The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 IHC 13 Elite 10 8 1 1 51 21 17 —
2 Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney 7 6 0 1 41 8 13 —
3 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers 4 4 0 0 32 3 8 —
4 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 7 2 2 3 19 23 7 —
5 Minuteman Flames Duquette 6 3 3 0 14 24 6 —
6 South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson 7 2 3 2 19 26 6 —
7 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 5 2 2 1 16 15 5 —
8 Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble 7 1 3 3 23 32 5 —
9 Seacoast Spartans 11 1 8 2 18 55 4 —
10 TopGun 2013 Elite 8 0 7 1 14 40 1 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney 1 (1–2) 89% 64 (58–69)
2 IHC 13 Elite 2 (1–2) 11% 56 (50–61)
3 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 4 (3–7) <1% 37 (30–44)
4 Minuteman Flames Duquette 5 (3–8) <1% 33 (23–42)
5 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 5 (3–8) <1% 33 (23–44)
6 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers 6 (4–7) <1% 32 (28–35)
7 Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble 6 (4–8) <1% 32 (25–38)
8 South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson 7 (4–8) <1% 29 (23–36)
9 Seacoast Spartans 9 (8–10) <1% 17 (11–23)
10 TopGun 2013 Elite 10 (9–10) <1% 10 (5–17)
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 03 Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney @ Seacoast Spartans Upcoming 50/50 —
Sep 05 Seacoast Spartans @ IHC 13 Elite 2–8 50/50 —
Sep 12 Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames Duquette 1–2 50/50 —
Sep 12 TopGun 2013 Elite @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 1–5 50/50 —
Sep 12 South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney 2–9 50/50 —
Sep 13 South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson @ Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble 5–5 50/50 —
Sep 13 Minuteman Flames Duquette @ TopGun 2013 Elite 6–0 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney @ Seacoast Spartans 5–0 50/50 —
Sep 19 IHC 13 Elite @ TopGun 2013 Elite 6–2 50/50 —
Sep 19 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 @ Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble 4–4 50/50 —
Sep 20 TopGun 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 2–6 50/50 —
Sep 20 Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble @ IHC 13 Elite 1–5 50/50 —
Sep 26 IHC 13 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 26 Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 4–4 50/50 —
Sep 26 TopGun 2013 Elite @ Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble 3–7
18% 70%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.51
Sep 27 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ TopGun 2013 Elite 4–1 50/50 —
Sep 27 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney 1–4
21% 66%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.60
Oct 02 IHC 13 Elite @ Seacoast Spartans 7–3
80% 10%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.32
Oct 03 Seacoast Spartans @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers 1–8 50/50 —
Oct 03 Seacoast Spartans @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers 1–9 50/50 —
Oct 04 South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson @ IHC 13 Elite 2–5 50/50 —
Oct 10 Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney 0–7
12% 80%
0.33
Oct 10 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ Minuteman Flames Duquette 7–1 50/50 —
Oct 10 South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson @ Seacoast Spartans 2–2
60% 27%
2.89 UPSET
Oct 10 IHC 13 Elite @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite 5–1
47% 37%
1.08
Oct 10 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ Minuteman Flames Duquette 8–0
80% 10%
0.31
Oct 10 South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson @ Seacoast Spartans 4–1
54% 31%
0.90
Oct 11 South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson @ TopGun 2013 Elite 3–2
70% 18%
0.51
Oct 11 Minuteman Flames Duquette @ Seacoast Spartans 5–0
60% 24%
0.74
Oct 11 Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 3–3
25% 61%
2.88 UPSET
Oct 11 Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney @ IHC 13 Elite 4–1
52% 33%
0.93
Oct 17 Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney @ Minuteman Flames Duquette 8–0
79% 11%
0.35
Oct 17 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 @ IHC 13 Elite 0–6
22% 64%
0.64
Oct 17 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Seacoast Spartans 2–4
78% 11%
3.18 UPSET
Oct 17 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Seacoast Spartans Upcoming
67% 19%
—
Oct 18 South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 1–2
31% 53%
0.92
Oct 18 TopGun 2013 Elite @ Seacoast Spartans 3–3
30% 54%
2.63 UPSET
Oct 18 Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble @ IHC 13 Elite 3–5
10% 83%
0.28
Oct 25 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 @ Minuteman Flames Duquette Upcoming
47% 36%
—
Oct 31 Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble @ South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson Upcoming
46% 39%
—
Oct 31 Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney @ IHC 13 Elite Upcoming
62% 24%
—
Oct 31 Minuteman Flames Duquette @ TopGun 2013 Elite Upcoming
68% 19%
—
Nov 01 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney Upcoming
1% 97%
—
Nov 01 TopGun 2013 Elite @ Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble Upcoming
11% 80%
—
Nov 01 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 @ South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson Upcoming
48% 35%
—
Nov 01 Minuteman Flames Duquette @ IHC 13 Elite Upcoming
10% 80%
—
Nov 07 Seacoast Spartans @ TopGun 2013 Elite Upcoming
47% 36%
—
Nov 07 IHC 13 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 Upcoming
68% 18%
—
Nov 07 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney Upcoming
6% 88%
—
Nov 08 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 @ Minuteman Flames Duquette Upcoming
47% 36%
—
Nov 08 Seacoast Spartans @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite Upcoming
15% 72%
—
Nov 08 TopGun 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Nov 14 IHC 13 Elite @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming
19% 70%
—
Nov 14 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson Upcoming
49% 34%
—
Nov 14 IHC 13 Elite @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming
19% 70%
—
Nov 14 Minuteman Flames Duquette @ Seacoast Spartans Upcoming
59% 25%
—
Nov 15 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Duquette Upcoming
48% 35%
—
Nov 15 TopGun 2013 Elite @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Nov 15 Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble @ Seacoast Spartans Upcoming
66% 21%
—
Nov 15 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 @ South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson Upcoming
48% 35%
—
Nov 15 TopGun 2013 Elite @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Nov 21 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Nov 21 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Nov 21 IHC 13 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson Upcoming
78% 12%
—
Nov 21 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite Upcoming
38% 44%
—
Nov 22 Minuteman Flames Duquette @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite Upcoming
31% 52%
—
Nov 22 IHC 13 Elite @ Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble Upcoming
76% 14%
—
Nov 22 Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney @ South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson Upcoming
90% 4%
—
Nov 22 TopGun 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 Upcoming
11% 79%
—
Nov 28 Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble @ TopGun 2013 Elite Upcoming
76% 14%
—
Nov 28 Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite Upcoming
85% 7%
—
Nov 29 Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite Upcoming
35% 50%
—
Nov 29 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney Upcoming
6% 87%
—
Dec 05 South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming
2% 94%
—
Dec 05 TopGun 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Dec 05 Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble @ Minuteman Flames Duquette Upcoming
44% 40%
—
Dec 05 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ IHC 13 Elite Upcoming
15% 74%
—
Dec 05 South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming
2% 94%
—
Dec 06 Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble @ South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson Upcoming
46% 39%
—
Dec 06 Minuteman Flames Duquette @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney Upcoming
4% 91%
—
Dec 06 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ TopGun 2013 Elite Upcoming
76% 13%
—
Dec 06 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 @ IHC 13 Elite Upcoming
15% 73%
—
Dec 12 Seacoast Spartans @ IHC 13 Elite Upcoming
3% 92%
—
Dec 12 Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 Upcoming
84% 8%
—
Dec 12 Minuteman Flames Duquette @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite Upcoming
31% 52%
—
Dec 13 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble Upcoming
44% 40%
—
Dec 13 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 @ Seacoast Spartans Upcoming
66% 19%
—
Dec 13 Minuteman Flames Duquette @ TopGun 2013 Elite Upcoming
68% 19%
—
Dec 13 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 @ Seacoast Spartans Upcoming
66% 19%
—
Dec 13 IHC 13 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney Upcoming
20% 67%
—
Dec 19 TopGun 2013 Elite @ IHC 13 Elite Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Dec 19 Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney Upcoming
3% 93%
—
Dec 19 Minuteman Flames Duquette @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 Upcoming
31% 52%
—
Dec 19 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson Upcoming
49% 34%
—
Dec 20 Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney @ Minuteman Flames Duquette Upcoming
89% 5%
—
Dec 20 Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble @ IHC 13 Elite Upcoming
11% 81%
—
Dec 20 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite Upcoming
38% 44%
—
Dec 20 South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson @ TopGun 2013 Elite Upcoming
68% 19%
—
Dec 26 Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble @ Minuteman Flames Duquette Upcoming
44% 40%
—
Dec 26 IHC 13 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson Upcoming
78% 12%
—
Dec 26 TopGun 2013 Elite @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite Upcoming
10% 80%
—
Dec 27 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble Upcoming
44% 40%
—
Dec 27 IHC 13 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Duquette Upcoming
76% 13%
—
Dec 27 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 @ South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson Upcoming
48% 35%
—
Jan 02 IHC 13 Elite @ TopGun 2013 Elite Upcoming
94% 2%
—
Jan 02 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 Upcoming
39% 43%
—
Jan 02 Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney @ Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble Upcoming
90% 5%
—
Jan 02 Minuteman Flames Duquette @ South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson Upcoming
40% 43%
—
Jan 03 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ IHC 13 Elite Upcoming
15% 74%
—
Jan 03 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 @ TopGun 2013 Elite Upcoming
75% 14%
—
Jan 03 South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson @ Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble Upcoming
34% 51%
—
Jan 03 Minuteman Flames Duquette @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney Upcoming
4% 91%
—
Jan 09 Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 Upcoming
35% 49%
—
Jan 09 Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney @ South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson Upcoming
90% 4%
—
Jan 09 IHC 13 Elite @ Seacoast Spartans Upcoming
90% 5%
—
Jan 09 TopGun 2013 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Duquette Upcoming
16% 72%
—
Jan 10 TopGun 2013 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson Upcoming
16% 72%
—
Jan 10 Minuteman Flames Duquette @ Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble Upcoming
35% 50%
—
Jan 10 Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite Upcoming
85% 7%
—
Jan 10 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 Upcoming
16% 71%
—
Jan 16 South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson @ Minuteman Flames Duquette Upcoming
38% 45%
—
Jan 16 IHC 13 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney Upcoming
20% 67%
—
Jan 17 IHC 13 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Duquette Upcoming
76% 13%
—
Jan 23 TopGun 2013 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Duquette Upcoming
16% 72%
—
Jan 23 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming
5% 90%
—
Jan 23 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Mid Farifield Jr Rangers Upcoming
5% 90%
—
Jan 23 Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble @ South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson Upcoming
46% 39%
—
Jan 24 South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite Upcoming
30% 54%
—
Jan 24 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 @ TopGun 2013 Elite Upcoming
75% 14%
—
Jan 24 South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite Upcoming
30% 54%
—
Jan 24 Minuteman Flames Duquette @ Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble Upcoming
35% 50%
—
Jan 30 Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson Upcoming
22% 64%
—
Jan 30 Seacoast Spartans @ South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson Upcoming
22% 64%
—
Jan 31 Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney @ Seacoast Spartans Upcoming
96% 1%
—
Jan 31 South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 Upcoming
30% 53%
—
Feb 05 Minuteman Flames Duquette @ Seacoast Spartans Upcoming
59% 25%
—
Feb 06 Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 Upcoming
84% 8%
—
Feb 06 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Minuteman Flames Duquette Upcoming
48% 35%
—
Feb 06 TopGun 2013 Elite @ Seacoast Spartans Upcoming
32% 52%
—
Feb 06 IHC 13 Elite @ Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble Upcoming
76% 14%
—
Feb 07 Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble Upcoming
17% 71%
—
Feb 07 Seacoast Spartans @ Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble Upcoming
17% 71%
—
Feb 07 Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney @ TopGun 2013 Elite Upcoming
98% 1%
—
Feb 07 Minuteman Flames Duquette @ South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson Upcoming
40% 43%
—
Feb 07 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ IHC 13 Elite Upcoming
15% 74%
—
Feb 13 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 @ TopGun 2013 Elite Upcoming
75% 14%
—
Feb 13 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney Upcoming
40% 44%
—
Feb 13 Minuteman Flames Duquette @ IHC 13 Elite Upcoming
10% 80%
—
Feb 13 Seacoast Spartans @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite Upcoming
15% 72%
—
Feb 13 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney Upcoming
40% 44%
—
Feb 14 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 Upcoming
86% 6%
—
Feb 14 Mid Farifield Jr Rangers @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 Upcoming
86% 6%
—
Feb 14 TopGun 2013 Elite @ IHC 13 Elite Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Feb 14 Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite Upcoming
35% 50%
—
Feb 14 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney Upcoming
1% 97%
—
Feb 20 Minuteman Flames Duquette @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 Upcoming
31% 52%
—
Feb 20 South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson @ IHC 13 Elite Upcoming
9% 82%
—
Feb 20 Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble @ Seacoast Spartans Upcoming
66% 21%
—
Feb 20 Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney @ TopGun 2013 Elite Upcoming
98% 1%
—
Feb 21 Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 @ Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble Upcoming
44% 40%
—
Feb 21 Seacoast Spartans @ TopGun 2013 Elite Upcoming
47% 36%
—
Feb 21 IHC 13 Elite @ Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite Upcoming
69% 18%
—
Feb 21 South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney Upcoming
3% 93%
—
Feb 27 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney Upcoming
6% 88%
—
Feb 27 South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson @ Minuteman Flames Duquette Upcoming
38% 45%
—
Feb 27 Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble @ TopGun 2013 Elite Upcoming
76% 14%
—
Feb 27 Seacoast Spartans @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 Upcoming
16% 71%
—
Feb 28 Seacoast Spartans @ Minuteman Flames Duquette Upcoming
21% 64%
—
Feb 28 Bay State Breakers 2013 Elite @ Boston Jr. Terriers Elite - Bantam Minor 2013 Upcoming
39% 43%
—
Feb 28 Boston Jr. Eagles-Harney @ Providence Capitals 13o Elite NB - Noble Upcoming
90% 5%
—
Feb 28 TopGun 2013 Elite @ South Shore Kings 2013 Elite Jonasson Upcoming
16% 72%
—