TOURNAMENT
FINAL
Pool A · Feb 28, 2026
Minuteman Sparks
1–11
Providence
Current model vs. Result
152 games in sample
Calculated from the current model; not a stored pre-game forecast
Minuteman Sparks 3.7%
Draw 3.4%
92.9% Providence
Favored
Draw
Underdog
As expected
0.11 bits
Lower predicted probability means a more surprising result.
This band describes outcome probability; the UPSET badge separately identifies an upset winner.
Score Probability Matrix
Probability of each scoreline — rows = Minuteman Sparks, columns = Providence.
Scores of 0–7 cover 100.0% of outcomes.