The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS
1 Boch Blazers - Busch 34 33 1 0 254 73 66
2 Providence (North) - Bradley 34 24 9 1 263 130 49
3 Young Guns - Kent 32 20 10 2 155 96 42
4 MC Selects - Gajda 34 16 13 5 178 182 37
5 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 35 14 19 2 159 176 30
6 Spartans - Savage 33 13 18 2 173 224 28
7 Bay State Waves Black 32 11 19 2 138 168 24
8 Bay State Waves Green 32 8 22 2 104 199 18
9 Northern Twisters - Weiand 34 7 23 4 92 180 18
10 Team Northeast 1 0 1 0 4 5 0
11 MC Selects 1 0 1 0 1 8 0
12 Providence Mix Futures North - Lesanto 1 0 1 0 0 11 0
13 Minuteman Sparks 1 0 1 0 0 14 0
14 Manchester Inferno - Favreau 2 0 2 0 2 17 0
15 Spartans 3 0 3 0 4 21 0
16 Boston Jr Dogs White 3 0 3 0 1 24 0

Game Log

Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Feb 22 MC Selects - Gajda @ Bay State Waves Green 0–3
69.0%
25.4%
1.97
Feb 22 Bay State Waves Black @ Boch Blazers - Busch 2–8
8.2%
86.2%
0.21
Feb 22 MC Selects - Gajda @ Bay State Waves Green 5–5
69.0%
25.4%
4.17 UPSET
Feb 22 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Spartans - Savage 1–7
33.6%
60.9%
0.72
Feb 21 MC Selects - Gajda @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–8
8.5%
86.4%
0.21
Feb 21 Spartans - Savage @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 9–4
59.5%
35.4%
0.75
Feb 21 Young Guns - Kent @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 2–2
72.1%
22.8%
4.30 UPSET
Feb 21 Bay State Waves Green @ Providence (North) - Bradley 3–13
6.4%
88.6%
0.18
Feb 15 Bay State Waves Green @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–10
4.7%
90.1%
0.15
Feb 15 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Young Guns - Kent 1–3
7.8%
86.9%
0.20
Feb 15 MC Selects - Gajda @ Bay State Waves Black 4–2
46.5%
48.2%
1.10
Feb 15 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Spartans - Savage 5–7
65.2%
29.6%
1.76
Feb 15 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Bay State Waves Green 16–1
90.1%
4.7%
0.15
Feb 14 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Bay State Waves Black 6–2
43.5%
51.1%
1.20
Feb 14 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Bay State Waves Black 6–3
43.5%
51.1%
1.20
Feb 14 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ MC Selects - Gajda 2–4
22.7%
72.0%
0.47
Feb 14 Young Guns - Kent @ Spartans - Savage 5–3
82.3%
12.3%
0.28
Feb 08 Bay State Waves Black @ Spartans - Savage 2–2
66.4%
28.8%
4.39 UPSET
Feb 08 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 3–8
75.5%
19.7%
2.34
Feb 07 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 7–1
90.3%
4.9%
0.15
Feb 07 Spartans - Savage @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 4–3
30.1%
65.1%
1.73
Feb 01 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 3–4
20.3%
74.7%
0.42
Feb 01 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Spartans - Savage 3–9
88.4%
6.6%
3.93 UPSET
Feb 01 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Young Guns - Kent 4–0
67.2%
27.8%
0.57
Feb 01 Bay State Waves Green @ MC Selects - Gajda 2–9
36.3%
58.7%
0.77
Feb 01 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ MC Selects - Gajda 2–5
22.7%
72.3%
0.47
Jan 31 MC Selects - Gajda @ Spartans - Savage 5–4
62.2%
32.6%
0.68
Jan 31 Young Guns - Kent @ Bay State Waves Green 8–3
81.4%
13.4%
0.30
Jan 31 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Providence (North) - Bradley 2–10
16.0%
78.8%
0.34
Jan 31 MC Selects - Gajda @ Spartans - Savage 8–5
62.2%
32.6%
0.68
Jan 31 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Boch Blazers - Busch 0–9
3.6%
91.3%
0.13
Jan 25 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Bay State Waves Green 0–0
33.9%
61.6%
4.48 UPSET
Jan 24 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Young Guns - Kent 1–2
7.9%
87.4%
0.19
Jan 24 Bay State Waves Black @ Spartans - Savage 5–6
73.1%
22.2%
2.17
Jan 24 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Bay State Waves Green 13–1
82.5%
12.8%
0.28
Jan 24 Boch Blazers - Busch @ MC Selects - Gajda 4–3
86.8%
8.5%
0.20
Jan 24 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Bay State Waves Green 6–0
82.5%
12.8%
0.28
Jan 24 Bay State Waves Black @ Spartans - Savage 1–5
73.1%
22.2%
2.17
Jan 18 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Young Guns - Kent 1–4
57.8%
37.5%
1.41
Jan 17 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Young Guns - Kent 0–2
25.1%
70.1%
0.51
Jan 17 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–7
40.0%
55.2%
0.86
Jan 11 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Spartans - Savage 4–8
45.4%
49.6%
1.01
Jan 11 MC Selects - Gajda @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 5–2
36.8%
58.2%
1.44
Jan 11 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Bay State Waves Green 12–3
85.9%
9.2%
0.22
Jan 11 Bay State Waves Black @ Young Guns - Kent 3–2
24.7%
70.4%
2.02
Jan 10 Bay State Waves Green @ MC Selects - Gajda 6–11
54.2%
41.4%
1.27
Jan 10 Young Guns - Kent @ Boch Blazers - Busch 0–5
32.9%
62.8%
0.67
Jan 10 Spartans - Savage @ Bay State Waves Black 8–9
20.0%
75.7%
0.40
Jan 10 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Bay State Waves Black 4–4
18.7%
77.0%
4.54 UPSET
Jan 10 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 3–5
80.7%
15.0%
2.74 UPSET
Jan 04 Bay State Waves Black @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 9–3
74.7%
20.8%
0.42
Jan 04 Bay State Waves Green @ Spartans - Savage 2–6
74.0%
21.4%
2.22
Jan 04 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Young Guns - Kent 1–5
24.7%
70.8%
0.50
Jan 04 MC Selects - Gajda @ Providence (North) - Bradley 3–8
10.5%
85.0%
0.23
Jan 04 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 8–5
91.9%
3.6%
0.12
Jan 03 Spartans - Savage @ Boch Blazers - Busch 4–11
3.8%
91.5%
0.13
Jan 03 Bay State Waves Black @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 4–7
45.7%
49.7%
1.01
Jan 03 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Young Guns - Kent 4–1
57.4%
37.9%
0.80
Dec 28 Bay State Waves Green @ Boch Blazers - Busch 0–10
15.7%
79.5%
0.33
Dec 28 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Bay State Waves Black 8–2
74.5%
20.6%
0.42
Dec 28 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Bay State Waves Black 11–2
74.5%
20.6%
0.42
Dec 28 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 4–0
15.8%
79.4%
2.66 UPSET
Dec 27 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 8–3
77.6%
17.4%
0.37
Dec 27 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 8–2
90.1%
4.9%
0.15
Dec 27 Bay State Waves Black @ Bay State Waves Green 5–2
47.8%
47.3%
1.07
Dec 21 Bay State Waves Green @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 2–4
49.2%
45.7%
1.13
Dec 21 Young Guns - Kent @ Bay State Waves Black 6–0
65.5%
29.4%
0.61
Dec 21 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Providence (North) - Bradley 7–5
51.3%
43.6%
0.96
Dec 20 Bay State Waves Black @ MC Selects - Gajda 0–10
71.5%
24.2%
2.04
Dec 20 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Providence (North) - Bradley 2–10
23.3%
72.4%
0.47
Dec 20 Spartans - Savage @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 5–5
51.8%
43.9%
4.54
Dec 20 Young Guns - Kent @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–4
37.6%
58.1%
0.78
Dec 20 Young Guns - Kent @ Boch Blazers - Busch 2–3
37.6%
58.1%
0.78
Dec 14 Bay State Waves Black @ Providence (North) - Bradley 4–10
33.0%
62.6%
0.68
Dec 14 MC Selects - Gajda @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 10–4
25.0%
70.5%
2.00
Dec 14 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Spartans - Savage 10–1
89.5%
6.0%
0.16
Dec 14 Bay State Waves Green @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 4–6
83.2%
12.3%
3.03 UPSET
Dec 13 Bay State Waves Black @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 2–11
66.5%
30.1%
1.73
Dec 13 Providence (North) - Bradley @ MC Selects - Gajda 11–11
86.7%
9.8%
4.86 UPSET
Dec 07 Bay State Waves Black @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–10
49.9%
47.6%
1.07
Dec 07 Bay State Waves Green @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 0–9
91.7%
5.8%
4.10 UPSET
Dec 07 MC Selects - Gajda @ Young Guns - Kent 4–4
12.7%
84.8%
5.36 UPSET
Dec 07 MC Selects - Gajda @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 3–4
79.9%
17.7%
2.50 UPSET
Dec 07 Spartans - Savage @ Providence (North) - Bradley 4–12
7.5%
90.0%
0.15
Dec 06 Young Guns - Kent @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 5–0
94.5%
2.9%
0.08
Dec 06 Bay State Waves Green @ Spartans - Savage 7–11
88.4%
9.0%
3.47 UPSET
Dec 06 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Providence (North) - Bradley 4–2
44.4%
53.0%
1.17
Dec 06 Spartans - Savage @ Bay State Waves Green 3–1
9.0%
88.4%
3.47 UPSET
Dec 06 Bay State Waves Black @ MC Selects - Gajda 5–6
89.9%
7.5%
3.73 UPSET
Nov 30 Young Guns - Kent @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 4–3
70.1%
27.2%
0.51
Nov 30 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Bay State Waves Black 8–3
32.2%
65.1%
1.64
Nov 30 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Bay State Waves Green 4–3
2.6%
94.7%
5.25 UPSET
Nov 29 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–11
31.8%
65.4%
0.61
Nov 29 Young Guns - Kent @ Bay State Waves Green 4–1
50.6%
46.6%
0.98
Nov 29 Young Guns - Kent @ Bay State Waves Black 4–3
23.3%
73.9%
2.10
Nov 23 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Bay State Waves Green 3–5
25.1%
72.0%
0.47
Nov 23 Young Guns - Kent @ Providence (North) - Bradley 3–7
42.9%
54.2%
0.88
Nov 23 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Bay State Waves Green 7–2
25.1%
72.0%
2.00
Nov 22 Bay State Waves Black @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 2–4
98.1%
0.3%
8.32 UPSET
Nov 22 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ MC Selects - Gajda 3–3
78.5%
20.0%
6.02 UPSET
Nov 22 Spartans - Savage @ Young Guns - Kent 8–10
4.2%
94.2%
0.09
Nov 16 MC Selects - Gajda @ Boch Blazers - Busch 5–8
11.0%
87.3%
0.20
Nov 16 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Providence (North) - Bradley 3–13
1.1%
97.3%
0.04
Nov 16 Bay State Waves Green @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 1–13
92.0%
6.4%
3.97 UPSET
Nov 15 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 9–4
75.7%
22.6%
0.40
Nov 15 Spartans - Savage @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 5–3
85.2%
13.1%
0.23
Nov 15 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Bay State Waves Black 7–0
6.5%
91.8%
3.95 UPSET
Nov 09 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–7
1.0%
97.3%
0.04
Nov 09 Spartans - Savage @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 1–8
14.6%
83.7%
0.26
Nov 08 Spartans - Savage @ MC Selects - Gajda 8–9
39.8%
58.3%
0.78
Nov 08 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 7–6
70.1%
27.9%
0.51
Nov 08 Spartans - Savage @ MC Selects - Gajda 4–14
39.8%
58.3%
0.78
Nov 08 Bay State Waves Green @ Bay State Waves Black 1–8
82.6%
15.4%
2.70 UPSET
Nov 08 Young Guns - Kent @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 9–1
97.4%
0.6%
0.04
Nov 02 Spartans - Savage @ Providence (North) - Bradley 4–13
5.3%
92.7%
0.11
Nov 02 Bay State Waves Green @ Spartans 4–1 50/50 —
Nov 02 Team Northeast @ Bay State Waves Black 4–5 50/50 —
Nov 01 Spartans - Savage @ Young Guns - Kent 8–12
4.9%
92.8%
0.11
Nov 01 MC Selects @ Bay State Waves Black 1–8 50/50 —
Nov 01 Bay State Waves Green @ Manchester Inferno - Favreau 4–2 50/50 —
Oct 26 MC Selects - Gajda @ Young Guns - Kent 4–13
11.5%
86.1%
0.22
Oct 26 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Boch Blazers - Busch 6–7
59.2%
38.5%
1.38
Oct 25 Boch Blazers - Busch @ MC Selects - Gajda 6–4
84.7%
12.7%
0.24
Oct 25 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Providence (North) - Bradley 0–9
3.7%
93.7%
0.09
Oct 19 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Providence (North) - Bradley 3–2
41.1%
56.2%
1.28
Oct 19 Bay State Waves Green @ Boston Jr Dogs White 8–0 50/50 —
Oct 18 Boston Jr Dogs White @ Bay State Waves Black 1–5 50/50 —
Oct 18 Spartans - Savage @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 4–8
11.0%
85.9%
0.22
Oct 18 Providence (North) - Bradley @ MC Selects - Gajda 6–4
88.2%
8.7%
0.18
Oct 11 Providence Mix Futures North - Lesanto @ Bay State Waves Green 0–11 50/50 —
Oct 11 MC Selects - Gajda @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 5–1
52.9%
43.9%
0.92
Oct 05 Bay State Waves Black @ Spartans 10–3 50/50 —
Oct 05 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 7–0
80.6%
15.9%
0.31
Oct 04 Providence (North) - Bradley @ MC Selects - Gajda 3–2
90.6%
5.1%
0.14
Oct 04 Spartans @ Bay State Waves Green 0–7 50/50 —
Oct 04 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Young Guns - Kent 0–4 50/50 —
Oct 04 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–4
44.8%
50.8%
0.98
Oct 04 Minuteman Sparks @ Bay State Waves Black 0–14 50/50 —
Sep 28 MC Selects - Gajda @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 28 Bay State Waves Green @ Boston Jr Dogs White 11–0 50/50 —
Sep 28 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Spartans - Savage 3–12
82.7%
0.3%
8.19 UPSET
Sep 27 Young Guns - Kent @ Providence (North) - Bradley 5–6
21.7%
68.0% ⚠
0.56
Sep 27 Manchester Inferno - Favreau @ Bay State Waves Black 0–13 50/50 —
Sep 27 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 6–3 50/50 —
Sep 21 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Spartans - Savage 5–2
75.1%
7.9% ⚠
0.41
Sep 21 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Young Guns - Kent 6–2
35.1%
47.9% ⚠
1.51
Sep 20 Boch Blazers - Busch @ MC Selects - Gajda 3–5 50/50 —
Sep 20 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Providence (North) - Bradley 5–12 50/50 —
Sep 14 Young Guns - Kent @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 8–2 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Spartans - Savage 12–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 Young Guns - Kent @ MC Selects - Gajda 12–2
77.6%
5.4% ⚠
0.37
Sep 13 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Spartans - Savage 11–2 50/50 —
Sep 07 MC Selects - Gajda @ Providence (North) - Bradley 2–17 50/50 —
Sep 07 Young Guns - Kent @ Spartans - Savage 13–3 50/50 —
Sep 06 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ MC Selects - Gajda 14–6 50/50 —
Aug 01 Young Guns - Kent @ MC Selects - Gajda 0–3 50/50 —