The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS
1 Team Boston 2018 Elite 33 32 0 1 167 23 65
2 Team Merrimack 35 20 12 3 107 63 43
3 Boston Jr Dogs 35 16 13 6 97 85 38
4 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 35 15 13 7 79 53 37
5 Minuteman Sparks 33 16 13 4 67 67 36
6 Young Guns 35 14 16 5 78 85 33
7 South Shore Knights 35 9 20 6 76 103 24
8 Providence 35 0 35 0 23 215 0

Game Log

Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Feb 22 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights 5–1
96.8%
0.9%
0.05
Feb 22 Boston Jr Dogs @ Young Guns 3–5
51.0%
30.4%
1.72
Feb 21 Young Guns @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–2
1.6%
94.4%
0.08
Feb 21 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs 3–3
23.2%
60.7%
2.64 UPSET
Feb 21 Providence @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 0–4
0.7%
96.9%
0.05
Feb 15 Minuteman Sparks @ Young Guns 5–3
38.5%
38.8%
1.38
Feb 15 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack 1–1
27.6%
55.3%
2.54 UPSET
Feb 14 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Merrimack 0–2
21.0%
60.4%
0.73
Feb 14 Providence @ Young Guns 1–5
1.7%
94.6%
0.08
Feb 08 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Young Guns 2–1
54.9%
23.6%
0.87
Feb 08 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–5
0.9%
96.8%
0.05
Feb 08 Boston Jr Dogs @ Minuteman Sparks 2–2
49.8%
30.3%
2.33
Feb 08 Providence @ Team Merrimack 0–6
0.2%
99.1%
0.01
Feb 07 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Boston Jr Dogs 0–3
51.0%
28.4%
1.82
Feb 07 Team Merrimack @ South Shore Knights 4–0
70.4%
16.0%
0.51
Feb 07 Providence @ Minuteman Sparks 0–3
2.1%
93.0%
0.11
Feb 01 Boston Jr Dogs @ Young Guns 5–2
46.4%
34.1%
1.11
Feb 01 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Providence 4–1
100.0%
0.0%
0.00
Feb 01 Minuteman Sparks @ South Shore Knights 1–2
47.7%
32.2%
1.64
Feb 01 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack 1–3
40.6%
36.9%
1.44
Jan 31 Providence @ Boston Jr Dogs 3–4
0.4%
98.5%
0.02
Jan 31 Team Merrimack @ Young Guns 4–1
57.2%
24.5%
0.81
Jan 25 Boston Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 1–1
26.1%
51.2%
2.14
Jan 25 Young Guns @ Providence 3–1
96.5%
0.8%
0.05
Jan 25 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack 1–0
14.6%
72.1%
2.77 UPSET
Jan 24 Team Merrimack @ Providence 7–1
99.4%
0.1%
0.01
Jan 24 Boston Jr Dogs @ South Shore Knights 2–1
60.7%
23.7%
0.72
Jan 24 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 2–4
55.9%
18.2%
2.46
Jan 24 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Young Guns 6–1
91.7%
2.1%
0.12
Jan 11 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2–1
40.9%
34.7%
1.29
Jan 11 Providence @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–18
0.0%
100.0%
0.00
Jan 11 Young Guns @ South Shore Knights 1–1
54.2%
27.2%
2.43
Jan 11 Boston Jr Dogs @ Minuteman Sparks 0–1
50.6%
28.7%
1.80
Jan 10 Team Merrimack @ Young Guns 2–2
57.4%
23.9%
2.41
Jan 10 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Boston Jr Dogs 7–0
90.4%
3.1%
0.15
Jan 10 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Providence 8–0
97.1%
0.4%
0.04
Jan 10 South Shore Knights @ Minuteman Sparks 2–2
32.9%
46.5%
2.28
Jan 04 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 3–0
51.9%
21.5%
0.95
Jan 04 Boston Jr Dogs @ Young Guns 1–5
53.7%
27.0%
1.89
Jan 04 South Shore Knights @ Providence 6–0
94.7%
1.7%
0.08
Jan 04 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack 4–1
83.9%
5.8%
0.25
Jan 03 Team Merrimack @ Minuteman Sparks 5–0
54.5%
24.6%
0.87
Jan 03 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–5
0.7%
97.3%
0.04
Jan 03 Boston Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 0–1
34.2%
42.7%
1.23
Jan 03 Young Guns @ Providence 3–2
95.9%
0.9%
0.06
Dec 28 Boston Jr Dogs @ Providence 5–1
99.6%
0.1%
0.01
Dec 28 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2–0
34.5%
41.9%
1.53
Dec 28 Boston Jr Dogs @ Providence 4–3
99.6%
0.1%
0.01
Dec 27 Team Merrimack @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 2–1
40.8%
35.8%
1.29
Dec 21 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–4
5.9%
84.8%
0.24
Dec 21 Team Merrimack @ Minuteman Sparks 1–2
58.6%
21.8%
2.20
Dec 21 South Shore Knights @ Providence 5–1
97.2%
0.7%
0.04
Dec 21 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Young Guns 4–0
43.7%
30.1%
1.19
Dec 20 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs 1–3
28.2%
52.9%
0.92
Dec 20 Team Merrimack @ Providence 6–0
99.7%
0.1%
0.01
Dec 20 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights 1–1
63.6%
18.6%
2.48
Dec 20 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 4–1
88.2%
3.0%
0.18
Dec 14 South Shore Knights @ Minuteman Sparks 2–3
29.5%
50.1%
1.00
Dec 14 Providence @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 0–6
0.4%
97.3%
0.04
Dec 14 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Young Guns 3–1
88.5%
3.3%
0.18
Dec 13 Providence @ Minuteman Sparks 1–4
0.7%
95.7%
0.06
Dec 13 Young Guns @ South Shore Knights 2–0
55.6%
27.0%
0.85
Dec 13 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–4
6.6%
78.5%
0.35
Dec 07 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack 3–2
84.1%
5.9%
0.25
Dec 07 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 1–1
17.5%
66.0%
2.60 UPSET
Dec 07 Minuteman Sparks @ Young Guns 2–3
36.3%
38.1%
1.39
Dec 07 Providence @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–6
0.0%
99.8%
0.00
Dec 06 Young Guns @ Providence 4–0
98.1%
0.3%
0.03
Dec 06 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights 5–3
98.9%
0.2%
0.02
Dec 06 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights 3–1
98.9%
0.2%
0.02
Dec 06 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack 0–2
46.7%
36.6%
1.45
Dec 06 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 1–1
48.1%
25.0%
1.90
Nov 30 Young Guns @ Minuteman Sparks 3–1
35.2%
39.2%
1.51
Nov 30 Providence @ Team Merrimack 1–8
0.0%
99.7%
0.00
Nov 29 Young Guns @ Team Merrimack 3–1
19.9%
63.7%
2.33
Nov 29 Minuteman Sparks @ South Shore Knights 3–2
58.8%
22.5%
0.77
Nov 23 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Providence 6–0
98.4%
0.2%
0.02
Nov 23 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 1–4
2.4%
88.5%
0.18
Nov 22 Minuteman Sparks @ Providence 3–1
97.5%
0.3%
0.04
Nov 22 Team Merrimack @ Boston Jr Dogs 6–1
29.1%
54.9%
1.78
Nov 22 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 1–1
2.9%
87.4%
3.37 UPSET
Nov 16 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 0–0
28.1%
54.5%
2.52 UPSET
Nov 16 Minuteman Sparks @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–1
20.2%
64.8%
2.30
Nov 15 South Shore Knights @ Minuteman Sparks 2–3
23.5%
60.6%
0.72
Nov 15 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–3
26.2%
57.7%
0.79
Nov 15 Team Merrimack @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–2
2.7%
93.1%
0.10
Nov 15 Providence @ Young Guns 0–5
0.5%
98.2%
0.03
Nov 09 Providence @ South Shore Knights 2–6
0.4%
98.5%
0.02
Nov 09 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 3–1
90.0%
3.7%
0.15
Nov 09 Team Merrimack @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–2
23.5%
63.4%
2.94 UPSET
Nov 08 Minuteman Sparks @ Boston Jr Dogs 1–4
24.7%
58.9%
0.76
Nov 08 Providence @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–10
0.0%
100.0%
0.00
Nov 08 Team Merrimack @ South Shore Knights 3–5
83.2%
8.8%
3.50 UPSET
Nov 02 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights 4–0
67.5%
18.7%
0.57
Nov 02 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 2–4
3.8%
90.5%
0.14
Nov 01 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–4
4.8%
89.5%
0.16
Nov 01 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Young Guns 1–0
47.5%
32.4%
1.07
Oct 26 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Merrimack 0–2
34.7%
44.0%
1.18
Oct 26 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 2–0
94.9%
1.1%
0.08
Oct 19 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack 3–4
7.4%
85.1%
0.23
Oct 19 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Providence 6–0
100.0%
0.0%
0.00
Oct 19 Boston Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 1–1
75.7%
13.6%
3.22 UPSET
Oct 18 Team Merrimack @ Boston Jr Dogs 0–4
43.4%
42.4%
1.24
Oct 18 Providence @ Minuteman Sparks 0–6
0.3%
97.7%
0.03
Oct 18 Young Guns @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–4
0.7%
97.5%
0.04
Oct 12 Minuteman Sparks @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 3–1
37.4%
40.2%
1.42
Oct 12 Providence @ Team Merrimack 0–10
0.0%
99.9%
0.00
Oct 11 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Boston Jr Dogs 4–1
97.0%
1.0%
0.04
Oct 11 South Shore Knights @ Young Guns 4–4
18.6%
66.0%
2.70 UPSET
Oct 11 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Merrimack 1–2
22.3%
60.6%
0.72
Oct 05 Team Merrimack @ Young Guns 2–1
70.7%
17.7%
0.50
Oct 05 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 6–1
96.7%
0.8%
0.05
Oct 05 Boston Jr Dogs @ South Shore Knights 1–3
96.4%
1.5%
6.02 UPSET
Oct 04 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 3–1
24.8%
59.5%
2.01
Oct 04 Providence @ South Shore Knights 0–6
3.4%
89.1%
0.17
Oct 04 Team Merrimack @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 1–9
4.0%
89.2%
0.16
Sep 28 Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Providence 9–0
96.7%
0.8%
0.05
Sep 28 Minuteman Sparks @ Young Guns 2–1
44.8%
33.9%
1.16
Sep 27 Providence @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 0–8
0.0%
100.0% ⚠
0.00
Sep 27 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–6
19.1%
70.2% ⚠
0.51
Sep 27 Minuteman Sparks @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 2–1
31.1%
47.6% ⚠
1.69
Sep 27 Team Merrimack @ South Shore Knights 8–1
92.0%
3.0% ⚠
0.12
Sep 21 Young Guns @ South Shore Knights 3–1
78.8%
11.1% ⚠
0.34
Sep 21 Team Merrimack @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 4–2 50/50 —
Sep 20 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 1–5 50/50 —
Sep 20 Young Guns @ Team Merrimack 3–4 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 1–7
32.8%
50.2% ⚠
0.99
Sep 14 Young Guns @ Minuteman Sparks 2–2 50/50 —
Sep 14 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite 2–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 South Shore Knights @ Providence 3–0 50/50 —
Sep 13 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack 4–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 Minuteman Sparks @ Boston Jr Dogs 1–2 50/50 —
Sep 07 Boston Jr Dogs @ Providence 13–1 50/50 —
Sep 07 Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 5–0 50/50 —
Sep 07 South Shore Knights @ Young Guns 3–4 50/50 —
Sep 06 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–8 50/50 —
Sep 06 Young Guns @ Team Boston 2018 Elite 1–6 50/50 —
Sep 06 Minuteman Sparks @ Providence 5–1 50/50 —