The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS
1 Islanders Hockey Club 36 28 4 4 184 67 60
2 Boston Jr Eagles 37 28 5 4 189 89 60
3 Minuteman Flames 36 21 12 3 121 110 45
4 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 38 18 15 5 130 101 41
5 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 14 13 0 1 100 26 27
6 South Shore Kings 37 11 22 4 88 133 26
7 Top Gun 36 8 22 6 70 149 22
8 Boston Jr Terriers 35 8 26 1 74 162 17
9 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 37 3 32 2 50 169 8

Game Log

Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Feb 22 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 0–4
9.9%
79.0%
0.34
Feb 22 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 4–3
91.1%
3.5%
0.14
Feb 22 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 4–2
53.4%
27.4%
0.90
Feb 21 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 1–3
24.3%
60.0%
0.74
Feb 21 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 2–5
4.4%
87.8%
0.19
Feb 21 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 2–2
24.3%
60.0%
2.68 UPSET
Feb 21 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 7–2
72.3%
14.5%
0.47
Feb 15 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–2
80.6%
10.1%
0.31
Feb 14 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 3–1
33.5%
49.1%
1.58
Feb 08 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–2
85.0%
7.0%
0.24
Feb 08 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–1
26.6%
58.9%
1.91
Feb 08 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 2–6
15.8%
70.3%
0.51
Feb 07 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 5–0
98.0%
0.5%
0.03
Feb 07 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–3
79.9%
10.3%
0.32
Feb 07 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–7
6.9%
85.7%
0.22
Feb 06 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 9–2
95.8%
1.8%
0.06
Feb 01 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 0–2
10.4%
80.2%
0.32
Feb 01 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 5–2
67.7%
15.4%
0.56
Feb 01 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 3–2
74.4%
13.4%
0.43
Jan 31 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 5–0
79.6%
10.5%
0.33
Jan 31 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Top Gun 3–5
22.0%
57.3%
0.80
Jan 31 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–4
22.7%
62.9%
2.80 UPSET
Jan 31 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 4–1
20.8%
64.6%
2.27
Jan 31 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–6
10.5%
79.6%
0.33
Jan 29 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–8
2.0%
94.2%
0.09
Jan 25 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ South Shore Kings 3–1
64.7%
19.8%
0.63
Jan 25 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Minuteman Flames 2–4
5.5%
85.8%
0.22
Jan 25 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–1
96.7%
1.3%
0.05
Jan 24 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 0–0
54.6%
27.3%
2.46
Jan 24 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 5–2
72.4%
14.6%
0.47
Jan 18 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 2–4
33.8%
48.6%
1.04
Jan 17 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Top Gun 4–1
75.6%
11.7%
0.40
Jan 11 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 2–0
87.6%
4.5%
0.19
Jan 11 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 2–3
62.8%
22.2%
2.17
Jan 11 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–11
0.8%
97.6%
0.04
Jan 11 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 4–0
91.6%
3.6%
0.13
Jan 10 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–3
68.1%
18.4%
2.44
Jan 10 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–7
1.2%
96.4%
0.05
Jan 10 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 8–2
93.4%
2.3%
0.10
Jan 10 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 5–2
42.9%
39.4%
1.22
Jan 04 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 6–1
60.0%
26.1%
0.74
Jan 04 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–1
12.8%
75.2%
3.06 UPSET
Jan 04 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 5–1
60.0%
26.1%
0.74
Jan 03 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–7
18.0%
68.2%
0.55
Jan 03 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 8–2
95.6%
1.5%
0.07
Jan 03 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 2–4
6.4%
86.3%
0.21
Dec 28 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 2–7
24.3%
59.3%
0.75
Dec 28 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 5–0
96.9%
0.8%
0.05
Dec 27 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ South Shore Kings 1–4
14.6%
69.9%
0.52
Dec 27 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 4–4
33.9%
48.4%
2.49
Dec 27 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–1
52.9%
32.5%
0.92
Dec 27 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ South Shore Kings 0–3
14.6%
69.9%
0.52
Dec 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–6
32.5%
52.9%
0.92
Dec 21 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 9–1
96.6%
1.2%
0.05
Dec 21 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Top Gun 7–1
67.3%
16.8%
0.57
Dec 21 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 2–1
89.6%
3.9%
0.16
Dec 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 3–0
82.5%
9.5%
0.28
Dec 20 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 1–8
11.7%
76.6%
0.38
Dec 20 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 3–3
64.4%
21.4%
2.81 UPSET
Dec 20 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–5
4.6%
89.8%
0.16
Dec 14 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 4–3
53.0%
29.3%
0.92
Dec 14 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 5–3
47.0%
33.7%
1.09
Dec 13 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ South Shore Kings 7–4
51.1%
29.7%
0.97
Dec 13 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 0–5
7.0%
85.6%
0.22
Dec 07 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–6
6.2%
86.9%
0.20
Dec 07 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–4
28.6%
52.1%
0.94
Dec 07 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–5
3.1%
92.5%
4.50 UPSET
Dec 07 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 5–3
95.8%
1.4%
0.06
Dec 07 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–2
6.2%
86.9%
4.02 UPSET
Dec 07 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 7–4
95.8%
1.4%
0.06
Dec 06 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 6–1
69.2%
13.1%
0.53
Dec 06 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–0
86.6%
7.0%
0.21
Dec 06 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 2–4
19.0%
67.4%
0.57
Dec 06 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–4
86.6%
7.0%
3.98 UPSET
Dec 06 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–8
1.9%
95.6%
0.07
Nov 30 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 4–3
77.8%
10.7%
0.36
Nov 30 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 1–3
8.6%
81.2%
0.30
Nov 30 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–6
10.7%
77.8%
0.36
Nov 30 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ South Shore Kings 3–0
10.4%
77.2%
3.26 UPSET
Nov 29 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–6
9.4%
83.2%
0.27
Nov 29 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Top Gun 3–4
27.6%
47.7%
1.07
Nov 29 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 2–2
83.2%
9.4%
3.75 UPSET
Nov 29 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Top Gun 1–4
27.6%
47.7%
1.07
Nov 23 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–8
1.2%
96.5%
0.05
Nov 23 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 1–3
46.8%
33.6%
1.57
Nov 23 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun 11–1
99.2%
0.2%
0.01
Nov 23 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–7
1.6%
95.9%
0.06
Nov 23 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun 8–0
99.2%
0.2%
0.01
Nov 22 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 3–2
17.5%
64.8%
2.51 UPSET
Nov 22 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ South Shore Kings 8–0
97.2%
1.2%
0.04
Nov 22 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–2
39.6%
46.9%
1.34
Nov 22 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ South Shore Kings 10–2
97.2%
1.2%
0.04
Nov 16 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 3–1
60.1%
26.4%
0.74
Nov 16 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 5–1
34.0%
43.1%
1.55
Nov 16 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–7
1.5%
95.4%
0.07
Nov 16 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–3
10.9%
79.3%
0.33
Nov 16 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–3
10.9%
79.3%
0.33
Nov 15 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 3–1
63.9%
24.8%
0.65
Nov 15 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 2–3
56.8%
22.8%
2.13
Nov 15 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 5–4
77.4%
10.4%
0.37
Nov 15 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 1–1
11.3%
76.7%
3.06 UPSET
Nov 09 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Minuteman Flames 0–4
3.8%
90.3%
0.15
Nov 08 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–8
3.1%
92.3%
0.12
Nov 02 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–4
13.8%
72.5%
0.46
Nov 02 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 0–9
0.0%
99.9%
0.00
Nov 02 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 2–4
29.8%
57.4%
0.80
Nov 02 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 1–4
0.0%
99.9%
0.00
Nov 01 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 8–1
95.0%
1.6%
0.07
Nov 01 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 5–0
78.5%
10.2%
0.35
Oct 25 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 0–6
3.0%
93.9%
0.09
Oct 19 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 4–6
31.8%
47.4%
1.08
Oct 19 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–6
12.8%
80.1%
0.32
Oct 19 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–7
6.5%
82.8%
0.27
Oct 19 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–5
28.5%
50.9%
0.97
Oct 18 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 6–1
87.9%
5.5%
0.19
Oct 18 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 4–1
87.6%
5.2%
0.19
Oct 18 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–1
63.2%
17.4%
0.66
Oct 12 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 1–3
12.6%
66.0%
0.60
Oct 12 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 4–1
64.3%
20.7%
0.64
Oct 11 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 4–3
71.7%
14.1%
0.48
Oct 11 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 6–3
16.2%
74.2%
2.62 UPSET
Oct 11 Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–2
1.9%
94.7%
0.08
Oct 11 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 1–3
54.0%
24.4%
2.04
Oct 05 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 0–1
6.5%
86.2%
0.21
Oct 04 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 1–1
65.9%
18.1%
2.64 UPSET
Oct 04 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 5–2
82.6%
10.4%
0.28
Sep 28 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 9–2
83.3%
8.4%
0.26
Sep 28 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 7–2
64.7%
21.4%
0.63
Sep 28 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 2–2
68.2%
13.7%
2.47
Sep 28 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 7–1
83.3%
8.4%
0.26
Sep 27 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 5–1
11.4%
77.6% ⚠
3.14 UPSET
Sep 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 4–10 50/50 —
Sep 27 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 2–0
41.2%
34.2% ⚠
1.28
Sep 27 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–2 50/50 —
Sep 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 4–5 50/50 —
Sep 21 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 2–3
0.9%
98.0% ⚠
0.03
Sep 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 7–3
91.0%
3.1% ⚠
0.14
Sep 21 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 4–0 50/50 —
Sep 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 7–1
91.0%
3.1% ⚠
0.14
Sep 20 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 5–8 50/50 —
Sep 20 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Top Gun 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 3–4 50/50 —
Sep 20 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–6 50/50 —
Sep 14 Minuteman Flames @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 3–8 50/50 —
Sep 14 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–1 50/50 —
Sep 14 Minuteman Flames @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 0–8 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 5–5 50/50 —
Sep 14 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 1–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 4–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–7 50/50 —
Sep 13 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi 8–1 50/50 —
Sep 07 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 2–7 50/50 —
Sep 06 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 0–3 50/50 —