The Sheet

What is Surprisal? Surprisal measures how surprising a result was, based on pre-game probabilities. 0 bits = perfectly predicted. 3+ bits = major upset. A result is flagged as an UPSET when surprisal exceeds 2.5 bits.

Standings

# Team GP W L T GF GA PTS Champ %
1 Team Merrimack 35 34 1 0 289 56 68 100%
2 Boston Jr Dogs 35 27 4 4 241 89 58 0%
3 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 33 21 8 4 194 91 46 0%
4 Young Guns 33 14 16 3 156 167 31 0%
5 Providence 35 13 17 5 174 200 31 0%
6 Team Boston 35 9 23 3 135 224 21 0%
7 South Shore Knights 34 5 26 3 115 250 13 0%
8 Minuteman Sparks 34 3 31 0 80 307 6 0%

Projected Finish

How the rest of the season could play out — remaining games are simulated with home ice and rating uncertainty, then finishing positions are tallied. Ranges show the likely spread, not a single guaranteed rank. An analytical model for discussion, not advice.

# Team Proj. Finish Win Division Proj. Points
1 Team Merrimack 1 100% 68 (68–68)
2 Boston Jr Dogs 2 <1% 58 (58–58)
3 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 3 <1% 50 (48–50)
4 Young Guns 4 <1% 31 (31–33)
5 Providence 5 <1% 31 (31–31)
6 Team Boston 6 <1% 21 (21–21)
7 South Shore Knights 7 <1% 15 (13–15)
8 Minuteman Sparks 8 <1% 6 (6–8)

Game Log

Oldest first
Date Matchup Score Pre-game Probability Surprisal Flag
Aug 01 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Minuteman Sparks @ South Shore Knights Upcoming 50/50 —
Aug 01 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Young Guns Upcoming 50/50 —
Sep 06 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 11–1 50/50 —
Sep 07 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–10 50/50 —
Sep 13 Young Guns @ South Shore Knights 4–3 50/50 —
Sep 13 Team Boston @ Team Merrimack 0–10 50/50 —
Sep 13 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 11–1 50/50 —
Sep 13 Boston Jr Dogs @ Providence 8–5 50/50 —
Sep 14 Team Merrimack @ South Shore Knights 9–1 50/50 —
Sep 14 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Boston 4–7 50/50 —
Sep 20 Providence @ Young Guns 5–4 50/50 —
Sep 20 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack 4–7 50/50 —
Sep 20 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ South Shore Knights 10–1 50/50 —
Sep 21 Minuteman Sparks @ Boston Jr Dogs 1–11 50/50 —
Sep 21 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–7 50/50 —
Sep 27 Minuteman Sparks @ Young Guns 4–3
13% 78%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
2.90 UPSET
Sep 27 Providence @ Team Boston 5–5 50/50 —
Sep 27 Boston Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–2
34% 54%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
3.04 UPSET
Sep 27 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack 0–10
1% 98%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.02
Sep 28 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs 1–6
3% 93%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.11
Sep 28 Team Boston @ South Shore Knights 6–5
56% 31%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.83
Sep 28 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Providence 7–2
86% 8%
⚠ Fewer than 20 games in training sample
0.22
Oct 04 Providence @ South Shore Knights 5–3
75% 16%
0.41
Oct 04 Team Merrimack @ Young Guns 12–2
94% 3%
0.09
Oct 04 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 4–3
2% 96%
5.87 UPSET
Oct 05 Team Merrimack @ Providence 9–1
95% 2%
0.07
Oct 05 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ South Shore Knights 4–4
95% 2%
5.07 UPSET
Oct 05 Young Guns @ Team Boston 4–1
28% 59%
1.82
Oct 11 Team Merrimack @ Minuteman Sparks 11–2
100% 0%
0.01
Oct 11 Providence @ Team Boston 3–3
51% 36%
2.95
Oct 11 Boston Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–1
52% 34%
0.96
Oct 12 Minuteman Sparks @ Boston Jr Dogs 1–11
1% 98%
0.02
Oct 12 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Team Merrimack 2–4
14% 76%
0.39
Oct 18 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 13–3
95% 2%
0.08
Oct 18 Boston Jr Dogs @ Providence 5–0
91% 5%
0.14
Oct 18 Team Merrimack @ Young Guns 11–1
98% 1%
0.03
Oct 19 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs 1–11
1% 97%
0.04
Oct 19 Team Boston @ Minuteman Sparks 3–5
63% 26%
1.96
Oct 19 Young Guns @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 0–5
4% 92%
0.12
Oct 26 Minuteman Sparks @ South Shore Knights 5–11
35% 52%
0.94
Nov 01 South Shore Knights @ Providence 2–10
27% 61%
0.71
Nov 01 Boston Jr Dogs @ Young Guns 5–3
95% 2%
0.07
Nov 01 Minuteman Sparks @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–12
1% 98%
0.03
Nov 02 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack 2–6
0% 100%
0.01
Nov 02 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–8
2% 96%
0.06
Nov 02 Providence @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–5
8% 85%
0.24
Nov 02 Young Guns @ Minuteman Sparks 13–3
60% 28%
0.74
Nov 08 Team Boston @ Young Guns 1–11
30% 56%
0.84
Nov 08 Team Merrimack @ Providence 9–1
95% 2%
0.07
Nov 09 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Team Merrimack 0–7
16% 72%
0.48
Nov 09 Young Guns @ Team Boston 11–3
66% 22%
0.61
Nov 15 Providence @ Young Guns 4–4
35% 51%
2.93
Nov 15 Team Merrimack @ Team Boston 11–1
100% 0%
0.01
Nov 15 Minuteman Sparks @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 1–6
0% 99%
0.02
Nov 15 Boston Jr Dogs @ South Shore Knights 11–1
96% 2%
0.06
Nov 16 Young Guns @ Team Merrimack 2–6
1% 98%
0.04
Nov 16 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr Dogs 3–3
26% 60%
2.78 UPSET
Nov 16 Minuteman Sparks @ Providence 1–8
8% 86%
0.21
Nov 16 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 1–4
48% 39%
1.35
Nov 22 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Team Boston 4–3
93% 3%
0.11
Nov 22 Providence @ South Shore Knights 10–5
70% 20%
0.52
Nov 23 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Boston 3–9
23% 66%
0.60
Nov 23 South Shore Knights @ Boston Jr Dogs 4–6
1% 98%
0.02
Nov 23 Team Merrimack @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 9–4
76% 13%
0.40
Nov 23 Boston Jr Dogs @ South Shore Knights 12–2
97% 2%
0.05
Nov 29 South Shore Knights @ Young Guns 1–9
13% 78%
0.36
Nov 29 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 8–2
96% 2%
0.06
Nov 29 Providence @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–11
14% 76%
0.39
Nov 30 Team Boston @ Young Guns 2–10
14% 77%
0.37
Nov 30 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 1–9
2% 95%
0.07
Dec 06 Young Guns @ Minuteman Sparks 6–5
92% 4%
0.12
Dec 06 Providence @ Team Merrimack 3–7
1% 98%
0.03
Dec 07 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Merrimack 0–10
0% 100%
0.00
Dec 07 Team Boston @ Providence 3–7
16% 74%
0.43
Dec 13 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Minuteman Sparks 9–2
98% 1%
0.03
Dec 13 South Shore Knights @ Team Boston 1–11
36% 51%
0.98
Dec 13 Young Guns @ Providence 4–4
48% 39%
2.94
Dec 13 Young Guns @ Providence 6–5
48% 39%
1.07
Dec 13 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Merrimack 4–3
20% 68%
2.35
Dec 14 Team Boston @ Minuteman Sparks 9–1
65% 24%
0.63
Dec 14 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs 4–4
7% 87%
4.04 UPSET
Dec 14 Team Merrimack @ South Shore Knights 11–1
100% 0%
0.00
Dec 20 Team Merrimack @ Minuteman Sparks 10–0
100% 0%
0.00
Dec 20 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Boston Jr Dogs 3–3
28% 58%
2.80 UPSET
Dec 20 Providence @ Team Boston 4–9
63% 26%
1.97
Dec 21 Providence @ Minuteman Sparks 11–1
86% 8%
0.22
Dec 21 Team Merrimack @ Boston Jr Dogs 10–2
62% 24%
0.68
Dec 21 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 4–7
4% 91%
0.13
Dec 21 South Shore Knights @ Minuteman Sparks 4–8
56% 31%
1.68
Dec 27 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Providence 5–3
77% 14%
0.38
Dec 27 Team Merrimack @ Minuteman Sparks 9–1
100% 0%
0.00
Dec 28 Minuteman Sparks @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–3
0% 99%
0.01
Dec 28 Team Merrimack @ Providence 8–4
96% 2%
0.05
Jan 03 South Shore Knights @ Minuteman Sparks 4–2
47% 40%
1.08
Jan 03 Young Guns @ Team Boston 4–3
68% 21%
0.55
Jan 04 Team Boston @ South Shore Knights 6–6
66% 23%
3.16 UPSET
Jan 10 Team Boston @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–6
4% 91%
0.14
Jan 10 Young Guns @ South Shore Knights 5–0
86% 8%
0.23
Jan 10 Boston Jr Dogs @ Providence 8–1
82% 10%
0.28
Jan 11 Team Merrimack @ Team Boston 8–1
99% 0%
0.02
Jan 11 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Young Guns 8–1
68% 20%
0.56
Jan 11 Providence @ South Shore Knights 6–5
81% 12%
0.31
Jan 17 Team Merrimack @ Boston Jr Dogs 3–0
68% 20%
0.56
Jan 17 Minuteman Sparks @ Young Guns 1–11
4% 92%
0.12
Jan 18 Team Merrimack @ Young Guns 11–1
93% 3%
0.10
Jan 18 Boston Jr Dogs @ Minuteman Sparks 9–0
99% 0%
0.02
Jan 24 Providence @ Minuteman Sparks 11–2
88% 7%
0.19
Jan 24 South Shore Knights @ Young Guns 6–11
7% 88%
0.19
Jan 24 Boston Jr Dogs @ Team Boston 9–4
92% 4%
0.11
Jan 24 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Team Merrimack 0–2
11% 79%
0.33
Jan 25 Providence @ Boston Jr Dogs 3–11
7% 88%
0.19
Jan 31 Minuteman Sparks @ Young Guns 1–11
3% 94%
0.09
Jan 31 Team Boston @ Providence 6–8
24% 66%
0.61
Jan 31 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 1–2
1% 97%
0.04
Jan 31 Team Merrimack @ Boston Jr Dogs 4–2
70% 18%
0.51
Jan 31 South Shore Knights @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 2–12
1% 97%
0.05
Feb 01 Boston Jr Dogs @ Young Guns 10–1
78% 13%
0.35
Feb 01 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Merrimack 1–11
0% 100%
0.00
Feb 01 South Shore Knights @ Providence 5–5
9% 84%
3.97 UPSET
Feb 01 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Team Boston 8–0
89% 6%
0.17
Feb 06 Young Guns @ Team Merrimack 1–11
1% 97%
0.05
Feb 07 Team Boston @ Team Merrimack 2–9
0% 99%
0.01
Feb 07 Providence @ Minuteman Sparks 7–4
89% 6%
0.16
Feb 07 Team Boston @ Team Merrimack 2–10
0% 99%
0.01
Feb 07 Boston Jr Dogs @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 6–5
46% 38%
1.11
Feb 07 South Shore Knights @ Young Guns 9–4
8% 86%
3.69 UPSET
Feb 08 Team Boston @ Boston Jr Dogs 2–8
2% 96%
0.06
Feb 08 Young Guns @ Providence 2–3
46% 42%
1.25
Feb 08 Minuteman Sparks @ South Shore Knights 5–11
21% 68%
0.55
Feb 14 Providence @ Team Merrimack 4–9
1% 98%
0.03
Feb 15 Providence @ Boston Jr Dogs 5–11
5% 90%
0.15
Feb 15 Minuteman Sparks @ Team Boston 4–10
11% 82%
0.29
Feb 21 Boston Jr Dogs @ Minuteman Sparks 10–0
99% 0%
0.01
Feb 21 South Shore Knights @ Team Merrimack 3–7
0% 100%
0.00
Feb 21 Bay State Waves 2017 Elite @ Providence 9–5
81% 11%
0.30
Feb 22 Team Merrimack @ Bay State Waves 2017 Elite 5–1
72% 16%
0.47
Feb 22 Team Boston @ South Shore Knights 4–7
55% 33%
1.60
Feb 22 Minuteman Sparks @ Providence 4–12
4% 93%
0.11
Feb 22 Young Guns @ Boston Jr Dogs 0–7
6% 88%
0.18