @ Providence 2019 North - Lyman Upcoming
30% 51%
—
Dec 05 Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright @ Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold Upcoming
41% 44%
—
Dec 05 Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 @ South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Dec 06 Little Stars - Risotti @ Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold Upcoming
53% 30%
—
Dec 06 Greater Boston Venom 2019 @ Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Dec 06 South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks @ Providence 2019 North - Lyman Upcoming
56% 28%
—
Dec 12 Little Stars - Risotti @ South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks Upcoming
17% 70%
—
Dec 12 Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright @ Providence 2019 North - Lyman Upcoming
19% 68%
—
Dec 13 Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright @ Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 Upcoming
93% 3%
—
Dec 13 Greater Boston Venom 2019 @ South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks Upcoming
3% 94%
—
Dec 13 Little Stars - Risotti @ Team Boch - Nolan Upcoming
90% 5%
—
Dec 19 Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright @ Team Boch - Nolan Upcoming
88% 6%
—
Dec 19 Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 @ Providence 2019 North - Lyman Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Dec 19 Greater Boston Venom 2019 @ Little Stars - Risotti Upcoming
20% 67%
—
Dec 19 South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks @ Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold Upcoming
84% 8%
—
Dec 20 South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks @ Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright Upcoming
84% 9%
—
Dec 20 Little Stars - Risotti @ Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 Upcoming
93% 3%
—
Dec 20 Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold @ Greater Boston Venom 2019 Upcoming
50% 37%
—
Dec 20 Team Boch - Nolan @ Providence 2019 North - Lyman Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Dec 26 Greater Boston Venom 2019 @ Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright Upcoming
30% 57%
—
Dec 26 Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold @ South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks Upcoming
6% 87%
—
Dec 27 South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks @ Team Boch - Nolan Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Dec 27 Greater Boston Venom 2019 @ Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Dec 27 Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright @ Little Stars - Risotti Upcoming
27% 57%
—
Jan 02 Little Stars - Risotti @ Team Boch - Nolan Upcoming
90% 5%
—
Jan 02 Providence 2019 North - Lyman @ Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold Upcoming
64% 21%
—
Jan 02 South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks @ Greater Boston Venom 2019 Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Jan 02 Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 @ Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright Upcoming
2% 95%
—
Jan 03 Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold @ Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Jan 03 South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks @ Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright Upcoming
84% 9%
—
Jan 03 Greater Boston Venom 2019 @ Little Stars - Risotti Upcoming
20% 67%
—
Jan 03 Team Boch - Nolan @ Providence 2019 North - Lyman Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Jan 09 Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 @ Team Boch - Nolan Upcoming
25% 61%
—
Jan 09 South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks @ Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright Upcoming
84% 9%
—
Jan 09 Greater Boston Venom 2019 @ Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold Upcoming
31% 56%
—
Jan 09 Providence 2019 North - Lyman @ Little Stars - Risotti Upcoming
47% 34%
—
Jan 10 Providence 2019 North - Lyman @ Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 Upcoming
97% 1%
—
Jan 10 Team Boch - Nolan @ South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Jan 10 Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold @ Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright Upcoming
39% 46%
—
Jan 17 Greater Boston Venom 2019 @ Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Jan 17 Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold @ Team Boch - Nolan Upcoming
87% 7%
—
Jan 23 Greater Boston Venom 2019 @ Team Boch - Nolan Upcoming
85% 8%
—
Jan 23 Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 @ Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright Upcoming
2% 95%
—
Jan 23 Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold @ Little Stars - Risotti Upcoming
26% 57%
—
Jan 23 Providence 2019 North - Lyman @ South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks Upcoming
24% 61%
—
Jan 24 Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold @ Greater Boston Venom 2019 Upcoming
50% 37%
—
Jan 24 Team Boch - Nolan @ Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 Upcoming
56% 30%
—
Jan 24 Little Stars - Risotti @ South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks Upcoming
17% 70%
—
Jan 30 Little Stars - Risotti @ Greater Boston Venom 2019 Upcoming
62% 23%
—
Jan 30 South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks @ Team Boch - Nolan Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Jan 30 Providence 2019 North - Lyman @ Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright Upcoming
64% 22%
—
Jan 31 Greater Boston Venom 2019 @ Providence 2019 North - Lyman Upcoming
12% 78%
—
Jan 31 Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold @ Little Stars - Risotti Upcoming
26% 57%
—
Jan 31 Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright @ South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks Upcoming
7% 87%
—
Feb 06 Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 @ Team Boch - Nolan Upcoming
25% 61%
—
Feb 06 Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold @ Providence 2019 North - Lyman Upcoming
18% 69%
—
Feb 06 South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks @ Little Stars - Risotti Upcoming
66% 20%
—
Feb 06 Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright @ Greater Boston Venom 2019 Upcoming
51% 36%
—
Feb 07 Team Boch - Nolan @ Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright Upcoming
5% 91%
—
Feb 07 Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold @ Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Feb 07 Providence 2019 North - Lyman @ South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks Upcoming
24% 61%
—
Feb 13 Little Stars - Risotti @ Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright Upcoming
52% 31%
—
Feb 13 South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks @ Greater Boston Venom 2019 Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Feb 14 Providence 2019 North - Lyman @ Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 Upcoming
97% 1%
—
Feb 14 Team Boch - Nolan @ Little Stars - Risotti Upcoming
4% 92%
—
Feb 20 Greater Boston Venom 2019 @ Providence 2019 North - Lyman Upcoming
12% 78%
—
Feb 20 Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 @ South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Feb 20 Little Stars - Risotti @ Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold Upcoming
53% 30%
—
Feb 20 Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright @ Team Boch - Nolan Upcoming
88% 6%
—
Feb 21 Team Boch - Nolan @ Providence 2019 North - Lyman Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Feb 21 Boston Jr. Dogs White Tier 1 - Mite Minor 2019 @ Little Stars - Risotti Upcoming
2% 94%
—
Feb 21 South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks @ Greater Boston Venom 2019 Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Feb 21 Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold @ Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright Upcoming
39% 46%
—
Feb 27 Greater Boston Venom 2019 @ Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright Upcoming
30% 57%
—
Feb 27 Providence 2019 North - Lyman @ Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold Upcoming
64% 21%
—
Feb 27 Team Boch - Nolan @ Little Stars - Risotti Upcoming
4% 92%
—
Feb 28 South Shore Knights 2019 Brooks @ Bay State Waves 2019 Upper Gold Upcoming
84% 8%
—
Feb 28 Little Stars - Risotti @ Greater Boston Venom 2019 Upcoming
62% 23%
—
Feb 28 Team Merrimack West 2019 - Enwright @ Providence 2019 North - Lyman Upcoming
19% 68%
—