The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	GF	GA	PTS	Champ %
1	Boch Blazers - Busch	34	32	1	1	237	72	65	0%
2	Providence (North) - Bradley	36	24	9	3	256	130	51	100%
3	Young Guns - Kent	35	20	10	5	155	96	45	0%
4	MC Selects - Gajda	35	16	13	6	178	177	38	0%
5	Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli	35	14	19	2	157	176	30	0%
6	Spartans - Savage	33	13	17	3	172	212	29	0%
7	Northern Twisters - Weiand	34	7	23	4	92	180	18	0%
8	Bay State Waves Black	30	5	19	6	83	159	16	0%
9	Bay State Waves Green	30	2	22	6	59	187	10	—

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

#	Team	Proj. Finish	Win Division	Proj. Points
1	Boch Blazers - Busch	1	100%	66 (66–66)
2	Providence (North) - Bradley	2	<1%	53 (53–53)
3	Young Guns - Kent	3	<1%	48 (46–48)
4	MC Selects - Gajda	4	<1%	37 (37–39)
5	Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli	5	<1%	30 (30–30)
6	Spartans - Savage	6	<1%	28 (28–28)
7	Northern Twisters - Weiand	7	<1%	18 (18–18)
8	Bay State Waves Black	8	<1%	16 (14–17)
9	Bay State Waves Green	9	<1%	7 (6–9)

Game Log

Date	Matchup	Score	Pre-game Probability	Surprisal	Flag
Feb 22	Bay State Waves Black @ Boch Blazers - Busch	2–8	1% 97%	0.04
Feb 22	MC Selects - Gajda @ Bay State Waves Green	0–3	90% 5%	4.33	UPSET
Feb 22	Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Spartans - Savage	1–7	22% 67%	0.58
Feb 22	MC Selects - Gajda @ Bay State Waves Green	5–5	92% 4%	4.59	UPSET
Feb 21	Young Guns - Kent @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli	2–2	68% 20%	3.02	UPSET
Feb 21	MC Selects - Gajda @ Boch Blazers - Busch	1–8	5% 90%	0.16
Feb 21	Spartans - Savage @ Northern Twisters - Weiand	9–4	58% 30%	0.78
Feb 21	Bay State Waves Green @ Providence (North) - Bradley	3–13	0% 99%	0.02
Feb 15	Bay State Waves Green @ Boch Blazers - Busch	1–10	0% 99%	0.01
Feb 15	Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Young Guns - Kent	1–3	7% 85%	0.24
Feb 15	Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Spartans - Savage	5–7	51% 38%	1.40
Feb 15	Boch Blazers - Busch @ Bay State Waves Green	11–1	99% 0%	0.02
Feb 15	MC Selects - Gajda @ Bay State Waves Black	4–2	76% 14%	0.39
Feb 14	Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Bay State Waves Black	6–2	63% 24%	0.67
Feb 14	Northern Twisters - Weiand @ MC Selects - Gajda	2–4	11% 81%	0.31
Feb 14	Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Bay State Waves Black	6–3	62% 26%	0.70
Feb 14	Young Guns - Kent @ Spartans - Savage	5–3	78% 13%	0.35
Feb 08	Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Northern Twisters - Weiand	3–8	67% 21%	2.27
Feb 08	Bay State Waves Black @ Spartans - Savage	2–2	25% 65%	3.21	UPSET
Feb 07	Providence (North) - Bradley @ Northern Twisters - Weiand	7–1	92% 4%	0.12
Feb 07	Spartans - Savage @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli	4–3	29% 60%	1.77
Feb 01	Boch Blazers - Busch @ Young Guns - Kent	4–0	64% 22%	0.65
Feb 01	Northern Twisters - Weiand @ MC Selects - Gajda	2–5	10% 82%	0.28
Feb 01	Providence (North) - Bradley @ Spartans - Savage	3–9	92% 5%	4.45	UPSET
Feb 01	Bay State Waves Green @ MC Selects - Gajda	2–9	3% 93%	0.11
Feb 01	Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli	3–4	16% 74%	0.44
Jan 31	Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Boch Blazers - Busch	0–9	1% 97%	0.05
Jan 31	MC Selects - Gajda @ Spartans - Savage	8–5	68% 23%	0.55
Jan 31	MC Selects - Gajda @ Spartans - Savage	5–4	70% 22%	0.52
Jan 31	Young Guns - Kent @ Bay State Waves Green	8–3	92% 3%	0.12
Jan 31	Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Providence (North) - Bradley	2–10	11% 82%	0.28
Jan 25	Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Bay State Waves Green	0–0	61% 24%	2.72	UPSET
Jan 24	Providence (North) - Bradley @ Bay State Waves Green	6–0	98% 1%	0.03
Jan 24	Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Young Guns - Kent	1–2	6% 87%	0.21
Jan 24	Bay State Waves Black @ Spartans - Savage	5–6	28% 61%	0.71
Jan 24	Boch Blazers - Busch @ MC Selects - Gajda	4–3	86% 8%	0.22
Jan 24	Providence (North) - Bradley @ Bay State Waves Green	11–1	97% 1%	0.04
Jan 24	Bay State Waves Black @ Spartans - Savage	1–5	30% 59%	0.77
Jan 18	Providence (North) - Bradley @ Young Guns - Kent	1–4	49% 37%	1.44
Jan 17	Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Young Guns - Kent	0–2	19% 70%	0.53
Jan 17	Providence (North) - Bradley @ Boch Blazers - Busch	1–7	25% 63%	0.67
Jan 11	Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Spartans - Savage	4–8	29% 60%	0.74
Jan 11	MC Selects - Gajda @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli	5–2	46% 42%	1.13
Jan 11	Boch Blazers - Busch @ Bay State Waves Green	12–3	98% 1%	0.03
Jan 11	Bay State Waves Black @ Young Guns - Kent	3–2	7% 87%	3.93	UPSET
Jan 10	Spartans - Savage @ Bay State Waves Black	8–9	55% 33%	1.60
Jan 10	Providence (North) - Bradley @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli	3–5	81% 12%	3.08	UPSET
Jan 10	Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Bay State Waves Black	4–4	40% 44%	2.65
Jan 10	Young Guns - Kent @ Boch Blazers - Busch	0–5	22% 64%	0.64
Jan 10	Bay State Waves Green @ MC Selects - Gajda	6–11	4% 91%	0.14
Jan 04	Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Young Guns - Kent	1–5	17% 73%	0.46
Jan 04	Bay State Waves Black @ Northern Twisters - Weiand	9–3	31% 53%	1.69
Jan 04	Boch Blazers - Busch @ Northern Twisters - Weiand	8–5	94% 3%	0.10
Jan 04	MC Selects - Gajda @ Providence (North) - Bradley	3–8	12% 81%	0.30
Jan 04	Bay State Waves Green @ Spartans - Savage	2–6	11% 81%	0.31
Jan 03	Spartans - Savage @ Boch Blazers - Busch	4–11	1% 97%	0.04
Jan 03	Bay State Waves Black @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli	4–7	13% 78%	0.35
Jan 03	Providence (North) - Bradley @ Young Guns - Kent	4–1	48% 39%	1.07
Dec 28	Bay State Waves Green @ Boch Blazers - Busch	0–10	1% 98%	0.03
Dec 28	Providence (North) - Bradley @ Bay State Waves Black	8–2	94% 3%	0.09
Dec 28	Providence (North) - Bradley @ Bay State Waves Black	11–2	92% 4%	0.11
Dec 28	Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli	4–0	13% 78%	2.90	UPSET
Dec 27	Bay State Waves Black @ Bay State Waves Green	5–2	48% 33%	1.07
Dec 27	Providence (North) - Bradley @ Northern Twisters - Weiand	8–2	92% 4%	0.13
Dec 27	Boch Blazers - Busch @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli	8–3	83% 10%	0.27
Dec 21	Young Guns - Kent @ Bay State Waves Black	6–0	85% 7%	0.24
Dec 21	Bay State Waves Green @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli	2–4	6% 87%	0.19
Dec 21	Boch Blazers - Busch @ Providence (North) - Bradley	7–5	57% 30%	0.81
Dec 20	Young Guns - Kent @ Boch Blazers - Busch	1–4	22% 64%	0.64
Dec 20	Young Guns - Kent @ Boch Blazers - Busch	2–3	22% 65%	0.62
Dec 20	Bay State Waves Black @ MC Selects - Gajda	0–10	17% 73%	0.46
Dec 20	Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Providence (North) - Bradley	2–10	16% 76%	0.40
Dec 20	Spartans - Savage @ Northern Twisters - Weiand	5–5	56% 32%	3.04	UPSET
Dec 14	Bay State Waves Black @ Providence (North) - Bradley	4–10	5% 90%	0.15
Dec 14	MC Selects - Gajda @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli	10–4	28% 61%	1.81
Dec 14	Boch Blazers - Busch @ Spartans - Savage	10–1	93% 4%	0.10
Dec 14	Bay State Waves Green @ Northern Twisters - Weiand	4–6	29% 53%	0.92
Dec 13	Providence (North) - Bradley @ MC Selects - Gajda	11–11	80% 13%	3.70	UPSET
Dec 13	Bay State Waves Black @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli	2–11	20% 68%	0.56
Dec 07	Bay State Waves Black @ Boch Blazers - Busch	1–10	8% 84%	0.26
Dec 07	MC Selects - Gajda @ Northern Twisters - Weiand	3–4	73% 17%	2.56	UPSET
Dec 07	MC Selects - Gajda @ Young Guns - Kent	4–4	15% 76%	3.48	UPSET
Dec 07	Spartans - Savage @ Providence (North) - Bradley	4–12	4% 92%	0.11
Dec 07	Bay State Waves Green @ Northern Twisters - Weiand	0–9	46% 35%	1.52
Dec 06	Bay State Waves Green @ Spartans - Savage	7–11	23% 63%	0.66
Dec 06	Boch Blazers - Busch @ Providence (North) - Bradley	4–2	48% 38%	1.05
Dec 06	Spartans - Savage @ Bay State Waves Green	3–1	56% 30%	0.85
Dec 06	Bay State Waves Black @ MC Selects - Gajda	5–6	36% 48%	1.05
Dec 06	Young Guns - Kent @ Northern Twisters - Weiand	5–0	91% 4%	0.13
Nov 30	Young Guns - Kent @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli	4–3	62% 27%	0.70
Nov 30	Boch Blazers - Busch @ Bay State Waves Black	8–3	70% 15%	0.51
Nov 30	Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Bay State Waves Green	4–3	26% 54%	1.92
Nov 29	Young Guns - Kent @ Bay State Waves Green	4–1	81% 9%	0.30
Nov 29	Young Guns - Kent @ Bay State Waves Black	4–3	62% 22%	0.68
Nov 29	Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Boch Blazers - Busch	1–11	20% 70%	0.52
Nov 23	Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Bay State Waves Green	3–5	81% 10%	3.35	UPSET
Nov 23	Young Guns - Kent @ Providence (North) - Bradley	3–7	38% 50%	1.01
Nov 23	Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Bay State Waves Green	7–2	76% 13%	0.39
Nov 22	Bay State Waves Black @ Northern Twisters - Weiand	2–4	75% 10%	3.27	UPSET
Nov 22	Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ MC Selects - Gajda	3–3	62% 27%	3.26	UPSET
Nov 22	Spartans - Savage @ Young Guns - Kent	8–10	4% 92%	0.13
Nov 16	MC Selects - Gajda @ Boch Blazers - Busch	5–8	10% 83%	0.27
Nov 16	Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Providence (North) - Bradley	3–13	2% 96%	0.06
Nov 16	Bay State Waves Green @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli	1–11	28% 55%	0.87
Nov 15	Spartans - Savage @ Northern Twisters - Weiand	5–3	70% 19%	0.52
Nov 15	Boch Blazers - Busch @ Bay State Waves Black	7–0	32% 46%	1.64
Nov 15	Providence (North) - Bradley @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli	9–4	64% 26%	0.65
Nov 09	Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Boch Blazers - Busch	1–7	3% 92%	0.13
Nov 09	Spartans - Savage @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli	1–8	18% 74%	0.43
Nov 08	Spartans - Savage @ MC Selects - Gajda	8–9	27% 63%	0.67
Nov 08	Boch Blazers - Busch @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli	7–6	63% 24%	0.66
Nov 08	Spartans - Savage @ MC Selects - Gajda	4–14	45% 43%	1.23
Nov 08	Bay State Waves Green @ Bay State Waves Black	1–8	30% 32%	1.62
Nov 08	Young Guns - Kent @ Northern Twisters - Weiand	9–1	93% 3%	0.11
Nov 02	Spartans - Savage @ Providence (North) - Bradley	4–13	11% 83%	0.28
Nov 01	Spartans - Savage @ Young Guns - Kent	8–12	8% 84%	0.24
Oct 26	Providence (North) - Bradley @ Boch Blazers - Busch	6–7	38% 46%	1.13
Oct 26	MC Selects - Gajda @ Young Guns - Kent	4–13	9% 83%	0.27
Oct 25	Boch Blazers - Busch @ MC Selects - Gajda	6–4	75% 13%	0.42
Oct 25	Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Providence (North) - Bradley	0–9	4% 91%	0.14
Oct 19	Boch Blazers - Busch @ Providence (North) - Bradley	3–2	44% 40%	1.20
Oct 18	Spartans - Savage @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli	4–8	28% 61%	0.72
Oct 18	Providence (North) - Bradley @ MC Selects - Gajda	6–4	81% 12%	0.31
Oct 11	MC Selects - Gajda @ Northern Twisters - Weiand	5–1	51% 33%	0.98
Oct 05	Boch Blazers - Busch @ Northern Twisters - Weiand	7–0	62% 20%	0.70
Oct 04	Providence (North) - Bradley @ MC Selects - Gajda	3–2	87% 8%	0.20
Oct 04	Northern Twisters - Weiand @ Young Guns - Kent	0–4	50/50	—
Oct 04	Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Boch Blazers - Busch	1–4	38% 48%	1.08
Sep 28	MC Selects - Gajda @ Northern Twisters - Weiand	3–3	50/50	—
Sep 28	Providence (North) - Bradley @ Spartans - Savage	3–12	97% 1%	6.33	UPSET
Sep 27	Young Guns - Kent @ Providence (North) - Bradley	5–6	21% 66%	0.60
Sep 27	Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Northern Twisters - Weiand	6–3	50/50	—
Sep 21	Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Spartans - Savage	5–2	84% 10% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	0.25
Sep 21	Boch Blazers - Busch @ Young Guns - Kent	6–2	50/50	—
Sep 20	Boch Blazers - Busch @ MC Selects - Gajda	3–5	50/50	—
Sep 20	Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ Providence (North) - Bradley	5–12	50/50	—
Sep 14	Young Guns - Kent @ Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli	8–2	50/50	—
Sep 13	Young Guns - Kent @ MC Selects - Gajda	12–2	62% 22% ⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample	0.68
Sep 13	Providence (North) - Bradley @ Spartans - Savage	11–2	50/50	—
Sep 07	Young Guns - Kent @ Spartans - Savage	13–3	50/50	—
Sep 07	MC Selects - Gajda @ Providence (North) - Bradley	2–12	50/50	—
Sep 06	Minuteman Sparks - Cardarelli @ MC Selects - Gajda	14–6	50/50	—
Aug 01	Spartans - Savage @ Boch Blazers - Busch	0–0	50/50	—
Aug 01	Young Guns - Kent @ MC Selects - Gajda	0–3	50/50	—
Aug 01	Bay State Waves Black @ Young Guns - Kent	0–0	50/50	—
Aug 01	MC Selects - Gajda @ Young Guns - Kent	0–0	50/50	—
Aug 01	Bay State Waves Black @ Providence (North) - Bradley	0–0	50/50	—
Aug 01	Bay State Waves Green @ Providence (North) - Bradley	0–0	50/50	—
Aug 01	Bay State Waves Black @ Bay State Waves Green	0–0	50/50	—
Aug 01	Bay State Waves Green @ Young Guns - Kent	0–0	50/50	—
Aug 01	Bay State Waves Green @ Bay State Waves Black	0–0	50/50	—