TOURNAMENT
FINAL
Pool A · Feb 28, 2026
Minuteman Flames
6–8
Top Gun
Current model vs. Result
169 games in sample
Calculated from the current model; not a stored pre-game forecast
Minuteman Flames 16.6%
Draw 10.2%
73.2% Top Gun
Favored
Draw
Underdog
As expected
0.45 bits
Lower predicted probability means a more surprising result.
This band describes outcome probability; the UPSET badge separately identifies an upset winner.
Score Probability Matrix
Probability of each scoreline — rows = Minuteman Flames, columns = Top Gun.
Scores of 0–7 cover 100.0% of outcomes.