The Sheet
What is Surprisal?
Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities.
0 bits = perfectly predicted.
3+ bits = major upset.
A result is flagged as an UPSET
when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | GF | GA | PTS | Champ % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islanders Hockey Club | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 184 | 67 | 61 | 78% |
| 2 | Boston Jr Eagles | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 189 | 89 | 61 | 13% |
| 3 | Minuteman Flames | 37 | 21 | 12 | 4 | 121 | 110 | 46 | 6% |
| 4 | Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite | 38 | 18 | 15 | 5 | 130 | 101 | 41 | 0% |
| 5 | Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers | 16 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 100 | 26 | 29 | — |
| 6 | South Shore Kings | 37 | 11 | 22 | 4 | 88 | 133 | 26 | 2% |
| 7 | Top Gun | 37 | 8 | 22 | 7 | 70 | 149 | 23 | 0% |
| 8 | Boston Jr Terriers | 37 | 8 | 26 | 3 | 74 | 162 | 19 | 0% |
| 9 | Providence Capitals - Andreozzi | 37 | 3 | 32 | 2 | 50 | 169 | 8 | 0% |
Projected Finish
How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.
| # | Team | Proj. Finish | Win Division | Proj. Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islanders Hockey Club | 1 | 95% | 62 (62–62) |
| 2 | Boston Jr Eagles | 2 | 5% | 62 (60–62) |
| 3 | Minuteman Flames | 3 | <1% | 45 (45–47) |
| 4 | Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite | 4 | <1% | 41 (41–41) |
| 5 | Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers | 5 | <1% | 31 (31–31) |
| 6 | South Shore Kings | 6 | <1% | 26 (26–26) |
| 7 | Top Gun | 7 | <1% | 22 (22–22) |
| 8 | Boston Jr Terriers | 8 | <1% | 17 (17–17) |
| 9 | Providence Capitals - Andreozzi | 9 | <1% | 8 (8–8) |
Game Log
| Date | Matchup | Score | Pre-game Probability | Surprisal | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi | 4–2 |
52%
|
0.94 | |
| Feb 22 | Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings | 4–3 |
88%
|
0.19 | |
| Feb 22 | Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite | 0–4 |
10%
|
0.35 | |
| Feb 21 | Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings | 1–3 |
27%
|
0.83 | |
| Feb 21 | Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite | 2–5 |
5%
|
0.19 | |
| Feb 21 | Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun | 7–2 |
67%
|
0.57 | |
| Feb 21 | Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings | 2–2 |
26%
|
2.60 | UPSET |
| Feb 15 | Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers | 3–2 |
72%
|
0.47 | |
| Feb 14 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun | 3–1 |
34%
|
1.57 | |
| Feb 08 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club | 3–1 |
27%
|
1.89 | |
| Feb 08 | Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames | 2–6 |
16%
|
0.52 | |
| Feb 08 | Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers | 6–2 |
77%
|
0.37 | |
| Feb 07 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi | 5–0 |
97%
|
0.05 | |
| Feb 07 | Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers | 6–3 |
71%
|
0.50 | |
| Feb 07 | South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles | 2–7 |
7%
|
0.22 | |
| Feb 07 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers | 9–2 |
91%
|
0.14 | |
| Feb 01 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames | 0–2 |
14%
|
0.43 | |
| Feb 01 | South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi | 5–2 |
64%
|
0.65 | |
| Feb 01 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite | 3–2 |
70%
|
0.51 | |
| Jan 31 | Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club | 2–6 |
10%
|
0.32 | |
| Jan 31 | Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Top Gun | 3–5 |
22%
|
0.76 | |
| Jan 31 | Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles | 4–4 |
21%
|
2.87 | UPSET |
| Jan 31 | Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings | 4–1 |
24%
|
2.04 | |
| Jan 31 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames | 5–0 |
74%
|
0.43 | |
| Jan 29 | Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club | 2–8 |
3%
|
0.11 | |
| Jan 25 | Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Minuteman Flames | 2–4 |
6%
|
0.24 | |
| Jan 25 | Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ South Shore Kings | 3–1 |
62%
|
0.70 | |
| Jan 25 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers | 6–1 |
92%
|
0.13 | |
| Jan 24 | South Shore Kings @ Top Gun | 0–0 |
49%
|
2.44 | |
| Jan 24 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite | 5–2 |
68%
|
0.56 | |
| Jan 18 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun | 2–4 |
35%
|
1.10 | |
| Jan 17 | Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Top Gun | 4–1 |
70%
|
0.50 | |
| Jan 12 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club | 3–11 |
2%
|
0.08 | |
| Jan 11 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun | 4–0 |
87%
|
0.20 | |
| Jan 11 | Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi | 2–0 |
84%
|
0.25 | |
| Jan 11 | Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings | 2–3 |
59%
|
2.00 | |
| Jan 10 | South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers | 2–3 |
55%
|
1.84 | |
| Jan 10 | Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Boston Jr Eagles | 0–7 |
2%
|
0.06 | |
| Jan 10 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun | 8–2 |
89%
|
0.17 | |
| Jan 10 | Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Minuteman Flames | 5–2 |
40%
|
1.32 | |
| Jan 04 | Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club | 1–1 |
14%
|
3.08 | UPSET |
| Jan 04 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames | 6–1 |
58%
|
0.78 | |
| Jan 04 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames | 5–1 |
55%
|
0.85 | |
| Jan 03 | Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club | 0–7 |
19%
|
0.59 | |
| Jan 03 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi | 8–2 |
93%
|
0.11 | |
| Jan 03 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite | 2–4 |
10%
|
0.33 | |
| Dec 28 | South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite | 2–7 |
23%
|
0.70 | |
| Dec 28 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi | 5–0 |
95%
|
0.08 | |
| Dec 27 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club | 1–6 |
32%
|
0.92 | |
| Dec 27 | Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ South Shore Kings | 1–4 |
16%
|
0.52 | |
| Dec 27 | Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Minuteman Flames | 4–4 |
31%
|
2.54 | UPSET |
| Dec 27 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles | 2–1 |
46%
|
1.10 | |
| Dec 27 | Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ South Shore Kings | 0–3 |
16%
|
0.54 | |
| Dec 21 | Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Top Gun | 7–1 |
62%
|
0.70 | |
| Dec 21 | Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi | 2–1 |
85%
|
0.23 | |
| Dec 21 | Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings | 3–0 |
79%
|
0.34 | |
| Dec 21 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers | 9–1 |
89%
|
0.16 | |
| Dec 20 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite | 1–8 |
17%
|
0.56 | |
| Dec 20 | Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles | 3–5 |
6%
|
0.19 | |
| Dec 20 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames | 3–3 |
56%
|
2.64 | UPSET |
| Dec 14 | Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite | 4–3 |
51%
|
0.97 | |
| Dec 14 | Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers | 5–3 |
39%
|
1.37 | |
| Dec 13 | Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ South Shore Kings | 7–4 |
48%
|
1.05 | |
| Dec 13 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames | 0–5 |
12%
|
0.39 | |
| Dec 07 | South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club | 3–2 |
6%
|
4.02 | UPSET |
| Dec 07 | Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite | 7–4 |
87%
|
0.20 | |
| Dec 07 | South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club | 0–6 |
7%
|
0.23 | |
| Dec 07 | Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Boston Jr Terriers | 3–4 |
23%
|
0.77 | |
| Dec 07 | Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles | 5–5 |
4%
|
4.16 | UPSET |
| Dec 07 | Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite | 5–3 |
88%
|
0.18 | |
| Dec 06 | Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi | 6–1 |
67%
|
0.58 | |
| Dec 06 | Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Islanders Hockey Club | 3–0 |
65%
|
0.61 | |
| Dec 06 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles | 2–8 |
6%
|
0.18 | |
| Dec 06 | South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames | 2–4 |
18%
|
0.55 | |
| Dec 06 | Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Islanders Hockey Club | 4–4 |
69%
|
3.04 | UPSET |
| Nov 30 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite | 4–3 |
72%
|
0.48 | |
| Nov 30 | Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames | 1–3 |
11%
|
0.37 | |
| Nov 30 | Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles | 4–6 |
12%
|
0.40 | |
| Nov 30 | Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ South Shore Kings | 3–0 |
12%
|
3.00 | UPSET |
| Nov 29 | South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles | 0–6 |
12%
|
0.33 | |
| Nov 29 | Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Top Gun | 3–4 |
24%
|
0.86 | |
| Nov 29 | Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings | 2–2 |
78%
|
3.47 | UPSET |
| Nov 29 | Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Top Gun | 1–4 |
27%
|
0.96 | |
| Nov 23 | Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Boston Jr Eagles | 1–8 |
2%
|
0.07 | |
| Nov 23 | South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite | 1–3 |
40%
|
1.29 | |
| Nov 23 | Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun | 8–0 |
96%
|
0.06 | |
| Nov 23 | Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun | 11–1 |
92%
|
0.12 | |
| Nov 23 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club | 2–7 |
5%
|
0.17 | |
| Nov 22 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite | 3–2 |
23%
|
2.10 | |
| Nov 22 | Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ South Shore Kings | 8–0 |
87%
|
0.20 | |
| Nov 22 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles | 6–2 |
39%
|
1.35 | |
| Nov 22 | Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ South Shore Kings | 10–2 |
80%
|
0.32 | |
| Nov 16 | Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles | 1–3 |
13%
|
0.40 | |
| Nov 16 | Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings | 3–1 |
49%
|
1.02 | |
| Nov 16 | Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles | 0–3 |
14%
|
0.41 | |
| Nov 16 | Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers | 5–1 |
32%
|
1.63 | |
| Nov 16 | Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Islanders Hockey Club | 1–7 |
2%
|
0.08 | |
| Nov 15 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite | 5–4 |
70%
|
0.51 | |
| Nov 15 | Top Gun @ South Shore Kings | 1–1 |
15%
|
2.91 | UPSET |
| Nov 15 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames | 3–1 |
56%
|
0.84 | |
| Nov 15 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi | 2–3 |
58%
|
2.13 | |
| Nov 09 | Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Minuteman Flames | 0–4 |
5%
|
0.19 | |
| Nov 08 | Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles | 1–8 |
7%
|
0.24 | |
| Nov 02 | Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club | 0–4 |
16%
|
0.51 | |
| Nov 02 | Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers | 0–9 |
2%
|
0.07 | |
| Nov 02 | South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames | 2–4 |
35%
|
0.97 | |
| Nov 02 | Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers | 1–4 |
1%
|
0.06 | |
| Nov 01 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi | 8–1 |
89%
|
0.16 | |
| Nov 01 | Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun | 5–0 |
62%
|
0.68 | |
| Oct 25 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles | 0–6 |
10%
|
0.30 | |
| Oct 19 | Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club | 2–7 |
11%
|
0.41 | |
| Oct 19 | Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Minuteman Flames | 4–6 |
35%
|
1.13 | |
| Oct 19 | South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles | 4–6 |
25%
|
0.64 | |
| Oct 19 | Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Boston Jr Terriers | 2–5 |
25%
|
0.85 | |
| Oct 18 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun | 6–1 |
66%
|
0.59 | |
| Oct 18 | Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi | 4–1 |
75%
|
0.41 | |
| Oct 18 | Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers | 3–1 |
51%
|
0.97 | |
| Oct 12 | Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite | 1–3 |
15%
|
0.57 | |
| Oct 12 | South Shore Kings @ Top Gun | 4–1 |
52%
|
0.95 | |
| Oct 11 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite | 4–3 |
56%
|
0.85 | |
| Oct 11 | South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames | 6–3 |
30%
|
1.74 | |
| Oct 11 | Providence Capitals - Andreozzi @ Islanders Hockey Club | 0–2 |
3%
|
0.12 | |
| Oct 11 | Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers | 1–3 |
48%
|
1.81 | |
| Oct 05 | Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club | 0–1 |
15%
|
0.49 | |
| Oct 04 | Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings | 5–2 |
64%
|
0.65 | |
| Oct 04 | Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi | 1–1 |
66%
|
2.64 | UPSET |
| Sep 28 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers | 9–2 |
68%
|
0.57 | |
| Sep 28 | South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi | 7–2 |
68%
|
0.57 | |
| Sep 28 | Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite | 2–2 |
48%
|
2.37 | |
| Sep 28 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers | 7–1 |
49%
|
1.03 | |
| Sep 27 | Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club | 4–2 |
36%
|
1.49 | |
| Sep 27 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers | 4–5 |
16%
|
0.43 | |
| Sep 27 | Top Gun @ South Shore Kings | 5–1 |
22%
|
2.21 | |
| Sep 27 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers | 4–10 |
28%
|
0.86 | |
| Sep 27 | Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi | 2–0 |
59%
|
0.76 | |
| Sep 21 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames | 2–3 |
27%
|
0.83 | |
| Sep 21 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi | 7–3 |
86%
|
0.22 | |
| Sep 21 | South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite | 4–0 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 21 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi | 7–1 |
76%
⚠Fewer than 20 games in training sample |
0.40 | |
| Sep 20 | South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club | 5–8 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 20 | Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Top Gun | 2–2 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 20 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi | 3–4 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 20 | Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles | 3–6 |
33%
⚠Fewer than 20 games in training sample |
0.91 | |
| Sep 14 | Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi | 1–1 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 14 | Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club | 5–5 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 14 | Minuteman Flames @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers | 0–8 |
38%
⚠Fewer than 20 games in training sample |
1.17 | |
| Sep 14 | South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers | 3–1 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 14 | Minuteman Flames @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers | 3–8 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 13 | Top Gun @ South Shore Kings | 4–3 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 13 | Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles | 3–7 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 13 | Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Andreozzi | 8–1 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 07 | Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames | 2–7 | 50/50 | — | |
| Sep 06 | Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite | 0–3 | 50/50 | — | |
| Aug 01 | Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun | 0–0 | 50/50 | — | |
| Aug 01 | Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles | 0–0 | 50/50 | — | |
| Aug 01 | Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Boston Jr Terriers | 0–0 | 50/50 | — | |
| Aug 01 | Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Boston Jr Terriers | 0–0 | 50/50 | — |