Season Review

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS
1 Islanders Hockey Club 36 28 4 4 184 67 60
2 Boston Jr Eagles 37 28 5 4 189 89 60
3 Minuteman Flames 36 21 12 3 121 110 45
4 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 38 18 15 5 130 101 41
5 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 14 13 0 1 100 26 27
6 South Shore Kings 37 11 22 4 88 133 26
7 Top Gun 36 8 22 6 70 149 22
8 Boston Jr Terriers 35 8 26 1 74 162 17
9 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 37 3 32 2 50 169 8

Game Log

Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Feb 22 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 4–2
51.5%
26.3%
0.96
Feb 22 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 4–3
90.7%
3.4%
0.14
Feb 22 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 0–4
9.4%
78.2%
0.36
Feb 21 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 1–3
23.9%
59.2%
0.76
Feb 21 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 2–5
4.2%
86.6%
0.21
Feb 21 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 7–2
71.5%
13.8%
0.48
Feb 21 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 2–2
23.9%
59.2%
2.56 UPSET
Feb 15 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–2
80.0%
10.0%
0.32
Feb 14 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 3–1
33.4%
47.4%
1.58
Feb 08 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–1
25.6%
59.2%
1.97
Feb 08 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 2–6
15.0%
69.6%
0.52
Feb 08 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–2
84.3%
7.0%
0.25
Feb 07 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 5–0
97.8%
0.5%
0.03
Feb 07 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–3
79.3%
10.2%
0.33
Feb 07 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–7
6.9%
85.3%
0.23
Feb 06 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 9–2
95.6%
1.8%
0.06
Feb 01 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 0–2
10.3%
79.7%
0.33
Feb 01 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 5–2
65.5%
14.4%
0.61
Feb 01 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 3–2
74.0%
12.7%
0.43
Jan 31 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–6
10.0%
79.5%
0.33
Jan 31 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Top Gun 3–5
20.6%
53.7%
0.90
Jan 31 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–4
22.5%
62.3%
2.71 UPSET
Jan 31 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 4–1
20.4%
63.8%
2.30
Jan 31 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 5–0
79.5%
10.0%
0.33
Jan 29 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–8
1.9%
94.0%
0.09
Jan 25 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Minuteman Flames 2–4
5.3%
84.5%
0.24
Jan 25 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ South Shore Kings 3–1
63.4%
19.3%
0.66
Jan 25 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–1
96.7%
1.3%
0.05
Jan 24 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 0–0
53.7%
25.8%
2.29
Jan 24 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 5–2
72.0%
13.8%
0.47
Jan 18 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 2–4
33.9%
46.6%
1.10
Jan 17 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Top Gun 4–1
74.7%
10.9%
0.42
Jan 11 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–11
0.8%
97.5%
0.04
Jan 11 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 4–0
91.5%
3.5%
0.13
Jan 11 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 2–0
86.3%
4.3%
0.21
Jan 11 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 2–3
61.9%
21.8%
2.20
Jan 10 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–3
67.4%
18.2%
2.46
Jan 10 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–7
1.2%
96.2%
0.06
Jan 10 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 8–2
93.1%
2.1%
0.10
Jan 10 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 5–2
42.1%
38.6%
1.25
Jan 04 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–1
12.3%
74.8%
2.96 UPSET
Jan 04 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 6–1
59.8%
26.0%
0.74
Jan 04 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 5–1
59.8%
26.0%
0.74
Jan 03 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–7
17.4%
68.1%
0.56
Jan 03 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 8–2
95.4%
1.5%
0.07
Jan 03 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 2–4
6.4%
86.0%
0.22
Dec 28 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 2–7
23.9%
58.7%
0.77
Dec 28 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 5–0
96.7%
0.8%
0.05
Dec 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–6
32.0%
53.3%
0.91
Dec 27 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ South Shore Kings 1–4
14.0%
69.3%
0.53
Dec 27 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 4–4
33.5%
47.9%
2.43
Dec 27 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–1
53.3%
32.0%
0.91
Dec 27 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ South Shore Kings 0–3
14.0%
69.3%
0.53
Dec 21 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Top Gun 7–1
67.0%
16.0%
0.58
Dec 21 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 2–1
89.3%
3.8%
0.16
Dec 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 3–0
82.4%
9.5%
0.28
Dec 21 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 9–1
96.6%
1.2%
0.05
Dec 20 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 1–8
11.5%
76.2%
0.39
Dec 20 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 3–3
64.5%
20.8%
2.76 UPSET
Dec 20 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–5
4.5%
89.7%
0.16
Dec 14 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 4–3
52.3%
28.7%
0.94
Dec 14 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 5–3
45.6%
33.3%
1.13
Dec 13 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ South Shore Kings 7–4
50.2%
28.9%
0.99
Dec 13 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 0–5
6.9%
85.4%
0.23
Dec 07 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–2
5.9%
87.0%
4.07 UPSET
Dec 07 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 7–4
95.6%
1.4%
0.07
Dec 07 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–6
5.9%
87.0%
0.20
Dec 07 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–4
27.6%
51.2%
0.97
Dec 07 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–5
3.0%
92.5%
4.45 UPSET
Dec 07 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 5–3
95.6%
1.4%
0.07
Dec 06 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 6–1
68.3%
12.2%
0.55
Dec 06 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–0
86.0%
7.4%
0.22
Dec 06 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–8
1.9%
95.5%
0.07
Dec 06 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 2–4
18.8%
67.2%
0.57
Dec 06 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–4
86.0%
7.4%
3.91 UPSET
Nov 30 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 4–3
77.5%
10.5%
0.37
Nov 30 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 1–3
8.3%
81.1%
0.30
Nov 30 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–6
10.5%
77.5%
0.37
Nov 30 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ South Shore Kings 3–0
10.1%
76.8%
3.31 UPSET
Nov 29 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–6
9.3%
83.2%
0.27
Nov 29 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Top Gun 3–4
26.1%
44.7%
1.16
Nov 29 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 2–2
83.2%
9.3%
3.74 UPSET
Nov 29 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Top Gun 1–4
26.1%
44.7%
1.16
Nov 23 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–8
1.2%
96.4%
0.05
Nov 23 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 1–3
45.8%
32.8%
1.61
Nov 23 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun 8–0
99.2%
0.2%
0.01
Nov 23 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun 11–1
99.2%
0.2%
0.01
Nov 23 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–7
1.6%
96.0%
0.06
Nov 22 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 3–2
16.7%
64.0%
2.59 UPSET
Nov 22 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ South Shore Kings 8–0
97.2%
1.2%
0.04
Nov 22 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–2
40.4%
45.9%
1.31
Nov 22 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ South Shore Kings 10–2
97.2%
1.2%
0.04
Nov 16 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–3
10.8%
78.9%
0.34
Nov 16 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 3–1
59.9%
26.3%
0.74
Nov 16 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–3
10.8%
78.9%
0.34
Nov 16 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 5–1
30.7%
42.1%
1.70
Nov 16 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–7
1.5%
95.2%
0.07
Nov 15 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 5–4
77.2%
9.9%
0.37
Nov 15 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 1–1
10.8%
76.6%
2.99 UPSET
Nov 15 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 3–1
63.9%
24.8%
0.65
Nov 15 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 2–3
55.9%
21.8%
2.19
Nov 09 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Minuteman Flames 0–4
3.8%
90.0%
0.15
Nov 08 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–8
3.0%
92.3%
0.12
Nov 02 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–4
13.3%
72.4%
0.47
Nov 02 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 0–9
0.0%
99.9%
0.00
Nov 02 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 2–4
29.8%
57.4%
0.80
Nov 02 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 1–4
0.0%
99.9%
0.00
Nov 01 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 8–1
95.0%
1.6%
0.07
Nov 01 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 5–0
78.4%
9.9%
0.35
Oct 25 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–6
3.0%
93.8%
0.09
Oct 19 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–7
5.8%
82.7%
0.27
Oct 19 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 4–6
31.0%
46.7%
1.10
Oct 19 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–6
12.8%
80.1%
0.32
Oct 19 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–5
27.7%
50.3%
0.99
Oct 18 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 6–1
88.0%
5.3%
0.18
Oct 18 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 4–1
87.4%
5.1%
0.19
Oct 18 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–1
62.4%
16.7%
0.68
Oct 12 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 1–3
12.0%
65.4%
0.61
Oct 12 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 4–1
64.5%
20.3%
0.63
Oct 11 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 4–3
71.7%
14.1%
0.48
Oct 11 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 6–3
16.2%
74.2%
2.62 UPSET
Oct 11 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–2
1.9%
94.7%
0.08
Oct 11 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 1–3
54.0%
24.4%
2.04
Oct 05 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–1
6.5%
85.7%
0.22
Oct 04 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 5–2
82.6%
10.4%
0.28
Oct 04 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 1–1
64.1%
17.4%
2.44
Sep 28 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 9–2
82.9%
8.3%
0.27
Sep 28 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 7–2
64.1%
21.1%
0.64
Sep 28 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 2–2
65.4%
12.2%
2.16
Sep 28 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 7–1
82.9%
8.3%
0.27
Sep 27 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–2 50/50 —
Sep 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 4–5 50/50 —
Sep 27 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 5–1
11.2%
76.7% ⚠
3.16 UPSET
Sep 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 4–10 50/50 —
Sep 27 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 2–0
38.0%
31.1% ⚠
1.39
Sep 21 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 2–3
0.9%
98.0% ⚠
0.03
Sep 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 7–3
90.0%
3.0% ⚠
0.15
Sep 21 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 4–0 50/50 —
Sep 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 7–1
90.0%
3.0% ⚠
0.15
Sep 20 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 5–8 50/50 —
Sep 20 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Top Gun 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 3–4 50/50 —
Sep 20 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–6 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 5–5 50/50 —
Sep 14 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 1–1 50/50 —
Sep 14 Minuteman Flames @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 0–8 50/50 —
Sep 14 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–1 50/50 —
Sep 14 Minuteman Flames @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 3–8 50/50 —
Sep 13 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 4–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–7 50/50 —
Sep 13 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 8–1 50/50 —
Sep 07 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 2–7 50/50 —
Sep 06 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 0–3 50/50 —