Season Review

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS
1 Boch Blazers - Busch 34 33 1 0 254 73 66
2 Providence (North) - Bradley 34 24 9 1 263 130 49
3 Young Guns - Kent 32 20 10 2 155 96 42
4 MC Selects - Gajda 34 16 13 5 178 182 37
5 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 35 14 19 2 159 176 30
6 Spartans - Savage 33 13 18 2 173 224 28
7 Northern Twisters - Weiand 34 7 23 4 92 180 18
8 Bay State Waves Black 26 5 19 2 83 159 12
9 Bay State Waves Green 26 2 22 2 59 196 6

Game Log

Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Feb 22 Bay State Waves Black @ Boch Blazers - Busch 2–8
0.5%
98.4%
0.02
Feb 22 MC Selects - Gajda @ Bay State Waves Green 0–3
96.3%
1.7%
5.89 UPSET
Feb 22 MC Selects - Gajda @ Bay State Waves Green 5–5
96.3%
1.7%
5.66 UPSET
Feb 22 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Spartans - Savage 1–7
25.3%
62.9%
0.67
Feb 21 Bay State Waves Green @ Providence (North) - Bradley 3–13
0.1%
99.7%
0.00
Feb 21 Young Guns - Kent @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 2–2
73.9%
15.0%
3.18 UPSET
Feb 21 MC Selects - Gajda @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–8
3.9%
92.3%
0.12
Feb 21 Spartans - Savage @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 9–4
60.3%
27.4%
0.73
Feb 15 Bay State Waves Green @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–10
0.1%
99.8%
0.00
Feb 15 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Young Guns - Kent 1–3
6.1%
85.7%
0.22
Feb 15 MC Selects - Gajda @ Bay State Waves Black 4–2
81.4%
11.2%
0.30
Feb 15 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Spartans - Savage 5–7
58.1%
30.8%
1.70
Feb 15 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Bay State Waves Green 16–1
99.8%
0.1%
0.00
Feb 14 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Bay State Waves Black 6–2
67.7%
20.9%
0.56
Feb 14 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Bay State Waves Black 6–3
67.7%
20.9%
0.56
Feb 14 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ MC Selects - Gajda 2–4
12.4%
78.9%
0.34
Feb 14 Young Guns - Kent @ Spartans - Savage 5–3
86.8%
7.4%
0.20
Feb 08 Bay State Waves Black @ Spartans - Savage 2–2
28.7%
60.5%
3.21 UPSET
Feb 08 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 3–8
70.9%
16.9%
2.57 UPSET
Feb 07 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 7–1
95.2%
2.1%
0.07
Feb 07 Spartans - Savage @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 4–3
28.3%
61.2%
1.82
Feb 01 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Young Guns - Kent 4–0
68.0%
17.9%
0.56
Feb 01 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ MC Selects - Gajda 2–5
10.7%
81.2%
0.30
Feb 01 Bay State Waves Green @ MC Selects - Gajda 2–9
1.7%
96.2%
0.06
Feb 01 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Spartans - Savage 3–9
96.6%
1.8%
5.79 UPSET
Feb 01 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 3–4
15.9%
72.6%
0.46
Jan 31 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Boch Blazers - Busch 0–9
1.0%
97.0%
0.04
Jan 31 MC Selects - Gajda @ Spartans - Savage 8–5
78.2%
14.9%
0.35
Jan 31 MC Selects - Gajda @ Spartans - Savage 5–4
78.2%
14.9%
0.35
Jan 31 Young Guns - Kent @ Bay State Waves Green 8–3
97.7%
0.7%
0.03
Jan 31 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Providence (North) - Bradley 2–10
9.7%
83.8%
0.25
Jan 25 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Bay State Waves Green 0–0
71.8%
16.2%
3.06 UPSET
Jan 24 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Bay State Waves Green 6–0
99.7%
0.1%
0.01
Jan 24 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Young Guns - Kent 1–2
5.2%
88.7%
0.17
Jan 24 Bay State Waves Black @ Spartans - Savage 5–6
37.5%
51.4%
0.96
Jan 24 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Bay State Waves Green 13–1
99.7%
0.1%
0.01
Jan 24 Boch Blazers - Busch @ MC Selects - Gajda 4–3
91.7%
4.4%
0.13
Jan 24 Bay State Waves Black @ Spartans - Savage 1–5
37.5%
51.4%
0.96
Jan 18 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Young Guns - Kent 1–4
53.7%
33.1%
1.60
Jan 17 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Young Guns - Kent 0–2
17.9%
71.0%
0.49
Jan 17 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–7
26.3%
61.5%
0.70
Jan 11 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Spartans - Savage 4–8
33.7%
54.0%
0.89
Jan 11 MC Selects - Gajda @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 5–2
49.2%
39.1%
1.02
Jan 11 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Bay State Waves Green 12–3
99.8%
0.1%
0.00
Jan 11 Bay State Waves Black @ Young Guns - Kent 3–2
4.5%
91.0%
4.48 UPSET
Jan 10 Spartans - Savage @ Bay State Waves Black 8–9
56.2%
32.7%
1.61
Jan 10 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Bay State Waves Black 4–4
42.6%
42.3%
2.72
Jan 10 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 3–5
88.3%
6.8%
3.89 UPSET
Jan 10 Bay State Waves Green @ MC Selects - Gajda 6–11
1.2%
97.3%
0.04
Jan 10 Young Guns - Kent @ Boch Blazers - Busch 0–5
22.1%
64.6%
0.63
Jan 04 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Young Guns - Kent 1–5
14.8%
75.8%
0.40
Jan 04 Bay State Waves Black @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 9–3
35.3%
48.6%
1.50
Jan 04 Bay State Waves Green @ Spartans - Savage 2–6
5.3%
90.4%
0.15
Jan 04 MC Selects - Gajda @ Providence (North) - Bradley 3–8
9.6%
84.8%
0.24
Jan 04 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 8–5
96.1%
1.4%
0.06
Jan 03 Spartans - Savage @ Boch Blazers - Busch 4–11
0.6%
98.6%
0.02
Jan 03 Bay State Waves Black @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 4–7
12.3%
79.2%
0.34
Jan 03 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Young Guns - Kent 4–1
53.5%
34.2%
0.90
Dec 28 Bay State Waves Green @ Boch Blazers - Busch 0–10
0.1%
99.8%
0.00
Dec 28 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Bay State Waves Black 8–2
98.3%
0.8%
0.03
Dec 28 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Bay State Waves Black 11–2
98.3%
0.8%
0.03
Dec 28 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 4–0
14.4%
75.5%
2.80 UPSET
Dec 27 Bay State Waves Black @ Bay State Waves Green 5–2
67.9%
19.8%
0.56
Dec 27 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 8–3
90.5%
4.7%
0.14
Dec 27 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 8–2
96.4%
1.6%
0.05
Dec 21 Young Guns - Kent @ Bay State Waves Black 6–0
94.0%
2.8%
0.09
Dec 21 Bay State Waves Green @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 2–4
1.8%
96.1%
0.06
Dec 21 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Providence (North) - Bradley 7–5
64.6%
23.6%
0.63
Dec 20 Young Guns - Kent @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–4
17.7%
70.6%
0.50
Dec 20 Young Guns - Kent @ Boch Blazers - Busch 2–3
17.7%
70.6%
0.50
Dec 20 Bay State Waves Black @ MC Selects - Gajda 0–10
14.5%
77.4%
0.37
Dec 20 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Providence (North) - Bradley 2–10
11.7%
81.5%
0.29
Dec 20 Spartans - Savage @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 5–5
59.1%
28.4%
3.00 UPSET
Dec 14 Bay State Waves Black @ Providence (North) - Bradley 4–10
1.5%
97.0%
0.04
Dec 14 MC Selects - Gajda @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 10–4
34.0%
54.7%
1.56
Dec 14 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Spartans - Savage 10–1
98.2%
0.8%
0.03
Dec 14 Bay State Waves Green @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 4–6
19.3%
66.5%
0.59
Dec 13 Bay State Waves Black @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 2–11
19.7%
69.7%
0.52
Dec 13 Providence (North) - Bradley @ MC Selects - Gajda 11–11
89.5%
6.1%
4.51 UPSET
Dec 07 Bay State Waves Black @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–10
2.9%
93.7%
0.09
Dec 07 MC Selects - Gajda @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 3–4
85.4%
7.6%
3.72 UPSET
Dec 07 MC Selects - Gajda @ Young Guns - Kent 4–4
13.6%
78.5%
3.66 UPSET
Dec 07 Bay State Waves Green @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 0–9
38.1%
43.7%
1.19
Dec 07 Spartans - Savage @ Providence (North) - Bradley 4–12
1.6%
97.0%
0.04
Dec 06 Bay State Waves Green @ Spartans - Savage 7–11
8.0%
86.3%
0.21
Dec 06 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Providence (North) - Bradley 4–2
56.5%
30.9%
0.82
Dec 06 Spartans - Savage @ Bay State Waves Green 3–1
86.3%
8.0%
0.21
Dec 06 Young Guns - Kent @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 5–0
95.2%
1.9%
0.07
Dec 06 Bay State Waves Black @ MC Selects - Gajda 5–6
30.8%
56.9%
0.81
Nov 30 Young Guns - Kent @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 4–3
70.2%
19.9%
0.51
Nov 30 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Bay State Waves Black 8–3
92.4%
3.4%
0.11
Nov 30 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Bay State Waves Green 4–3
47.0%
34.4%
1.09
Nov 29 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–11
10.9%
81.0%
0.30
Nov 29 Young Guns - Kent @ Bay State Waves Green 4–1
99.7%
0.1%
0.01
Nov 29 Young Guns - Kent @ Bay State Waves Black 4–3
94.9%
2.4%
0.08
Nov 23 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Bay State Waves Green 3–5 50/50 —
Nov 23 Young Guns - Kent @ Providence (North) - Bradley 3–7
38.9%
49.5%
1.01
Nov 23 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Bay State Waves Green 7–2 50/50 —
Nov 22 Bay State Waves Black @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 2–4 50/50 —
Nov 22 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ MC Selects - Gajda 3–3
59.3%
29.9%
3.21 UPSET
Nov 22 Spartans - Savage @ Young Guns - Kent 8–10
1.9%
96.2%
0.06
Nov 16 MC Selects - Gajda @ Boch Blazers - Busch 5–8
5.5%
89.6%
0.16
Nov 16 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Providence (North) - Bradley 3–13
0.6%
98.3%
0.02
Nov 16 Bay State Waves Green @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 1–13 50/50 —
Nov 15 Spartans - Savage @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 5–3
82.7%
9.0%
0.27
Nov 15 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Bay State Waves Black 7–0 50/50 —
Nov 15 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 9–4
71.5%
19.3%
0.48
Nov 09 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–7
0.7%
97.6%
0.04
Nov 09 Spartans - Savage @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 1–8
14.9%
78.0%
0.36
Nov 08 Spartans - Savage @ MC Selects - Gajda 8–9
46.2%
42.8%
1.23
Nov 08 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 7–6
83.0%
9.5%
0.27
Nov 08 Spartans - Savage @ MC Selects - Gajda 4–14
46.2%
42.8%
1.23
Nov 08 Bay State Waves Green @ Bay State Waves Black 1–8 50/50 —
Nov 08 Young Guns - Kent @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 9–1
98.1%
0.6%
0.03
Nov 02 Spartans - Savage @ Providence (North) - Bradley 4–13
5.7%
90.4%
0.15
Nov 01 Spartans - Savage @ Young Guns - Kent 8–12
3.2%
93.9%
0.09
Oct 26 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Boch Blazers - Busch 6–7
23.8%
63.4%
0.66
Oct 26 MC Selects - Gajda @ Young Guns - Kent 4–13
5.8%
89.3%
0.16
Oct 25 Boch Blazers - Busch @ MC Selects - Gajda 6–4
95.8%
1.7%
0.06
Oct 25 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Providence (North) - Bradley 0–9
1.4%
96.4%
0.05
Oct 19 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Providence (North) - Bradley 3–2
78.8%
12.3%
0.34
Oct 18 Spartans - Savage @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 4–8
22.8%
68.1%
0.55
Oct 18 Providence (North) - Bradley @ MC Selects - Gajda 6–4
91.5%
4.8%
0.13
Oct 11 MC Selects - Gajda @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 5–1
65.7%
20.2%
0.61
Oct 05 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 7–0
92.6%
2.4% ⚠
0.11
Oct 04 Providence (North) - Bradley @ MC Selects - Gajda 3–2
95.7%
2.3% ⚠
0.06
Oct 04 Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Young Guns - Kent 0–4 50/50 —
Oct 04 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Boch Blazers - Busch 1–4
6.7%
88.2% ⚠
0.18
Sep 28 MC Selects - Gajda @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 28 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Spartans - Savage 3–12
99.9%
0.0% ⚠
12.01 UPSET
Sep 27 Young Guns - Kent @ Providence (North) - Bradley 5–6
16.2%
74.8% ⚠
0.42
Sep 27 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Northern Twisters - Weiand 6–3 50/50 —
Sep 21 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Spartans - Savage 5–2
98.6%
0.7% ⚠
0.02
Sep 21 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Young Guns - Kent 6–2 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boch Blazers - Busch @ MC Selects - Gajda 3–5 50/50 —
Sep 20 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Providence (North) - Bradley 5–12 50/50 —
Sep 14 Young Guns - Kent @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli 8–2 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boch Blazers - Busch @ Spartans - Savage 12–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 Young Guns - Kent @ MC Selects - Gajda 12–2 50/50 —
Sep 13 Providence (North) - Bradley @ Spartans - Savage 11–2 50/50 —
Sep 07 Young Guns - Kent @ Spartans - Savage 13–3 50/50 —
Sep 07 MC Selects - Gajda @ Providence (North) - Bradley 2–17 50/50 —
Sep 06 Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ MC Selects - Gajda 14–6 50/50 —
Aug 01 Young Guns - Kent @ MC Selects - Gajda 0–3 50/50 —