The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	GF	GA	PTS	Champ %
1	Team Boston 2018 Elite	35	32	0	3	159	23	67	96%
2	Team Merrimack	35	20	12	3	107	63	43	0%
3	Boston Jr Dogs	35	16	13	6	95	85	38	0%
4	Minuteman Sparks	35	16	13	6	67	67	38	4%
5	Bay State Waves 2018 Elite	35	15	13	7	79	53	37	0%
6	Young Guns	35	14	16	5	78	85	33	0%
7	South Shore Knights	35	9	20	6	76	103	24	0%
8	Providence	35	0	35	0	23	205	0	0%

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

#	Team	Proj. Finish	Win Division	Proj. Points
1	Team Boston 2018 Elite	1	100%	69 (68–69)
2	Team Merrimack	2	<1%	43 (43–43)
3	Boston Jr Dogs	3	<1%	38 (38–38)
4	Bay State Waves 2018 Elite	4 (4–5)	<1%	37 (37–37)
5	Minuteman Sparks	5 (4–5)	<1%	36 (36–37)
6	Young Guns	6	<1%	33 (33–33)
7	South Shore Knights	7	<1%	24 (24–24)
8	Providence	8	<1%	0 (0–0)

Game Log

Date	Matchup	Score	Pre-game Probability	Surprisal	Flag
Feb 22	Team Boston 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights	5–1	92% 2%	0.11
Feb 22	Boston Jr Dogs @ Young Guns	3–5	47% 34%	1.58
Feb 21	South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs	3–3	23% 60%	2.58	UPSET
Feb 21	Providence @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite	0–4	1% 96%	0.06
Feb 21	Young Guns @ Team Boston 2018 Elite	0–2	3% 91%	0.14
Feb 15	Minuteman Sparks @ Young Guns	5–3	38% 37%	1.38
Feb 15	Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack	1–1	26% 57%	2.51	UPSET
Feb 14	Minuteman Sparks @ Team Merrimack	0–2	23% 56%	0.83
Feb 14	Providence @ Young Guns	1–5	2% 93%	0.11
Feb 08	Boston Jr Dogs @ Minuteman Sparks	2–2	41% 36%	2.15
Feb 08	Providence @ Team Merrimack	0–6	0% 98%	0.02
Feb 08	Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Young Guns	2–1	51% 26%	0.97
Feb 08	South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 2018 Elite	0–5	2% 94%	0.09
Feb 07	Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Boston Jr Dogs	0–3	48% 30%	1.72
Feb 07	Team Merrimack @ South Shore Knights	4–0	64% 20%	0.63
Feb 07	Providence @ Minuteman Sparks	0–3	3% 91%	0.13
Feb 01	Boston Jr Dogs @ Young Guns	5–2	42% 38%	1.26
Feb 01	Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Providence	4–1	100% 0%	0.00
Feb 01	Minuteman Sparks @ South Shore Knights	1–2	46% 32%	1.67
Feb 01	Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack	1–3	38% 39%	1.36
Jan 31	Providence @ Boston Jr Dogs	3–4	1% 97%	0.05
Jan 31	Team Merrimack @ Young Guns	4–1	52% 28%	0.93
Jan 25	Boston Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite	1–1	26% 53%	2.25
Jan 25	Young Guns @ Providence	3–1	94% 2%	0.10
Jan 25	South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack	1–0	15% 71%	2.71	UPSET
Jan 24	Team Merrimack @ Providence	7–1	98% 0%	0.03
Jan 24	Boston Jr Dogs @ South Shore Knights	2–1	54% 29%	0.89
Jan 24	Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks	2–4	49% 24%	2.07
Jan 24	Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Young Guns	6–1	85% 5%	0.24
Jan 11	Providence @ Team Boston 2018 Elite	0–10	0% 100%	0.00
Jan 11	Young Guns @ South Shore Knights	1–1	50% 30%	2.39
Jan 11	Boston Jr Dogs @ Minuteman Sparks	0–1	42% 36%	1.48
Jan 11	Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack	2–1	38% 38%	1.39
Jan 10	Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Boston Jr Dogs	7–0	84% 6%	0.25
Jan 10	Team Merrimack @ Young Guns	2–2	52% 28%	2.35
Jan 10	Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Providence	8–0	95% 1%	0.08
Jan 10	South Shore Knights @ Minuteman Sparks	2–2	28% 51%	2.26
Jan 04	Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack	4–1	76% 11%	0.40
Jan 04	Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks	3–0	44% 28%	1.18
Jan 04	Boston Jr Dogs @ Young Guns	1–5	48% 32%	1.65
Jan 04	South Shore Knights @ Providence	6–0	90% 4%	0.15
Jan 03	Young Guns @ Providence	3–2	92% 2%	0.11
Jan 03	Boston Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite	0–1	33% 44%	1.18
Jan 03	Team Merrimack @ Minuteman Sparks	5–0	46% 31%	1.11
Jan 03	South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 2018 Elite	0–5	2% 95%	0.08
Dec 28	Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack	2–0	33% 45%	1.61
Dec 28	Boston Jr Dogs @ Providence	4–3	98% 1%	0.03
Dec 28	Boston Jr Dogs @ Providence	5–1	98% 0%	0.03
Dec 27	Team Merrimack @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite	2–1	40% 38%	1.33
Dec 21	Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 2018 Elite	0–4	8% 81%	0.30
Dec 21	Team Merrimack @ Minuteman Sparks	1–2	49% 29%	1.79
Dec 21	South Shore Knights @ Providence	5–1	92% 3%	0.12
Dec 21	Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Young Guns	4–0	41% 34%	1.30
Dec 20	Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs	1–3	30% 51%	0.96
Dec 20	Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights	1–1	58% 23%	2.40
Dec 20	Team Merrimack @ Providence	6–0	98% 0%	0.02
Dec 20	Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks	4–1	77% 8%	0.38
Dec 14	Providence @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite	0–6	1% 95%	0.07
Dec 14	Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Young Guns	3–1	81% 7%	0.31
Dec 14	South Shore Knights @ Minuteman Sparks	2–3	24% 56%	0.84
Dec 13	Providence @ Minuteman Sparks	1–4	2% 93%	0.10
Dec 13	Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Team Boston 2018 Elite	0–4	9% 76%	0.40
Dec 13	Young Guns @ South Shore Knights	2–0	52% 30%	0.93
Dec 07	South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite	1–1	19% 64%	2.57	UPSET
Dec 07	Minuteman Sparks @ Young Guns	2–3	38% 36%	1.46
Dec 07	Providence @ Boston Jr Dogs	2–6	0% 99%	0.02
Dec 07	Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack	3–2	75% 11%	0.41
Dec 06	Young Guns @ Providence	4–0	94% 2%	0.08
Dec 06	Team Boston 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights	5–3	94% 2%	0.09
Dec 06	Team Boston 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights	3–1	95% 2%	0.07
Dec 06	Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack	0–2	40% 42%	1.24
Dec 06	Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks	1–1	39% 33%	1.85
Nov 30	Young Guns @ Minuteman Sparks	3–1	29% 45%	1.77
Nov 30	Providence @ Team Merrimack	1–8	0% 99%	0.02
Nov 29	Young Guns @ Team Merrimack	3–1	21% 62%	2.24
Nov 29	Minuteman Sparks @ South Shore Knights	3–2	57% 23%	0.81
Nov 23	Minuteman Sparks @ Team Boston 2018 Elite	1–4	7% 77%	0.38
Nov 23	Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Providence	6–0	94% 2%	0.08
Nov 22	Minuteman Sparks @ Providence	3–1	93% 2%	0.10
Nov 22	Team Merrimack @ Boston Jr Dogs	6–1	30% 53%	1.74
Nov 22	Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Team Boston 2018 Elite	1–1	6% 82%	3.05	UPSET
Nov 16	Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite	0–0	27% 52%	2.25
Nov 16	Minuteman Sparks @ Boston Jr Dogs	2–1	26% 52%	1.94
Nov 15	South Shore Knights @ Minuteman Sparks	2–3	19% 62%	0.68
Nov 15	Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Boston Jr Dogs	2–3	26% 55%	0.85
Nov 15	Team Merrimack @ Team Boston 2018 Elite	0–2	6% 86%	0.22
Nov 15	Providence @ Young Guns	0–5	2% 93%	0.10
Nov 09	Providence @ South Shore Knights	2–6	3% 92%	0.13
Nov 09	Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite	3–1	80% 8%	0.33
Nov 09	Team Merrimack @ Boston Jr Dogs	2–2	26% 58%	2.74	UPSET
Nov 08	Minuteman Sparks @ Boston Jr Dogs	1–4	30% 47%	1.09
Nov 08	Providence @ Team Boston 2018 Elite	0–10	0% 100%	0.00
Nov 08	Team Merrimack @ South Shore Knights	3–5	74% 14%	2.79	UPSET
Nov 02	Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 2018 Elite	2–4	8% 80%	0.32
Nov 02	Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ South Shore Knights	4–0	58% 24%	0.78
Nov 01	South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs	2–4	9% 82%	0.29
Nov 01	Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Young Guns	1–0	44% 36%	1.20
Oct 26	Minuteman Sparks @ Team Merrimack	0–2	40% 38%	1.39
Oct 26	Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite	2–0	85% 5%	0.23
Oct 19	Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Providence	6–0	100% 0%	0.00
Oct 19	Boston Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite	1–1	62% 23%	2.74	UPSET
Oct 19	South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack	3–4	12% 76%	0.39
Oct 18	Team Merrimack @ Boston Jr Dogs	0–4	42% 43%	1.23
Oct 18	Providence @ Minuteman Sparks	0–6	2% 93%	0.10
Oct 18	Young Guns @ Team Boston 2018 Elite	0–4	3% 91%	0.14
Oct 12	Minuteman Sparks @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite	3–1	40% 35%	1.31
Oct 12	Providence @ Team Merrimack	0–10	1% 98%	0.03
Oct 11	Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Boston Jr Dogs	4–1	80% 10%	0.31
Oct 11	South Shore Knights @ Young Guns	4–4	24% 59%	2.54	UPSET
Oct 11	Minuteman Sparks @ Team Merrimack	1–2	36% 42%	1.25
Oct 05	Boston Jr Dogs @ South Shore Knights	1–3	87% 7%	3.93	UPSET
Oct 05	Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite	6–1	82% 8%	0.29
Oct 05	Team Merrimack @ Young Guns	2–1	53% 32%	0.92
Oct 04	Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite	3–1	24% 60%	2.09
Oct 04	Providence @ South Shore Knights	0–6	15% 72%	0.48
Oct 04	Team Merrimack @ Team Boston 2018 Elite	1–9	15% 72%	0.48
Sep 28	Bay State Waves 2018 Elite @ Providence	9–0	83% 8%	0.27
Sep 28	Minuteman Sparks @ Young Guns	2–1	49% 29%	1.04
Sep 27	Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs	2–6	18% 70%	0.52
Sep 27	Minuteman Sparks @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite	2–1	39% 37%	1.35
Sep 27	Providence @ Team Boston 2018 Elite	0–8	0% 98% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	0.02
Sep 27	Team Merrimack @ South Shore Knights	8–1	66% 19% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	0.60
Sep 21	Young Guns @ South Shore Knights	3–1	52% 31% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	0.93
Sep 21	Team Merrimack @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite	4–2	50/50	—
Sep 20	South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite	1–5	50/50	—
Sep 20	Young Guns @ Team Merrimack	3–4	50/50	—
Sep 14	Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 2018 Elite	1–7	40% 42% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	1.25
Sep 14	South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2018 Elite	2–3	50/50	—
Sep 14	Young Guns @ Minuteman Sparks	2–2	50/50	—
Sep 13	Minuteman Sparks @ Boston Jr Dogs	1–2	50/50	—
Sep 13	South Shore Knights @ Providence	3–0	50/50	—
Sep 13	Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Team Merrimack	4–1	50/50	—
Sep 07	Boston Jr Dogs @ Providence	11–1	50/50	—
Sep 07	Team Boston 2018 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks	5–0	36% 30% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	1.46
Sep 07	South Shore Knights @ Young Guns	3–4	50/50	—
Sep 06	Young Guns @ Team Boston 2018 Elite	1–6	50/50	—
Sep 06	Minuteman Sparks @ Providence	5–1	50/50	—
Sep 06	South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs	2–8	50/50	—
Aug 01	Minuteman Sparks @ Team Boston 2018 Elite	0–0	50/50	—
Aug 01	Minuteman Sparks @ Team Boston 2018 Elite	0–0	50/50	—