The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Top Gun 36 27 6 3 202 93 57 23%
2 Boston Jr Terriers 37 24 6 7 177 104 55 17%
3 Islanders Hockey Club 36 26 8 2 177 128 54 12%
4 Minuteman Flames 37 18 15 4 138 142 40 38%
5 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 36 17 17 2 122 111 36 8%
6 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 16 8 2 6 61 36 22 —
7 Boston Jr Eagles 37 9 26 2 104 161 20 2%
8 Providence Capitals - Boulis 37 6 28 3 81 178 15 0%
9 South Shore Kings 36 4 31 1 79 188 9 0%

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Top Gun 1 100% 59 (59–59)
2 Islanders Hockey Club 2 (2–3) <1% 56 (54–56)
3 Boston Jr Terriers 3 (2–3) <1% 55 (55–55)
4 Minuteman Flames 4 <1% 40 (40–40)
5 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 5 <1% 36 (36–38)
6 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 6 <1% 22 (22–22)
7 Boston Jr Eagles 7 <1% 20 (20–20)
8 Providence Capitals - Boulis 8 <1% 15 (15–15)
9 South Shore Kings 9 <1% 9 (9–9)

Game Log

Oldest first
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 01 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club Upcoming 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–1 50/50 —
Sep 06 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 5–3 50/50 —
Sep 06 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 1–3 50/50 —
Sep 07 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 1–4 50/50 —
Sep 13 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 9–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Terriers @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 3–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 4–0 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 4–1 50/50 —
Sep 14 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 4–2 50/50 —
Sep 14 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 6–7 50/50 —
Sep 14 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 5–1
80% 11%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.33
Sep 20 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Top Gun 4–11 50/50 —
Sep 20 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–3 50/50 —
Sep 20 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Top Gun 1–10
10% 82%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.28
Sep 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 2–0
48% 36%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
1.05
Sep 21 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 6–3
76% 16%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.41
Sep 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 1–3 50/50 —
Sep 27 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 4–6
25% 60%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.73
Sep 27 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–7
19% 70%
0.52
Sep 27 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 6–4
55% 28%
0.86
Sep 27 Boston Jr Eagles @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 0–5
20% 64%
0.64
Sep 28 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 4–4
24% 62%
2.82 UPSET
Sep 28 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–2
56% 32%
2.95 UPSET
Sep 28 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 6–3
80% 12%
0.32
Oct 04 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Top Gun 3–6
4% 91%
0.13
Oct 04 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 5–8
52% 34%
1.54
Oct 05 Islanders Hockey Club @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 4–2
42% 45%
1.27
Oct 05 Top Gun @ South Shore Kings 10–0
93% 3%
0.11
Oct 11 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 2–7
22% 65%
0.62
Oct 11 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–4
49% 35%
1.04
Oct 11 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–3
57% 29%
0.81
Oct 12 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–5
6% 89%
0.17
Oct 12 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Boston Jr Terriers 1–6
15% 75%
0.41
Oct 12 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–1
57% 26%
0.80
Oct 18 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–7
92% 4%
4.81 UPSET
Oct 18 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 5–1
12% 79%
3.04 UPSET
Oct 19 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 7–2
75% 16%
0.42
Oct 19 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–2
68% 19%
0.56
Oct 25 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 5–1
71% 18%
0.50
Oct 25 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–4
34% 52%
0.94
Oct 26 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ South Shore Kings 3–4
66% 21%
2.26
Oct 26 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–3
25% 60%
0.75
Oct 26 Islanders Hockey Club @ Minuteman Flames 5–2
56% 31%
0.83
Nov 01 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 1–1
40% 44%
2.68
Nov 01 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 4–2
63% 23%
0.66
Nov 01 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 2–1
19% 71%
2.39
Nov 01 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ South Shore Kings 6–0
86% 6%
0.22
Nov 01 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ South Shore Kings 6–1
90% 4%
0.15
Nov 02 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Minuteman Flames 3–3
70% 17%
2.99 UPSET
Nov 02 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 2–4
68% 19%
2.37
Nov 02 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Minuteman Flames 4–1
65% 21%
0.62
Nov 02 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–2
72% 16%
0.48
Nov 02 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 5–1
90% 4%
0.16
Nov 08 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 4–2
51% 32%
0.97
Nov 08 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–7
9% 83%
0.27
Nov 08 Islanders Hockey Club @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 2–8
28% 57%
0.82
Nov 08 Islanders Hockey Club @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 3–3
20% 68%
2.97 UPSET
Nov 09 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–5
11% 77%
0.37
Nov 09 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 2–3
49% 35%
1.52
Nov 09 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Islanders Hockey Club 2–3
10% 82%
0.28
Nov 09 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Minuteman Flames 0–1
47% 37%
1.44
Nov 15 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 1–2
65% 22%
2.19
Nov 15 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–6
18% 69%
0.53
Nov 15 Minuteman Flames @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–5
27% 60%
0.73
Nov 15 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 6–0
60% 25%
0.73
Nov 15 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–2
48% 38%
2.81
Nov 16 Islanders Hockey Club @ South Shore Kings 10–4
88% 6%
0.18
Nov 16 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 2–3
72% 18%
2.52 UPSET
Nov 16 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 1–3
21% 64%
0.63
Nov 22 Boston Jr Terriers @ South Shore Kings 3–0
91% 4%
0.14
Nov 22 Minuteman Flames @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 3–6
33% 51%
0.97
Nov 22 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 4–1
47% 37%
1.08
Nov 22 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 1–4
26% 62%
0.70
Nov 23 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–2
31% 55%
1.68
Nov 23 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 6–5
67% 21%
0.58
Nov 23 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Top Gun 0–4
24% 62%
0.68
Nov 29 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 8–5
79% 12%
0.33
Nov 29 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 6–0
80% 12%
0.32
Nov 30 South Shore Kings @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 3–1
24% 63%
2.08
Nov 30 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 8–6
57% 29%
0.81
Dec 06 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Minuteman Flames 2–4
14% 77%
0.38
Dec 06 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 1–7
7% 86%
0.22
Dec 06 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–5
33% 52%
0.94
Dec 07 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–3
12% 79%
3.46 UPSET
Dec 07 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 6–4
14% 75%
2.86 UPSET
Dec 07 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 4–4
26% 59%
2.82 UPSET
Dec 13 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–8
4% 92%
0.13
Dec 13 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 1–3
17% 71%
0.49
Dec 13 Islanders Hockey Club @ Top Gun 5–9
24% 64%
0.64
Dec 13 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 3–8
24% 63%
0.67
Dec 14 Top Gun @ Minuteman Flames 6–2
71% 18%
0.49
Dec 14 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–5
45% 41%
1.30
Dec 14 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ South Shore Kings 1–5
55% 30%
1.71
Dec 14 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr Eagles 5–3
59% 26%
0.76
Dec 20 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 1–3
82% 10%
3.29 UPSET
Dec 20 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 2–5
2% 97%
0.05
Dec 20 Boston Jr Terriers @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 4–1
51% 33%
0.97
Dec 20 South Shore Kings @ Top Gun 4–7
2% 96%
0.06
Dec 21 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Minuteman Flames 2–3
16% 74%
0.44
Dec 21 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 6–5
33% 53%
1.61
Dec 21 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ South Shore Kings 6–3
74% 15%
0.43
Dec 21 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 7–2
84% 8%
0.24
Jan 03 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 4–3
68% 20%
0.57
Jan 03 Boston Jr Terriers @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–2
74% 15%
0.43
Jan 03 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–7
6% 89%
0.16
Jan 04 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ South Shore Kings 1–1
50% 35%
2.72 UPSET
Jan 04 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 3–2
56% 30%
0.82
Jan 04 Boston Jr Eagles @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 1–2
22% 64%
0.64
Jan 10 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 2–0
86% 7%
0.22
Jan 10 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Top Gun 2–7
17% 71%
0.50
Jan 10 Minuteman Flames @ South Shore Kings 2–0
78% 13%
0.36
Jan 10 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 2–2
85% 7%
3.63 UPSET
Jan 11 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–10
5% 90%
0.16
Jan 11 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun 2–7
37% 47%
1.10
Jan 11 Islanders Hockey Club @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 6–0
77% 13%
0.37
Jan 11 Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers @ Top Gun 5–2
30% 55%
1.73
Jan 11 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Eagles 6–4
59% 27%
0.75
Jan 24 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 1–2
22% 65%
0.63
Jan 24 Top Gun @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 8–1
90% 5%
0.15
Jan 24 Boston Jr Terriers @ Minuteman Flames 6–6
58% 28%
2.86 UPSET
Jan 25 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 4–6
26% 60%
0.75
Jan 25 Top Gun @ Islanders Hockey Club 4–3
62% 26%
0.70
Jan 31 Boston Jr Terriers @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 6–1
81% 10%
0.30
Jan 31 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 3–6
12% 79%
0.34
Jan 31 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–8
12% 78%
0.35
Jan 31 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 5–5
20% 66%
2.80 UPSET
Jan 31 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Mid Fairfield Jr Rangers 3–1
22% 64%
2.21
Feb 01 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 6–2
69% 19%
0.53
Feb 01 Boston Jr Terriers @ Islanders Hockey Club 6–7
43% 43%
1.22
Feb 01 Minuteman Flames @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 3–2
70% 18%
0.52
Feb 07 Top Gun @ Boston Jr Eagles 7–1
88% 6%
0.18
Feb 07 South Shore Kings @ Minuteman Flames 2–5
9% 83%
0.27
Feb 07 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Islanders Hockey Club 5–8
7% 86%
0.22
Feb 07 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–3
26% 60%
0.74
Feb 08 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 3–9
16% 71%
0.49
Feb 08 Boston Jr Eagles @ South Shore Kings 3–6
56% 29%
1.80
Feb 08 Boston Jr Terriers @ Top Gun 4–2
24% 64%
2.07
Feb 14 South Shore Kings @ Boston Jr Eagles 3–5
27% 58%
0.78
Feb 14 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–11
7% 86%
0.21
Feb 14 Boston Jr Eagles @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–7
10% 83%
0.28
Feb 15 Boston Jr Eagles @ Boston Jr Terriers 1–6
8% 84%
0.25
Feb 15 Providence Capitals - Boulis @ Islanders Hockey Club 1–5
6% 88%
0.19
Feb 21 Minuteman Flames @ Top Gun 2–7
12% 79%
0.34
Feb 21 Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite @ South Shore Kings 5–2
77% 13%
0.38
Feb 21 Islanders Hockey Club @ Boston Jr Terriers 2–9
34% 52%
0.94
Feb 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ Top Gun 3–6
4% 92%
0.12
Feb 21 South Shore Kings @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 1–3
10% 81%
0.30
Feb 21 Boston Jr Eagles @ Minuteman Flames 7–2
19% 69%
2.38
Feb 22 South Shore Kings @ Islanders Hockey Club 3–7
5% 91%
0.14
Feb 22 Minuteman Flames @ Boston Jr Terriers 3–3
17% 72%
3.20 UPSET
Feb 22 Top Gun @ Bay State Breakers 2016 Elite 5–3
69% 19%
0.54
Feb 22 Boston Jr Eagles @ Providence Capitals - Boulis 7–1
50% 34%
1.00