The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Bulldogs Hockey Club 9 6 1 2 32 17 14 —
2 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson 9 6 3 0 43 24 12 —
3 Boston Jr Eagles 10 5 3 2 26 29 12 —
4 Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum 8 5 2 1 34 23 11 —
5 South Shore Kings 2015 Robson 8 4 3 1 29 23 9 —
6 Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman 9 4 4 1 36 29 9 —
7 IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn 12 4 7 1 41 48 9 —
8 Minuteman Flames Agostinelli 6 2 2 2 15 17 6 —
9 IHC 15 - Dilly 7 0 5 2 16 32 2 —
10 NorthStars - Conley 8 0 6 2 14 44 2 —

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson 1 (1–3) 50% 52 (44–58)
2 Bulldogs Hockey Club 2 (1–5) 27% 49 (41–56)
3 Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman 4 (2–7) 8% 43 (34–51)
4 Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum 4 (1–8) 10% 42 (31–53)
5 South Shore Kings 2015 Robson 5 (2–7) 4% 39 (31–48)
6 Boston Jr Eagles 5 (3–8) 1% 39 (31–45)
7 Minuteman Flames Agostinelli 6 (3–8) <1% 36 (28–44)
8 IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn 7 (4–8) <1% 32 (25–42)
9 IHC 15 - Dilly 9 (8–10) <1% 19 (12–26)
10 NorthStars - Conley 10 (9–10) <1% 11 (6–19)
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Sep 05 Minuteman Flames Agostinelli @ IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn 5–3 50/50 —
Sep 12 Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman @ IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn 8–4 50/50 —
Sep 12 NorthStars - Conley @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum 2–7 50/50 —
Sep 12 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–2 50/50 —
Sep 13 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson @ Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman 7–5 50/50 —
Sep 13 IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn @ NorthStars - Conley 4–2 50/50 —
Sep 19 Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman @ Boston Jr Eagles 2–1 50/50 —
Sep 19 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson @ NorthStars - Conley 9–2 50/50 —
Sep 19 IHC 15 - Dilly @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum 2–5 50/50 —
Sep 20 South Shore Kings 2015 Robson @ IHC 15 - Dilly 7–2 50/50 —
Sep 20 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 26 NorthStars - Conley @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–1
17% 69%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
2.89 UPSET
Sep 26 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson @ IHC 15 - Dilly 5–2 50/50 —
Sep 26 Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum 3–1 50/50 —
Sep 26 Minuteman Flames Agostinelli @ South Shore Kings 2015 Robson 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 27 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 2015 Robson 4–3 50/50 —
Sep 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson 3–2
19% 66%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
2.39
Sep 27 Minuteman Flames Agostinelli @ IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn 4–3 50/50 —
Oct 03 Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum @ NorthStars - Conley 7–1
76% 13%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.39
Oct 03 IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–6
30% 52%
0.94
Oct 03 Minuteman Flames Agostinelli @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 0–0
27% 58%
2.74 UPSET
Oct 04 NorthStars - Conley @ Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman 2–11
5% 89%
0.17
Oct 04 IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum 7–1
15% 75%
2.75 UPSET
Oct 04 Boston Jr Eagles @ IHC 15 - Dilly 4–2
61% 22%
0.71
Oct 10 IHC 15 - Dilly @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 1–4
8% 84%
0.25
Oct 10 Minuteman Flames Agostinelli @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum 1–4
51% 31%
1.70
Oct 10 South Shore Kings 2015 Robson @ IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn 2–3
54% 33%
1.61
Oct 11 IHC 15 - Dilly @ NorthStars - Conley 2–2
55% 30%
2.74 UPSET
Oct 11 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn 4–3
57% 28%
0.81
Oct 11 South Shore Kings 2015 Robson @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson 2–4
31% 55%
0.87
Oct 17 South Shore Kings 2015 Robson @ NorthStars - Conley 3–2
82% 10%
0.29
Oct 17 IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson 3–9
23% 66%
0.61
Oct 17 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bulldogs Hockey Club 1–7
28% 52%
0.93
Oct 17 Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum @ IHC 15 - Dilly 5–5
71% 16%
2.98 UPSET
Oct 18 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson @ Minuteman Flames Agostinelli 4–2
56% 28%
0.82
Oct 18 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum 2–4
61% 24%
2.04
Oct 18 IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn @ Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman 5–3
14% 78%
2.87 UPSET
Oct 18 IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn @ Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman 0–0
14% 78%
3.54 UPSET
Oct 24 Boston Jr Eagles @ IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn 4–2
36% 48%
1.49
Oct 24 Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman @ South Shore Kings 2015 Robson 3–6
53% 31%
1.67
Oct 25 Boston Jr Eagles @ IHC 15 - Dilly Upcoming
59% 24%
—
Oct 25 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman 3–1
49% 35%
—
Oct 25 South Shore Kings 2015 Robson @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson 3–2
25% 61%
—
Oct 31 Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman @ IHC 15 - Dilly Upcoming
74% 15%
—
Oct 31 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson @ IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn Upcoming
68% 20%
—
Oct 31 Minuteman Flames Agostinelli @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
40% 39%
—
Oct 31 Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum @ NorthStars - Conley Upcoming
82% 10%
—
Oct 31 South Shore Kings 2015 Robson @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
28% 56%
—
Nov 01 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum Upcoming
59% 27%
—
Nov 01 NorthStars - Conley @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
4% 91%
—
Nov 01 Minuteman Flames Agostinelli @ Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman Upcoming
32% 52%
—
Nov 01 South Shore Kings 2015 Robson @ IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn Upcoming
50% 35%
—
Nov 07 Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum @ South Shore Kings 2015 Robson Upcoming
37% 47%
—
Nov 07 Boston Jr Eagles @ NorthStars - Conley Upcoming
73% 14%
—
Nov 07 Minuteman Flames Agostinelli @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson Upcoming
22% 64%
—
Nov 08 Minuteman Flames Agostinelli @ South Shore Kings 2015 Robson Upcoming
34% 48%
—
Nov 08 NorthStars - Conley @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson Upcoming
2% 95%
—
Nov 14 Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum Upcoming
46% 39%
—
Nov 14 Minuteman Flames Agostinelli @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
40% 39%
—
Nov 14 IHC 15 - Dilly @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
9% 83%
—
Nov 15 Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum @ Minuteman Flames Agostinelli Upcoming
41% 42%
—
Nov 15 NorthStars - Conley @ South Shore Kings 2015 Robson Upcoming
7% 86%
—
Nov 15 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman Upcoming
49% 35%
—
Nov 15 IHC 15 - Dilly @ IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn Upcoming
20% 67%
—
Nov 21 Minuteman Flames Agostinelli @ NorthStars - Conley Upcoming
76% 12%
—
Nov 21 IHC 15 - Dilly @ South Shore Kings 2015 Robson Upcoming
14% 74%
—
Nov 21 Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
50% 33%
—
Nov 21 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson Upcoming
37% 48%
—
Nov 22 Minuteman Flames Agostinelli @ Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman Upcoming
32% 52%
—
Nov 22 IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
19% 68%
—
Nov 22 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson @ South Shore Kings 2015 Robson Upcoming
56% 30%
—
Nov 22 IHC 15 - Dilly @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
20% 64%
—
Nov 28 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
62% 23%
—
Nov 28 IHC 15 - Dilly @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum Upcoming
16% 73%
—
Nov 28 IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn @ NorthStars - Conley Upcoming
78% 13%
—
Nov 28 South Shore Kings 2015 Robson @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
28% 56%
—
Nov 29 Minuteman Flames Agostinelli @ IHC 15 - Dilly Upcoming
63% 21%
—
Nov 29 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 2015 Robson Upcoming
31% 51%
—
Nov 29 NorthStars - Conley @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
4% 91%
—
Nov 29 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum Upcoming
59% 27%
—
Dec 05 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ IHC 15 - Dilly Upcoming
79% 11%
—
Dec 05 Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson Upcoming
27% 59%
—
Dec 05 Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum @ Minuteman Flames Agostinelli Upcoming
41% 42%
—
Dec 05 NorthStars - Conley @ South Shore Kings 2015 Robson Upcoming
7% 86%
—
Dec 05 IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
37% 46%
—
Dec 06 IHC 15 - Dilly @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson Upcoming
6% 88%
—
Dec 06 NorthStars - Conley @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
11% 77%
—
Dec 06 Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum @ IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn Upcoming
48% 37%
—
Dec 06 South Shore Kings 2015 Robson @ Minuteman Flames Agostinelli Upcoming
43% 39%
—
Dec 06 Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
30% 54%
—
Dec 12 Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman @ NorthStars - Conley Upcoming
86% 7%
—
Dec 12 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn Upcoming
63% 23%
—
Dec 12 Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson Upcoming
23% 65%
—
Dec 12 South Shore Kings 2015 Robson @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
46% 36%
—
Dec 12 IHC 15 - Dilly @ Minuteman Flames Agostinelli Upcoming
18% 68%
—
Dec 13 NorthStars - Conley @ IHC 15 - Dilly Upcoming
24% 61%
—
Dec 13 IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson Upcoming
16% 74%
—
Dec 13 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
22% 61%
—
Dec 13 Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman @ South Shore Kings 2015 Robson Upcoming
43% 42%
—
Dec 13 Minuteman Flames Agostinelli @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
24% 58%
—
Dec 19 NorthStars - Conley @ IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn Upcoming
10% 82%
—
Dec 19 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson @ Minuteman Flames Agostinelli Upcoming
59% 26%
—
Dec 19 Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum @ South Shore Kings 2015 Robson Upcoming
37% 47%
—
Dec 19 Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman @ IHC 15 - Dilly Upcoming
74% 15%
—
Dec 20 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 2015 Robson Upcoming
51% 32%
—
Dec 20 IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn @ Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman Upcoming
26% 61%
—
Dec 20 Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum @ IHC 15 - Dilly Upcoming
68% 19%
—
Dec 26 NorthStars - Conley @ Minuteman Flames Agostinelli Upcoming
10% 80%
—
Dec 26 Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
26% 59%
—
Dec 27 Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman @ Minuteman Flames Agostinelli Upcoming
46% 37%
—
Dec 27 IHC 15 - Dilly @ IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn Upcoming
20% 67%
—
Dec 27 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
42% 42%
—
Jan 02 Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
44% 38%
—
Jan 02 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames Agostinelli Upcoming
54% 28%
—
Jan 02 IHC 15 - Dilly @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson Upcoming
6% 88%
—
Jan 02 IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn @ South Shore Kings 2015 Robson Upcoming
30% 56%
—
Jan 02 Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman @ NorthStars - Conley Upcoming
86% 7%
—
Jan 02 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames Agostinelli Upcoming
54% 28%
—
Jan 03 IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn @ Minuteman Flames Agostinelli Upcoming
34% 50%
—
Jan 03 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson @ NorthStars - Conley Upcoming
93% 3%
—
Jan 03 Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum @ Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman Upcoming
34% 51%
—
Jan 03 South Shore Kings 2015 Robson @ IHC 15 - Dilly Upcoming
70% 18%
—
Jan 09 Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman @ Minuteman Flames Agostinelli Upcoming
46% 37%
—
Jan 09 South Shore Kings 2015 Robson @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
46% 36%
—
Jan 09 Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson Upcoming
23% 65%
—
Jan 10 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames Agostinelli Upcoming
34% 45%
—
Jan 10 South Shore Kings 2015 Robson @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum Upcoming
42% 42%
—
Jan 10 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson @ Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman Upcoming
54% 33%
—
Jan 16 Boston Jr Eagles @ NorthStars - Conley Upcoming
73% 14%
—
Jan 17 IHC 15 - Dilly @ NorthStars - Conley Upcoming
56% 28%
—
Jan 23 IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum Upcoming
32% 54%
—
Jan 23 South Shore Kings 2015 Robson @ Minuteman Flames Agostinelli Upcoming
43% 39%
—
Jan 23 NorthStars - Conley @ Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman Upcoming
5% 89%
—
Jan 23 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson @ IHC 15 - Dilly Upcoming
84% 8%
—
Jan 24 Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
26% 59%
—
Jan 24 IHC 15 - Dilly @ Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman Upcoming
12% 78%
—
Jan 24 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson @ South Shore Kings 2015 Robson Upcoming
56% 30%
—
Jan 24 NorthStars - Conley @ Minuteman Flames Agostinelli Upcoming
10% 80%
—
Jan 30 IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn @ IHC 15 - Dilly Upcoming
62% 25%
—
Jan 30 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ NorthStars - Conley Upcoming
89% 5%
—
Jan 30 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 2015 Robson Upcoming
31% 51%
—
Jan 30 Minuteman Flames Agostinelli @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum Upcoming
37% 46%
—
Jan 30 Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson Upcoming
27% 59%
—
Jan 31 South Shore Kings 2015 Robson @ Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman Upcoming
36% 48%
—
Jan 31 NorthStars - Conley @ IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn Upcoming
10% 82%
—
Jan 31 IHC 15 - Dilly @ Minuteman Flames Agostinelli Upcoming
18% 68%
—
Jan 31 Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
44% 38%
—
Feb 06 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames Agostinelli Upcoming
34% 45%
—
Feb 06 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson @ IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn Upcoming
68% 20%
—
Feb 06 IHC 15 - Dilly @ South Shore Kings 2015 Robson Upcoming
14% 74%
—
Feb 06 NorthStars - Conley @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum Upcoming
7% 85%
—
Feb 06 Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
30% 54%
—
Feb 07 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson Upcoming
19% 67%
—
Feb 07 IHC 15 - Dilly @ Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman Upcoming
12% 78%
—
Feb 07 South Shore Kings 2015 Robson @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum Upcoming
42% 42%
—
Feb 07 IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
19% 68%
—
Feb 13 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ NorthStars - Conley Upcoming
89% 5%
—
Feb 13 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum Upcoming
33% 49%
—
Feb 13 IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn @ IHC 15 - Dilly Upcoming
62% 25%
—
Feb 14 Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum @ IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn Upcoming
48% 37%
—
Feb 14 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman Upcoming
29% 55%
—
Feb 20 Boston Jr Eagles @ IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn Upcoming
41% 42%
—
Feb 20 Minuteman Flames Agostinelli @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson Upcoming
22% 64%
—
Feb 20 South Shore Kings 2015 Robson @ NorthStars - Conley Upcoming
82% 9%
—
Feb 20 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ IHC 15 - Dilly Upcoming
79% 11%
—
Feb 20 Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum @ Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman Upcoming
34% 51%
—
Feb 21 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum Upcoming
54% 30%
—
Feb 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman Upcoming
29% 55%
—
Feb 21 IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn @ South Shore Kings 2015 Robson Upcoming
30% 56%
—
Feb 21 Minuteman Flames Agostinelli @ IHC 15 - Dilly Upcoming
63% 21%
—
Feb 21 NorthStars - Conley @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson Upcoming
2% 95%
—
Feb 27 IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn @ Minuteman Flames Agostinelli Upcoming
34% 50%
—
Feb 27 Bulldogs Hockey Club @ Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson Upcoming
37% 48%
—
Feb 27 South Shore Kings 2015 Robson @ Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman Upcoming
36% 48%
—
Feb 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2015 Platinum Upcoming
33% 49%
—
Feb 27 NorthStars - Conley @ IHC 15 - Dilly Upcoming
24% 61%
—
Feb 28 IHC 15 - Dilly @ Boston Jr Eagles Upcoming
20% 64%
—
Feb 28 Boston Jr. Terriers (White) - Hoffman @ IHC West 2015 - Fairbarn Upcoming
55% 32%
—
Feb 28 Minuteman Flames Agostinelli @ NorthStars - Conley Upcoming
76% 12%
—
Feb 28 Boston Jr. Terriers (Red) - Johnson @ Bulldogs Hockey Club Upcoming
42% 42%
—