TOURNAMENT
FINAL
Pool A · Feb 28, 2026
Young Guns
3–8
Team Merrimack
Current model vs. Result
152 games in sample
Calculated from the current model; not a stored pre-game forecast
Young Guns 1.4%
Draw 2.0%
96.6% Team Merrimack
Favored
Draw
Underdog
As expected
0.05 bits
Lower predicted probability means a more surprising result.
This band describes outcome probability; the UPSET badge separately identifies an upset winner.
Score Probability Matrix
Probability of each scoreline — rows = Young Guns, columns = Team Merrimack.
Scores of 0–7 cover 100.0% of outcomes.