The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 35 28 7 0 219 100 56 65%
2 Minuteman Flames - Nute 35 27 8 0 260 151 54 0%
3 Boch Blazers 35 24 9 2 227 130 50 0%
4 NorthStars - Tuccio 36 23 10 3 169 89 49 0%
5 IHC West - Carchia 35 22 13 0 204 132 44 35%
6 Spartans - Flood 36 17 17 2 160 153 36 0%
7 Shamrocks - Tavares 34 17 15 2 134 115 36 0%
8 Top Gun - Lemire 35 16 16 3 147 134 35
9 Northeast Generals - Miller 27 14 11 2 112 79 30 0%
10 Northern Cyclones - Abbis 36 3 29 4 57 238 10
11 Jr Mounties 2016 35 4 30 1 96 273 9
12 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 35 2 32 1 71 262 5

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 1 100% 56 (56–56)
2 Minuteman Flames - Nute 2 <1% 54 (54–54)
3 NorthStars - Tuccio 3 <1% 50 (50–50)
4 Boch Blazers 4 <1% 50 (50–50)
5 IHC West - Carchia 5 <1% 44 (44–44)
6 Spartans - Flood 6 <1% 37 (37–37)
7 Shamrocks - Tavares 7 <1% 36 (36–36)
8 Top Gun - Lemire 8 <1% 35 (35–35)
9 Northeast Generals - Miller 9 <1% 30 (30–30)
10 Jr Mounties 2016 10 <1% 9 (9–9)
11 Northern Cyclones - Abbis 11 <1% 9 (9–9)
12 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 12 <1% 4 (4–4)

Game Log

Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Feb 22 Northeast Generals - Miller @ Boch Blazers 0–5
34% 52%
0.96
Feb 22 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 2–10
0% 99%
0.01
Feb 22 IHC West - Carchia @ Spartans - Flood 6–1
55% 32%
0.86
Feb 22 NorthStars - Tuccio @ Northeast Generals - Miller 6–2
45% 36%
1.15
Feb 22 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 1–11
0% 99%
0.01
Feb 22 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Top Gun - Lemire 1–4
3% 93%
0.11
Feb 22 Shamrocks - Tavares @ Jr Mounties 2016 10–0
86% 7%
0.21
Feb 21 Northeast Generals - Miller @ Shamrocks - Tavares 1–2
54% 30%
1.76
Feb 21 NorthStars - Tuccio @ Spartans - Flood 5–5
63% 22%
2.80 UPSET
Feb 21 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ IHC West - Carchia 4–8
54% 35%
1.51
Feb 21 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Boch Blazers 6–3
51% 36%
0.98
Feb 21 Top Gun - Lemire @ Jr Mounties 2016 10–3
86% 8%
0.22
Feb 21 Northeast Generals - Miller @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 7–0
95% 2%
0.08
Feb 21 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Shamrocks - Tavares 0–6
4% 91%
0.14
Feb 20 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 2–12
0% 99%
0.02
Feb 15 Northeast Generals - Miller @ Jr Mounties 2016 10–2
92% 4%
0.13
Feb 15 Shamrocks - Tavares @ NorthStars - Tuccio 1–5
21% 64%
0.65
Feb 15 IHC West - Carchia @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 11–1
17% 73%
2.58 UPSET
Feb 15 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Spartans - Flood 1–8
3% 92%
0.11
Feb 15 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ Top Gun - Lemire 10–4
65% 24%
0.63
Feb 15 Jr Mounties 2016 @ Boch Blazers 2–12
1% 98%
0.03
Feb 14 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ NorthStars - Tuccio 8–2
32% 55%
1.67
Feb 14 Northeast Generals - Miller @ Top Gun - Lemire 6–6
52% 31%
2.58 UPSET
Feb 14 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Boch Blazers 0–3
0% 99%
0.02
Feb 14 Shamrocks - Tavares @ IHC West - Carchia 3–6
34% 52%
0.95
Feb 14 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Northeast Generals - Miller 3–1
56% 29%
0.84
Feb 14 Spartans - Flood @ Jr Mounties 2016 6–5
87% 7%
0.20
Feb 12 Top Gun - Lemire @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 9–1
88% 5%
0.18
Feb 08 NorthStars - Tuccio @ IHC West - Carchia 0–2
62% 25%
2.00
Feb 08 Top Gun - Lemire @ Spartans - Flood 5–6
39% 46%
1.13
Feb 08 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Northeast Generals - Miller 0–8
2% 94%
0.09
Feb 08 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ Jr Mounties 2016 8–3
98% 1%
0.03
Feb 07 Jr Mounties 2016 @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 1–11
1% 99%
0.02
Feb 07 Spartans - Flood @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 3–6
20% 71%
0.50
Feb 07 Top Gun - Lemire @ Shamrocks - Tavares 2–2
36% 47%
2.59
Feb 07 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Jr Mounties 2016 5–3
26% 61%
1.93
Feb 07 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Northeast Generals - Miller 1–6
2% 94%
0.09
Feb 01 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 4–7
0% 99%
0.01
Feb 01 Northeast Generals - Miller @ Spartans - Flood 5–1
48% 36%
1.05
Feb 01 Boch Blazers @ Top Gun - Lemire 6–4
64% 24%
0.65
Feb 01 IHC West - Carchia @ Shamrocks - Tavares 4–6
46% 40%
1.34
Feb 01 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Jr Mounties 2016 7–3
98% 1%
0.03
Jan 31 Northeast Generals - Miller @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 3–2
18% 70%
2.48
Jan 31 Jr Mounties 2016 @ NorthStars - Tuccio 0–6
1% 97%
0.05
Jan 31 Spartans - Flood @ Boch Blazers 3–4
20% 70%
0.52
Jan 31 Top Gun - Lemire @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 6–3
89% 5%
0.17
Jan 31 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ IHC West - Carchia 0–9
2% 96%
0.07
Jan 31 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ Shamrocks - Tavares 4–2
63% 26%
0.68
Jan 25 Top Gun - Lemire @ IHC West - Carchia 1–6
37% 49%
1.03
Jan 24 NorthStars - Tuccio @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 8–0
96% 1%
0.05
Jan 24 Boch Blazers @ Northeast Generals - Miller 2–7
60% 27%
1.89
Jan 24 Boch Blazers @ Northeast Generals - Miller 7–5
58% 28%
0.78
Jan 24 IHC West - Carchia @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 4–6
22% 69%
0.53
Jan 24 Spartans - Flood @ Shamrocks - Tavares 1–4
41% 44%
1.19
Jan 18 Boch Blazers @ Top Gun - Lemire 7–1
59% 28%
0.76
Jan 17 Northeast Generals - Miller @ NorthStars - Tuccio 2–3
22% 62%
0.70
Jan 17 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Top Gun - Lemire 6–2
68% 19%
0.55
Jan 16 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 0–9
0% 99%
0.01
Jan 11 IHC West - Carchia @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 10–5
94% 3%
0.09
Jan 11 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Shamrocks - Tavares 6–3
71% 17%
0.49
Jan 11 Boch Blazers @ NorthStars - Tuccio 3–5
35% 50%
0.99
Jan 11 Northeast Generals - Miller @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 0–3
26% 63%
0.67
Jan 11 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Jr Mounties 2016 4–4
25% 62%
2.94 UPSET
Jan 10 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ Boch Blazers 2–12
47% 42%
1.25
Jan 10 Spartans - Flood @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 8–4
92% 4%
0.12
Jan 10 Jr Mounties 2016 @ Top Gun - Lemire 1–7
5% 90%
0.16
Jan 10 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 1–7
0% 99%
0.01
Jan 10 NorthStars - Tuccio @ Shamrocks - Tavares 3–1
61% 24%
0.72
Jan 04 Boch Blazers @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 3–3
98% 1%
6.64 UPSET
Jan 04 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Spartans - Flood 5–6
74% 15%
2.73 UPSET
Jan 04 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ Top Gun - Lemire 6–3
61% 28%
0.72
Jan 04 Shamrocks - Tavares @ Northeast Generals - Miller 3–2
33% 50%
1.59
Jan 04 Jr Mounties 2016 @ IHC West - Carchia 3–6
3% 94%
0.09
Jan 04 NorthStars - Tuccio @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 10–0
95% 2%
0.07
Jan 03 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Boch Blazers 3–11
1% 99%
0.02
Jan 03 NorthStars - Tuccio @ Top Gun - Lemire 4–1
53% 30%
0.92
Jan 03 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 5–7
62% 27%
1.90
Jan 03 Jr Mounties 2016 @ Spartans - Flood 3–8
6% 89%
0.16
Jan 03 IHC West - Carchia @ Northeast Generals - Miller 3–4
40% 46%
1.12
Jan 03 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Shamrocks - Tavares 0–3
3% 93%
0.10
Dec 28 NorthStars - Tuccio @ Boch Blazers 2–2
41% 45%
2.82
Dec 28 Spartans - Flood @ IHC West - Carchia 5–4
33% 54%
1.61
Dec 28 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Shamrocks - Tavares 0–7
4% 90%
0.15
Dec 28 Jr Mounties 2016 @ Northeast Generals - Miller 2–7
5% 90%
0.15
Dec 27 Spartans - Flood @ Northeast Generals - Miller 1–3
37% 48%
1.06
Dec 27 Shamrocks - Tavares @ IHC West - Carchia 3–5
34% 52%
0.94
Dec 27 Jr Mounties 2016 @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 6–4
60% 27%
0.75
Dec 21 Northeast Generals - Miller @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 11–1
84% 7%
0.25
Dec 21 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 5–3
62% 27%
0.68
Dec 21 Shamrocks - Tavares @ Top Gun - Lemire 4–3
33% 51%
1.59
Dec 21 Boch Blazers @ Spartans - Flood 7–4
62% 27%
0.70
Dec 21 NorthStars - Tuccio @ IHC West - Carchia 1–8
64% 23%
2.11
Dec 21 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Jr Mounties 2016 2–3
28% 60%
0.74
Dec 20 Northeast Generals - Miller @ IHC West - Carchia 3–6
36% 49%
1.03
Dec 20 Jr Mounties 2016 @ IHC West - Carchia 2–7
5% 92%
0.12
Dec 20 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Northeast Generals - Miller 1–2
3% 93%
0.11
Dec 20 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Top Gun - Lemire 5–1
66% 21%
0.61
Dec 20 Spartans - Flood @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 6–0
89% 5%
0.16
Dec 20 NorthStars - Tuccio @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 3–2
46% 42%
1.12
Dec 20 Shamrocks - Tavares @ Boch Blazers 4–2
18% 72%
2.45
Dec 19 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 3–2
99% 0%
0.01
Dec 14 Spartans - Flood @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 3–12
25% 65%
0.62
Dec 14 Boch Blazers @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 11–1
97% 1%
0.04
Dec 14 Northeast Generals - Miller @ NorthStars - Tuccio 5–2
14% 74%
2.87 UPSET
Dec 14 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Top Gun - Lemire 2–3
2% 96%
0.07
Dec 14 Shamrocks - Tavares @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 2–8
11% 80%
0.32
Dec 13 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ Northeast Generals - Miller 8–2
52% 37%
0.95
Dec 13 Top Gun - Lemire @ Boch Blazers 0–4
37% 50%
0.99
Dec 13 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ IHC West - Carchia 1–5
2% 96%
0.06
Dec 13 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Jr Mounties 2016 4–0
99% 1%
0.02
Dec 13 NorthStars - Tuccio @ Shamrocks - Tavares 2–1
66% 20%
0.59
Dec 07 Shamrocks - Tavares @ Top Gun - Lemire 7–1
18% 69%
2.44
Dec 07 Northeast Generals - Miller @ Spartans - Flood 3–1 50/50
Dec 07 Boch Blazers @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 3–9
50% 39%
1.34
Dec 07 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 3–1
34% 51%
1.56
Dec 06 Shamrocks - Tavares @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 5–3
90% 5%
0.16
Dec 06 Jr Mounties 2016 @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 5–8
1% 98%
0.02
Dec 06 Spartans - Flood @ Boch Blazers 4–7
28% 60%
0.73
Dec 06 Top Gun - Lemire @ Northeast Generals - Miller 4–3 50/50
Dec 06 IHC West - Carchia @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 5–7
10% 83%
0.27
Dec 05 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 11–1
99% 0%
0.01
Nov 30 Jr Mounties 2016 @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 5–9
58% 29%
1.81
Nov 30 NorthStars - Tuccio @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 1–6
36% 48%
1.05
Nov 30 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ IHC West - Carchia 0–10
3% 95%
0.08
Nov 29 Jr Mounties 2016 @ NorthStars - Tuccio 4–3
0% 99%
7.94 UPSET
Nov 29 IHC West - Carchia @ Boch Blazers 8–7
17% 74%
2.53 UPSET
Nov 23 IHC West - Carchia @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 9–2
88% 6%
0.19
Nov 22 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 7–0
98% 1%
0.03
Nov 22 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 11–4
99% 0%
0.01
Nov 22 Jr Mounties 2016 @ Shamrocks - Tavares 1–2
4% 92%
0.13
Nov 16 NorthStars - Tuccio @ Jr Mounties 2016 10–1
98% 1%
0.02
Nov 16 Shamrocks - Tavares @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 3–3
90% 5%
4.17 UPSET
Nov 16 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ IHC West - Carchia 8–4
69% 23%
0.54
Nov 16 Boch Blazers @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 12–2
98% 1%
0.03
Nov 16 Northeast Generals - Miller @ Top Gun - Lemire 4–4 50/50
Nov 15 Jr Mounties 2016 @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 6–3
48% 40%
1.07
Nov 15 Top Gun - Lemire @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 7–8
46% 42%
1.26
Nov 15 IHC West - Carchia @ Boch Blazers 4–7
18% 73%
0.45
Nov 15 Shamrocks - Tavares @ Spartans - Flood 2–3
36% 50%
1.00
Nov 09 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Boch Blazers 1–7
1% 98%
0.03
Nov 09 Spartans - Flood @ NorthStars - Tuccio 1–5
19% 69%
0.54
Nov 09 Top Gun - Lemire @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 0–6
37% 47%
1.08
Nov 08 NorthStars - Tuccio @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 4–6
68% 22%
2.17
Nov 08 Spartans - Flood @ Top Gun - Lemire 3–1
19% 68%
2.42
Nov 02 Top Gun - Lemire @ NorthStars - Tuccio 3–1
29% 55%
1.80
Nov 02 Shamrocks - Tavares @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 6–7
14% 76%
0.39
Nov 02 Boch Blazers @ Spartans - Flood 6–3
52% 35%
0.95
Nov 01 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ NorthStars - Tuccio 1–4
38% 47%
1.09
Nov 01 Boch Blazers @ Shamrocks - Tavares 3–4
64% 24%
2.04
Nov 01 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ IHC West - Carchia 0–7
5% 90%
0.15
Nov 01 Jr Mounties 2016 @ Spartans - Flood 1–11
4% 92%
0.13
Oct 26 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 6–4
33% 51%
1.60
Oct 26 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ Boch Blazers 5–4
58% 30%
0.79
Oct 26 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ NorthStars - Tuccio 1–4
0% 99%
0.02
Oct 26 Shamrocks - Tavares @ Jr Mounties 2016 7–2
84% 10%
0.25
Oct 25 Spartans - Flood @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 4–3
11% 81%
3.19 UPSET
Oct 25 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ NorthStars - Tuccio 2–9
0% 99%
0.02
Oct 25 IHC West - Carchia @ Top Gun - Lemire 1–2
13% 78%
0.36
Oct 25 Boch Blazers @ Jr Mounties 2016 10–4
97% 1%
0.04
Oct 25 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ Shamrocks - Tavares 6–5
63% 27%
0.67
Oct 19 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 0–8
0% 99%
0.01
Oct 19 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ Spartans - Flood 11–3
41% 47%
1.28
Oct 19 Top Gun - Lemire @ Jr Mounties 2016 8–2
97% 2%
0.05
Oct 18 Spartans - Flood @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 3–6
17% 72%
0.47
Oct 18 Boch Blazers @ NorthStars - Tuccio 2–5
26% 63%
0.67
Oct 18 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 2–12
1% 97%
0.04
Oct 12 IHC West - Carchia @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 9–0
80% 11%
0.31
Oct 11 Top Gun - Lemire @ NorthStars - Tuccio 6–4
24% 61%
2.03
Oct 11 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 4–5
36% 48%
1.06
Oct 05 Spartans - Flood @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 8–0
80% 11%
0.31
Oct 05 Boch Blazers @ Shamrocks - Tavares 4–2
69% 22%
0.53
Oct 05 IHC West - Carchia @ Jr Mounties 2016 13–4
67% 23%
0.58
Oct 04 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ IHC West - Carchia 7–2
88% 7%
0.19
Oct 04 Northern Cyclones - Abbis @ NorthStars - Tuccio 0–9
2% 96%
0.07
Oct 04 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Spartans - Flood 0–8
6% 88%
0.18
Oct 04 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 8–4
86% 8%
0.22
Oct 04 Top Gun - Lemire @ Shamrocks - Tavares 1–5
88% 6%
4.00 UPSET
Sep 28 Top Gun - Lemire @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 10–1 50/50
Sep 28 IHC West - Carchia @ NorthStars - Tuccio 1–10
10% 83%
0.27
Sep 28 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 6–9
11% 82%
0.28
Sep 27 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Boch Blazers 2–11
1% 98%
0.02
Sep 27 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ NorthStars - Tuccio 2–9
28% 60%
0.73
Sep 27 Jr Mounties 2016 @ Top Gun - Lemire 2–9
2% 97%
0.05
Sep 21 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ Boch Blazers 8–9
23% 69%
0.54
Sep 21 NorthStars - Tuccio @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 10–0 50/50
Sep 21 IHC West - Carchia @ Spartans - Flood 5–4
30% 57%
1.74
Sep 21 Shamrocks - Tavares @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 6–2
70% 20%
0.52
Sep 20 Jr Mounties 2016 @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 3–11
1% 98%
Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.03
Sep 20 Shamrocks - Tavares @ NorthStars - Tuccio 4–5 50/50
Sep 20 Top Gun - Lemire @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 11–2 50/50
Sep 20 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ Spartans - Flood 5–7 50/50
Sep 20 Boch Blazers @ IHC West - Carchia 10–7 50/50
Sep 14 NorthStars - Tuccio @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 0–4 50/50
Sep 14 IHC West - Carchia @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 9–3 50/50
Sep 14 Shamrocks - Tavares @ Minuteman Flames - Nute 6–11 50/50
Sep 13 Top Gun - Lemire @ Spartans - Flood 3–2 50/50
Sep 13 Boch Blazers @ Jr Mounties 2016 13–3 50/50
Sep 13 Minuteman Flames - Nute @ Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock 13–3 50/50
Sep 13 Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin @ IHC West - Carchia 7–0 50/50
Sep 07 Spartans - Flood @ NorthStars - Tuccio 2–9 50/50
Sep 07 Jr Mounties 2016 @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 3–13 50/50
Sep 07 IHC West - Carchia @ Top Gun - Lemire 0–5 50/50
Sep 06 Spartans - Flood @ Shamrocks - Tavares 9–3 50/50
Sep 06 Boch Blazers @ Providence Capitals (South) - Goodwin 8–7 50/50
Aug 31 Spartans - Flood @ Jr Mounties 2016 9–4 50/50
Aug 01 Providence Capitals (North) - Warnock @ Spartans - Flood 0–0 50/50
Aug 01 NorthStars - Tuccio @ Northern Cyclones - Abbis 0–0 50/50