The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Team Merrimack 35 34 1 0 289 56 68 100%
2 Boston Jr Dogs 35 27 4 4 241 89 58 0%
3 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 33 21 8 4 194 91 46 0%
4 Young Guns 33 14 16 3 156 167 31 0%
5 Providence 35 13 17 5 174 200 31 0%
6 Team Boston 35 9 23 3 135 224 21 0%
7 South Shore Knights 34 5 26 3 115 250 13 0%
8 Minuteman Sparks 34 3 31 0 80 307 6 0%

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Team Merrimack 1 100% 68 (68–68)
2 Boston Jr Dogs 2 <1% 58 (58–58)
3 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 3 <1% 50 (48–50)
4 Young Guns 4 <1% 31 (31–33)
5 Providence 5 <1% 31 (31–31)
6 Team Boston 6 <1% 21 (21–21)
7 South Shore Knights 7 <1% 15 (13–15)
8 Minuteman Sparks 8 <1% 6 (6–8)

Game Log

Oldest first
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 01 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite Upcoming — —
Aug 01 Minuteman Sparks @ South Shore Knights Upcoming — —
Aug 01 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Young Guns Upcoming — —
Sep 06 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 11–1 50/50 —
Sep 07 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–10 50/50 —
Sep 13 Young Guns @ South Shore Knights 4–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Team Boston @ Team Merrimack 0–10 50/50 —
Sep 13 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 11–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Dogs @ Providence 8–5 50/50 —
Sep 14 Team Merrimack @ South Shore Knights 9–1 50/50 —
Sep 14 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Boston 4–7 50/50 —
Sep 20 Providence @ Young Guns 5–4 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack 4–7 50/50 —
Sep 20 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ South Shore Knights 10–1
84% 7%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.25
Sep 21 Minuteman Sparks @ Boston Jr Dogs 1–11
1% 98%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.03
Sep 21 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–7
16% 68%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.55
Sep 27 Minuteman Sparks @ Young Guns 4–3
9% 82%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
3.49 UPSET
Sep 27 Providence @ Team Boston 5–5 50/50 —
Sep 27 Boston Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–2
36% 50%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
2.87
Sep 27 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack 0–10
0% 98%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.02
Sep 28 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs 1–6
7% 86%
0.21
Sep 28 Team Boston @ South Shore Knights 6–5
61% 26%
0.71
Sep 28 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Providence 7–2
80% 11%
0.33
Oct 04 Providence @ South Shore Knights 5–3
78% 13%
0.35
Oct 04 Team Merrimack @ Young Guns 12–2
89% 5%
0.16
Oct 04 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 4–3
3% 93%
5.05 UPSET
Oct 05 Team Merrimack @ Providence 9–1
96% 2%
0.05
Oct 05 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ South Shore Knights 4–4
92% 3%
4.41 UPSET
Oct 05 Young Guns @ Team Boston 4–1
33% 52%
1.59
Oct 11 Team Merrimack @ Minuteman Sparks 11–2
100% 0%
0.01
Oct 11 Providence @ Team Boston 3–3
52% 36%
2.97
Oct 11 Boston Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–1
54% 32%
0.89
Oct 12 Minuteman Sparks @ Boston Jr Dogs 1–11
0% 99%
0.02
Oct 12 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2–4
12% 77%
0.37
Oct 18 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 13–3
93% 3%
0.11
Oct 18 Boston Jr Dogs @ Providence 5–0
91% 4%
0.13
Oct 18 Team Merrimack @ Young Guns 11–1
96% 2%
0.06
Oct 19 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs 1–11
1% 98%
0.03
Oct 19 Team Boston @ Minuteman Sparks 3–5
66% 23%
2.15
Oct 19 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 0–5
7% 85%
0.23
Oct 26 Minuteman Sparks @ South Shore Knights 5–11
36% 50%
1.01
Nov 01 South Shore Knights @ Providence 2–10
24% 64%
0.63
Nov 01 Boston Jr Dogs @ Young Guns 5–3
93% 3%
0.10
Nov 01 Minuteman Sparks @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–12
1% 97%
0.04
Nov 02 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack 2–6
0% 100%
0.00
Nov 02 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–8
2% 96%
0.05
Nov 02 Providence @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–5
9% 82%
0.28
Nov 02 Young Guns @ Minuteman Sparks 13–3
64% 23%
0.64
Nov 08 Team Boston @ Young Guns 1–11
28% 58%
0.78
Nov 08 Team Merrimack @ Providence 9–1
96% 2%
0.07
Nov 09 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Team Merrimack 0–7
16% 72%
0.48
Nov 09 Young Guns @ Team Boston 11–3
67% 21%
0.57
Nov 15 Providence @ Young Guns 4–4
32% 54%
2.89 UPSET
Nov 15 Team Merrimack @ Team Boston 11–1
100% 0%
0.01
Nov 15 Minuteman Sparks @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 1–6
1% 98%
0.02
Nov 15 Boston Jr Dogs @ South Shore Knights 11–1
97% 1%
0.05
Nov 16 Young Guns @ Team Merrimack 2–6
1% 97%
0.05
Nov 16 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr Dogs 3–3
25% 59%
2.69 UPSET
Nov 16 Minuteman Sparks @ Providence 1–8
7% 88%
0.19
Nov 16 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 1–4
42% 44%
1.18
Nov 22 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Team Boston 4–3
92% 4%
0.12
Nov 22 Providence @ South Shore Knights 10–5
72% 17%
0.46
Nov 23 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Boston 3–9
21% 68%
0.55
Nov 23 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs 4–6
0% 99%
0.02
Nov 23 Team Merrimack @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 9–4
75% 13%
0.42
Nov 23 Boston Jr Dogs @ South Shore Knights 12–2
97% 1%
0.04
Nov 29 South Shore Knights @ Young Guns 1–9
11% 80%
0.32
Nov 29 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 8–2
96% 2%
0.05
Nov 29 Providence @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–11
14% 76%
0.40
Nov 30 Team Boston @ Young Guns 2–10
13% 78%
0.35
Nov 30 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 1–9
2% 95%
0.07
Dec 06 Young Guns @ Minuteman Sparks 6–5
93% 4%
0.11
Dec 06 Providence @ Team Merrimack 3–7
1% 98%
0.03
Dec 07 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Merrimack 0–10
0% 100%
0.00
Dec 07 Team Boston @ Providence 3–7
16% 74%
0.43
Dec 13 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 9–2
98% 1%
0.03
Dec 13 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 1–11
33% 54%
0.90
Dec 13 Young Guns @ Providence 4–4
50% 36%
2.90
Dec 13 Young Guns @ Providence 6–5
50% 37%
1.01
Dec 13 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack 4–3
19% 69%
2.40
Dec 14 Team Boston @ Minuteman Sparks 9–1
67% 22%
0.58
Dec 14 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs 4–4
8% 85%
3.82 UPSET
Dec 14 Team Merrimack @ South Shore Knights 11–1
100% 0%
0.00
Dec 20 Team Merrimack @ Minuteman Sparks 10–0
100% 0%
0.00
Dec 20 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr Dogs 3–3
28% 57%
2.73 UPSET
Dec 20 Providence @ Team Boston 4–9
63% 25%
1.99
Dec 21 Providence @ Minuteman Sparks 11–1
87% 7%
0.20
Dec 21 Team Merrimack @ Boston Jr Dogs 10–2
63% 23%
0.67
Dec 21 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 4–7
4% 91%
0.14
Dec 21 South Shore Knights @ Minuteman Sparks 4–8
54% 32%
1.63
Dec 27 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Providence 5–3
76% 14%
0.39
Dec 27 Team Merrimack @ Minuteman Sparks 9–1
100% 0%
0.00
Dec 28 Minuteman Sparks @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–3
0% 100%
0.01
Dec 28 Team Merrimack @ Providence 8–4
97% 2%
0.05
Jan 03 South Shore Knights @ Minuteman Sparks 4–2
46% 40%
1.11
Jan 03 Young Guns @ Team Boston 4–3
69% 20%
0.53
Jan 04 Team Boston @ South Shore Knights 6–6
68% 21%
3.19 UPSET
Jan 10 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–6
5% 90%
0.14
Jan 10 Young Guns @ South Shore Knights 5–0
86% 7%
0.21
Jan 10 Boston Jr Dogs @ Providence 8–1
82% 10%
0.28
Jan 11 Team Merrimack @ Team Boston 8–1
99% 0%
0.02
Jan 11 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Young Guns 8–1
65% 22%
0.63
Jan 11 Providence @ South Shore Knights 6–5
82% 11%
0.28
Jan 17 Team Merrimack @ Boston Jr Dogs 3–0
68% 19%
0.55
Jan 17 Minuteman Sparks @ Young Guns 1–11
4% 93%
0.11
Jan 18 Team Merrimack @ Young Guns 11–1
92% 4%
0.12
Jan 18 Boston Jr Dogs @ Minuteman Sparks 9–0
99% 0%
0.01
Jan 24 Providence @ Minuteman Sparks 11–2
88% 6%
0.18
Jan 24 South Shore Knights @ Young Guns 6–11
6% 89%
0.17
Jan 24 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 9–4
93% 4%
0.11
Jan 24 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Team Merrimack 0–2
11% 78%
0.35
Jan 25 Providence @ Boston Jr Dogs 3–11
7% 88%
0.19
Jan 31 Minuteman Sparks @ Young Guns 1–11
3% 94%
0.08
Jan 31 Team Boston @ Providence 6–8
24% 66%
0.60
Jan 31 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 1–2
1% 97%
0.04
Jan 31 Team Merrimack @ Boston Jr Dogs 4–2
70% 17%
0.51
Jan 31 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–12
1% 96%
0.05
Feb 01 Boston Jr Dogs @ Young Guns 10–1
76% 14%
0.39
Feb 01 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Merrimack 1–11
0% 100%
0.00
Feb 01 South Shore Knights @ Providence 5–5
8% 86%
4.04 UPSET
Feb 01 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Team Boston 8–0
88% 6%
0.18
Feb 06 Young Guns @ Team Merrimack 1–11
2% 96%
0.06
Feb 07 Team Boston @ Team Merrimack 2–9
0% 100%
0.01
Feb 07 Providence @ Minuteman Sparks 7–4
90% 6%
0.15
Feb 07 Team Boston @ Team Merrimack 2–10
0% 99%
0.01
Feb 07 Boston Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 6–5
46% 37%
1.12
Feb 07 South Shore Knights @ Young Guns 9–4
7% 88%
3.87 UPSET
Feb 08 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–8
2% 96%
0.06
Feb 08 Young Guns @ Providence 2–3
47% 40%
1.32
Feb 08 Minuteman Sparks @ South Shore Knights 5–11
22% 67%
0.58
Feb 14 Providence @ Team Merrimack 4–9
1% 98%
0.03
Feb 15 Providence @ Boston Jr Dogs 5–11
5% 90%
0.14
Feb 15 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Boston 4–10
10% 83%
0.28
Feb 21 Boston Jr Dogs @ Minuteman Sparks 10–0
99% 0%
0.01
Feb 21 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack 3–7
0% 100%
0.00
Feb 21 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Providence 9–5
80% 11%
0.32
Feb 22 Team Merrimack @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 5–1
72% 16%
0.48
Feb 22 Team Boston @ South Shore Knights 4–7
57% 31%
1.69
Feb 22 Minuteman Sparks @ Providence 4–12
4% 93%
0.10
Feb 22 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs 0–7
7% 87%
0.21