The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Team Boston 2018 Elite 11 10 0 1 108 24 21 —
2 Team Merrimack 2018 Elite 10 9 0 1 96 26 19 —
3 South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough 9 5 4 0 57 36 10 —
4 Young Guns 2018 Elite 11 5 6 0 71 75 10 —
5 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 9 4 5 0 26 40 8 —
6 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite 11 2 9 0 48 94 4 —
7 Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin 8 1 7 0 23 61 2 —
8 Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier 7 1 6 0 16 89 2 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Team Boston 2018 Elite 1 (1–2) 78% 67 (62–70)
2 Team Merrimack 2018 Elite 2 (1–2) 22% 62 (58–67)
3 South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough 3 <1% 51 (45–56)
4 Young Guns 2018 Elite 4 (4–5) <1% 38 (32–43)
5 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 5 (4–5) <1% 33 (28–38)
6 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite 6 <1% 23 (18–28)
7 Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin 7 (7–8) <1% 9 (5–15)
8 Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier 8 (7–8) <1% 4 (2–9)
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Sep 05 Young Guns 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2018 Elite 2–6 50/50 —
Sep 12 Team Merrimack 2018 Elite @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite 11–1 50/50 —
Sep 12 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 3–11 50/50 —
Sep 12 South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough @ Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin 11–0 50/50 —
Sep 13 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Young Guns 2018 Elite 10–2 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 4–5 50/50 —
Sep 13 Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin @ Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier 11–1 50/50 —
Sep 19 Young Guns 2018 Elite @ Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin 11–2 50/50 —
Sep 19 South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite 15–4 50/50 —
Sep 19 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier 18–0 50/50 —
Sep 20 Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier @ Team Merrimack 2018 Elite 1–18 50/50 —
Sep 20 Young Guns 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough 3–12 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 1–17
0% 99%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.01
Sep 20 Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 3–5 50/50 —
Sep 26 Team Merrimack 2018 Elite @ Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin 15–2
96% 2%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.07
Sep 26 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 4–1
97% 1%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.04
Sep 26 Young Guns 2018 Elite @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite 8–5
82% 11%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.29
Sep 27 Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier @ Young Guns 2018 Elite 0–16
1% 99%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.02
Sep 27 South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 6–1
92% 4%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.13
Sep 27 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2018 Elite 3–11
0% 99%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.01
Oct 03 Team Merrimack 2018 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 7–3
89% 6%
0.17
Oct 03 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite 13–5
100% 0%
0.01
Oct 04 Young Guns 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2018 Elite 5–10
8% 86%
0.22
Oct 04 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough 4–3
44% 44%
1.18
Oct 04 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier 12–2
95% 3%
0.08
Oct 10 South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough @ Young Guns 2018 Elite 4–7
87% 7%
3.77 UPSET
Oct 10 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2018 Elite 3–3
53% 34%
3.00 UPSET
Oct 10 Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite 1–9
25% 65%
0.62
Oct 11 South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough @ Team Merrimack 2018 Elite 3–5
34% 54%
0.89
Oct 11 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 1–3
30% 58%
0.79
Oct 11 Young Guns 2018 Elite @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 3–10
4% 92%
0.12
Oct 17 Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier @ Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin 6–3
6% 89%
4.04 UPSET
Oct 17 Team Merrimack 2018 Elite @ Young Guns 2018 Elite 10–3
84% 10%
0.26
Oct 17 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite 8–3
99% 0%
0.01
Oct 17 South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 3–2
87% 7%
0.21
Oct 18 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin 3–1
81% 11%
0.31
Oct 18 Young Guns 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier 11–6
100% 0%
0.01
Oct 18 South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–10
21% 68%
0.55
Oct 31 Young Guns 2018 Elite @ Team Boston 2018 Elite Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Oct 31 South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough @ Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Oct 31 Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite Upcoming
3% 94%
—
Nov 01 Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin @ Team Boston 2018 Elite Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Nov 01 Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier @ South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Nov 07 South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough @ Young Guns 2018 Elite Upcoming
72% 19%
—
Nov 07 Team Merrimack 2018 Elite @ Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin Upcoming
100% 0%
—
Nov 07 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier Upcoming
100% 0%
—
Nov 07 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite Upcoming
48% 38%
—
Nov 08 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2018 Elite Upcoming
3% 92%
—
Nov 08 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Nov 08 Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin @ Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier Upcoming
63% 25%
—
Nov 14 Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin @ South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Nov 14 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2018 Elite Upcoming
54% 33%
—
Nov 15 Young Guns 2018 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite Upcoming
57% 29%
—
Nov 15 Team Merrimack 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier Upcoming
100% 0%
—
Nov 21 South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite Upcoming
79% 12%
—
Nov 21 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin Upcoming
100% 0%
—
Nov 21 Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Nov 22 Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier @ Team Boston 2018 Elite Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Nov 22 Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin @ Young Guns 2018 Elite Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Nov 28 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough Upcoming
3% 94%
—
Nov 28 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin Upcoming
78% 12%
—
Nov 28 Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier @ Team Merrimack 2018 Elite Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Nov 29 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite @ Young Guns 2018 Elite Upcoming
14% 78%
—
Nov 29 Team Merrimack 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough Upcoming
64% 25%
—
Nov 29 Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier @ Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin Upcoming
20% 70%
—
Dec 05 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough Upcoming
9% 83%
—
Dec 05 Team Merrimack 2018 Elite @ Young Guns 2018 Elite Upcoming
89% 6%
—
Dec 05 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier Upcoming
100% 0%
—
Dec 05 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite @ Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin Upcoming
80% 12%
—
Dec 06 South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough @ Team Boston 2018 Elite Upcoming
11% 81%
—
Dec 06 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite Upcoming
48% 38%
—
Dec 06 Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin @ Team Merrimack 2018 Elite Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Dec 12 Team Merrimack 2018 Elite @ Team Boston 2018 Elite Upcoming
27% 60%
—
Dec 12 Young Guns 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier Upcoming
99% 0%
—
Dec 12 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin Upcoming
78% 12%
—
Dec 13 Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin @ Young Guns 2018 Elite Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Dec 13 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite Upcoming
95% 2%
—
Dec 13 Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier @ Team Merrimack 2018 Elite Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Dec 19 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite @ Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin Upcoming
80% 12%
—
Dec 19 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough Upcoming
76% 15%
—
Dec 19 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Dec 19 Team Merrimack 2018 Elite @ Young Guns 2018 Elite Upcoming
89% 6%
—
Dec 20 Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin @ Team Merrimack 2018 Elite Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Dec 20 Young Guns 2018 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite Upcoming
57% 29%
—
Dec 20 South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough @ Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier Upcoming
100% 0%
—
Dec 20 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite @ Team Boston 2018 Elite Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Dec 26 Team Merrimack 2018 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite Upcoming
90% 5%
—
Dec 26 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough Upcoming
3% 94%
—
Dec 27 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough Upcoming
9% 83%
—
Dec 27 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier Upcoming
94% 3%
—
Jan 02 Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin @ Team Merrimack 2018 Elite Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Jan 02 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Jan 02 Young Guns 2018 Elite @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite Upcoming
72% 19%
—
Jan 03 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Young Guns 2018 Elite Upcoming
24% 63%
—
Jan 03 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite @ Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin Upcoming
80% 12%
—
Jan 03 Team Merrimack 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough Upcoming
64% 25%
—
Jan 09 Young Guns 2018 Elite @ Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin Upcoming
95% 3%
—
Jan 09 Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite Upcoming
3% 94%
—
Jan 09 South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite Upcoming
91% 5%
—
Jan 09 Team Merrimack 2018 Elite @ Team Boston 2018 Elite Upcoming
27% 60%
—
Jan 10 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin Upcoming
100% 0%
—
Jan 10 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2018 Elite Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Jan 10 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier Upcoming
92% 4%
—
Jan 10 Young Guns 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough Upcoming
14% 78%
—
Jan 17 Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier @ Team Boston 2018 Elite Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Jan 23 Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin @ Team Boston 2018 Elite Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Jan 23 South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough @ Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier Upcoming
100% 0%
—
Jan 23 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Young Guns 2018 Elite Upcoming
24% 63%
—
Jan 23 Team Merrimack 2018 Elite @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite Upcoming
98% 1%
—
Jan 24 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite @ Team Boston 2018 Elite Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Jan 24 Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier @ Young Guns 2018 Elite Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Jan 24 Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite Upcoming
9% 82%
—
Jan 24 Team Merrimack 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough Upcoming
64% 25%
—
Jan 30 Young Guns 2018 Elite @ Team Boston 2018 Elite Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Jan 30 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2018 Elite Upcoming
3% 92%
—
Jan 30 Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Jan 31 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite Upcoming
95% 2%
—
Jan 31 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite @ Young Guns 2018 Elite Upcoming
14% 78%
—
Jan 31 Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin @ South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Feb 06 South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough @ Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier Upcoming
100% 0%
—
Feb 06 Young Guns 2018 Elite @ Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin Upcoming
95% 3%
—
Feb 06 Team Merrimack 2018 Elite @ Team Boston 2018 Elite Upcoming
27% 60%
—
Feb 06 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite Upcoming
48% 38%
—
Feb 07 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2018 Elite Upcoming
1% 98%
—
Feb 07 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough Upcoming
76% 15%
—
Feb 07 Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier @ Young Guns 2018 Elite Upcoming
0% 99%
—
Feb 07 Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite Upcoming
9% 82%
—
Feb 13 South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough @ Young Guns 2018 Elite Upcoming
72% 19%
—
Feb 13 Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite Upcoming
9% 85%
—
Feb 14 South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough @ Team Merrimack 2018 Elite Upcoming
20% 70%
—
Feb 20 Team Merrimack 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier Upcoming
100% 0%
—
Feb 20 Young Guns 2018 Elite @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite Upcoming
72% 19%
—
Feb 21 Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin @ Team Boston 2018 Elite Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Feb 21 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Young Guns 2018 Elite Upcoming
24% 63%
—
Feb 21 Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier @ South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Feb 21 Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier @ South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough Upcoming
0% 100%
—
Feb 27 Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier @ Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin Upcoming
20% 70%
—
Feb 27 Young Guns 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2018 Elite Upcoming
4% 92%
—
Feb 27 South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough @ Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite Upcoming
91% 5%
—
Feb 27 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Team Boston 2018 Elite Upcoming
2% 96%
—
Feb 28 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Young Guns 2018 Elite Upcoming
95% 3%
—
Feb 28 Team Merrimack 2018 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite Upcoming
90% 5%
—
Feb 28 Boston Jr. Dogs Red - 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2018 Elite Pelletier Upcoming
94% 3%
—
Feb 28 Providence 2018 Elite - Cardin @ South Shore Knights 2018 Elite McCullough Upcoming
0% 99%
—